Future Aerosol Emissions From Industrial and Utility Boilers Soonkyu Jung 1 Tami. C. Bond 2, and...
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Transcript of Future Aerosol Emissions From Industrial and Utility Boilers Soonkyu Jung 1 Tami. C. Bond 2, and...
Future Aerosol Emissions From
Industrial and Utility Boilers
Soonkyu Jung 1
Tami. C. Bond2, and David G. Streets3
1,2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA
3 Decision and Information Sciences,
Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, USA
Combustion
Image from www.saltwater.co.uk/ downloads.htm
Aerosols are an important pollutant in urban areas. PM2.5 are considered to have significant adverse effect to human health and stringent regulations to reduce PM2.5 emission have been issued in many world regions.
Black Carbon and Climate Black carbon has been the second largest
climate forcing after CO2. - Jacobson (2000)
“Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change”
(Hansen et al, 2000)
Radiative Forcing
(IPCC,2001)
Challenges Warm or cool?
OC scatter light back to space thus acting to reduce the warming
BC warms climate by absorbing sun lights Determining the ratio is a difficult task
Where & How much of the BC/OC comes from? Different Combustion process / Control
Historical & future emission Lack of historical data
Aerosol-Climate Study Overview
Emission Inventory
Emission Factor Fuel ConsumptionRegional Properties
ClimateModel
Aerosol Emissions from Combustion
www.upstate.edu/ pathenvi/basics/bas1.html
Aerosol from deferent fuel Combustion technology have totally different properties & amountBy Using this idea, we develop aerosol emission inventory
Total Emissions
l nnmlknmlkj
mmlkkj XEFFCEm ,,,,,,,,,,
Where, j species; k country ; l sector; m fuel type ; n fuel/technology combination;Em Emissions FC fuel consumption, kg/yrEF Emission Factor specific to fuel/technology combination
(including the effects of control devices), g/kgX Fraction of fuel of this sector consumed by
a specific technology, where ∑X =1 for each fuel and sector
BOND ET AL., 2004
Determination of the total emission
0.60.05
0.05
1212
0.15
0.15
2.02.00.94
0.951.425
1.51.5
2kg pm 1,000kg
Sector : Transport Fuel type Fuel Consumption Emission FactorFuel Fraction
EFpm,g/kgDiesel
normal
Diesel
Super emitter
Present Day Estimate of BC/OC- Bond et al. 2004
Which of these will change in the future?
Fuel Change
www.sacecs.co.za
en.wikipedia.org
Coal-fired, high BC
Gas or electric, low BC
We Use IPCC SRES Scenario for fuel estimation
Which of these will change in the future?
Technology Change
www.sacecs.co.za
Google.com
Old burner - high BC
Modern Combustor, low BC
We Develop Dynamic Simulation toolFor future technology splits
Which of these will change in the future?
Emission Control Technology
Street, 2004
We Develop Dynamic Simulation toolFor future technology splits
Electrostatic precipitator, high collection efficiency
Cyclone, low collection efficiency
Governing factors of technology change
Diffusion Studies suggest • Adoption rate of new technology is:
-Positively related to the Benefits & Technology popularity
-Negatively related to the Costs
We use (based on historical trend simulation):
• Emission Standards of species ( Regulation )• Technology popularity (e.g. Installed Capacity)• Technology limitation (Newer technology takes time to be
used in Developing countries)• Economic situation
Drivers : Regulation and Control Efficiency
Control Efficiency over Emission Standard
96.0
96.5
97.0
97.5
98.0
98.5
99.0
99.5
100.0
0-50 50-100 100-200 200-300 Over 300
PM Emission Standard(mg/m3) (Efficiency of MC is estimated about 75%)
Ove
rall
Eff
icie
ncy
(%)
BagHouse
ESP
Scrubber
Drivers : Government Regulation
Emission Control Equipment Installation Trend
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
-18 -17 -16 -15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0
Regulation Start Year - Boiler Installed Year
Inst
alla
tio
n R
atio
Drivers : Capacity- Case of Cyclone Furnace
