Future forecasting

Sidosryhm- ja riskianalyysi

FUTURE FORECASTING

Kimmo HaapeaAnne-Marie TuomalaProject management skills

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Anticipating the futures Being prepared for various futures

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IMPORTANCE TO BUILD UP THE BIG PICTURE OF THE FUTUREProject management skills3

For knowledge is limited to all we now know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know and understand.

Imagination is more important than knowledge.

Projektiosaaminen T549SN4

Why to think about the future when we cannot predict it?Be prepared for various futures (anticipation)

Innovating the futures and breaking our mental models

Communicating and discussion about futures with shareholders -> STRATEGY

What future forecasting means? (1)Project management skills

5 We can make influence on our own future, by making correct choices we can make possibilities as reality.

Future forecasting enables to keep up belief in the future. (Source: Tulevaisuusluotain, 2006, p. 2)

Project management skills

6What future forecasting means? (2)Future forecasting is not to predict, it is..

A systematic way to collect future related information for the decision making. The used methods are close to future research methods.

It is activities that tries to build optional futures and to be prepared to them.

It is based on the analysis of the present and of the past

What future forecasting means? (3)


7Future forecasting also means to trial to influence on the future but also to manage insecurity

Future forecasting operations are systematic, but participatory process, where the information is collected, assessed and analyzed and is crated visions for the mid-term and long-term

The main purpose is to improve and enlarge the knowledge basis of the current decision making.

What future forecasting means? (4)


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The basic content of the future forecasting

To describe the future, to create, develop and utilize analyzing methods

To produce, search, manage, edit, analyze and report the future related information

Future work of various organizations

Macroscenarios (Shell)Consumer scenarios (Philips, Sony Ericsson)Reports on various topics (Siemens, IBM)Futures teasers(Philips Design, VW)

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TIME SEQUENCES OF THE FUTURE FORECASTINGProject management skills

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TIME SCALE OF TIME SEQUENCESProject management skills

11SHORT (1/2 2 y.)Rapid changes in economy and in labour markets (barometers and opinion surveys)

MID-TERM (25 y.)Strategy building, technology forecasts, education planning

LONG-TERM (5-15 y.)Megatrend, Scenario buildingPopulation growth forecasts

WHAT SHOULD BE KNOWN ABOUT THE PHENOMENON IN STARTING PHASE??Project management skills

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13First it is to know the current situation, present time and historical issues, which have created the current the current situation (e.g. SWOT analysis is used for analyses)

It is essential to identify the change drivers of operating environment and make conclusions out of that (e.g. PESTEL analysis)

Change drivers may create and success stories and threat scenarios.

TRIANGLE CONCEPT OF MAKING FUTURE FORECASTINGProject management skills

14* OPEN *PARTICIPATORY*ACTION ORIENTATEDDebating the futureShaping the futureThinking the future

EXAMPLE TOOLS FOR FUTURE FORECASTINGDigging up the non-obviousProject management skills

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Some concepts of the future

FadTrendMegatrend

duration

Weak SignalsWild cards

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Weak signal (1)Project management skills

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New or yet to be born phenomenonAble to create radically influencing processes in the future Exists only a short moment every now and thenMay create a trendIt is assumed that the finder is in the better position to prepare for the future Business life is active in searching weak signals as many success stories have been born like this

Weak signals Signals of new emerging issues that can become big trends in the future- or then not

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Weak signal (2)Project management skills

19In general, the characteristics of weak signal is that it is strange, an odd thing. An average persons is avoiding it, because a weak signal comes outside the existing systems and truths..

It is worth to remind, that nearly all important, technological or economical or society reforms have originally been freaks.

A WEAK SIGNAL CAN BE WHEREEVER, WHATEVER, WHENEVER. THERE IS NO CLEAR CONSLUSION ABOUT THE CONTENT.

Weak signal(4)Project management skills

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According to the analysis of Coffman (1997) a weak signal is

an idea or a trend, which has an influence either on a company or its operating environment new and surprising from the receiver point of view sometimes hard to recognize because of the other signals and meaningless common noise a treat and a possibility, depending on the company mostly underestimated from the experts point of view a delay time is natural for a weak signal until maturing and becoming mainstream enables to learn, to develop and to be developed

A weak signal test

1. Makes your colleagues to laugh2. Your friends are opposing it:no way, it will never happen 3. Makes people to wonder4. No one has heard about it before5. It is wanted that no-one talks about it anymore (a tabu)1-5 ticks and it is a weak signal!

