BackgroundBackground• Changes in age group populationsChanges in age group populations• Changes in lifestyleChanges in lifestyle• Reduction in infectious diseasesReduction in infectious diseases• Increase in degenerative diseasesIncrease in degenerative diseases• Government set dietary targetsGovernment set dietary targets• Concerns about health claims and regulationConcerns about health claims and regulation• A new dimension of well being controlled by dietA new dimension of well being controlled by diet

Terms of ReferenceTerms of Reference

• To construct a vision that anticipates To construct a vision that anticipates opportunities and hurdles for future foods for opportunities and hurdles for future foods for wellbeing over the next 25 yearswellbeing over the next 25 years

• Consider the influences on consumer, industry Consider the influences on consumer, industry and government responses to the emerging and government responses to the emerging science that underlies foods for wellbeingscience that underlies foods for wellbeing

• Produce a document that includes alternative Produce a document that includes alternative scenarios, discusses key variables and scenarios, discusses key variables and highlights opportunities and obstacleshighlights opportunities and obstacles

Group MembershipGroup Membership

• John YoungJohn Young Leatherhead IntLeatherhead Int

• Mike BuchananMike Buchanan Marks & SpencerMarks & Spencer

• Helen ConnHelen Conn Forum HoldingsForum Holdings

• Jack WinklerJack Winkler Food & HealthFood & Health

ResearchResearch

• Fiona AngusFiona Angus Leatherhead IntLeatherhead Int

• Tanya FootmanTanya Footman IGDIGD

Group VisionGroup Vision

• SocialSocial

• EconomicEconomic

• Science/MedicineScience/Medicine

• TechnologyTechnology

• GovernmentGovernment

• HealthcareHealthcare

• Education/TrainingEducation/Training

• Agriculture/FisheriesAgriculture/Fisheries

• ManufacturingManufacturing

• RetailingRetailing• CommunicationCommunication

Delphi SurveyDelphi Survey

• An exercise in group communication An exercise in group communication among a panel of geographically among a panel of geographically dispersed expertsdispersed experts

• Used to assess the direction of long term Used to assess the direction of long term trends with an emphasis on science and trends with an emphasis on science and technologytechnology

• Bypasses the problems of group dynamics Bypasses the problems of group dynamics through anonymity and controlled through anonymity and controlled feedbackfeedback

Delphi SurveyDelphi Survey

• Formation of the survey teamFormation of the survey team• Selection of the expert panelSelection of the expert panel• Development of 1st Round QuestionnaireDevelopment of 1st Round Questionnaire• Analysis of responsesAnalysis of responses• Preparation of 2nd Round QuestionnairePreparation of 2nd Round Questionnaire• Analysis of responsesAnalysis of responses• Preparation of 3rd Round Ranking ExercisePreparation of 3rd Round Ranking Exercise• Analysis of responsesAnalysis of responses

Expert PanelExpert Panel• AcademicAcademic

• ScienceScience

• IndustryIndustry

• Consumer InterestConsumer Interest

• LegislatorsLegislators

• Media/JournalismMedia/Journalism

• E.U. and E.U. and International basedInternational based

Expert PanelExpert Panel

• Dr Margaret Ashwell OBEDr Margaret Ashwell OBE• Prof Janet BainbridgeProf Janet Bainbridge• Dr Liam BreslinDr Liam Breslin• Dr Judy ButrissDr Judy Butriss• Dr Claire ChapmanDr Claire Chapman• Prof Anthony ClaytonProf Anthony Clayton• Dr Paul ClaytonDr Paul Clayton• Ms Carol CulhaneMs Carol Culhane• Dr Mark LawrenceDr Mark Lawrence• Mrs Dorothy MackenzieMrs Dorothy Mackenzie• Prof Vincent MarksProf Vincent Marks

• Prof John MarshProf John Marsh• Prof Ian McConnelProf Ian McConnel• Dr Noel OlsenDr Noel Olsen• Mr Adrian Penrose Mr Adrian Penrose

(on behalf of MRC)(on behalf of MRC)• Francoise PestretFrancoise Pestret• Prof Keith SingleteryProf Keith Singletery• Prof Sean StrainProf Sean Strain• Peter WennstromPeter Wennstrom• Prof Christine WilliamsProf Christine Williams• Mr Simon Wright Mr Simon Wright

Con’sCon’s

• A method of last resort in dealing with A method of last resort in dealing with extremely complex problemsextremely complex problems

• Results are dependent on the experts Results are dependent on the experts chosenchosen

• Results are dependent on the structure of Results are dependent on the structure of the questions askedthe questions asked

• Current events are seen as more relevant Current events are seen as more relevant than future eventsthan future events

Pro’sPro’s

• Recognizes judgement as legitimate in Recognizes judgement as legitimate in generating forecastsgenerating forecasts

• Makes the best of less than perfect Makes the best of less than perfect informationinformation

• Overcomes the disadvantages of Overcomes the disadvantages of conventional committee proceduresconventional committee procedures

• Effective even when used in small groups Effective even when used in small groups

Round One QuestionnaireRound One Questionnaire

• Identify what the major issues and Identify what the major issues and influences will be.influences will be.

