Foresight for Science & Technology Governance In the United … · 2017-01-18 · Foresight for...
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Page 1 Foresight for Science & Technology Governance In the United States Timothy M. Persons, Ph.D. Chief Scientist U.S. Government Accountability Office www.gao.gov NISTEP International Conference 2011 The 4 th Annual Conference on Foresight March 8, 2011 Tokyo, Japan Disclaimer: These remarks do not necessarily reflect the views of the US GAO.
Transcript of Foresight for Science & Technology Governance In the United … · 2017-01-18 · Foresight for...
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Foresight for Science & Technology Governance
In the United States
Timothy M. Persons, Ph.D.Chief Scientist
U.S. Government Accountability Officewww.gao.gov
NISTEP International Conference 2011The 4th
Annual Conference on Foresight
March 8, 2011Tokyo, Japan
Disclaimer: These remarks do not necessarily reflect the views of the US GAO.
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U.S. Federal Government
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GAO’s Strategic Planning Framework
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GAO Strategic Plan: Key Trends
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Threats confronting U.S. national security interests
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Fiscal sustainability and debt challenges
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Economic recovery and restored growth
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Changing dynamics of global interdependence
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Advances in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics
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Increasing impact of networks
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Shifting roles in government and governance
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Demographic and societal changes confronting young and old
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GAO’s Study Portfolio: Approaches to S&T Governance
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Oversight:
Government entities are doing what they are
supposed to do. . .funds are being spent for the intended purpose. . .applicable laws and regulations are being complied with.
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Insight:
What S&T programs and policies work. . .sharing of
various best practices and benchmarking information. . . looking horizontally across the silos of government and vertically between the levels of government.
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Foresight:
Recognizes long-term implications of today’s
decisions. . .identifies key S&T trends, opportunities, and emerging challenges before they reach crisis propor-
tions. . .informs government’s future role and responsibilities.
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GAO’s 21st Century Challenges Report
Articulates Importance of Foresight for Governance
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“In response to forces shaping the United States and its place in the world. . .
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. . .the governance structures and management processes that emerge will depend on having sufficient foresight. . .”
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High Clockspeed
Technologies Challenge Government Agencies
*Organizational Clockspeed
(Estimated Ranges)
*Adapted from D. Rejeski, "S&T Challenges in the 21st Century:
Strategy and Tempo," ch. 5 in AAAS Science and Technology Policy Yearbook, 2003.
The clockspeed
concept and assessment of industry clockspeeds
shown above are based on C. Fine’s Clockspeed: Winning Temporary Control in the Age of Industry Advantage, 1998. Clockspeed
is defined as the rate at which organizations “change processes
and products, reinvent mindsets, and modify organizational structures in response to external threats or opportunities.”
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Foresight for Governance: Early Warning to Avoid Crisis
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Evolution of Foresight for Governance at GAO: Background
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While the future is uncertain, GAO as an audit organization requires a grounded, non-partisan, fact-based approach—
and reliable reports
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GAO work often has a futures component, ranging from examination of long-term fiscal crisis to challenges related to climate change
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Evolution of S&T Foresight for Governance at GAO: Recent Focus
Frameworks for Oversight Explicit attention to foresight in examining near-
or mid-term
trends that affect governance/agency missions. Examples: GAO work on highway safety and nanotechnology
Technology Assessments Current integration of foresight with GAO technology assessments to inform Congress. Example: GAO work on technical status, public perceptions and foresight considerations around climate engineering
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GAO Framework to Evaluate How Federal Agencies Exercise S&T Foresight
Source: GAO.
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Technology Assessment of Climate Engineering Research
Source: GAO.
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Combining S&T Foresight With Other Methods: Climate Engineering Research
Multi-disciplinary approach to technology assessment:
Technology Evaluation
(physical scientists, engineers, economists)Used measures such as technology readiness level
Assessment of Public Perceptions
(survey methodologists, social scientists)Conducted focus groups; surveyed 1006 individuals through online research panel
Scenario Development
(social scientists, foresight methodologists, economists)Use of scenario axis approach to create 4 scenariosvarying the level of federal involvement and degree of carbon constraints
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Use of Future Scenarios: Climate Engineering Research
SIMPLA (Scenario-Initiated Multi-Phase Look Ahead):
Phase I:
Convened 6 scenario-builders to develop 4 scenarios that look ahead 20 years for the future of climate engineering research (2010-2030)
Phase II:
Elicited e-mail comments on scenarios/the future by larger number of experts representing multiple perspectives; followup
with multiple experts to further determine views
Phase III:
Interactive meeting with third group of experts who reviewed initial synthesis of first 2 exercises
Used scenarios in qualitative foresight synthesis
to identify prominent opportunities and threats, alternative views and options
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Potential Uses of Foresight Information in the Congressional Process
Agenda settingStudies by GAO or other independent and qualified organizations
Educating and communicatingCongressional hearings or other forums
Prioritizing and aggregatingLeadership prioritization initiatives • Annual congressional budget resolution/oversight agenda
Developing policy proposalsTemporary special commissions • Reauthorization process
SOURCE: Based on 21st
Century Challenges: Reexamining the Base of the Federal Government
(GAO-05-325SP)
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Specific Ways to Enhance Congressional Foresight for Governance
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Improve early warning of issues, problems and opportunities that
might become the subject of legislation
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Prepare forecasts of primary or intended impacts of legislation
as well as secondary or side impacts
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Encourage coordination of future-oriented policies across committees
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Support oversight activities of Congress and committees
SOURCE: C. Bezold, Anticipatory Democracy
(1978)
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Examples of Foresight for Governance: Executive Branch
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National Intelligence CouncilGlobal Trends 2025: A Transformed World
includes identification of technology role in energy transition; focus on US policymakers
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U.S. Coast GuardEvergreen process addresses global trends to explore Coast Guard’s future
operating environment; provides input to strategy development
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Federal Emergency Management Agency Strategic foresight effort includes scan of technology trends for future of emergency
management; focus on needs of multiple stakeholders
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U.S. Navy Arctic and Climate Change Roadmaps; conduct studies and assessments to inform
future budget requests
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Department of Energy Building Technology roadmaps focus on market and technology barriers, strategies and
next steps for the industry
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Example of Foresight for Governance: U.S. Navy
Source: U.S. Navy Task Force Climate Change
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GAO Science and Technology Foresight and Technology Assessment ReportsHIGHWAY SAFETY:
Foresight Issues Challenge DOT’s Efforts to Assess and Respond
to New Technology-
Based Trends, GAO-09-56, October 3, 2008
NANOTECHNOLOGY:
Nanomaterials
Are Widely Used in Commerce, but EPA Faces Challenges in Regulating Risk, GAO-10-549, May 25, 2010
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT:
Using Biometrics for Border Security, GAO-03-174, November 15, 2002
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT:
Cybersecurity
for Critical Infrastructure Protection, GAO-04-321, May 28, 2004
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT:
Protecting Structures and Improving Communications during Wildland
Fires, GAO-05-380, April 26, 2005
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT:
Securing the Transport of Cargo Containers, GAO-06-68SU, January 14, 2006 [Classification: For Official Use Only]
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT:
Explosives Detection Technologies to Protect Passenger Rail, GAO-10-898, July 28, 2010
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT:
Climate Engineering—Technical Status, Current Perspectives, and Future Prospects [NEW] Expected issuance in spring 2011