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Different kinds of weak signalsTechnological weak signals innovationsSocial weak signals something is done differently, a change in accustomed

Stay hungry, stay foolish

Where do we find them?Surfing in the InternetSocial mediaBlogs, blogs and blogsKeep your eyes and ears open everywhere, mobilephone with camera in the other handreporting about weak signals

MEGATRENDS CREATE BIG PICTURE OF THE FUTURE TENDENCIES WHICH ARE VALID ABOUT 10 15 YEARS FROM NOW ON


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Megatrendsare big trends that concern a lot of peopleAgeing of big age groups

Globalization

NetworkingSource: http://www.cartoonweb.com/

Technological development

Increase of the use of social mediaIncrease of distance workIncrease of use of renewable energy sourcesIncrease of single person householdsIncrease of use of mobile phonesTRENDsIncrease of ?



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www.taiwanforesight.org

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32Other cross-cutting megatrends Increasing mobility Networked world Womens position Population related megatrends Growth of population Ageing Urbanization Migration

Market related megatrends Globalization Rising BRIC countries Transparency Ethical consumptionNature related megatrends Scarcity of natural resources Global climate change Local environmental problems

Society related megatrends Time pressure of individuals Freedom of choices Middle class growth Changing family structuresBRIC countries are Brazil, Russia, India and China


2017

Where megatrends are used?Project management skills

34Business and public organizations utilize megatrends in their strategies

Megatrends are to help building up scenarios

PESTEL-analysis for the assessment of external environmentProject management skills

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Define the issue or phenonemon what you are going to assess

Record the political, environmental, social, technological, economic and legal issues which you suppose to have impact in the future development

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Exercise 1. Pair work:Make a PESTEL-analysisProject management skills

36Optional topics (choose one):

Use of solar energy in Finland

ICT development in building sector

Grey wolf population in Finland

Growing amount of single persons households

Green mining

PESTEL SHEETPOLITICALENVIRONMENTAL SOCIALTECHNO-LOGICALECONOMICLEGAL12345


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SCENARIOSHelp to find the glue of the manuscript of the futureProject management skills

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UTILIZING SCENARIO IN STRATEGY BUILDINGProject management skills

39PHASES 1. Assessing the present, by SWOT, resource assessment, defining values, hopes, fears and goals and weak signals are observed2. Create 3-5 optional scenarios3. Create a vision of a company/organization4. Create a mission, which is a clause of the track how the vision is achieved5. Scenario process is repeated time to time as the external environment is rapidly changing6. The scenarios should always be wide enough

ROLE OF SCENARIOProject management skills

40A typical assumption and mistake is that the scenarios are seen as results of the future forecasting. Scenarios are just tools for the strategic decision making and for the selection of alternative operational models. SCENARIO IS NOT A RESULT.

Scenario is one selected picture of the future, one of the possible ones.


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ONE SCENARIO SHOULD BE SELECTED TO MAKE VISION AND OTHER STRATEGY TASKS AND PLANNING

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THEY KEY DRIVERS OF THE CHANGE MANAGEMENT IN GREEN ECONOMYAccording to Jared DiamondProject management skills

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Jared Diamonds possible future An American evolution biologist Jared Diamond, a Professor of Geography at the University of California, Los AngelesA book: Collapse : how societies choose to fall or succeed , 2005. He says the cultures have propensity to exploit their environment and the existence of culture might be shaken. In worst case the situation may lead to the ecocide, an environmental suicide of the culture as the culture and environment are inseparable.New cultures born to replace


43http://www.edge.org/memberbio/jared_diamond

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44Keys for the management of the future according to Jared Diamond

Navigating onenvironmental technology mapSource: Sitra reports 61, Ympristteknologian ennakointi, Taustoja ja puheenvuorojaProject management skills

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PARADOXICAL RULEProject management skills

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The professional environmental technology forecasting concentrates less to the environment and less to the technology WHY???


47Environmental technology:Wireless technologyProcess technologyChemistryBiotechnologyNanotechnologyElectronicsAutomation

The technology is environmental technology if it is used to improve the environmental protection

To where Finland should navigate with cleantech?Options according to the Sitra report:OPTIONAL ROUTES TO THE EXPORT MARKETS1. Nordenskild route Russia and toxics focus2. Vasco da Gama route India and water focus3. Marco Polo route China and energy focus


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Attitudes are burdens for the utilization of the future forecasting informationProject management skills

49Do you recognize comments like:

That cannot be doneThat is stupidThat is not mentioned in the rulesThat is against guidelinesWe dont have budget for thatWe dont have time.That will never be acceptedThat is not what is requiredAre you joking?

TO CONCLUDEAs the uncertainty of the future is increasing and, at the same time, attempts and expectations for the future are increasing as well, there is growing demand towards future forecasting knowledge. More and more project ideas, business ideas and development ideas are put under the social microscope. Project management skills

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TrendWikiwnc.trendwiki.fia tool for organizations for collecting futures information

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Future forecasting

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