Future Energy Insights and Nuclear Power
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Transcript of Future Energy Insights and Nuclear Power
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Future Energy Insights and Nuclear Power
Mark Howells,Professor and head of the division of Energy Systems Analysis (KTH-dESA)
Royal Institute of Technology, SWEDEN
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division of Energy Systems AnalysisRoyal Institute of Technology,
Sweden
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Contents
Foundations of global energy system shifting
Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries
Retreat from nuclear in some others growth in others
Changing global energy map likely to have significant implications for competiveness & geopolitics
In a resource constrained world, nuclear has a key role to play
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A United States oil & gas transformation
US oil & gas production
The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications well beyond the United States
Unconventional gas
Conventional gas
Unconventional oil
Conventional oil
mboe/d
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
Source: World Energy Outlook
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De-coupling of regional gas prices
At its lowest level in 2012, natural gas in the United States tradedat around one-fifth of import prices in Europe & one-eighth of those in Japan
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
$201
2/M
Btu
US (Henry Hub)
Europe (German import)
Japan (LNG import)
Source: World Energy Outlook
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3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000TWh
2 000
A power shift to emerging economies
Need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in global demand, with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity
Change in power generation, 2010-2035
-1 000 0 1 000
Japan
European Union
United States
China
TWh
Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables
India
Source: World Energy Outlook
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Wide variations in the price of power
Electricity prices are set to increase with the highest prices persistingin the European Union & Japan, well above those in China & the United States
Average household electricity prices, 2035
5
10
15
20
25
China United States European Union Japan
cents/kWh
2011 Non-OECD average
2011 OECD average
Source: World Energy Outlook
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Insights from an Integrated Global CLEWS** Model
Aim: A flexible model with large solution space based on realistic projections.
• Demand projections for heat and electricity based on IEA ETP 6oC scenario – assumes no new policy action and continuance of current code of practice.
• Renewable energy technologies allowed (not forced) to come in at a rate corresponding to IEA ETP 2oC scenario – non-hydro or biomass RE increase 25fold by 2050, compared to 2009.
• CO2 limit based on IEA ETP 6oC scenario – did not want to limit the system.
• Yield improvement of land and food production based on FAO projections – food demand connected with population projections
**CLEWs – Climate Land Energy Water strategies modelDeveloped by UNDESA and KTH-dESA
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Total Power Generation
Global CLEWs model
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CO2 Tax Scenario
• Additional tax on emissions (GHG as CO2-equivalent) of: – Linear increase from 1 to 15 $/tCO2EQ in years
2016-2030– Linear increase from 15 to 25 $/tCO2EQ in years
2031-2050
• Land use emissions were approximated with a capital cost per land area
Global CLEWs model
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Main effects •Less coal•More biomass, gas and nuclear power •Renewables already at maximum market penetration
Power with CO2 tax
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• Land use change is responsible for over 30% of global CO2 emissions and it affects biodiversity, ecosystem services etc.
• Total land capacity was restricted to current area (no area exchange between climate zones possible)
• This meant a necessary intensification of agricultural production (more fertiliser and irrigation)
Land Limitation Scenario
Global CLEWs model
FAO. (2011). LOOKING AHEAD IN WORLD FOOD AND AGRICULTURE: Perspectives to 2050. (P. Conforti, Ed.).
Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
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Main effects •Biomass is more expensive or not available •Nuclear is only remaining low-emission power technology •Penetration rates for new technologies would need to be adapted •Other factors (like biomass from waste) are not considered
Power with Land Limitation and CO2 tax
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Nuclear Share Comparison
Global CLEWs model
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Conclusions
Policy makers face critical choices in reconciling energy, environmental & economic objectives
Changing outlook for energy production & use may redefineenergy pricing, economic competiveness & geopolitical balances
Shifting away from or towards nuclear can have significant implications for a country’s energy security, electricity prices & climate change objectives
In a resource constrained world, nuclear can be an attractive option
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IEA, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKUNDESA, GSDR
Acknowledgements