Presentation ISCRAM 2012

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> WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM

Towards realtime Twitter analysis ISCRAM 2012

23 april 2012

Arnout de Vries (TNO), Teun Terpstra (HKV), Geerte Paradies (TNO), Richard Stronkman (Twitcident)

Social sensors and citizen journalism

1 minute ago

Analysis (Pukkelpop) and research method (Twitcident)

5 minutes ago

Results: early warning, facts and feelings, resilience

10 minutes ago

20 minutes ago

Goal: “Monitor and analyze Twitter during incidents in

real-time to improve crisis management”

15 minutes ago

Discussion and future work

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10 januari 2011 M Bouman

TNO Nieuwe huisstijl

3

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Social media & emergency management

4

Red river floods

6

Pukkelpop

Storm incident 2011 August 18th 2011, 6.15 PM

7

Finding and filtering: keywords, syntactical, context and semantic features. More info:

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Pukkelpop Twitter visual analysis

Tweets /min

156.157 tweets total in 2 days

8

576 tweets/min

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Tweets /min Selection of 96.957 tweets between noon and midnight

9

12 AM 12 PM

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Geographical spread of Tweets

Total spread afterwards:

10

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Pukkelpop Twitter: filter messages

Messages about

(rumours on)

casualties and deaths

1. Early warning

2. Damage and casualties

3. ‘Community resilience’

‘Dangerous weather’

messages as early

indicators

People offering help in

various ways (e.g.

twitterlists)

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Early warnings?

WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM 12

Words used 25 minutes before impact

1. Weather: storm, thunder, cloud bursts, hail, ….

2. Locations: Brussel, Gent, Hasselt, …

3. Severity: intense, enormous, drama, ‘hell’, !…

Impact

storm Indication?

“ ”

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Pukkelpop Twitter: early warning

1. Early warning

I pity those on #pukkelpop ! It was pitch dark

here for over 15 minutes! And hail storm,

lightning, thunder, …OMG!

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Damage: photo’s from eye witnesses

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Pukkelpop Twitter: damage & casualties

2. Damage and casualties

SMS from the Standard: according to fireman of

Sint-Truiden 6 deaths on #pp11 because of storm

#shitman

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• Retweets expressing doubts

• Some messages reach 10k

users in 3 minutes

• Hyperlinks (news or photo

websites) high propagation

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Pukkelpop Twitter: community resilience

3. ‘Community resilience’

#Hasselthelpt 2 beds, shower and breakfast,

ask @Daffybal - pick up at church possible, we

live behind the festival grounds

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• #Hasselthelpt, #Genthelpt, #Brusselhelpt, …

• Creation of Twitterlists (e.g. PatriceF)

• Sharing of phone numbers

• Creation of Twitter accounts

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Festival goers were taken by surprise, so it seems. But (weak) signals were there.

Retweets accounted for large amounts of tweets on damage and casualties and only occurred when pictures (in case of damage) or links to official news sites (i case of casualties) were available. This suggests social norms on twitter prevent propagation of unverified information about delicate topics.

Solidarity is important in coping with disasters (Starbird et al). Within 2 hours the #hasselthelpt initiative was followed massively. This suggests social media can facilitate community resilience that originate from nearby people.

Twitter monitoring could enable crisis managers to confirm or refute rumors and take emotional responses into account in crisis communications.

Discussion


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Early detection and early warning:

Examples: Queensday, (death) threats and weather conditions

Filters for damage and casualties need to be verified for other

incidents. New topic filters such as resilience need more research.

Retweets and source credibility are indeed related. Images and

links, besides the author, play an important role in assessing

credibility.

Indicators for assessing real-time credibility seem possible

and are valuable for crisis response teams.

Future research


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Visual analysis provide a good start to identify abnormalities

Filtering on damage could have provided pictorial 'evidence'

# of retweets attract attention and point toward a hot topic from a

'trusted' source, and news about damage or casualties mostly have

high propagation

Not just about technology: organizational solutions needed for

embedding social media usage in crisis communications, such as

more experience, knowledge and policies.

Implications for crisis management


Questions? #daretoask

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Thank you!


Demonstration:

TUESDAY afternoon

4:00 PM – 5:00 PM

at Concourse level

http://twitcident.com/

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TIMELINE


August 19th August 18th 2011

Indications of

heaviness of

storm

heading to

Pukkelpop

from citizens

Start incident:

heavy rainfall

16:2

2

18:1

5

Reports

about

deaths

19:0

3

Reports

about

damage

and

casualties

18:3

0

First relevant

pictures showing

damage (collapse

of tent)

18:3

5

First pictures

showing panic

Dutch press

starts

reporting

18:2

4

19:1

9

Belgian press

started reporting

(individual

accounts)

19:1

2

Large amounts of

rumour spread about

#deaths

19:1

5

Deaths semi-

confirmed by

individual

journalist

19:3

8

20:1

9

Initiation of

#Hasselthelpt

@Pukkelpop

first message

since incident

19:5

3

@Pukkelpop

message with

“

handelingsper

spectief”

(phone

number and

URL)

21:5

6

Press

conference

(TV): 2 deaths

and 40 injured

20:5

0

Announcement

that festival is

cancelled for the

night

19:4

0

Fire depts Sint

Truiden say 6

deaths and

Hasselt says 1

death 7 injured

20:0

6

GSM network

is fixed

“SMS use

only” is asked

for ~ 2

1:0

0

Official news:

5 deaths, tens

injured,

festival

cancelled

19th

aug12:0

0 A

M

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Pukkelpop Twitter: damage & casualties

Tweets/min on ‘Damage’ topic Tweets/min on 'Casualty' topic

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News media

rumors

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Tweets /min Of which 94.109 were created from the start of the disaster (6:15 PM)

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Flood control 2015 programme:

Stimulates the development of (IT) innovations in order to promote smarter protection against floods and other water related hazards.

Social media and crisis management project

Gathering information from technical sensors

e.g. weather, dikes, waterlevels

-> But also from the HUMAN sensor

which information could humans provide?

Flood control 2015


Presentation ISCRAM 2012

Technology

Transcript of Presentation ISCRAM 2012