Uncontrolled NO Concentrations for Types of combustion (Air Pollution Control Manual, 1992, p. 216)
Technology Choice Probabilities- Case of Cyclone Furnace
Technology Possibility of Cyclone Firing (over NOx Standards)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0 100 200 300 400 500
Boiler Capacity(MW)
Ad
op
tio
n P
oss
ibili
ty
0.3 0.6 1.2 2.4
Drivers : - Boiler Population Trend
Estimate Boiler Age Distribution- From Fuel Consumption Data
Capacity Modeling(U.S. Coal Generation Util)
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
140000000
160000000
180000000
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991
Year
Co
al c
on
sum
pti
on
Inc(
ton
)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
New
cap
a in
stal
led
(MW
)
Model Observed
Emission Standards Modeling- Particulate Matter over GDP per Capita
Emission Standard Model(Particulate Matter)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000
GDP per Capita(Dollars)
Em
issi
on
Sta
nd
ard
(TS
P)
mg
/m3
Observed Modeled
Drivers : Industry Sector Change
Sectoral Change (Service) over Economic Growth
y = 0.2351x0.1016
R2 = 0.5664
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
100 1,000 10,000 100,000
GDP per Capita (US Dollar)
Shar
e of S
ervic
e Sec
tor
Sectoral Change (Agriculture) over Economic Growth
y = 7.7153x-0.5691
R2 = 0.8532
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
100 1000 10000 100000
GDP per Capita (US Dollar)
Shar
e of A
gricu
ture
Agriculture Dominant ---- Service Sector Dominant
Description of The Model
Schematic diagram for developing future emissions inventory model
Preliminary Result Total global coal-boiler capacity is
estimated to increase (in all scenarios , Ranging from 394%-605% for the power sector)
Use of coal boilers for power generation is expected to be high in many world regions, because the demand for electricity is expected to increase in all scenarios (from 340%-540%) and use of coal for electricity generation to remain high (20%-31%)
Preliminary Result (Cont.) The boiler capacity in South Asia is
forecasted to take the largest of the 2050 values of 9%-20% under most scenarios except A2 scenario which expects USA as the largest share
Selected global combustion technology changes
Combustion Technology Change(Industry - HardCoal)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Scenario - Year
Tec
hn
olo
gy
Sh
are
Stoker Pulv Cyclone FBC
Combustion Technology Change(Utility - HardCoal)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Scenario - Year
Tech
no
log
y S
hare
Stoker Pulv Cyclone FBC IGCC
(a)
Questions? Thank you
Description of The Model- Simulate initial Distribution of Boilers Create Boiler inventory
Combustor Type Control Equipment Type Boiler Age (Estimated from Fuel Consumption) Capacity Distribution
Description of The Model- Run the Model for a Step Year Examine Boiler Age and Retire Boilers Check New Regulation and Upgrade
Control Equipment Calculate amount of capacity of boilers in
this step year Determine the firing type and control
device
Description of The Model- Determine Emissions Technology Splits from simulation will be
interfaced with Emission Inventory program
17 World Regions in this model (From IMAGE Group 2002)
Boiler Capacity Distribution- Assume Follow S-Shape Curve
Indutrial Boiler Capacity Curve
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 1 2 4 8 16 33 67 134
Boiler Capacity(MW)
Cu
mu
lati
ve R
atio
(%)
Model
Real Capa
IPCC ScenariosA1, A2, B1, B2
Fuel, GDP
U.S DOE Utility Survey
U.S. EPA Industrial Boiler Inventory
Bond et al2004
Inventory
IEA Historical Fuel Data
Determine Distribution- Create 10 Capacity Groups
Set unit number in each group
Simulate Distribution
Create Blank Cells
Number of Units of Groups
Initialize Unit properties (Sources)Capacity (Distribution module)
Technology (Previous Inventory)Age (Age module)
Determine model size of a country
Determine Age Based on U.S Historical Trend + IEA Historical Fuel data
Run the model to the Next 5Year
ChK Boilers AgeRetire Boilers
New Regulations?
