Forward StudiesRigaSeptember, 2003

EUROPEAN FORESIGHT

TOWARDS

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Presentation by Dr. Arturs Puga

International conference at the Banking Institution of Higher EducationRiga, September 11, 2003

CONDITIONS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT:NEW CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS

CONTENT

1. Foresight as a method and culture for sustainable development

2. Foresight research activities dealing with

• Knowledge Society

• Business Sustainability

Introduction

”Foresight is a key to survival. Managers able to perceive trends and week signals where others only see noise or chaos can capitalize on the changing nature of the market to reposition their firms before new entrants become a serious threat...Today’s corporations can seize the opportunity for sustainable development.”Hart, Stuart and Milstein, Mark. “Global Sustainability and the Creative Destruction of Industries.” Sloan Management Review.

(Fall 1999): 24.

IT AND SUSTAINABILITY:ENABLING THE FUTURE

TNS and Silicon Walley Toxics Coalition, January 2003

PRIORITIES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

• Poverty eradication • Sustainable management and conservation of

natural resources • Making globalisation work for sustainable

development • Improving governance at all levels • Financing for sustainable development • Education, science and technology for decision

making

Culture of the 21st century

Foresight constitutes a systematic attempt to observe the long-term future of science, technology, society, the economy and their mutual interactions in order to generate knowledge with which to effect social, economic and environmental improvements based on well founded projections. However, it is not enough to establish a clear and efficient technology to conduct foresight. It is also vitally important to ensure that foresight outcomes are taken into consideration in policy debates and decision making.

Culture for knowledge society and sustainable development

The role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities. 13–14 May 2002 Seville conference proceedings. European Commission, 2002. p. 1.

http://www.jrc.es/home/publications/publications.html

Culture creating a new community

We can identify the set of ideas, beliefs, and ways of behaviour of a ‘particular foresight community’ (individuals as well as organisations) recognised on the European level alongside an emergence of the European Research Area (ERA) meeting objectives of the Lisbon strategy. Ioannina Conference Manifesto for Foresight Cooperation in an Enlarged European Research and Innovation Area. 15–16 May 2003, Ioannina, Greece. http://medlab.cs.uoi.gr/conf2003/forum_see.asp

Connections and interdependence

• The Lisbon strategy

• The Knowledge-based society

• Sustainable development

• Foresight as a method, process and culture for research, actions and change

1) The Development of Information Societies based on the large-scale diffusion and utilization of new IT, which have allowed for unprecedent capabilities in capturing, procession, storing and communicating data & information.

Other important developments:

GLOBALIZATION

2) The increasing importance of innovation (especially technological but also organizational) as an

element of corporative and national competiveness, and in strategies to increase efficiency and effectiveness of organizations of all types.

CHANGES in

3)The development of Service Economies in which the bulk of economic activity, employment and output is taking place in service sectors of economy, in which service is an important management principle in organizations in all sectorsin organizations in all sectors, and where specilized services (especially Knowledge-Intensive Business Services) are providing critical inputs to organizations in all sectors

DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURES

CULTURAL PRACTISES

4) Knowledge management arises as a specific issue, as organisations seek to apply formal techniques and information systems to help them make more effective use of their data resources (e.g. data mining), information assets (e.g. Enterprise Resource System) and expertise (e.g. human resource development, groupware and collaborative systems).

ENVIRONMENTAL AFFAIRS

European Knowledge Society Foresight- a Handbook of

Methodology

European Knowledge Society Foresight- a Handbook of

Methodology

November 2002

PREST and FFRC

for the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions

LEARNING SPACE

HANDBOOK OF KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY FORESIGHT

http://les.man.ac.uk/PREST/euforia/handbook.htm http://les.man.ac.uk/PREST/euforia

/documents/EFL_Handbook_April_2003.pdf

http://www.wbcsd.ch/DocRoot/LUWbCOQ8l1DFtZv5WB0U/20021118_sdmap

.pdf SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

(a wiring diagram of the global challenges)

Foresight as a Process

Renewal

Pre-Foresight

RecruitmentGeneration

Action

Experts

PanelsIntelligence Gathering

Knowledge FusingVisioning

Targeting

Synthesis

Dissemination

Implementation

Stakeholders

Scoping

Foresight as a Process: methods

Renewal

PreForesight

RecruitmentGeneration

Action

Monitoring

Management

Evaluation

Foresight

Informing and legitimising action,

establishing preparedness

Sharing visions. Exchanging knowledge, mutual understanding...

Identifying indicators and determining goals, evaluation processes

and mechanisms

Foresight’s triple base

Strategic action plansStrategic action plans

Planning tools and techniques, priority setting,

etc.

Futures reports, scenarios, forecasts and visions

Futures reports, scenarios, forecasts and visions

Futures methods,

forecasting techniques, modelling & visionary

approaches, etc.

Broadening participation, establishing and reinforcing

networksNetworking tools and techniques,

groupwork and facilitation, survey approaches, etc.

