Frost & Sullivan Business Mobile Communications Analyst Briefing
-
Upload
frost-sullivan -
Category
Technology
-
view
2.128 -
download
2
description
Transcript of Frost & Sullivan Business Mobile Communications Analyst Briefing
Business Mobile Communications –Breaking Away from the Confines of the Desk
A Plethora of Endpoints for Diverse Customer Needs
Alaa Saayed, Research Analyst
Information Communication and Telecommunications
September 24, 2008
2
110 Million Office Workers
Enterprise Worker Classification
Source: Frost & Sullivan
3
Enterprise Worker Classification
90 % are at Least 20% of the Time on the Go
Source: Frost & Sullivan
4
Enterprise Worker Classification
90 % are at Least 20% of the Time on the Go
15%
Office Workers
Office Workers
Mobile Workforce
Executivesand Management
65%
20%
Source: Frost & Sullivan
5
Enterprise Style Classification
On The Road
Building Premises
Client Site/Branch Office
On CampusOffice Worker
Airport
Public Hotspot
Home
Hotel
Source: Frost & Sullivan
6
Industry Worker Classification
Estimated Workers
Mobile Comm.
Necessity
IT and Telecom Spending
Medium Very HighLow/Medium Low/Medium
Low/Medium MediumVery HighMedium MediumMedium
11 M20 M 9 M 3 M 6.5 M 15 M
Manufacturing and
Warehousing
Healthcare Education Government Finance Retail
Very HighLow/Medium
Source: Frost & Sullivan
7
How Does Frost & Sullivan Classify Enterprise Mobile Endpoints?
Mobility Gateway SwitchPBX
Enterprise mobile endpoints are communicational devices and applications that are paid,
subsidized (up front or through a reimbursement) and managed by an enterprise business.
The device and/or application are, in turn, integrated with the rest of the enterprise
Communications infrastructure (premise-based or hosted system) to extend voice, video,
and data communication.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Business Mobile Communication Scope
8
Corded Phones
Cordless Phones
Virtual Phones
DECT
PBX System
IP PhonesDigital PhonesAnalog Phones
Digital Deskphones IP DeskphonesAnalog Deskphones
Source: Frost & Sullivan
IP DECT/SIP DECT
Mobile Phones
First Level FMC
Second Level FMCVoWLAN Phones
Dual-Mode
Fixed Mobile Clients
Analog Cordless
Softphones
VoWLAN Phones
Single-Mode
Business Mobile Communication Endpoints
9
VoWLAN Devices
Picture source: Nokia, Polycom, and RIM
10
VoWLAN Single-Mode Findings
• Growth: Available since 2000 – Considerable traction.
• Main Participants: Cisco, Polycom's SpectraLink, Vocera, Motorola, and OEM’s
• Main Customers: Verticals such as healthcare, manufacturing, and retail.
• Average Price: $300-400
• Major Trends:
• Major Drivers 1) Deployment of WLAN and IP telephony – 2) Vertical adoption
3) Advanced handsets 4) Long-term cost Savings
• Major Challengesand Restraints:
�Higher penetration of WLAN infrastructure �New Wi-Fi standard (802.11n)�New acquisitions�Emergence of new verticals
1) Perception of security and QoS 2) Cost of implementation 3) Alternative solutions, 4) Slow standard ratification
11
VoWLAN Enabled Dual-Mode Findings
• Growth: New technology – 2006-2007: mostly trials – Great future potential.
• Main Participants: Mobile manufacturers: Motorola, Nokia, RIM, and Samsung
IP telephony providers: Avaya, Cisco, and Siemens
• Main Customers: Road and corridor warriors – Carpeted office
• Average Price: $500-650
• Major Trends:
• Major Drivers 1) Continuous entry of participants - 2) Growing popularity of consumer smartphones – 3) New benefits to customers
• Major Challenges and Restraints
�New partnerships and acquisitions�Upsurge of “Second Level” FMC clients�Enterprise WiMax
1) Lack of clear business models – 2) Limited service provider interest 3) High prices - 4) Cellular inertia
12
VoWLAN Forecast
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2007. Source: Frost & Sullivan
VoWLAN Device Market: Unit Shipment and Revenue Forecasts (North America), 2006-2014
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Reven
ues (
$ M
illi
on
)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Un
its (
Mil
lio
n)
Revenues ($ Million) Units (Million)
2007 Units: 254,000
2007 Revenues: US$110.5 million
Revenue CAGR Single-Mode (2007-2014): 25.1%
Revenue CAGR Dual-Mode (2007-2014): 131.8%
VoWLAN phones will represent 10% of total IP phone shipments in 2014.
