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FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
FSAU/FAOFSAU/FAO
Gu 2003 Food Security Analysis Gu 2003 Food Security Analysis & &
Projection through to Gu 2004Projection through to Gu 2004
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Meeting Goals & ObjectivesMeeting Goals & Objectives
GOALGOAL
To provide a preliminary analysis of To provide a preliminary analysis of the food security situation in Somalia the food security situation in Somalia following the following the GuGu 2003 season, with 2003 season, with an outlook through to an outlook through to GuGu 2004 2004
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Meeting Goals & ObjectivesMeeting Goals & Objectives
OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES
To provide crop production figures and analysis To provide crop production figures and analysis across Somalia for across Somalia for GuGu 2003. 2003.
To provide a national overview of pastoral To provide a national overview of pastoral conditions following the conditions following the GuGu 2003 season. 2003 season.
To provide an analysis of other factors To provide an analysis of other factors influencing food security in areas of concern in influencing food security in areas of concern in Somalia following the Somalia following the GuGu 2003 season 2003 season
To present an outlook for food security in To present an outlook for food security in Somalia through to the Somalia through to the GuGu season 2004 season 2004
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Meeting OutlineMeeting Outline
Time Topic
1000-1030 Introduction
1030-1120 Sectoral reports
1120-1205 Integrated analysis by area
1205-1300 Summary, Next steps, questions
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
FSAU FSAU Analytical Analytical processprocess
(1) (1)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
JunJul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
FSAU Analytical Process (II)FSAU Analytical Process (II)Early
Warning Information
Baseline livelihood analysis provides the context against which
indicators are monitored – it indicates
what is “normal”
Monitoring information (rainfall data, remote
sensing imagery, crop and livestock
production, market prices) flags situations
when access to resources become
critical
FSAU’s risk analysis explains how different shocks or risks affect different households:
how each is affected, why, when and for how long
Baseline vulnerability
analysis
Risk/Outcome Analysis
SeasonalFood SecurityAssessments
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Gu 2003 Rainfall Gu 2003 Rainfall performanceperformance
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Satellite imagery is important for early Satellite imagery is important for early warning analysiswarning analysis
It is the only data that is received with It is the only data that is received with sufficient regularity(every ten days) sufficient regularity(every ten days) and covers the entire countryand covers the entire country
data are proxies to the condition they data are proxies to the condition they measure and measure and Should beShould be interpreted interpreted with caution with caution
Triangulation with field data necessaryTriangulation with field data necessary
Uses & Limitations of Uses & Limitations of
Satellite ImagerySatellite Imagery
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Shabelle & Juba Maize Growing areas
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Hiran, Middle & Lower Shabelle
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Bay, Bakool, Parts of Gedo & Middle Juba
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Hargeisa, Gebiley and Borama
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Climate Outlook Forum:
Deyr Forecast
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Gu 2003 Crop Gu 2003 Crop performanceperformance
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Gu 2003 Cereal Production Gu 2003 Cereal Production (S.Somalia) and Somaliland(S.Somalia) and Somaliland
Compared to Gu Post-War Compared to Gu Post-War Average (PWA) (1995- 2002)and Average (PWA) (1995- 2002)and
20022002
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