• Some areas of general agreementSome areas of general agreement

• Strongly held individual viewsStrongly held individual views

• Some directly opposed viewsSome directly opposed views

Areas of General AgreementAreas of General Agreement

““Changing patterns of work and the Changing patterns of work and the ageing population will have a ageing population will have a profound effect”profound effect”

““A focus on wellbeing incorporating A focus on wellbeing incorporating ethical components such as Fair ethical components such as Fair Trade”Trade”

Areas of General AgreementAreas of General Agreement

““An increased division between the money An increased division between the money rich, time poor and technically rich, time poor and technically enfranchised on the one hand and the enfranchised on the one hand and the under and unemployed on the other”under and unemployed on the other”

““An increase in predictive medicine with An increase in predictive medicine with prevention rather than cure”prevention rather than cure”

Areas of General AgreementAreas of General Agreement

““Education about food and nutrition to Education about food and nutrition to become a major learning area for adults become a major learning area for adults and children”and children”

““The general negative attitude of the The general negative attitude of the educational establishment and the media educational establishment and the media to agriculture and large scale food to agriculture and large scale food production will not change leading to production will not change leading to increased problems in recruitment”increased problems in recruitment”

Areas of General AgreementAreas of General Agreement

““Education of what constitutes a healthy Education of what constitutes a healthy lifestyle and healthy eating is the most lifestyle and healthy eating is the most important of all considerations. Scientific, important of all considerations. Scientific, evidence based nutrition should be a evidence based nutrition should be a compulsory subject in schools”compulsory subject in schools”

Strong Individual BeliefsStrong Individual Beliefs

““The proportion of disposable income spent The proportion of disposable income spent on food has been going down but this woill on food has been going down but this woill reverse as food becomes more expensive”reverse as food becomes more expensive”

““International market liberalisation will lead International market liberalisation will lead to a fall in the cost of food”to a fall in the cost of food”

Strong Individual BeliefsStrong Individual Beliefs

““New Technologies will enable better New Technologies will enable better provision of bioavailable functional provision of bioavailable functional ingredients”ingredients”

Nutrigenomics will be one of the strongest Nutrigenomics will be one of the strongest scientific factors for future foods for scientific factors for future foods for wellbeing”wellbeing”

Strong Individual BeliefsStrong Individual Beliefs

““There will be an increase in demand for There will be an increase in demand for processed foods from the emerging Asian processed foods from the emerging Asian economies”economies”

““Proper protocols for clinical nutrient studies Proper protocols for clinical nutrient studies will develop resulting in more definitive will develop resulting in more definitive findings that will replace consumer findings that will replace consumer cynicism with confidence”cynicism with confidence”

Strong Individual BeliefsStrong Individual Beliefs

““There will be the introduction of a Fat Tax There will be the introduction of a Fat Tax on bad foods”on bad foods”

The Common Agriculture Policy will cease to The Common Agriculture Policy will cease to exist in it’s current form along with exist in it’s current form along with wholesale production subsidies”wholesale production subsidies”

Opposing ViewsOpposing Views

““Personalised functional foods according to Personalised functional foods according to genotype will be offered on retail websites”genotype will be offered on retail websites”

““The development of functional foods will not The development of functional foods will not be sustained, the influence of nutrition on be sustained, the influence of nutrition on diet is lifelong”diet is lifelong”

““The move to functional foods will take off The move to functional foods will take off and foods without health claims will be and foods without health claims will be disadvantaged”disadvantaged”

Opposing ViewsOpposing Views

““Within Europe, GM foods will continue to be Within Europe, GM foods will continue to be resisted by consumers”resisted by consumers”

““GMO’s will become an important source of GMO’s will become an important source of foods”foods”

Opposing ViewsOpposing Views

““Honesty in advertising and marketing”Honesty in advertising and marketing”

““More blatant lying by advertisers, More blatant lying by advertisers, marketeers and PR companies”marketeers and PR companies”

““Authoritative labelling of functional claims Authoritative labelling of functional claims help to restore confidence in health help to restore confidence in health claims”claims”

Round Two QuestionnaireRound Two Questionnaire

• Analysis of First Round responsesAnalysis of First Round responses

• Controlled feedback of the issues raisedControlled feedback of the issues raised

• Request for opinions on issued raisedRequest for opinions on issued raised

Round Three RankingRound Three Ranking

• Analysis of 2nd Round responsesAnalysis of 2nd Round responses

• Identification of 36 variables which will Identification of 36 variables which will have a major influencehave a major influence

• Construction of a ranking table to assess Construction of a ranking table to assess the relative importance of each variable the relative importance of each variable against anotheragainst another

Round Three Ranking First 3Round Three Ranking First 3

1.Continuing trend to obesity and associated 1.Continuing trend to obesity and associated diabetes.diabetes.

2.Food technology’s ability to enhance the 2.Food technology’s ability to enhance the health qualities of foods, including new health qualities of foods, including new delivery systems.delivery systems.

3.The regulatory structure which emerges to 3.The regulatory structure which emerges to govern all forms of communication about govern all forms of communication about future foods for wellbeing.future foods for wellbeing.

Round Three Ranking Last 3Round Three Ranking Last 3

34.The continued expansion of the Fast Food 34.The continued expansion of the Fast Food Industry.Industry.

35.Liberalisation of agricultural trade between 35.Liberalisation of agricultural trade between developed and developing worlds.developed and developing worlds.

36.The impact of climate change on what can 36.The impact of climate change on what can be grown in different countriesbe grown in different countries

Round Three Ranking DebateRound Three Ranking Debate

22.Future taxes on “unhealthy” foods and/or 22.Future taxes on “unhealthy” foods and/or subsidies for healthy foods.subsidies for healthy foods.

18.The changing economic participation of 18.The changing economic participation of women at work and in the home.women at work and in the home.

20.Increasing convergence of the 20.Increasing convergence of the pharmaceutical and food industriespharmaceutical and food industries