From Production to From Production to Filtering: Filtering:

Changing Patterns of Changing Patterns of Online ExclusivityOnline Exclusivity

Matthew HindmanMatthew HindmanAssistant ProfessorAssistant Professor

Arizona State UniversityArizona State University

Democratizing the Flow of Democratizing the Flow of InformationInformation

EndEnd--toto--end architectureend architectureDecentralized content creation Decentralized content creation Low barriers to entryLow barriers to entry

Common claims: Common claims: Freedom of the press no longer Freedom of the press no longer ““limited to those who limited to those who own oneown one”” ((LieblingLiebling 1946)1946)““Uniquely democratic mediumUniquely democratic medium”” (CT Sup. Ct. 2005)(CT Sup. Ct. 2005)SunsteinSunstein, et al.: Internet = end of broadcasting, et al.: Internet = end of broadcasting

The Limits of DemocratizationThe Limits of DemocratizationWhy are these claims wrong?Why are these claims wrong?

Some content still expensive to produceSome content still expensive to produceSelfSelf--perpetuating, winnersperpetuating, winners--taketake--all patternsall patterns……

……in the structure of the Webin the structure of the Web……in trafficin traffic

Importance of search enginesImportance of search enginesUser preference and (lack of) skillUser preference and (lack of) skill

What does the public seek out? What does the public seek out? How do they search?How do they search?

Emergence of social elitesEmergence of social elites

NotNot--SoSo--Cheap ContentCheap ContentAmazon.comAmazon.com, , EbayEbay, etc. all have billions of dollars of , etc. all have billions of dollars of infrastructureinfrastructure

NewspapersNewspapersPaper, ink, and delivery only a small part of total expensePaper, ink, and delivery only a small part of total expense

Another example: search engines Another example: search engines Yahoo and Google > 80 % of US market Yahoo and Google > 80 % of US market Microsoft has spent 100s of millions to catch upMicrosoft has spent 100s of millions to catch up

Political organizationsPolitical organizationsOnline organization still favors those with $, expertise, Online organization still favors those with $, expertise, administrative capacity, existing social networksadministrative capacity, existing social networks

The Power of SearchThe Power of SearchSearch engines the main navigational aidSearch engines the main navigational aid

Political sites: 27% of all traffic comes directly from Political sites: 27% of all traffic comes directly from search engines (search engines (HitwiseHitwise))

ItIt’’s not search engines by themselves, and its not search engines by themselves, and it’’s s not just economicsnot just economics

WinnersWinners--taketake--all patterns in linksall patterns in linksAll modern search engines reflect thisAll modern search engines reflect this

User search behaviorUser search behaviorSimple searchesSimple searchesSearches for specific sources, not types of contentSearches for specific sources, not types of content

““GooglearchyGooglearchy””““..The rule of the most heavily linked...The rule of the most heavily linked.””

WinnersWinners--taketake--all distribution of inbound linksall distribution of inbound linksOver the entire WebOver the entire WebWithin communities of political WebsitesWithin communities of political Websites

Abortion, Congress, Gun Control, etc.Abortion, Congress, Gun Control, etc.

Why do these matter?Why do these matter?Links exist to be followedLinks exist to be followed

More links = more opportunities to direct trafficMore links = more opportunities to direct trafficLinks guide search enginesLinks guide search engines

Search DataSearch DataNovember 2005 traffic data from November 2005 traffic data from HitwiseHitwiseCompetitive IntelligenceCompetitive Intelligence

AnonymizedAnonymized data from large US ISPsdata from large US ISPsSampled data from 10M US usersSampled data from 10M US users

1020 top political queries, Nov. 2005 (19% of total)1020 top political queries, Nov. 2005 (19% of total)

CategoryCategory % of queries% of queries % of traffic% of traffic

Political issuesPolitical issues 49%49% 38%38%

SiteSite--specific searchesspecific searches 15%15% 27%27%Political PersonalitiesPolitical Personalities 19%19% 17%17%

Political OrganizationsPolitical Organizations 13%13% 12%12%

MiscellaneousMiscellaneous 5%5% 6%6%

Search Engine ConvergenceSearch Engine Convergence

CategoryCategory % of traffic% of traffic

Political issuesPolitical issues 38%38%27%27%17%17%12%12%6%6%

SiteSite--specific searchesspecific searchesPolitical PersonalitiesPolitical PersonalitiesPolitical OrganizationsPolitical OrganizationsMiscellaneousMiscellaneous