20022002 20032003 PWAPWA
(95-02)(95-02) % of % of 20022002
% o% of f PWAPWA
BakoolBakool 1,1551,155 279279 2,8972,897 2424%% 1010%%
BayBay 56,26056,260 24,55024,550 42,36942,369 4444%% 5858%%
GedoGedo 2,6632,663 1,6651,665 4,2454,245 6363%% 3939%%
HiranHiran 210210 390390 3,0583,058 1414%% 1313%%
L/JubaL/Juba 8686 118118 152152 663%3% 7878%%
L/ShabelleL/Shabelle 8,7008,700 5,2805,280 7,4857,485 6161%% 7171%%
M/JubaM/Juba 2,4082,408 2,9332,933 3,1173,117 7878%% 9494%%
M/ShabelleM/Shabelle 8,4298,429 2,5862,586 4,9634,963 3131%% 5252%%
sub-totalsub-total 79,91179,911 37,80137,801 68,28568,285 4747%% 5555%%
SomalilandSomaliland 9,8029,802 11,64311,643 12,01512,015 8181%% 9797%%
G.TotalG.Total 89,71389,713 49,44449,444 80,30180,301 555%5% 6262%%
Sorghum production 1995-2002 and Average 1995-2002 (MT)
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
20022002 20032003PWAPWA
(95-02)(95-02) % of 2002% of 2002 % of PWA% of PWA
BakoolBakool 4545 5656 269269 7474%% 2121%%
BayBay 6,9206,920 4,5004,500 2,7542,754 6565%% 3737%%
GedoGedo 1,3831,383 3,0003,000 3,6903,690 17%17% 8181%%
HiranHiran 460460 500500 2,2502,250 9911%% 2222%%
L/JubaL/Juba 6,6606,660 6,4826,482 7,6247,624 9797%% 8585%%
L/ShabelleL/Shabelle 92,02092,020 88,03888,038 61,88661,886 9696%% 5858%%
M/JubaM/Juba 9,1809,180 2,4302,430 9,1219,121 2626%% 227%7%
M/ShabelleM/Shabelle 12,35012,350 13,50013,500 11,99211,992 9911%% 8787%%
sub-totalsub-total 129,018129,018 118,506118,506 99,58699,586 9292%% 881%1%
SomalilandSomaliland 1,0801,080 1,4401,440 3,4053,405 6767%% 4242%%
G.TotalG.Total 130,098130,098 119,946119,946 102,991102,991 9292%% 8484%%
Maize Production 1995-2002 and (Average 1995-2002) Maize Production 1995-2002 and (Average 1995-2002) (MT)(MT)
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
20022002 20032003 PWAPWA
(95-02)(95-02) % of % of
20022002 % of % of
PWAPWA
BakoolBakool 1,2001,200 335335 3,1663,166 2828%% 1111%%
BayBay 63,18063,180 29,05029,050 45,12345,123 4646%% 6464%%
GedoGedo 4,0464,046 4,6654,665 7,9357,935 885%5% 5959%%
HiranHiran 670670 890890 5,3085,308 6767%% 1717%%
L/JubaL/Juba 6,7466,746 6,6006,600 7,7767,776 9898%% 8585%%
L/ShabelleL/Shabelle 100,720100,720 93,31893,318 69,37169,371 9393%% 665%5%
M/JubaM/Juba 11,58811,588 5,3635,363 12,23812,238 4646%% 4444%%
M/ShabelleM/Shabelle 20,77920,779 16,08616,086 16,95516,955 7373%% 995%5%
sub-totalsub-total 208,929208,929 156,307156,307 167,871167,871 775%5% 9393%%
SomalilandSomaliland 10,88210,882 13,08313,083 15,42015,420 880%0% 885%5%
G.TotalG.Total 219,811219,811 169,390169,390 183,292183,292 7777%% 9292%%
Cereal production 1995-2003 and Average (1995-2002)
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Cereal Production 1995-2003 and (Avg. 1995-Cereal Production 1995-2003 and (Avg. 1995-2002)2002)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
MT
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Avg(95-01)
Years
SorghumMaize
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Main Factors Contributing to Losses Main Factors Contributing to Losses
after Establishmentafter Establishment Poor RainsPoor Rains Bird damage for SorghumBird damage for Sorghum Insect and Diseases (Sorghum and Insect and Diseases (Sorghum and
Maize)Maize) Low river level (impossible gravity Low river level (impossible gravity
irrigation )irrigation ) Floods Floods Conflict and insecurityConflict and insecurity
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Bakoo
lBay
Gedo
Hiran
L/Ju
ba
L/Sha
belle
M/Ju
ba
M/S
habe
lle
Somali
land
Avera
ge
Sorghum
Maize
Regional Contribution Compared to Average
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Pwa(95-02)
Sorghum
Maize
Cereal Production 1995-2003 Compared to Average
(1995-2002)
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Gu 2003Gu 2003Livestock ConditionsLivestock Conditions
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
0 K m 6 7 3 K m
PASTORAL AREAS OF CONCERN
Map Legend
Region2
District2
SITUATION 1 - EMERGENCY
SITUATION 2 - ALEERT
SITUATION 3 - CLOSE MONITORING
Documents
Most affectedAffectedClose monitoring
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Most AffectedMost Affected– Sool PlatSool Plateaeau of Sool and Sanaag regionsu of Sool and Sanaag regions
