Fundamental Analysis - Microsoft · 2017-05-30 · 29.05 open price 29.05 close price % change...
Transcript of Fundamental Analysis - Microsoft · 2017-05-30 · 29.05 open price 29.05 close price % change...
30/05/2017
Fundamental Analysis
Major events this week (May 29 - June 2)
Tuesday, 30 May 2017 07:30 GMT
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Day/Time (GMT)
Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previ-ous
MONDAY
01:00 pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
TUESDAY
01:30 am AUD Building Approvals m/m April 4.4% 3.2% -10.3%
07:00 am CHF KOF Economic Barometer May 106.2 106.0
02:00 pm USD CB Consumer Confidence May 120.1 120.3
09:00 pm NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report
WEDNESDAY
09:00 am EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y May 1.0% 1.2%
01:30 pm CAD GDP m/m March 0.3% 0.0%
01:45 pm USD Chicago PMI May 57.0 58.3
THURSDAY
01:30 am AUD Retail Sales m/m April 0.3% -0.1%
08:30 am GBP Manufacturing PMI May 56.5 57.3
12:15 pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change May 181K 177K
FRIDAY
08:30 am GBP Construction PMI May 52.7 53.1
12:30 pm CAD Trade Balance April 0.0B -0.1B
12:30 pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change April 186K 211K
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Key highlights of the week ended May 26
United Kingdom
On Monday, the British Prime Minister Theresa May had an interview with the BBC channel’s Andrew Neil. The interviewer asked the UK Prime Minister why the Conservative Party included a social care cap in its campaign, while it refused to do so at the very beginning of the rally, but May said she was honest with the nation and just wanted to clarify what the Party put in its manifesto. During the interview, the British PM stated that people wanted to see the stronger economy that could pay for the National Health Service and the public services. The Office for National Statistics reported that the economy grew at a seasonally adjusted quarterly pace of 0.2% in the first quarter, the slowest pace of growth since the beginning of 2016, compared to an originally reported 0.3% expansion pace. Meanwhile, market analysts expected the March quarter’s pace to remain unchanged. Euro zone
The Munich-based Ifo Institute for Economic Research reported that its Business Climate Index climbed to 114.6 points in the reported month, following April’s 113.0 and surpassing analysts’ expectations for an increase to 113.1. That marked the strongest reading since 1991. May’s jump was mainly driven by Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the French 2017 Presidential Election, which boosted confidence across the Euro zone.
Canada
Statistics Canada reported that the value of Canadian wholesale trade climbed 0.9% in March, surpassing the C$60B mark for the first time, up from the preceding month’s upwardly revised gain of just 0.3%. Nevertheless, March’s figure missed analysts’ expectations, as they anticipated an increase of 1.1% during the reported month. As markets expected, the Bank of Canada left its monetary policy unchanged as its meeting on Wednesday, suggesting that economic growth will likely slow in the June quarter. In a dovish statement, the Bank expressed concerns over capacity utilisation and subdued growth, but noted strong consumer spending, the prosperous housing market and solid job growth. Nevertheless, policymakers voted to keep the benchmark Overnight Rate at a record low of 0.50%.
United States
The Department of Commerce reported on Tuesday that sales of new houses dropped 11.4% to a seasonally adjusted annualised pace of 569K units in April, following the prior month’s upwardly revised pace of 642K units, the highest since October 2007, and falling behind expectations for a decrease to a 611K-unit pace. On an annual basis, new home sales were up 0.5% in April. The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude stockpiles fell 4.4M barrels in the week ended May 19, following the preceding week’s decrease of 1.8M barrels and surpassing expectations for a 2.4M barrel decline. Thus, inventories hit 516.3M barrels, the lowest level since mid-February, suggesting that the OPEC production cut deal began working. The Labour Department reported that initial jobless claims rose 1K to 234% in the week ended May 19, following the preceding week’s upwardly revised 233K. Meanwhile, market analysts anticipated an increase of 5K to 238K during the reported week. That marked the 116th of claims remaining below the 300K level, the longest stretch since 1973. The Commerce Department reported on Friday that Q1 GDP growth came in at a seasonally adjusted annualised pace of 1.2%, compared to an originally reported pace of 0.7%. Meanwhile, analysts expected the economy to expand 0.9% in the reported quarter. However, that was the worst performance over the past 12 months. A separate report released by the Commerce Department showed that new orders for US-manufactured durable goods dropped 0.7% last month, whereas orders for core durable goods fell 0.4%.