Top SiteTop Site Top 5Top 5 Top 10Top 10

34%34% 58%58% 45%45%100%100% n/an/a n/an/a47%47% 68%68% 52%52%75%75% 70%70% 49%49%36%36% 51%51% 38%38%

Overlap between Yahoo and Google search results:

Concentration on the WebConcentration on the Web

Site RankSite Rank TrafficTrafficTop 10Top 10 27.5%27.5%Top 20Top 20 31.8%31.8%Top 50Top 50 37.0%37.0%Top 100Top 100 41.1%41.1%Top 200Top 200 45.7%45.7%Top 500Top 500 51.9%51.9%

Source: Hitwise Competitive Intelligence, January 2006. N=789,000 (Data from all Websites tracked by Hitwise)

Political Website ConcentrationPolitical Website Concentration

Site RankSite Rank TrafficTraffic

Top 10Top 10 29.6%29.6%

Top 20Top 20 41.5%41.5%

Top 50Top 50 61.4%61.4%

Top 100Top 100 77.3%77.3%

Top 200Top 200 90.9%90.9%

Source: Hitwise Competive Intelligence, January 2006. N=518 (Data from all political sites tracked by Hitwise)

King and CommonsKing and CommonsTwo parts of this story:Two parts of this story:

““The long tailThe long tail””Lower end of the market is incredibly fragmentedLower end of the market is incredibly fragmented

The powerThe power--law headlaw headWinnersWinners--taketake--all traffic patternsall traffic patternsMORE MORE concentrated than traditional mediaconcentrated than traditional media

More total market share for the top media sourcesMore total market share for the top media sourcesMuch higher concentration metrics (HHI, Much higher concentration metrics (HHI, GiniGini CoeffCoeff., etc.)., etc.)

Political Political BloggingBloggingCheap to produceCheap to produce

Area where the rhetoric of democratization is loudestArea where the rhetoric of democratization is loudest““Guys in pajamasGuys in pajamas”” taking on taking on ““elite mediaelite media””““Citizen journalismCitizen journalism””

Shift in political messages quite dramaticShift in political messages quite dramaticTop Top blogblog, , DailyKos.comDailyKos.com, attracts 800,000+ visits/day (, attracts 800,000+ visits/day (SiteMeterSiteMeter))

Compared to New York Times at 1.5M / DayCompared to New York Times at 1.5M / DayBlogs have the largest raw readership of any form of opinion Blogs have the largest raw readership of any form of opinion journalism in U.S. historyjournalism in U.S. history

Who Are These Guys?Who Are These Guys?They are guysThey are guys

93% of traffic to male93% of traffic to male--published blogspublished blogsReadership roughly 60% male (Pew)Readership roughly 60% male (Pew)

They are whiteThey are whiteOnly one AfricanOnly one African--American in top 80 blogsAmerican in top 80 blogs

They are professionalsThey are professionalsPolitical consultants, lawyers, professors, journalists, executiPolitical consultants, lawyers, professors, journalists, executives, ves, business owners, technology workersbusiness owners, technology workers

They are highly educatedThey are highly educated65% of 65% of blogblog traffic goes to traffic goes to blogblog publishers with a doctorate (J.D., publishers with a doctorate (J.D., Ph.D., M.D.)Ph.D., M.D.)

Reality does not match the Reality does not match the ““average Joeaverage Joe”” rhetoricrhetoric

ConclusionConclusionProduction of some types of content much less Production of some types of content much less

exclusiveexclusiveFor citizens, this creates as many problems as it For citizens, this creates as many problems as it solvessolves

Herbert SimonHerbert Simon““What information consumes is rather obvious: it What information consumes is rather obvious: it consumes the attention of its recipients. Hence a wealth of consumes the attention of its recipients. Hence a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention, and a need to information creates a poverty of attention, and a need to allocate that attention efficiently among the overabundance allocate that attention efficiently among the overabundance of information sources that might consume itof information sources that might consume it”” (1971).(1971).

Thank YouThank You

Matthew HindmanMatthew HindmanPolitical Science DepartmentPolitical Science Department

Arizona State UniversityArizona State UniversityHindman@ASU.eduHindman@ASU.edu

From Production to Filtering: �Changing Patterns of Online ExclusivityDemocratizing the Flow of InformationThe Limits of DemocratizationNot-So-Cheap ContentThe Power of Search“Googlearchy”Search DataSearch Engine ConvergenceConcentration on the WebPolitical Website ConcentrationKing and CommonsPolitical BloggingWho Are These Guys?ConclusionThank You