Dhahar, Badhan, Hudun, Fiqiga, and Dhahar, Badhan, Hudun, Fiqiga, and some some parts of Cerigavo districtparts of Cerigavo district– Lower Nugal Valley Lower Nugal Valley
(Taleh district and parts of Garowe)(Taleh district and parts of Garowe)
PASTORAL CONDITIONS PASTORAL CONDITIONS NormalNormal
– Most of Southern SomaliaMost of Southern Somalia– Some Northern AreasSome Northern Areas
AffectedAffected– Sool Plateau, Bari regionSool Plateau, Bari region (Gardo, (Gardo,
B/Beyla districts)B/Beyla districts)– Upper Upper Nugal Nugal (Dangorayo)(Dangorayo)– Hawd of Sool (Saraar of Ainabo Hawd of Sool (Saraar of Ainabo
district)district)– Addun Addun in Central Regionin Central Region
Close MonitoringClose Monitoring– Central Region : Central Region : Abudwak, Abudwak,
Elbur and Hobyo districtsElbur and Hobyo districts (poor (poor rain and conflict)rain and conflict)
– Nugal Region : Nugal Region : BurtinleBurtinle (in- (in-migration from Hawd of migration from Hawd of Ethiopia and Addun)Ethiopia and Addun)
– Bari Region: Upper Bari Region: Upper Dharoor Dharoor ddistricts of Iskushuban istricts of Iskushuban andand BossasoBossaso (in migration from (in migration from Sool of Sanaag and Nugal Sool of Sanaag and Nugal Region)Region)
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Pastoral ConstraintsPastoral Constraints
Poor rains Poor rains InsecurityInsecurityNon-existent or poor rangeland managementNon-existent or poor rangeland managementIncreased human settlement around berkads & Increased human settlement around berkads & increasing desertification of surrounding areasincreasing desertification of surrounding areasIncrease in private enclosures - reducing access Increase in private enclosures - reducing access to grazing and limiting normal to grazing and limiting normal migrationmigrationIIncreased likelihood ofncreased likelihood of migration migration from rural to from rural to urban areas as a result of pastoralist vulnerability.urban areas as a result of pastoralist vulnerability.
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
OVERVIEW OF OVERVIEW OF NUTRITION NUTRITION SITUATIONSITUATION
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Information sourcesInformation sources
Surveys (standard two-stage cluster Surveys (standard two-stage cluster sampling)sampling)
MUAC assessmentsMUAC assessments Trend data analysis from Health Trend data analysis from Health
centrescentres Qualitative assessments Qualitative assessments
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Broad observationsBroad observations
S/land & P/land: GAM 7 – 11% even in S/land & P/land: GAM 7 – 11% even in “food secure seasons”“food secure seasons”
South & Central: 10 – 15% even in South & Central: 10 – 15% even in food secure seasons”food secure seasons”
Variations in these rates in all areasVariations in these rates in all areas
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Areas of nutrition concern: NW&NE Areas of nutrition concern: NW&NE Somalia (Somaliland & Puntland)Somalia (Somaliland & Puntland)
Sool plateau: Sool plateau: GAM >12% in May,03, why not dramaticallyGAM >12% in May,03, why not dramatically
– Survival on adverse coping strategies (massive charcoal burning)Survival on adverse coping strategies (massive charcoal burning)– Social network supportSocial network support
Worsening rates from nearby facilities: <10% in Worsening rates from nearby facilities: <10% in April to >18% in AugustApril to >18% in August
Aug 03 assessment in parts of Huddun & Talex: Aug 03 assessment in parts of Huddun & Talex: GAM>20GAM>20
Rising incidences of diseases (ARI, measles)Rising incidences of diseases (ARI, measles) Coping mechanisms being exhaustedCoping mechanisms being exhausted Social support weakeningSocial support weakening
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Areas of nutrition concern: Areas of nutrition concern: South & Central ZoneSouth & Central Zone
High in esp.High in esp. Beletweyn Beletweyn, GAM 17%, July03) , GAM 17%, July03) GAM also high in other areas (Bulo Burti & GAM also high in other areas (Bulo Burti &
Jalalaqsi)Jalalaqsi)– Contaminated water, Contaminated water, – poor sanitation, poor sanitation, – Food inaccessibility among poor HHsFood inaccessibility among poor HHs
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
