From De-Urbanization to Selective Re -Urbanization: The ... · American society and economy....
Transcript of From De-Urbanization to Selective Re -Urbanization: The ... · American society and economy....
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From De-Urbanization to Selective Re-Urbanization: The Transformation of American Shrinking Cities in the 21st
CenturyALAN MALLACH, SENIOR FELLOW
CENTER FOR COMMUNITY PROGRESS
WASHINGTON, DC
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HistoryThe story of American older industrial cities during most of the second half of the 20th century was one of almost unremitting decline.
0.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
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1950 1990
Population change 1950-1990 (1950 = 1)
New York Chicago Philadelphia
Detroit Baltimore Cleveland
St. Louis Washington Boston
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History
Decline was fueled by Suburbanization Regional migration De-industrialization
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The 20th century narrative was one of urban decline
“The cities are
finished”
“we should try to help people….as quickly as
possible facilitate transition to new locations and jobs.”
“Ladies and gentlemen, the Bronx is
burning”
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The narrative began to shift near the end of the century
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1998
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Conditions have changed
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New York Chicago Philadelphia
Detroit Baltimore Cleveland
St. Louis Washington Boston
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1950 1990
Population change 1950-1990 (1950 = 1)
New York Chicago Philadelphia
Detroit Baltimore Cleveland
St. Louis Washington Boston
Population change 1990-2017 (1990 = 1)
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Change is visible in American cities
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Many cities are outpacing national trends
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DC BOS
BALT
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E US
CPI 1
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2015
Growth in median income 1999 to 2015
0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%
10.00%Job growth 2008 to 2014
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A hierarchy of urban change has replaced a pattern of consistent declineBoomtowns Strong but partial
revivalLimited revival Little revival
BostonWashington DCNew York City
ChicagoBaltimorePhiladelphiaPittsburghSt Louis
Cincinnati DetroitBuffaloMilwaukee
FlintYoungstownGaryDaytonCamden NJ
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This shift was driven by the emergence of a new urban economy
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Health care &education
Manufacturing
JOBS BY SECTOR 1950-2015
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Baltimore Cleveland Pittsburgh
Manufacturing1967
Manufacturing2015
Eds and Meds 2015
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…and a rising new demographic: a young, well-educated population – the “young grads”
Share of population over 18 who are 25 to 34 with BA or higher degree
2000
2016
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…creating a growing consumption sector
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These changes are transforming cities
Baltimore
St Louis
Cleveland
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Or are they?
Baltimore
Detroit
St Louis
Detroit
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The revival is real butso are the poverty andinequality
They are inextricably linked
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Inequality is….
SpatialEconomicRacial
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Baltimore’s White “L”
Median salesprice >$200K
60%+ Non-Latino White Young BA+ clusters
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and its “Black Butterfly”
Poverty >20%
Percentage African-American
Housing vacancies >20%
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The population of young university graduates is spreading but not everywhere
Baltimore 200025,775 25-34 BA+ Baltimore 2015
48,533 25-34 BA+
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Wealth is concentrating in fewer places
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Share of total citywide salesby dollar valuein Baltimore inareas wheremedian >$200K
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Cities are adding jobs, but city residents aren’t filling them
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Change in number of jobs and jobholders inBaltimore 2002-2015
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Who works in Pittsburgh?
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Vacancy and abandonment are spreading
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Baltimore 1990-2010
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Racial disparities are growing
Change in median household income 2000 to 2017
CPI INCREASE 2000 TO 2017
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Baltimore St Louis Pittsburgh Milwaukee Philadelphia Cleveland Detroit
WHITE BLACK
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Areas of concentrated and segregated poverty are spreading
2000
2015Areas with >30% poverty rate and >50% black population
Detroit 2000-2015
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Areas of concentrated and segregated poverty
in 2000 and 2016
Declining areas: areas of concentrated and
segregated poverty in 2016 but not in 2000
TOLEDO 2000 TO 2016
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More neighborhoods are declining than gentrifying
GentrificationNeighborhood decline
Indianapolis
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Neighborhood change in Chicago 2000 to 2017
Only seven out of 229 largely (>60%) black low or middle-income neighborhoods in Chicago trended upward from 2000 to 2017.
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to low income Remained thesame
To upper income
Middle Income Neighborhoods
<25% black >60% black
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Remained thesame
To middle orupper income
Low Income Neighborhoods
<25% black >60% black
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What does this mean? American cities are doing better than at any
time in the last 60+ years.Yet more people cannot make a living wage and
are living in poverty, and poor housing and neighborhood conditions.
American cities are creating jobs and drawing billions of dollars in investment.Yet more neighborhoods, particularly African-
American neighborhoods, are losing ground.
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Closing observations
The past, present andfuture of America’s shrinking (or ex-shrinking) cities
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Urban shrinkage in the American context Urban shrinkage took place at a time when the
United States population was steadily growing. Shrinkage reflected fundamental regional and
economic changes in the United States Shrinkage constituted a de-urbanization of the
American society and economy. Shrinking cities, in the American context, also
concentrated social and economic disadvantage and disinvestment.
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The era of de-urbanization is over
The United States is now in a period of uneven or selective re-urbanization
The social and economic legacies of de-urbanization remain
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The American urban hierarchy
LOCATION
SIZE (critical mass)SMALL LARGE
COASTAL
INLAND
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A hierarchy of urban change has replaced a pattern of consistent declineBoomtowns Strong but partial
revivalLimited revival Little revival
BostonWashington DCNew York City
ChicagoBaltimorePhiladelphiaPittsburghSt Louis
Cincinnati DetroitBuffaloMilwaukee
FlintYoungstownGaryDaytonCamden NJ
SMALL CITIES
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Three central challenges
The challenge of sustaining and extending revival
The challenge of building equity and rebuilding opportunity
The challenge of finding a future for small cities
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Thank you.