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  • Securing our nuclear future

    Presented to: University of Western Ontario

    Presented by: Duncan Hawthorne

    President & Chief Executive Officer

    September 28, 2006

  • 2

    Global Energy Factors

    • Increase in worldwide demand. • Security of supply concerns • Aging infrastructure • Market designs changing • Greater recognition of environmental concerns • Society preference for renewables… but changing !!!!

    Given this common set of global energy factors the need for new nuclear is clear. For this reason, the debate over new

    nuclear is taking place throughout the world.

  • 3

    Global Electricity Demand

    0

    5,000

    10,000

    15,000

    20,000

    25,000

    30,000

    2002 2010 2015 2020 2025

    *Billion Kilowatthours

    By 2025 electricity consumption from emerging economies will increase by over 250%.

  • 4

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    Solar Wind Hydro Gas Nuclear Coal

    Source: Ipsos-Reid, 2005.

    Public Opinion

  • 5

    “There is no sensible alternative to nuclear power if we are to sustain civilization.”

    James Lovelock, preeminent world leader in the development of environmental consciousness

  • 6

    Nuclear in the world today

    • There 440 commercial nuclear power reactors operating in 31 countries, with over 364,000 MWe of total capacity.

    • These units supply 16% of the world's electricity, as base-load power, and their efficiency is increasing.

    • 56 countries operate a total of 284 research reactors.

    The vast majority of these commercial nuclear power reactors will be reaching their end of life in the next 2 decades and will require

    either refurbishment or replacement.

  • 7

    Reactors Globally

    441Total

    4Japan, France, RussiaFast Neutron Reactor (FBR)

    12RussiaLight Water Graphite Reactor (RBMK)

    40Canada, China, RomaniaHeavy Water Reactor (CANDU)

    23United KingdomGas-cooled Reactor (Magnox & AGR)

    94United States, Japan, SwedenBoiling Water Reactor (BWR)

    268United States, France, Japan, Russia

    Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

    NumberMain CountriesType

  • 8

    New Reactors Globally

    6China, India, RomaniaHeavy Water Reactor (CANDU/PHWR)

    2ChinaBoiling Water Reactor (BWR)

    21China, India, Russia, Japan, Finland, Pakistan

    Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

    NumberMain CountriesType

    Approximately 30 power reactors are being constructed in 11 countries:

  • 9

    7%

    43%

    56%

    3%

    44%

    15%

    2%

    31%

    0%

    33%

    79%

    31%

    37%

    3% 0% 0% 0%

    29%

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    45%

    70%

    5% 4% 3% 9%

    16%

    56%

    42%

    6%

    20%

    45%

    32%

    0%

    49%

    20%19%

    0% 0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

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    Source: WNA

  • 10

    0

    10

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    50

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    80

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    100

    110

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    130

    Ar ge

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    Source: WNA

  • 11

    Performance of nuclear plants worldwide

    78.4 78.4 83.5

    91.1

    79.3

    67.4 73.8 71.6

    87.3

    77.3 77.8

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    W orld W ide CANADA CHINA FINLAND FRANCE INDIA JAPAN RUSSIAN FEDERATION

    SW ITZERLAND UNITED KINGDOM UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

    Lifetime Unit Capability Factor (until 2005)

  • 12

    Opportunities

    USAUSA "A secure energy future for America must include more nuclear power." President George W. Bush

    CanadaCanada "Nuclear power provides reliable baseload power and has historically been the backbone of Ontario’s energy system." Energy Minister Dwight Duncan

  • 13

    Opportunities FinlandFinland OlkiluotoOlkiluoto--33

    RussiaRussia 10 GW of new 10 GW of new nuclear by 2020nuclear by 2020

    ChinaChina 30 new reactors 30 new reactors by 2020by 2020

    FranceFrance National Debate National Debate on new buildon new build

    UKUK ““Back on the Back on the agenda with a agenda with a vengeancevengeance”” PM Tony BlairPM Tony Blair

  • New Entrants

    Venezuela Considering nuclear Venezuela Considering nuclear

    Vietnam Announced intention to build

    Vietnam Announced intention to build

    Indonesia Considering nuclear

    Indonesia Considering nuclear

    North Korea Proliferation concerns North Korea Proliferation concernsIran

    Proliferation concerns Iran Proliferation concerns

    Turkey As many as five plants Turkey As many as five plants

    Nigeria Diversify Energy Mix With Nuclear

    Nigeria Diversify Energy Mix With Nuclear

    Slovenia

    Slovenia Exploring New Build Slovenia Exploring New Build

  • 15

    Nuclear’s Market Share in Canada Today

    Nuclear 15%

    Gas 3%

    Renewable 1%

    Coal 22%

    Hydro 59%

    Source: Canadian Nuclear Association

    New Brunsw ick

    5%

    Ontario 90%

    Quebec 5%

  • 16

    The need to plan ahead

    0

    1000

    2000

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    Ja n-

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    C ap

    ac ity

    (M W

    )

    Operating Capacity Units 1,2 and 3 Capacity when Refurbished

    New Build or Bruce B refurbishment

    The output profile of the Bruce site is the same as many commercial nuclear facilities throughout the world

  • 17

    Ontario’s Energy Supply Mix - 2005

    Natural Gas 7%

    Coal 19%

    Nuclear 51%

    Hydro/Renewables 23%

  • 18

    Ontario’s Supply Mix – Directive to OPA

    Natural Gas/Co-gen,

    9,400

    Gasification, 250

    Conservation, 6,300

    Nuclear, 14,000

    Renewables, 15,700

    • Long-term coal replacement through conservation and renewables. • Increase in gas to meet growing p