Regulation Modeling
Current Emission Standards Data
GDP
Future Capacity Modeling
Future Fuel
Choose New Control Device
Need New Boilers? Choose New Boilers
Target Year?Y
Determine Technology SplitsNo, Next Step
Emission FactorModeling Modules
GDP
Splits
probability model
SPEWFuture Emission Inventory
Schematic methodology for the development of future emission inventory of boilers
SRES Scenarios
A2
Eco
nomy
Technology E
n ergy
Agriculture
(Land-use)
D r i v i n g F o r c e s
A1
B2Global
Economic
Regional
Environmental
B1
Population
Emphasis on sustainability
and equity
Emphasis on
material wealth
Globalisation
Regionalisation
A1 BalancedA1 FossilA1 Technology
B1
B2A2
What are the IPCC SRES scenarios
IPCC Scenarios
Em
ph
asi
s on
su
sta
inab
ilit
y a
nd
eq
uit
yGlobalisation
Regionalisation/fragmentation
Globalised, intensive
‘Market-Forces’
Em
ph
asi
s on
m
ate
rial w
ealt
h
Regional, extensive
‘Mixed green bag’
Globalised, extensive
‘Sustainable development’
Regional, intensive
‘Clash of civilisations’
Impacts
Impacts of more intense rainfall on storm drains/sewers
Changes in circulation and the implications for air pollution
Coastal cities and tidal surge Implications of increased wind storm
IPCC Working Group, 2002
Present Day Estimate of BC/OC- Bond et al. 2004
Previous Estimates of Aerosol Emissions From Fossil Fuel Combustion (Tg/Year)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Liousse et al.[1996]
Cooke et al.[1999]
Bond et al. [2004]
BC
OC
Calculation j species
• BC( Black Carbon) or OC( Organic Carbon)
k country• Country level (in large country, State or Province level)
l sector• Residential, Industry, Power, Transport, Biomass Burning
m fuel type• Diesel, Hard Coal, Gasoline, Wood…
n fuel/technology combination• Fuel used by a specific technology
l nnmlknmlkj
mmlkkj XEFFCEm ,,,,,,,,,,
Total Emission(2-2)
Sector
Fuel
Fuel/Technology combination
Emission Factors (EF)Emission Factors of BC and OC ( j = BC or OC )
• EFBC=EFPM F1.0 FBC Fcont,
Where
EFPM the bulk particulate emission factor, g/kg
F1.0 fraction of emissions with diameters smaller than 1μm
FBC fraction of fine particulate matter that is black carbon
Fcont the fraction of fine PM that penetrates the control device
• EFOC=EFPM F1.0 FOC Fcont,
Where
FOC fraction of fine particulate matter that is organic carbon
l nnmlknmlkj
mmlkkj XEFFCEm ,,,,,,,,,,
Fuel consumption of the future
FCi,k,l,m = FC1996,k,l,m × FCIMi,k,l,m / FCIM1996,k,l,m
where
FC1996,k,l,m IEA Energy Statistics data for the year 1996
FCIM fuel consumption in the IPCC IMAGE dataset.
l nnmlkinmlkji
mmlkikji XEFFCEm ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Emission factors for the future
EFi,j,l,m,n = EFPMi,j,l,m,n× fsubj,l,m,n×fCj,l,m,n ×fconti,l,m,n
Where
fsub = f1.0
fC = fraction of the particulate matter that is carbon (FBC +FOC)
l nnmlkinmlkji
mmlkikji XEFFCEm ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Evolution of Emission Factors
fCj,l,m,n , fsubj,l,m,n and EFPM
Constant over time for each combination of scenario/species/sector/fuel/technology
fconti,l,k,m,n
• Collection efficiency could be estimated from
regulation, economics, technology innovation
fcont = 1/{1+exp(-[log(αCn)+ βStdpm+ γ])}
where, α, β, γ coefficients
Cn technology adoption parameter
Stdpm Emission Standards of particulate matter
EFi,j,k,l,m,n = EFPMi,j,l,m,n× fsubj,l,m,n×fCj,l,m,n ×fconti,l,k,m,n
Radiative Forcing
Values of Particulate Matter Emission Characteristics for Stationary Combustion
BOND ET AL., 2004
Emission Standards Modeling Short-term emission standards reflect present
(and proposed) legislation longer term emission standards are assumed
to improve due to technological enhancements
Use GDP per Capita as a proxy for technological enhancements