JUBA Valley: Jilib, Bualle & parts of JUBA Valley: Jilib, Bualle & parts of Haggar (mainly riverine villagesHaggar (mainly riverine villages
High GAM >20%, oedema: High GAM >20%, oedema: – Low food diversity esp. acute shortage of Low food diversity esp. acute shortage of
protein among riverine populations & protein among riverine populations & – High disease incidencesHigh disease incidences– Limited social network supportLimited social network support
Insecurity inhibits assessment missionsInsecurity inhibits assessment missions Rising GAM levels in Badhadhe town Rising GAM levels in Badhadhe town
attributed to decline in intake of milkattributed to decline in intake of milk
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
BAKOL & BAY: BAKOL & BAY:
Chronic; high GAM 13 - 20% (surveys) & Chronic; high GAM 13 - 20% (surveys) & MUAC (Aug03)- parts of Huddur, RabdurreMUAC (Aug03)- parts of Huddur, Rabdurre– Nutrition related interventions thus rates from Nutrition related interventions thus rates from
>20% >20% – Chronic high GAM due to successive deprived Chronic high GAM due to successive deprived
food intake-low productivityfood intake-low productivity Limited accessibility in Bay esp. in Baidoa Limited accessibility in Bay esp. in Baidoa
though HF trend analysis shows though HF trend analysis shows chronically high GAM 16 – 24 % esp. chronically high GAM 16 – 24 % esp. Dinsor, Burakhaba & BaidoaDinsor, Burakhaba & Baidoa
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
N. GEDO: ConcernN. GEDO: Concern
High GAM 15 - 22% in N. Gedo (esp. B. High GAM 15 - 22% in N. Gedo (esp. B. Hawo, Dolow, &Luuq)Hawo, Dolow, &Luuq)
Declined from high of >30% in 2001 to Declined from high of >30% in 2001 to current levels.current levels.– Interventions and initially improving food Interventions and initially improving food
securitysecurity High levels caused by low nutrient intake High levels caused by low nutrient intake
due to successive droughts and insecuritydue to successive droughts and insecurity Reports of declining food intake - Reports of declining food intake -
Malnutrition may increaseMalnutrition may increase
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
IDPs, Returnees & Urban poorIDPs, Returnees & Urban poor
In Bossasso, Hargeisa, Mogadishu In Bossasso, Hargeisa, Mogadishu Kismayu & Burao Kismayu & Burao – Rates chronically high 12 – 19%Rates chronically high 12 – 19%– Unsanitary environmentUnsanitary environment– Poor childcare practices (eg. Use of Poor childcare practices (eg. Use of
bottle feeds)bottle feeds)– DiseasesDiseases– Low food intake related low accessibilityLow food intake related low accessibility
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
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BAKI
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JILIB
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SAKOW
BRAWE
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XUDUN
WAJID
DOLOW
CADALE
BALCAD
Galcad
DINSOR
QARDHO
TALEEX
SHEIKH
ZEYLAC
Cadaado
AFGOOYE
AFMADOW
JAMAAME
GOLWEYN
JARIBAN
CAYNABO
GEBILEY
CALUULA
XAAFUUN
BARGAAL
KANDALA
BERBERA
LUGHAYE
BERDALE
TAYEGLOW
BADHADHE
QORYOLEY
SOBLAALE
BURTINLE
GOLDOGOB
CEEL WAQ
CEEL BUUR
JALALAQSI
WANLEWEYNBURHAKABA
LAS QORAY
BUUHOODLE
WARSHEIKH
CABUDWAAQ
BALANBALE
CEEL DHEER
ADAN YABAL
BULO-BURTO
Ceel Barde
Dan Gorayo
ISKUSHUBAN
BELET XAWO
Rab DhuureGal Hareeri
XARARDHEERE
BAAR-DHEERE
CEEL AFWEYN
KURTUNWAAREY
BANDER BEYLA
MAHADAY WEYNEQANSAX DHEERE
BANDAR WANAAG
BALLI GUBADLE(Balleh Khadar)
XUDUR
MERKA
BURCO
JOWHAR
BOROMA
BUAALE
KISMAYO
GAROOWE
BOSSASO
BAYDHABA
GALKACYO
HARGEYSA
GARBAHAREY
CEERIGAABO
BELET-WEYNE
LAS CAANOOD
DHUSA-MAREEB
MOGADISHU
06/02
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06/01
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08/99
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04/00
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09/99
08/99
08/03
Global (Total) Acute Malnutrition
0% - 4.9%5% - 9.9%10% - 14.9%15% - 19.9%> 20%
RiverMajor road
# District town#Y Regional capital%[ Capital
Regional boundaryDistrict boundary
Property of FSAU-FAO.P.O. Box 1230 Vilage Market (Nairobi),Tel 3745734/8297/1299 or 3750262/3,Fax: 3740598E-mail: [email protected].
