FORESIGHT MODELING - gcard3.agric.za · FORESIGHT MODELING TO INFORM DECISION MAKING FOR...
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FORESIGHT MODELINGTO INFORM DECISION MAKING FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AND FOOD SECURITYKeith Wiebe, International Food Policy Research Institute
Johannesburg, 6 April 2016
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Long-term challenges arising from changes in…
• Population
• Income
• Urbanization
• Diets
• Resources
• Climate
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The role of foresight Stakeholder
engagement
ScenariosWhat if…?
Decisions
Challenges & questions
Analysis& resultsData & models
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Global Futures & Strategic Foresight
1. Improved tools
2. Stronger community of practice
3. Exploring alternative futures
4. Informing decisions
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1. Improved modeling tools
• Climate models
• Water models
• Crop models
• IMPACT economic model
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2. Stronger community of practice
• All 15 CGIAR centers now participate in GFSF– AfricaRice, Bioversity, CIAT, CIFOR,
CIMMYT, CIP, ICARDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT, IFPRI, IITA, ILRI, IRRI, IWMI, WorldFish
• Collaboration with other global economic modeling groups through AgMIP– PIK, GTAP, Wageningen, IIASA, UFL,
FAO, OECD, EC/JRC, USDA/ERS, …
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• Role of agricultural technologies
• Regional studies
• Analyses by CGIAR centers
• AgMIP global economic assessments
• Private sector
Rainfed Maize (Africa)
Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia)
Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia)
Rainfed Potato (Asia)
Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India)
Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia)
Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia)
3. Exploring alternative futures
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Changes in temperature and precipitationin 2050 compared to 2000 (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)
Maximum temperature (°C)
Annual precipitation (mm)
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Climate change and rainfed maize yieldsin 2050, before economic responses (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)
Source: IFPRI DSSAT simulations
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Climate change impacts on cereal yieldsin 2050, by region (SSP2)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
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Population at risk of hunger (SSP2, RCP8.5)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
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Exploring the impacts of improved technologies and practices on…
-40.0
-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
Malnourished Children Pop. at-risk-of-hunger
No till Drought tolerance Heat tolerance
Nitrogen use efficiency Integrated soil fertility mgt Precision agriculture
Water harvesting Sprinkler irrigation Drip irrigation
Crop Protection - insects
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)
Food Security(Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)
Source: Islam et al. (draft)
Crop yields(Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)
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4. Informing decisions
• CGIAR
• National partners
• Regional organizations
• International organizations and donors
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Concluding thoughts
• Not one future but many possible futures
• Which of the many is realized depends on our choices
• Understanding those choices requires many tools and approaches
• We look forward to engaging with other GCARD partners
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