Tuesday, 30 May 2017 07:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
EUR
Impact
ECB President Mario Draghi says accommodative monetary policy still needed
High
The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi gave a
speech at the European Parliament in Brussels on Monday. The
ECB President acknowledged improving economic growth, but
stated that stimulus and support measures were still needed to
boost inflation. Apart from that, Draghi also pointed to weak
wage growth in the Euro zone. Meanwhile, markets expected
the Central bank to make a move at its June meeting amid
pressures coming from more conservative economies, but
Draghi’s dovish comments on Monday weakened the odds.
However, analysts suggested that the Bank would likely
improve its economic outlook at its next meeting amid solid
economic growth and Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the
French Presidential Election. The ECB President said that
inflation was far behind the Bank’s 2% target and, therefore,
policymakers were forced to keep rates and asset purchases
unchanged. Following Draghi’s speech, analysts predicted that
the next key decision for the ECB would unlikely come up until
the autumn, when policymakers will need to decide weather to
extend the Quantitative Easing programme or not.
Trends* Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
MAX 1.19 1.18 1.22
75% percentile 1.07 1.08 1.10
Median 1.05 1.04 1.05
25% percentile 1.03 1.02 1.01
MIN 0.98 0.95 0.90
* the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
29.05 open
price 29.05 close
price % change
EUR/USD 1.1178 1.1165 -0.12%
EUR/GBP 0.8724 0.8695 -0.33%
EUR/CHF 1.0894 1.0917 0.21%
EUR/JPY 124.3 124.23 -0.06%
Tuesday, 30 May 2017 07:30 GMT
“For domestic price pressures to strengthen, we still need very accommodative financing conditions, which are themselves dependent on a fairly substantial amount of monetary accommodation.” — Mario Draghi, European Central Bank
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
AUD
Impact
Australian new building approvals rebound last month
High
Australian building approvals rose more than expected in April,
official figures revealed on Tuesday. The Australian Bureau of
Statistics reported that new approvals climbed 4.4% to 17,414
on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, following the preceding
month’s upwardly revised fall of 10.3% and surpassing
expectations for a 3.2% increase. Still, the number of building
approvals was down 17.2% year-over-year, suggesting that
the recent construction boom faded. Apartments contributed
the most to the reported month’s climb. The ABS also reported
that building approvals for private sector dwellings, excluding
houses, surged 9.6% to 8,039 in April, compared to March’s
drop of 18.2%. However, despite April’s gain, approvals for
private dwellings were down 26.5% on an annual basis.
Meanwhile, private sector housing approvals rose 0.5% to
9,137 after falling 2.7% in March. Year-over-year, they were
down 7.5% in April. The value of new approvals advanced
7.2% last month, compared to March’s drop pf 15.4%. The
value of residential and non-residential building rose 8.2% and
5.5%, respectively.
Trends* Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
MAX 0.80 0.81 0.82
75% percentile 0.74 0.74 0.75
Median 0.73 0.72 0.72
25% percentile 0.71 0.71 0.70
MIN 0.68 0.63 0.60
* the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
29.05 open
price 29.05 close
price % change
AUD/JPY 82.76 82.78 0.02%
AUD/USD 0.7446 0.7439 -0.09%
EUR/AUD 1.5014 1.5009 -0.03%
GBP/AUD 1.721 1.7258 0.28%
Tuesday, 30 May 2017 07:30 GMT
“The failure of the April print to meaningful recoup the prior month’s plunge means quarterly approvals growth in Q2 remains in negative territory.” — Tom Kennedy, JP Morgan
Major events previous week (May 22 - 26)
Tuesday, 30 May 2017 07:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Day/Time (GMT)
Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previ-ous
MONDAY
06:00 pm GBP Prime Minister May Speaks
TUESDAY
08:00 am EUR German Ifo Business Climate May 114.6 113.1 112.9
12:30 pm CAD Wholesale Sales m/m March 0.9% 1.1% -0.2%
02:00 pm USD New Home Sales April 569K 611K 621K
WEDNESDAY
08:30 am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
02:00 pm CAD BOC Rate Statement
02:30 pm USD Crude Oil Inventories Last week -4.4M -2.4M -1.8M
THURSDAY
02:00 am NZD Annual Budget Release
08:30 am GBP Second Estimate GDP q/q Q1 2017 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
02:30 pm USD Unemployment Claims Last week 234K 238K 233K
FRIDAY
12:30 pm USD Prelim GDP q/q April 1.2% 0.9% 0.7%
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
EXPLANATIONS
Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 peri-
ods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200
periods
Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts
Second Quartile – the median price based on the projections of the industry
First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts
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