Nutrition componet of FSAU is funded by USAID
Project partners are UNICEF, WHO, SRCS/ICRC, SRCS/IFRC, WVI,GHC,IMC, MSF-S, COSV, AAH, Muslim Aid-UK, INTERSOS, CISP, MOHL, IRC, MOSA, ACF-F, AAH, COOPI, Zam Zam Foun,Waberi Comm., H/W
Nutrition information throughout Somalia
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Market PricesMarket Prices
Trends since 1998Trends since 1998
(US$)(US$)
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60Ja
n-98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Pri
ce in
US
Do
llar
for
1 kg
Sorghum Belt (Sorghum)
Somaliland, Puntland and Central Regions (Rice)
Juba Valley (Maize)
Shabelle Valley (Maize)
Selected Aggregate Prices for 1 kg CerealSelected Aggregate Prices for 1 kg Cereal
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
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Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
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Jan-
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Jan-
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Jan-
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Gra
in (
kg)
Pu
rch
ased
wit
h 1
Day
's L
abo
ur
0
5
10
15
20
25Somaliland, Puntland and Central Regions (Rice)
Juba Valley (Maize)
Shabelle Valley (Maize)
Sorghum Belt (Sorghum - RIGHT HAND AXIS)
Selected Aggregate Terms of Trade: The Amount of Cereal Bought with One Selected Aggregate Terms of Trade: The Amount of Cereal Bought with One Day’s Unskilled LabourDay’s Unskilled Labour
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
0
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100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan
-98
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Gra
in (
kg
) P
urc
ha
se
d w
ith
1 G
oa
t
Sorghum Belt (Sorghum)
Somaliland, Puntland and Central Regions (Rice)
Juba Valley (Maize)
Shabelle Valley (Maize)
Terms of Trade: The Amount of Grain Bought with One Local Quality GoatTerms of Trade: The Amount of Grain Bought with One Local Quality Goat
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Important Factors to ConsiderImportant Factors to Consider
Good terms of trade: Does not Good terms of trade: Does not necessarily translate into purchasing necessarily translate into purchasing powerpower
Price data collected in market towns, Price data collected in market towns, not rural areas where agric labour is not rural areas where agric labour is sought by the rural poorsought by the rural poor
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Food Security Projections:Food Security Projections:Important factors to considerImportant factors to consider
Deyr RainfallDeyr Rainfall Insecurity & political factorsInsecurity & political factors Djibouti expulsion of migrant workersDjibouti expulsion of migrant workers Meat exports from Ethiopia to Saudi ArabiaMeat exports from Ethiopia to Saudi Arabia Remittances and economic investment from Remittances and economic investment from
abroadabroad Exchange ratesExchange rates Border closuresBorder closures Others …?Others …?
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
FSAU AnalysisFSAU Analysis
Example from Juba ValleyExample from Juba Valley Southern Agro-pastoral food Southern Agro-pastoral food
economy zoneeconomy zone Deyr 50% scenarioDeyr 50% scenario
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Background: Analysis processBackground: Analysis process Compile district crop production dataCompile district crop production data Disaggregate by FEZDisaggregate by FEZ Categorize into groups according to Gu Categorize into groups according to Gu
crop performancecrop performance Analyse household economy for “poor”, in Analyse household economy for “poor”, in
areas of concern, considering:areas of concern, considering:– Change in productive activities – including Change in productive activities – including
coping strategiescoping strategies– Change in prices of key commodities Change in prices of key commodities
bought/soldbought/sold– Other factors affecting food securityOther factors affecting food security
Determine deficit (if any)Determine deficit (if any)
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Example: Gedo Agropastoral Example: Gedo Agropastoral (Scenario 50% (Scenario 50% DeyrDeyr))
Baselinenon-staple purchase
staple purchase
Gifts
Milk and Meat
Sorghum and
C/pea
Initial Deficit
deficit
Sorghum and
C/pea
Gifts
non-staple purchase
staple purchase
Milk and Meat
Food SourcesFood Sources
Response
deficit
non-staple purchase
staple purchase
Gifts
Milk and Meat
Sorghum and
C/pea
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Income sourcesIncome sources
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Baseline Initial Deficit Response
% b
ase
line
inco
me
Sorghum Milk sales Bush products
Water sales livestock sales ag labour
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
ExpenditureExpenditure
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Baseline Initial Deficit Response
% b
ase
