Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. [email protected] Fred specializes in...
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Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. [email protected] Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeather’s parent company as a meteorologist in 1990. 2012 Spring Weather Outlook May Update
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Transcript of Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. [email protected] Fred specializes in...
Fred SchmudeStormWatch ManagerImpactWeather, Inc. [email protected]
Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeather’s parent company as a meteorologist in 1990.
2012 Spring Weather OutlookMay Update
ImpactWeather helps our clients worldwide operate safely, effectively and efficiently in all weather conditions.
Fred SchmudeStormWatch ManagerImpactWeather, Inc. [email protected]
Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeather’s parent company as a meteorologist in 1990.
2012 Spring Weather OutlookMay Update
Spring Weather Outlook for 2012
•Worldwide water temperature trends (including El Niño risks and effects)
•Review of spring tornado and high wind reports
•Review of the April temperature & precipitation pattern
• May weekly and monthly forecast (find the most vulnerable severe risk areas) May, June and July projected flow pattern & T/P forecast (identify most vulnerable severe risk areas)
•Summer outlook, including a brief tropical outlook
•Soil moisture and drought outlooks for the spring
•Tropics Sneak Preview
Warming WaterDeveloping El Niño?
PDO Cold Phase Colder
Water
SmallNegative
IOD
Current(-0.1C)
El Niño
La Niña
~+1.3C...Moderate El Niño
El Niño
La Niña
Warmer Water Enhances Thunderstorm Development
Upper air outflow enhance upper-level
wind shear
Effects of Warming Water in Eastern Tropical Pacific
Forecast ENSO Trends•Initiation of EL Niño by early summer
•Likely to peak out in the early part of 2013
•Likely to be moderate in intensity at about (+1.0 to +1.4C)
REVIEWTornadoes, Temperature, Rainfall and Flow Pattern from January thru May 1, 2012
Avera
ge Tr
end
2005
-201
1
Current #
Average
Projected Precipitation Outlook for Apr-Jun, 2012
ElevatedSevere Risk
Area
BESTCHANCE
Mean Storm Track
2011
2008
Projection~1500
Proj
ectio
nCurrent
MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL!+8 to +16F
ABOVENORMAL!+3 to +6F
Projected Temperature Outlook for April, 2012
WARMER
WARMER
North America April Temperature Anomalies
WETWET
WETWET
WET
DRY DRY
DRY
WET
WET
WETWET
WET
WET
WET
DRIER
DRIER
DRIER
DRIER
Projected Precipitation Outlook for April, 2012
Lower Pressure
Lower Pressure
HigherPressure
HigherPressure
HigherPressure
April Mean Flow Pattern
April Mean Flow Pattern/Temp Overlay
FORECAST
+4 to +8F
-3 to -6F
Mostly
Dry
Mostly
Dry
Mostly
Dry
Weather Trends for May 8th-14th, 2012
STORMY
UNSETTLED
NearNorma
l
NearNorma
l
NearNorma
l
+2 to +4F
+3 to +6F
-2 to -4F
HEAVY RAIN&
FLOODING RISK
-1 to -3F
NearNorma
l
UNSETTLED
UNSETTLED
Mostly
Dry
Weather Trends for May 15th-21st, 2012
Warmer
ThanNorma
lWarm
er Than
Normal
Warmer
ThanNorma
l
Cooler Than
Normal
Cooler Than
Normal
NearNorma
l
STORMY
UNSETTLED
Mostly
Dry
Mostly
Dry
Mostly
Dry
Warm
er Than
Normal
NearNorma
l
Projected Temperature Outlook for May, 2012
Projected Precipitation Outlook for May, 2012
H
H
HH
L
LL
L
Mean Storm
Track
WARMER
WARMER
COOLER
Enhanced SevereWeather Risk
Projected Flow Pattern For May-July, 2012
Projected Temperature Outlook for May-Jul, 2012
Enhanced SevereWeather Risk
Projected Precipitation Outlook for May-Jul, 2012
Projected Temperature Outlook for July-Sept, 2012
Projected Precipitation Outlook for July-Sept, 2012
El Niño
COOLER WATER
•Monitor for Home Grown Storm Gulf/ W Car.Tropics
“Sneak Peek” For 2012
Higher WesterlyWind Shear Likely“Negative Factor”
“Another Negative Factor”
•Risk will be lower than normal for a TC strike•However, some very memorable TCs have occurred during +ENSO events •Preliminary estimates call for 10-5-2
Abnormally Dry (yellow)Moderate Drought (tan)
Severe Drought (red)
Exceptional Drought (dark red)
DROUGHT
DROUGHT
DROUGHT
WET SOIL
• Worldwide weather forecasting and notification 24/7• Seasonal outlook forecasting• Severe terrestrial weather monitoring and automated notification• Offshore/marine forecasting year-round• Customized weather websites• Direct consultation with a meteorologist• Business Continuity, Employee Resiliency and Response Plan ConsultingWebinar Questions:
[email protected] information(877) 792-3220
