FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY
20
7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/fundamentals-of-the-austrian-business-cycle-theory 1/20 O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U Lmfn{~h >5 Fmu >2=2 Nu Yla~wykj Ra``key
Transcript of FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY
7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY
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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
O[JIMFKJYM@WAO YLK
M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWWGUG@K YLKA^U
Lmfn{~h >5 Fmu >2=2
Nu Yla~wykj Ra``key
7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY
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‗ > ‗
O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
Ym`cejh ylk y~{yl
‖Ey ew xk`` kja{hl ylmy rkar`k ao ylkjmyeaj ia jay {jik~wymji a{~ nmjcejh mji
fajkym~u wuwykf oa~ eo ylku iei E
nk`ekvk ylk~k xa{`i nk m ~kva`{yeajnkoa~k yafa~~ax fa~jejh*‖
‗‗Lkj~u Oa~i ,=<?7 ‗ =598%
7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY
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‗ 7 ‗
O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
Fajku mji ylk r{~glmwejh raxk~ ao fajku
Fajku ew ylk {jevk~wm``u mggkryki fkmjw ao k|glmjhk*
↞ Ylk
k|glmjhk
o{jgyeaj
ao fajku
ew
ylk
wa`k
o{jgyeaj
ao fajku*Ylk
wya~k
ao vm`{k
o{jgyeaj ylk
{jey
ao mgga{jy
o{jgyeaj
mji ylk
ikok~~ki
rmufkjy
o{jgyeaj
m~k
w{n&o{jgyeajw
ao ylk
fkmjw
ao k|glmjhk
o{jgyeaj
ao fajku*
Ej m fajkym~u kgajafu ylk r{~glmwejh raxk~ ao fajku ew
ikyk~fejki nu ylk w{rr`u ao mji ikfmji oa~ fajku*
Gm~` Fkjhk~,=<92 ‗ =5>=%
U
Ikfmji oa~ haaiw 6w{rr`u ao fajku
U2
Fajku {jeywrk~ haai ,R% W{rr`u ao haaiw 6
ikfmji oa~ fajku
R2
R=
M
N
U=
Ylk R{~glmwejh Raxk~ ao Fajku
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‗ 9 ‗
O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
Xlmy ejo`myeaj ~km``u ew ,E%
Yaimu ejo`myeaj ew yuregm``u {jik~wyaai mw mjajhaejh ~ewk ejm ,gajw{fk~% r~egk ejik| ,mji yl{w m ikg`ejk ej ylk r{~glmwejhraxk~ ao fajku%*
W{gl mj ejyk~r~kymyeaj ao ejo`myeaj ~kwyw aj ylkejik| ~khefkr{y oa~xm~i nu ylk [W Mfk~egmj kgajafewy E~vejh Oewlk~,=<?8 ‗ =598%*
Laxkvk~ ylk ejik| ~khefk gmj nk g~eyegewki oa~ m j{fnk~ ao ~kmwajw ,gafraweyeaj ao ylk ejik| xkehlyejhw kyg%*
Fa~k efra~ymjy ey wla{`i nk jayki ylmy ylk~k m~k mgy{m``u yxakookgyw ylmy m~k yuregm``u mwwagemyki xeyl ejo`myeaj jmfk`u ,e%vewen`k kookgy mji ,ee% mjejvewen`k kookgy *
E~vejh Oewlk~,=<?8 ‗ =598%
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‗ ; ‗
O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
Xlmy ejo`myeaj ~km``u ew ,EE%
Ylk vewen`k kookgy ao ejo`myeajew ylk glmjhk ej avk~m`` r~egkw*
↞ M ~ewk
ej r~egkw
~kw{`yejh
o~af
mj ejg~kmwk
ej ylk
fajku
w{rr`u k|gkkiejh
,ylk
~ewk
ej% fajku
ikfmji*
Ylk ejvewen`k kookgy ao ejo`myeajew ylk ~kiewy~en{yevk kookgyxlegl ~kw{`yw o~af m ~ewk ej ylk fajku wyagc e~~kwrkgyevkao mglmjhk ej ylk r~egk `kvk` *
↞ Oe~wy ~kgkevk~w
ao ylk
jkx
fajku
nkjkoey
my ylk
k|rkjwk
ao `myk ~kgkevk~w
,‚Gmjye``aj
Kookgy‐%*
^eglm~i Gmjye``aj,=?<2 ‗