line
exp
en
ditu
re
min.non-staple staple flexibilty
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Juba ValleyJuba Valley
GedoGedoMiddle JubaMiddle JubaLower JubaLower Juba
JUBA VALLEY
LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMSPASTORALISTSAGRO-PASTORALISTSRIVERINE
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Cereal ProductionCereal Production* PWA = Post War Average
Region
Main Cereal Production
Major factors affecting production
Gu 2003 prodn (MT)
Gu 2002 prodn (MT)
Gu 2003 Gu 2003
as % of 2002
as % of PWA*
GEDO 4665 4046 115 % 58 %
1.Delayed & poor Gu rainfall2. Prolonged dry spell3. Higher evapotranspiration (extreme wind blows)4. Severe bird attack
MIDDLE JUBBA
5363 11588
46 % 44 %
1. Delayed, below normal rainfall2. Prolonged dry spell3. Severe rodent attacks4. Insecurity (Buale)
LOWER JUBBA
6600 6746 98 % 85 %
1. Delayed, below normal rainfall2. Prolonged dry spell3. Insect infestation4. No hagar rains
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
General Livestock ConditionsGeneral Livestock ConditionsCompared Compared
w/ Last Yearw/ Last YearCompared w/ Compared w/ “Normal” Year“Normal” Year
Remarks (list notable Remarks (list notable exceptions)exceptions)
PasturePasture NormalNormal NormalNormal
WaterWater NormalNormal NormalNormal
DiseaseDisease NormalNormal NormalNormal Disease reported Disease reported in Badhadhein Badhadhe
MarketMarket NormalNormal NormalNormal
OverallOverall NormalNormal NormalNormal
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Integrated Food Security Outlook: Integrated Food Security Outlook: Overall Major Influencing FactorsOverall Major Influencing Factors
Positive FactorsPositive Factors
Good livestock Good livestock productionproduction Normal production in Normal production in irrigated areasirrigated areas Fair Livestock marketsFair Livestock markets Normal cross-border Normal cross-border tradetrade Security improvedSecurity improved
Negative FactorsNegative Factors
Delayed, poor and Delayed, poor and localized localized GuGu rainfall rainfall Prolonged dry spellProlonged dry spell Severe bird/rodent Severe bird/rodent attackattack Increased fuel PricesIncreased fuel Prices localized insecuritylocalized insecurity Higher non-staple Higher non-staple pricesprices
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Integrated Food Security Outlook: Integrated Food Security Outlook: Projected DeficitsProjected Deficits
in Areas of Concernin Areas of Concern (“poor” households) (“poor” households)
FEZFEZ DistrictsDistricts deficit deficit (scenario:(scenario:
deyr deyr 100%)100%)
deficit deficit scenario:scenario:
(deyr (deyr 50%)50%)
Southern Southern AgropastoralAgropastoral
Luq and Luq and DolowDolow
00 30 %30 %
Southern Juba Southern Juba Riverine Riverine dheshekdheshek
Sakow and Sakow and BualeBuale
00 15 %15 %
Lower Juba APLower Juba AP HagarHagar 00 10 %10 %
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
SHABELLE & COWPEA BELT
LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMSPASTORALISTSAGRO-PASTORALISTSRIVERINEURBAN
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Cereal ProductionCereal Production* PWA = Post War Average
RegionRegion
Cereal ProductionCereal Production
Major factors Major factors affecting affecting
productionproduction
Gu 2003 Gu 2003 productioproductio
n (MT)n (MT)
Gu 2002 Gu 2002 production production
(MT)(MT)
Gu Gu 20032003 Gu 2003Gu 2003
as % as % of of
2002 2002 as % of as % of PWA* PWA*
Lower Lower ShabelleShabelle 93,598 93,598 100,720100,720 93%93% 135%135%
Long Dry spellLong Dry spellPest infestationPest infestationPremature Premature harvestharvest
Middle Middle ShabelleShabelle 15,90015,900 20,77920,779 77%77% 123%123%
Long Dry spellLong Dry spellPest infestationPest infestationPremature Premature harvestharvest
Cowpea Cowpea BeltBelt 476476 4646
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
General Livestock ConditionsGeneral Livestock ConditionsCompared Compared
w/ Last Yearw/ Last YearCompared w/ Compared w/ “Normal” Year“Normal” Year
Remarks (list notable Remarks (list notable exceptions)exceptions)
PasturePasture PoorPoor PoorPoor Abnormal out-migrationAbnormal out-migrationOvergrazing at host areaOvergrazing at host area
WaterWater NormalNormal NormalNormal Water catchments dried up Water catchments dried up earlier earlier
DiseaseDisease NormalNormal NormalNormal No exceptional eventsNo exceptional events
MarketMarket NormalNormal NormalNormal NormalNormal
OverallOverall Below normalBelow normal Below NormalBelow Normal Decreased body weight and Decreased body weight and productionproduction
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Integrated Food Security Outlook: Integrated Food Security Outlook: Overall Major Influencing FactorsOverall Major Influencing Factors
Positive FactorsPositive FactorsFavorable ToTFavorable ToTAccess to loanAccess to loanLinkage to RiverineLinkage to RiverineHigh milk priceHigh milk price
