Foresight in the GCARD 2012 process

Mark HoldernessGFAR Secretariat

Challenges in planning & investing in AR4D for future smallholder impacts

• Agriculture is highly context-specific, yet there are also common global challenges, so we must think at multiple levels

• Outcome-based planning requires that all enabling factors are taken care of and failure-causes anticipated and addressed along pathways to impact.

• Desired outcomes (impact) should shape required current research and investment and have to be balanced by policy makers weighting positive and negative impacts on different sectors

• Uncertainty about decision and impact can be reduced through future studies, such as foresight and projections, whose role is to inform, not prescribe policies and practices

• Projections are based on certain assumptions and perspectives, which may not be shared by others, in particular by the communities concerned

Some key features of foresight and projections

Foresight ProjectionMostly qualitative QuantitativeScenario-based Simulation-based

Anticipate and explore Calculate and predict Deals with trends and ruptures Deals with trends and alternativesMulti-dimensional variables Economic, technical and bio-

physical

“what if?” simulation uses selected variables (e.g. IFPRI 3 population/income scenarios x 4 climate change scenarios) to help draw attention to critical situations and inform strategic decisions based on assessment of risks and returns, within the parameters used

hypothetical sequences of events constructed to focus attention on possible contrasting evolutions and decision–points that can shape trends towards one or another. They help manage uncertainties in social, political, institutional dimensions and challenge the presumptions held by different actors

Limitations of Future Studies

Projections Use reduced set of variables and loose proxies for real facts Only as good as available quantitative data and its quality and coverage linear/deterministic approach (what-if) contradictory/different findings/divergences Influenced by external events

Foresight scenarios Still a limited set of variables Contains inherent subjectivity that requires balancing influenced by external events usually lack quantitative development to predict returns

1. assessments and projectionsa. Assessments World Development Reports, WBIAASTD, WB/UNSCAR 2nd Foresight Exercise, EURuralstruc WB/CIRADGCARD 2010 Regional priorities

2. foresighta. Anticipatory scenario building:Socioeconomic scenarios, IPCCSCAR 1 2007,EUMediterra 2008, CIHEAMAgrimonde, INRA, CIRADMillenium Ecosystem AssesmentSouthern Africa Agriculture, IISDEnergy scenarios 2050, ShellThe Future of the Global Financial System, WEF

b. Projections/forecasts Outlook to 2030/2050, FAOFood Security , Farming and CC, IFPRI Threshold 21 , Millennium Institute.Global Future of Food and Farming, UK

c. A vision of the futureGreen Growth Strategy, OECDGreening Economy with Agriculture, FAO Agrimonde 1CAWMA, IWMIAPEC 2050 Low-carbon SocietyRural Ireland 2025

Reconciling two families of “future studies”

Choosing the preferred scenario

Highlighting the likely scenario

Why more coordinated forward thinking?

Not for predicting what the world will be in 2030 or 2050 or 2080...For deciding in what kind of world we would like to see in 2030 or 2050 or 2080... The research we choose to begin now must address tomorrow’s needs and impact is

not instant

Two underlying postulates•The nature of the process in co-producing knowledge among stakeholders is a stronger determinant of influence than the final outputs•Impact here is the ability to change mindsets, it is a long process

A concept of coordinationAn open and inclusive mechanism seeking complementarities so that all stakeholders involved in the future of the rural world can have their say in shaping preferred futures

ApplicationForward thinking for agricultural research to meet the future needs of the rural world: The Global Foresight Hub

The Global Foresight Hub

A permanent opportunity to develop collective thinking supported by commitment of its members

An annual inclusive venue (Foresight Exchange Workshop) for sharing results, comparing methods, and discussing controversies arising from field experiences

Facilitate dialogue between scientists, policy makers and civil society Give room to the voices of society, especially small farmers, to be incorporated in

shaping research orientations

Region by region, starting with Sub-Saharan Africa, Develop the skills and capabilities of young professionals to shape their own futures

Forward Thinking Platform

Foresight Academy

Policy Dialogue Platforms

Key issues calling for coordination

We are faced with: different questions in a complex agriculture; different stakeholders and different regions; different institutional perspectives and different tools & methods

3 key themes were thus prioritized in the Beijing meeting of the Forward-Thinking Platform of the Global Foresight Hub: • What is the future for smallholder farming? (e.g. What are the farming

patterns of the future? Who will be making a living from agriculture? Who will be living in rural areas?)

• How will we use our land in the future? (e.g. Who owns the land? Who decides on how the land is used? How to value food vs fuel, or staples vs commodities? Impacts of urbanization?)

• How will consumption shape future production? (e.g. implications of protein demands, wastage, food safety. How can we achieve both national food security and household nutrition?) The outcome is always the result of the process; it depends on who decides on the

question, on the relevant variables, on the methodology, on the desired futures...

Aims of Forward-thinking sessions at GCARD2

• The aim is not to produce one universally applicable answer, but to build better understanding of the implications of different agricultural choices

The session should:• Define clear actions to improve our forward-thinking and its impact in research/ implementation

prioritization and informing policies• Run over three half-days, with specific sub-themes intended to trigger more collective and

coherent actions in a step-wise process.• Focus on impact through both content (what can forward-thinking studies tell us about agriculture

in the future?) and process (how can we achieve more effective analyses of our future needs and trigger required research now?).

