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Cascading effects in crises: categorisation and analysis of triggers Kim Hagen, Meropi Tzanetakis, Hayley Watson

ISCRAM, Kristiansand, 25 May 2015

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Triggers of cascading effects

• Cascading effects: Situations where a disruption of one element, such as infrastructure, causes a sequence of disruptive events, which can cause deleterious impacts far beyond the initial impacts of the crisis (Little, 2010)

• FORTRESS project - Identify and understand cascading effects, how they unfold, and what their triggers are.

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Case studies of cascading disasters

• Selection:

• Frequency of crises• Cross-border aspect of crises• Presence and severity of cascading effects

• Commonly occurring crises in Europe – EMDAT

• Large non-European crises

• Recent crises

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List of case studies

• 2005 London attacks, UK

• 2000 Enschede fireworks factory explosion, the Netherlands

• 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japan

• 1999 Galtür avalanche disaster, Austria

• 2003 Heatwave, France

• 2014 MH17 plane crash, Ukraine

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Approach and methodology

• Excel sheet

• Triggers of cascading effects

• Time- when did what happen

• Unfolding of events and actions in crisis management

• Unfolding of the crisis itself

• Negative effects

• Sectors directly affected

• Sectors indirectly affected

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Blue arrow- direct causal relationYellow arrow- of influence onGreen line- subsequent steps but not a causal relation

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Blue arrow- direct causal relationYellow arrow- of influence onGreen line- subsequent steps but not a causal relationRed line- connects trigger in green column to the cascade it caused

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Approach and methodology

Uniform approach for categorising the triggers of cascading effects

• Disruption of

• Information relation

• Organisation relation

• Supply relation

• Malfunctioning of legal and regulatory relation

• Disturbance relation

• Pre-disaster conditions

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Analysis

What are common triggers of cascading effects and what are the implications for emergency management?

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Analysis

1. Disruption of

• Information relation

• Organisation relation

• Supply relation

2. Malfunctioning of legal and regulatory relation

3. Disturbance relation

4. Pre-disaster conditions

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Analysis

1. Disruption of relations

Disruption of information relations: 11 times

• Congestion of telecommunication networks

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Enschede fireworks factory explosion

-Increase in call traffic placed constraints on communication between emergency managers and first responders.

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Analysis

1. Disruption of relations

Disruption of information relations: 11 times

• Congestion of telecommunication networks

►Importance of having separate reliable communication systems

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Analysis

1. Disruption of relations

Disruption of organisational relations: 10 times

• Decisions proved to be incorrect

• Decisions based on incorrect information

• Organisational responsibilities were not agreed upon

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Heatwave- France

-No heatwave response plan was in place-Classification as an ‘emergency situation’ was delayed- it did not fit in the existing format-Poorly coordinated and inadequate response to the event

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Analysis

1. Disruption of relations

Disruption of organisational relations: 10 times

• Decisions based on incorrect information

• Decisions proved to be wrong

• Organisational responsibilities were not agreed upon

►Triangulation of knowledge provided by those who have a stake in the situation

►Importance of systematic organisation of both resources and people, between and within organisations, pre- and during disaster

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Analysis

1. Disruption of relations

Disruption of supply relations: 7 times

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Galtür avalanche

-Roads were inaccessible- no transport via roads-Not enough helicopters to bring emergency personnel and evacuate people

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Analysis

1. Disruption of relations

Disruption of supply relations: 7 times

• Supply of water

►Importance of access to resources

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Take home lessons

►Triggers of cascading effects can originate prior or during crisis

►Effective regulations can limit cascading effects

►Pre-crisis mitigation and preparation measures can limit the occurrence of triggers of cascading effects during crises

►Systems and human resources cannot be considered in isolation from each other

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THANK YOU

If you have any further questions or would like to be kept up-to-date with the

project’s findings and events please contact:

kim.hagen@trilateralresearch.com meropi.tzanetakis@vicesse.eu

FORTRESS has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 607579.

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Questions for discussion

Paper: PPDR Information Systems – A Current Status Review Report

by Dimitrios Kavallieros, George Leventakis, Stefanos Malliaros, Ioannis Daniilidis, Vasileios Grizis (KEMEA)

1. What are limitations of Information Systems being currently in place?

2. Which were the selection criteria for the reported Information Systems in the field of crisis management?

questions