Fore-

sight FuturesPlan-ning

Network-ing

FROM FUTURE STUDIES TO FORESIGHT:

“The important changes in future studies, such as a shift from emphasis on predictive approaches to more exploratory studies, from one-off studies to more continual iterations of envisioning future challenges and opportunities, from expert-only to users involvement in the process of study—have facilitated an increasing value of foresight activities. In systematic, participatory process foresight practitioners set complementary goals for informing present-day decisions and mobilizing joint actions.”

Practical Guide to Regional Foresight. FOREN project. European Commission, December 2001. http://les.man.ac.uk/PREST/Research/foren.htm

The EUROFORE datebase freely accessible

http://les.man.ac.uk/eurofore/

In the countries of EU hundreds, sometimes thousands of people are involved in foresight exercises, and are drawn from a wide variety of backgrounds.

EUROFORE datebase of mapped foresight exercises, organisations and individuals is useful for learning as well as monitoring.

A SOCIETY TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

LEARNING AND SHAPING processes via

foresight activities

(networking and online)

Starting Foresight

The establishment the Forward Unit could provide a subject to be a possible repository of knowledge and agent for foresight training and advice.

It may organize small-scale foresight exercises or provide training activities for particular sets of users.

The Unit can support network activities, organise meetings of stakeholders, in the long run “to maintain Foresight activities in a given community.”

Forward Studies, LUS, Riga

• studies of LATVIAN SOCIETY (system aspects, issues, trends,challenges, interrelations, options)

• THE KNOWLEDGE-BASED SOCIETIES OF EUROPE

• FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES for SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

CURRENT RESEARCH • SOCIAL CHALLENGES FACING LATVIA:

PROBLEMS OF IDENTIFICATION a part of the BCSS project “Latvia in Europe: Visions for future” 2002-2004

• “LATVIA TOWARDS KNOWLEDGE SOCIETIES OF EUROPE: NEW OPTIONS FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND EMPLOYMENT ACHIEVING THE GOALS OF THE LISBON STRATEGY” the FORWARD STUDIES’ project 2003-2005

CURRENT RESEARCH

• International foresight “THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESSES” EUFORIA, PREST, online, 2003

OUTPUTS

• European citizens are interested in the cooperation achieving objectives of creating the identifiable style for the knowledge-based economy. A time has come to multiply efforts of stakeholders from various countries and the EU’s bodies to work out a research consortium dealing with comparative studies aimed at theory, methods and applied research (including foresight activities) on the knowledge-based society as well as sustainable development in the New Member States.

CONCLUSIONS

FOR THE MEDIUM-TERM FUTURE

• knowledge management

• system thinking

• lifelong learning

• e-learning

• adaptation of Latvian language for the knowledge society

CONCLUSIONS

FOR THE MEDIUM-TERM FUTURE

provide both unexplored and critical challenges facing Latvia, and to set the objectives to meet them adequately is a task embedded in all national system’s aspects for sustainable development.

Building the Information Society in Candidate Countries? A prospective analysis on potential trajectories to realise the Lisbon goals (IPTS, Joint Research Centre DG, European Commission, June 2003).The statement in the prologue:

‘ The Information Society in Candidate Countries has received up till now little or no academic attention. ‘

WHY ???

Due to accelerated social and technological change, a new culture of future-oriented thinking in society is needed.

Decision makers need to acquire new skills in the face of declining role of traditional value systems and the erosion of traditional interest groups combined with calls for more accountability and accelerated technological change.

WHY FORESIGHT ? !

Main objectives of the EU’s FP6 Thematic Priority 7‘Citizens and Governance in a Knowledge based

society’.

• ‘Providing a sound scientific base for the management of the transition towards a European knowledge based society, conditioned by national, regional and local policies and by decision making by individual citizens, families and other societal units.’

* The indicative budget allocated for - 225 million EUR

http://www.cordis.lu/citizens/citizens.htm

http://www.cordis.lu/citizens/home.html

The added value of European foresight actions includes:

• strengthening the strategic dimension of the European Research Area

• contributing to the achievement of the Lisbon Objectives

• contributing structurally to European integration (enlargement)

• contributing to the design of coherent S&T policies in Europe

The added value of European foresight actions includes:

• contributing to the creation and functioning of knowledge-based economies at different governance levels in Europe

• facilitating the integration of science and technology into society

• contributing to the reform of European Governance by information exchange, awareness rising and networking

The added value of European foresight actions includes:

• relating national foresight activities and increasing synergies

• providing methodological expertise

An outline Guide to opportunities offered by the Sixth European Community Research Framework Programme for supporting co-operation in the field of foresight in Europe.

Working document. European Commission, 2002.

Challenge for strategies of sustainable development

 7 steps for managing en enterprise according to

sustainable development (Business strategies, IISD ) http://www.bsdglobal.com/pdf/business_strategy.pdf

 

http://www.cordis.lu/foresight/newsletter.htm

The end of presentation