Negative FactorsNegative FactorsErratic rainfallErratic rainfallHH stocks depletedHH stocks depletedReduced milk Prod.Reduced milk Prod.Lack of seedsLack of seedsHigh staple priceHigh staple priceLess job Less job opportunityopportunity
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Integrated Food Security Outlook: Integrated Food Security Outlook: Projected % of Food Deficit Projected % of Food Deficit
in Areas of Concernin Areas of Concern
FEZFEZ DistrictsDistricts DeficitDeficit
(Deyr 100%)(Deyr 100%)DeficitDeficit
(Deyr 50%)(Deyr 50%)
AP-AP-Rainfed Rainfed (sorghum(sorghum/ cattle) / cattle)
Balad, Jowhar Balad, Jowhar and and W/Weyne/AfgoyeW/Weyne/Afgoye
ZeroZero 25%25%
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Northern and Central Pastoral Northern and Central Pastoral Areas of ConcernAreas of Concern
NORTH WEST REGION
LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMSPASTORALISTSAGRO-PASTORALISTS
FISHINGURBAN
NORTH EAST ZONE
LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMSPASTORALISTSFISHING
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Vulnerable areas of NW Vulnerable areas of NW Somalia (Somaliland)Somalia (Somaliland)
Sool plateau (Sanag and Sool plateau (Sanag and Sool Regions)Sool Regions)
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Sool PlateauSool Plateau
Successive rain failure for the last 3-4 yearsSuccessive rain failure for the last 3-4 years Progressive asset depletion and income lossProgressive asset depletion and income loss Water prices have increased four times since the Water prices have increased four times since the
beginning of the prolonged drought; highly beginning of the prolonged drought; highly unusual trucking water in unusual trucking water in hagaa hagaa seasonseason
Distress coping strategies have led to severe Distress coping strategies have led to severe environmental degradationenvironmental degradation
High malnutrition rate among children (up to High malnutrition rate among children (up to 17%) 17%)
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Camel Calving rates From 1998-2003Camel Calving rates From 1998-2003Sool Plateau and lower NugalSool Plateau and lower Nugal
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Dayr98
Gu 99 Dayr99
Gu 00 Dayr00
Gu 01 Dayr01
Gu 02 Dary02
Gu 03
season/year
% c
alv
ing
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Current Seasonal Livestock Reproduction Current Seasonal Livestock Reproduction compared to Normalcompared to Normal
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Camel 2%
sheep Goat
Baseline
current
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Camel death rate (cumulative) Camel death rate (cumulative) in the last four yearsin the last four years
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2000 2001 2002 2003years
%
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Traditional camel herd dynamics vs Traditional camel herd dynamics vs current situationcurrent situation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Suckling calves <4 yrs olds >5 yrs females >5 yrs males
Baseline
Current
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Food security situation outlook Food security situation outlook Given a normal Given a normal deyrdeyr::
– All “poor” and “lower middle” will continue to be All “poor” and “lower middle” will continue to be food insecurefood insecure
– Slow recovery – even if Slow recovery – even if deyr deyr is good - as is good - as restocking rates are well below normal, and restocking rates are well below normal, and almost zero for camelalmost zero for camel
– Current herd size (35-40 shoats) has serious Current herd size (35-40 shoats) has serious food security implications for “poor”food security implications for “poor”
– Increased likelihood to exit from pastoral system Increased likelihood to exit from pastoral system + huge exodus to towns+ huge exodus to towns
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Vulnerable areas of NE Somalia Vulnerable areas of NE Somalia (Puntland) (Puntland)
and Central Regionsand Central Regions
Conflict in Central Regions (Abudwak, Conflict in Central Regions (Abudwak, Hobio, El Bur)Hobio, El Bur)
Sool Plateau of Bari regionSool Plateau of Bari regionLower Nugal (small part)Lower Nugal (small part)
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Sorghum Sorghum BeltBelt
SORGHUM BELT
LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMSPASTORALISTSAGRO-PASTORALISTSRIVERINE
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Cereal ProductionCereal Production* PWA = Post War Average
Region
Main Cereal Production
Major factors affecting
production
Gu 2003 production
(MT)
Gu 2002 production
(MT)
Gu 2003 Gu 2003
as % of 2002
as % of PWA*
Hiraan 890 670 +33% -83%
• Poor & erratic rainfall, heavy infestation of pests, poor cultural practices, high fuel prices (irrigation), river level fluctuation (flooding)
Bay 29050 63180 - 54% - 36%
• Poor & erratic rainfall, heavy infestation of pests, poor cultural practices, insecurity & high transport costs.