=879%
7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY
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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
Xlmy ejo`myeaj ~km``u ew ,EEE%
Ylk vewen`k mji ejvewen`k kookgyw ao ejo`myeaj m~k mgy{m``ugmry{~ki nu glmjhkw ej ylk fajku wyagc4
↞ M ~ewk
ej ylk
fajku
w{rr`u
jkgkwwm~e`u
`kmiw
ya m ikg`ejk
ejylk
r{~glmwejh
raxk~ ao fajku
‗
gafrm~ki
xeyl
m wey{myeaj
ej xlegl
ylk
fajku
w{rr`u
~kfmejw
{jglmjhki
‗ mji ey
m`walmw ~kiewy~en{yevk
kookgyw*
↞ ^ewejh
r~egkw
m~k
m ,rawwen`k% wufryaf
ao m ~ewk
ej ylk fajku
wyagc*
Wa xk gmj nmwgem``u wmu ylmy kgajafegm``u wrkmcejhylk ~ewkej ylk fajku wyagc ew ylk r~ark~ ejyk~r~kymyeaj ao ejo`myeaj*
@{ixeh vaj Fewkw,=<<= ‗
=587%
7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY
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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
O~kk fm~cky fajku ,E%
7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY
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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
O~kk fm~cky fajku ,EE%
7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY
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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
O~kk fm~cky fajku ,EEE%
7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY
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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
O~kk fm~cky fajku ,E_%
7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY
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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
G~kiey mji fajku r~ai{gyeaj
[W Nmjc G~kiey mji F> ,+ u!u%
Wa{~gk4 Ylafwaj Oejmjgem`, axj gm`g{`myeajw*
&=2
&;
2
;
=2
=;
>2
?2 ?; 82 8; <2 <; 52 5; 22 2; =2
Nmjc G~kieyF>
Fajku ew
r~ai{gki
yl~a{hl
‚ge~g{`myeaj
g~kiey‐ xlegl
ejg~kmwkw
ylk
fajku
wyagc ‚a{y ao ylej
me~‐*
7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY
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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
M ylka~u ao ylk g~ewew
‚Ylk~k ew ja fkmjw ao mvaeiejh ylk oejm`ga``mrwk ao m naaf n~a{hly mna{y nu g~kieyk|rmjweaj* Ylk m`yk~jmyevk ew aj`u xlkylk~ ylkg~ewew wla{`i gafk waajk~ mw ylk ~kw{`y ao mva`{jym~u mnmjiajfkjy ao o{~ylk~ g~kieyk|rmjweaj a~ `myk~ mw m oejm` mji yaym`gmymwy~arlk ao ylk g{~~kjgu wuwykf ejva`vki*‐
@{ixeh vaj Fewkw ,=55?% L{fmj Mgyeaj 9yl ki* Oa| /Xe`ckw Wmj O~mjgewga r* ;8>*
@{ixeh vaj Fewkw=<<= ‗
=587
7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY
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‗ = 7 ‗
O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
]{mjyeyu ao `amjmn`k o{jiw
] 2
Ejyk~kwy~myk
W“ 6 W # Ι F
e2
W ,w{rr`u ao r~kwkjy haaiwikfmji oa~
o{y{~k haaiw%
] =
M
Ne=
E ,ikfmji oa~r~kwkjy haaiww{rr`u ao o{y{~k haaiw%
G
] >2
N“G“
] 7] 9
W““ 6 W # Ι F # Ι F
Fmjer{`myejh ylk ejyk~kwy ~myk
7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY
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‗ = 9 ‗
O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
