Framework for Assessing Adaptive Capacity in Social-Ecological Systems
description
Transcript of Framework for Assessing Adaptive Capacity in Social-Ecological Systems
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Framework for Assessing Adaptive Capacity in Social-Ecological Systems
Meha Jain, Ph.D. CandidateDept of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology
Columbia University
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Governance of Adaptation
• Need to understand autonomous adaptation and drivers of adaptive capacity to design effective adaptation policies• Framework• Case Study
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Framework Goals• Identify which socio-economic, biophysical,
and perceptional factors enhance adaptive capacity
• Identify current gaps in research methodology and important next steps for adaptation research
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Methods• Searched for studies that assess the socio-
economic, biophysical, and perceptional factors that are associated with increased adaptive capacity • ISI Web of Knowledge• 200 studies that were most cited• Span the disciplines of anthropology,
economics, geography, psychology, and social-ecology
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Factors Associated With Adaptive Capacity
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Adaptation Research Next Steps
• Consider multiple factors in the same analysis
• Multi-disciplinary
• Explicitly consider climate as a driving factor
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Economic
Decision to Cope
Climate
Biophysical
Perceptional
Social
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Adaptive
Economic
Decision to Cope
Climate
Biophysical
Perceptional
Social
Current Research Limitations
• Quantify whether a changed behavior is actually adaptive
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Current Research Limitations
• Understand the scale of interactions
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Current Research Limitations
• Understand the scale of interactions
Liter
atur
e Re
view
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Current Research Limitations
• Understand the scale of interactions
Liter
atur
e Re
view
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New FrameworkFr
amew
ork
Effects
Multiple Drivers
Natio
nal o
r Glo
bal S
cale
Regi
onal
Sca
le
Loca
l Sca
le
Decision-making
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Agricultural Communities in Northwest India
Case
Stu
dy
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Study Area• Hierarchical study
design• Household-level
Surveys• Regional remote
sensing analyses
Met
hods
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Household-level Adaptation• Are farmers shifting behavior based
on climate variability? • Which socio-economic, biophysical,
and perceptional factors are associated with farmers who adapt?
• Are these coping strategies adaptive?
Hous
ehol
d-Sc
ale
Effects
Multiple Drivers
Decision-making
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Adaptation Strategies• Switch crop type• Shift planting date• Alter cropping intensity
Water-intensive Drought-tolerant
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Main Monsoon CropsCotton Cash-Crop
Short DurationCastor Cash-Crop
Long DurationSorghum Household-use
Short DurationMillet Household-use
Short Duration
Wat
er In
tens
ive
Hous
ehol
d-Sc
ale
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Crop Planting Date by Rainfall
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-3
-2
-1
1 2 3Adjusted R2= .173
Previous Crop Failure
Water Insecurity
Precipitation Required to Sow
Land Owned
Asset Index
Hous
ehol
d-Sc
ale
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Adjusted R2= .127
Land Owned
Soil Fertility
Date Planted
# of Irrigations
Amt of Fertilizer
Amt of Pesticides
Predictors of Cotton Yield
Parameter Value
Hous
ehol
d-Sc
ale
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Regional-level Adaptation
• How consistent are these patterns at the regional scale?
Effects
Multiple Drivers
Regi
onal
Sca
le
Decision-making
Loca
l Sca
le
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Study Area• Hierarchical study
design• Household-level
Surveys• Regional remote
sensing analyses• Assess cropping
patterns and their association with climate
Met
hods
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First Planting Date
Crop 1 Crop 2
May November April
Remote Sensing AnalysesRe
gion
al-S
cale
MODIS (250 m) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI)
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WaterSingle Double Triple
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Association with Climate
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Rainfall (avg mm/day – TRMM)Cropping Intensity
Regi
onal
-Sca
le
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WaterLowMedium High
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Conclusions• Farmers alter cropping strategies based
on inter-annual rainfall variability at both local and regional scales
• Farmers with irrigation access are less likely to alter cropping strategies
• Yield is best explained by number of irrigations but is not affected by planting date
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Conclusions• Framework allows us to assess:• the relative importance of various inter-
disciplinary drivers for decision-making• whether coping strategies are adaptive• whether our results are generalizeable
across a broader region
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AcknowledgementsAdvising CommitteeDr. Ruth DeFries, Dr. Shahid NaeemDr. Trevor Birkenholtz, Dr. Vijay Modi, Dr. Ben Orlove, Dr. Paige WestCollaboratorsDr. Chris Small, Dr. Gillian Galford, Dr. Pinki Mondal, Columbia Water Center (CWC), Amir Jina (and photo credits)
FundingNSF, NASA, CWC, AC4, National Geographic