Bakool 335 1200 -72% -90%• As above except insecurity
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
General Livestock ConditionsGeneral Livestock ConditionsCompared Compared
w/ Last w/ Last YearYear
Compared Compared “Normal” “Normal”
YearYear
Remarks (list notable exceptions)Remarks (list notable exceptions)
PasturePasture NormalNormal normalnormal Agro-pastoral/riverine (Hiran) poor -cattle Agro-pastoral/riverine (Hiran) poor -cattle migration to Ethiopia.migration to Ethiopia. less fodder in some crop failure areas less fodder in some crop failure areas (agro-pastoral of Bay & Bakool)(agro-pastoral of Bay & Bakool)
WaterWater NormalNormal normalnormal Water scarcity in parts of Water scarcity in parts of Qansaxdhere/Dinsor & HuddurQansaxdhere/Dinsor & Huddur
DiseaseDisease NormalNormal normalnormal Exceptional unidentified diseases reported Exceptional unidentified diseases reported in Raxole of Dinsor districtin Raxole of Dinsor district
MarketMarket NormalNormal normalnormal High demand for cattle improved High demand for cattle improved purchasing power of pastoral and agro-purchasing power of pastoral and agro-pastoral FEGs (Hiran).pastoral FEGs (Hiran). High cattle/shoat meat demand in Dinsor & High cattle/shoat meat demand in Dinsor & Qansaxdhere from GarissaQansaxdhere from Garissa
OverallOverall NormalNormal NormalNormal Terms of trade (livestock/cereal & Terms of trade (livestock/cereal & milk/cereal) favourable for livestock owners milk/cereal) favourable for livestock owners
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Integrated Food Security Outlook: Integrated Food Security Outlook: Overall Major Influencing FactorsOverall Major Influencing Factors
Positive FactorsPositive Factors Good prices of livestock and Good prices of livestock and livestock productslivestock products Significant old cereal stocks Significant old cereal stocks from last Deyr season from last Deyr season improving current cereal improving current cereal availability.availability. Relative stability in Hiran & Relative stability in Hiran & Bakool Bakool
Negative FactorsNegative Factors Insecurity in Baidoa areaInsecurity in Baidoa areaDrought/flood (ETHIOPIA) in Drought/flood (ETHIOPIA) in HiranHiranPredicted high cereal prices Predicted high cereal prices (positive/negative)(positive/negative)Extreme seed scarcity Extreme seed scarcity (bakool & Hiran)(bakool & Hiran)
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Integrated Food Security Outlook: Integrated Food Security Outlook: Projected % of Food deficits for “poor” Projected % of Food deficits for “poor”
in Areas of Concernin Areas of Concern FEZFEZ DistrictsDistricts DeficitDeficit
(Deyr 100%)(Deyr 100%)DeficitDeficit
(Deyr 50%)(Deyr 50%)
Agro-Agro-pastoral pastoral
Beledweyne,Beledweyne, Buloburto & Buloburto &
JalalaqsiJalalaqsi0%0% 30%30%
RiverineRiverine Buloburto, Buloburto, Beledwein & Beledwein &
JalalaqsiJalalaqsi0%0% 50-60 %50-60 %
Agro-Agro-pastoralpastoral
Hudur, Elberde & Hudur, Elberde & Tieglow, Rabdure, Tieglow, Rabdure,
WajidWajid25%25% 39%39%
Bay-Bakool Bay-Bakool Agro-Agro-pastoralpastoral
Rabdure, Tieglow, Rabdure, Tieglow, Bardhere, Dinsor & Bardhere, Dinsor &
QansaxdhereQansaxdhere0%0% 56% 56%
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Map Legend
Districts
fez-district
No Deficit
Deficit 0 to 10%
Deficit 10% to 20%
Deficit 20% to 30%
Deficit greater than 30%
Documents
0 K m 6 5 6 K m
Deficits - Deyr Rains 100% of Average
Disclaimer: This map is an approximation and may contain omissions.
FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Map Legend
Districts
fez-district
No Deficit
Deficit 0% to 10%
Deficit 10% to 20%
Deficit 20% to 30%
Deficit greater than 30%
Documents
0 K m 6 5 6 K m
Deficits - Deyr Rains 50% of Average
Disclaimer: This map is an approximation and may contain omissions.