• Bringing together and finding common ground among diverse analyses and perspectives on future needs, recognizing the assumptions being made in each and how these influence research prioritization.

• Set out what is required to develop a more coherent and integrated use of diverse forward looking, anticipatory approaches, so that investments made now are based on more robust viewpoints and better targeted to the particular needs of resource-poor smallholders.

The writeshops• A worldwide inventory has been conducted of forward-looking, anticipatory work

over recent years, in national regional and global studies, including the work of the CGIAR

• This yielded more than 50 relevant and documented “cases” directly related to agriculture and rural development.

• Case-based evidence will be brought together by the authors concerned, into a common format and coverage.

• The writing workshops are designed to provide the appropriate environment for this purpose and considering issues specific to each region.

• Cases will combine the content and the process and assumptions used for these studies, so that lessons can be learned from each case and from cross-analyses.

• These cases will provide the substance and information required to inform the GCARD2 foresight session on the current state of foresight, its content and process.

• They should help enable learning on how foresighting can be made more effective and how resultant research take best account of future societal needs.

Each case study will explore:

• Content: gathering and analyzing information on topics, visions, emerging challenges and methods, focusing on the following question:What role could smallholder farmers play in meeting the future needs in food and nutrition security, poverty alleviation and sustainable management of natural resources? This question calls for particular attention to three key thematic issues identified by foresight practitioners in the Beijing workshop: • What is the future for smallholder farming?• How will we use our land in the future? • How will consumption shape production?

This will feed sessions 1 and 2a and b. • Process: why and how have these studies developed and what assumptions have been made in these

processes in coming to their views? What can be inferred from this in terms of the partnerships and capacities required for their impact? This will feed sessions 3a and b.

• Impact: the outline will seek to provide information and an analytical background on how these studies have affected prioritization of research, policy decisions and ultimately, farmers livelihoods. This will feed session 1.

Regional considerations

• Sessions provide opportunity for regional needs identified through GCARD 2010 consultations and now in some cases being updated (e.g. S. Asia, Latin America), to be brought together with the perspectives of the identified case studies.

• Engagement of the Regional Fora in the write workshops, will enable existing regional reports produced for GCARD 1 to be re-visited and synthesized into “benchmark” cases stimulating collective reflections on future needs.

• This will aid identification of new challenges, revisiting of priorities and needs, adjusting actions and show where further anticipatory studies may be required

Wider stakeholder e-consultations

Regional e-consultations should follow on the write-shop products, prior to the GCARD 2 :

• Constituency perspectives on the conclusions being drawn from the diverse analyses,

• Implications of the state of foresight for their own actions and

• What they are themselves prepared to do to improve foresighting processes to better meet their needs.

The CGIAR SRF

• More effective foresighting is seen as the key need for improving the Strategy & Results Framework for investments being made in the CGIAR Consortium.

• The assumptions in the CRPs and the SRF will be articulated into the GCARD 2012 foresight process, enabling public debate and bringing in the perspectives of their intended beneficiaires and end-users to directly shape and strengthen the action plan for implementing the SRF .

Action 1. Stock-taking about who has engaged in thinking forward (next 10 to 20 years) using the question of the future of farming systems as a case and 2) identify what ideas, scenarios, challenges, long term visions have resulted of their work

Action 1. Stock-taking about who has engaged in thinking forward (next 10 to 20 years) using the question of the future of farming systems as a case and 2) identify what ideas, scenarios, challenges, long term visions have resulted of their work

Action 3. Preparation of background documents on progresses and results on 1) and 2)

Action 4. Joint preparation of a progress report and results on 1) and 2)

Action 5. GCARD consultation progress report and implications: actions on

priorities, partnership and capacity building

Action 6. GCARD 2 Foresight Session Plenary progress report by contributors

Working group on priorities, partnership and capacity building

Action 6. GCARD 2 Foresight Session Plenary progress report by contributors

Working group on priorities, partnership and capacity building

Action 7. GCARD agenda of action for ‘improved’ foresight1 Nov 2012

May 2012

April 2012

Nov 2011-Feb 2012

June-Aug. 2012

27-28 oct2012

29 oct2012

All stakeholders though Internet with support of

Fora, CGIAR

All stakeholders though Internet with support of

Fora, CGIAR

Throuh Fora, Farmer Org, NGO and CSO, CGIAR

Through Fora, Farmer Org, NGO and CSO, CGIAR

Through Fora, Farmer Org, NGO and CSO, CGIAR

Key participants from Fora, Farmer Org, NGO and CSO,

ARIs and IOs, CGIAR

All GCARD participants + Special Foresight InviteesAll GCARD participants + Special Foresight Invitees

When? What and how? Who?

GCARD participantsResearch priorities Partnership Capacity building

Mapping diversity

Exploring diversity

Highlighting diversity

Reporting diversity

GCARD 2: Turning diversity

into actions

Action 2. identify visions and key challenges and how organizations have responded to those priorities

Consortium and CRP partners to review and document their own forward-thinking analyses and the perspectives, projections and scenarios established with regard to future farming patterns as a case in the CRP context and identify ideas, visions and key challenges and how programmes and partners have responded to those priorities

This is were we are and what the writeshops will do

Thank You