13
DECT Devices
Picture source: Polycom, Siemens, and snom
14
• Growth: Mature technology – 20 years of existence – Undergoing transformation
• Main Participants: Aastra, ALU, Ascom, Polycom’s KIRK, NEC-Phillips and Siemens
• Main Customers: Businesses with legacy systems / with mobility needs and no WLAN / with mobility needs and WLAN for data only – Vertical and SMBs
• Average Price: $200
• Major Trends:
• Major Drivers 1) Maturity and stability – 2) Voice quality and security
3) Cost effectiveness 4) Integration with IP telephony
• Major Challenges & Restraints
DECT Findings
�Expansion of DECT 6.0�SIP and IP DECT – an alternative�New features and services
1) Image perception – 2) Price erosion 3) Limited or no data integration 4) Limited popularity in NA
15
DECT Forecast
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2007. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Enterprise DECT Phone Market: Unit Shipment and Revenue Forecasts, (North America) 2006-2014
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
135
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Reven
ues (
$M
illi
on
)
0.00
0.15
0.30
0.45
0.60
0.75
Un
its (
Mil
lio
n)
Revenues ($ Million) Units (Million)
2007 Units: 80,000
2007 Revenues: US$15.2 million
Revenue CAGR (2007-2014): 32.0%
Units CAGR (2007-2014): 33.9%
Competing with VoWLAN single-mode devices, DECT will represent 35% of the combined single-mode and DECT shipment in 2014
16
Softphones
Picture source: Counterpath, Netphone, and Zultys
17
Softphone Findings
• Growth: Introduced 1995 – Hold major potential – Default IP desktop extensions
• Main Participants: IP Telephony providers: Avaya, Cisco, Nortel, Mitel, and Siemens.
Sofphone vendors: Counterpath, Nuvoiz, and IP Blue Software Solution
• Main Customers: Travelling executives, road warriors, telecommuters, and call-center agents
• Average Price: $25-50 range per-user basis
• Major Trends:
• Major Drivers 1) The growth of IP telephony – 2) The growth of IP desktop phones
3) The flexibility of softphones - 4) The popularity of consumer soft phones
• Major Challenges & Restraints
�Improved features and services�Emergence of UC
1) QoS – 2) Softphone security – 3) Pricing pressures – 4) Lack of habit
18
Softphone Forecast
Enterprise Softphone Markets: Units Shipment and Revenue Forecasts (North America), 2006-2014
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2007. Source: Frost & Sullivan
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Years
Reven
ues (
$ M
illi
on
)
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Un
its (
Mil
lio
n)
Revenues ($ Million) Units (Million)
2007 Units: 461,000 units
2007 Revenues: US$18.9 million
Revenue CAGR (2007-2014): 32.5%
Units CAGR (2007-2014): 37.1%
Roughly Softphone shipment will represent 10% of the total IP phoneshipment in 2014 (80% to IP desk phone users and 20% to non-desk phone users).
19
FMC Clients
Picture source: Cicero Networks and D2 Technologies
20
FMC Client Findings
• Classification: “First Level” PBX client extensions and “Second Level” FMC clients
• Growth: Vey high potential
• Main Participants: IP Telephony providers: Avaya, Cisco, Nortel, and Siemens.Soft manufacturers: Counterpath’s Firsthand, DiVitas, Agito NetworksOthers: Tango Networks, Telepo, OnRelay, and Varaha systems.
• Main Customers: Travelling executives, road warriors, and mobile professionals.
• Average Price: $50-100 range per-user basis for “First Level” PBX clients$200-300 range per phone for “Second Level” PBX clients
• Trends
• Current Market: A few hundred of thousands? No forecast available yet.
�PBX client extensions evolve into full FMC clients�MUC - a “Third Level” FMC client or not?
21
Focus Points
Total Market Snapshot
22
Total Forecast
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Un
its
(M
illio
n)
DECT VoWLAN Single-Mode VoWLAN Dual-Mode Softphones
Business Mobile Communications: Units Shipment Forecasts (North America), 2006-2014
Source: Frost & Sullivan
23
Your Feedback is Important to Us
Growth Forecasts?
Competitive Structure?
Emerging Trends?
Strategic Recommendations?
Other?
Please inform us by taking our survey.
What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan?
24
For Additional Information
• To leave a comment, ask the analyst a question, or receive the free audio segment that accompanies this presentation, please contact Stephanie Ochoa, Social Media Manager at (210) 247-2421, via email, [email protected], or on Twitter at http://twitter.com/stephanieochoa.