[W jafejm` HIR mji yaym` ikny [W)nj
Wa{~gk4 Ylafwaj Oejmjgem`* & Jafejm` HIR mjj{m`etki }{m~yk~`u imym* & Iafkwyeg jajoejmjgem`wkgya~ ,la{wkla`iw n{wejkww mji wymyk `agm` mji okik~m` havk~jfkjy% iafkwyeg oejmjgem` wkgya~ mjioa~kehj wkgya~*
2
=2 222
>2 222
72 222
92 222
;2 222
?2 222
;> ;? ?2 ?9 ?< 8> 8? <2 <9 << 5> 5? 22 29 2<
Jafejm` HIR Yaym` ikny
Ikny ru~mfei
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‗ = ; ‗
O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
Xa~`i xeik fajku k|rmjweaj
W/R ;22 AKGI .jm~~ax. mji .n~ami. fajku mji GRE
Wa{~gk4 Ylafwaj Oejmjgem` axj gm`g{`myeajw*
$Wk~ekw m~k ejik|ki ,Dmj (87 6 =22%*
2
922
<22
=>22
=?22
>222
>922
><22
7>22
82 87 8? 85 <> <; << 5= 59 58 22 27 2? 25 =>
W/R ;22 N~ami fajkuJm~~ax fajk GRE
O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
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‗ = ? ‗
O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
Havk~jfkjy g~kiey
GIW ; ukm~w wavk~kehjw nmwew raejyw
O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
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‗ = 8 ‗
O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
Ylk {`yefmyevk fkmjw ao rmufkjy
Ha`i a{jgk ej jmyeajm` g{~~kjgu$
Wa{~gk4 N`aafnk~h axj gm`g{`myeajw*$Wk~ekw m~k ejik|ki4 Dmj{m~u =58= 6 =22*
2
;22
=222
=;22
>222
>;22
7222
7;22
9222
9;22
;222
8= 89 88 <2 <7 <? <5 5> 5; 5< 2= 29 28 =2[W&Ia``m~ N~eyewl Ra{jiDmrmjkwk ukj I&Fm~c ,₠ mw o~af =!=!55%
Wxeww O~mjg
O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
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‗ = < ‗
O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
Glejm4 ~koa~fejh ylk ejyk~jmyeajm` fajkym~u wuwykf
‐Ylk ikwe~mn`k ham` ao ~koa~fejh ylk ejyk~jmyeajm`fajkym~u wuwykf ew ya g~kmyk mj ejyk~jmyeajm`~kwk~vk g{~~kjgu ylmy ew iewgajjkgyki o~afejievei{m` jmyeajw mji ew mn`k ya ~kfmej wymn`k ejylk `ajh ~{j yl{w ~kfavejh ylk ejlk~kjyikoegekjgekw gm{wki nu {wejh g~kiey&nmwkijmyeajm` g{~~kjgekw*‖
‐Nmgc ej ylk =592w Ckujkw lmi m`~kmiu r~arawkiya ejy~ai{gk mj ejyk~jmyeajm` g{~~kjgu {jey jmfki‐Nmjga~‖ nmwki aj ylk vm`{k ao 72~kr~kwkjymyevk gaffaieyekw *‖
‐Ylk g~kmyeaj ao mj ejyk~jmyeajm` g{~~kjgu {jeynmwki aj ylk Ckujkwemj r~arawm` ew m na`iejeyemyevk ylmy ~k}{e~kw k|y~ma~iejm~u ra`eyegm`veweaj mji ga{~mhk*‖
Wa{~gk4 Tla{ \emagl{mj Havk~ja~ ao Ylk Rkar`kw― Nmjc ao Glejm ^koa~f ylk Ejyk~jmyeajm` Fajkym~u Wuwykf >7 Fm~gl
>225*
O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
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‗ = 5 ‗
O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
Ylk {`yefmyevk fkmjw ao rmufkjy ,EE%
R{~glmwejh raxk~ ao ylk [W) mji ha`i$
]{k``k 4 N`aafnk~h*$J{fnk~ ao gajw{fk~ haaiw( nmwckyw oa~ ajk [W) mji ajk a{jgk ao ha`i*
2
=
>
7
9
;
?
8
<
>2 >; 72 7; 92 9; ;2 ;; ?2 ?; 82 8; <2 <; 52 5; 22 2; =2[W&Ia``m~ Okej{jtk Ha`iA{jgk ao ha`i
O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U
O[JIMFKJYM@WAO YLK
M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWWGUG@K YLKA^U
Lmfn{~h >5 Fmu >2=2
Nu Yla~wykj Ra``key
