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Transcript of Foresight and Policy Development: the EU experiencegetAttachment... · 11 Foresight and Policy...
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Foresight and Policy Development: the EU experience
Fabiana SCAPOLOTeam leader Foresight and Horizon Scanning
Science advice to Policy Unit (A01)
Joint Research Centre (JRC)Serving society, stimulating innovation, supporting legislation
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• Possible ways to support policy to prepare for the future challenges
• Impact assessment• Strategic planning
• Technology assessment
• Technology Forecasting• Modelling• SWOT analysis• Technology roadmapping• Critical (or Key)
Technology Studies• Futures studies
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• (Technology) Forecasting
• Aims at predicting developments on the basis of the extrapolation of perceptible trends. Alternative futures maybe processed in order to define the most likely future.
• Forecasting as extrapolation of historical data is limited by the availability and quality of the data and by the constraints in the use of forecasting models.
• Less suitable for addressing issues with little or no historical data.
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• Strategic planning
• Is a systematic process through which an organisation agrees on -and builds commitment among key stakeholders to - priorities that are essential to its mission and are responsive to the environment. Strategic planning guides the acquisition and allocation of resources to achieve these priorities (Allison and Kaye, 2005).
• works effectively in many contexts, especially when the focus is on shorter-term topics
• does not per se involve stakeholders or diverging opinions
Typical methods: SWOT analysis, scenarios, technology roadmapsis by definition a normative approach
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Comparison of approaches
Alternative futures? Stakeholders engagement? Supporting action?
Impact assessment
The likely future impacts of a policy initiativeLimited exploration of alternatives to the initiative
Exclusive expert analysis and stakeholder consultation only to complement the analysis
Justifies/calls for amendments in a projected inititiaveNo focus on mobilizing for the implementation
Technology assessment
Future impacts of a specific technologyNo exploration of alternatives
Inclusive stakeholder participation Enhance understanding and identify recommendationsOften precautionary
Forecasting The likely future developmentDisruptive and radical changes may be missed
Exclusive expert work Provides ‘objective’ informationNo action recommendations
Strategic planning
The path to the desired future Lack of alternative perspectives
Mainly exclusive expert work low commitment of stakeholders
Action plan to obtain the objectives
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Forecasting, Planning, and Foresight
• Foresight can use forecasts, as well as contribute to planning, but it should not be confused with either activity.
• Forecasting tends to assume that there is one probable future, whereas Foresight assumes that there are numerous possible futures, and that the future is in fact there to be created through the actions we choose to take today.
• As for Planning, Foresight time horizons should be beyond the usual planning period. Time horizons will vary depending upon the issue or sector under consideration and the needs of the target audience. Time horizons typically vary between 5-30 years, but they may be even longer in some instances
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FORESIGHT – What is it?
• Foresight is a systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building processaimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions
• Does not predict the future;
• Complements desk research analyses with a structured dialogue on the future
among key stakeholders;
• Enhances future thinking by gathering anticipatory intelligence from a wide range of
knowledge sources in a systematic way and links it to today’s decision making;
• Structures the analyses to ensure the emergence of collective intelligence derived
beyond established pathways.
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Participatory, inclusive
Joint systemic understanding of the current situation and how it can evolve in the future
Alternative futures, medium to long term
Systematic and creative process to enable participants to jointly see what is possible, probable and preferred
Action-oriented, shaping the future today
Vision building process aiming at present day decisions and to mobilise joint actions
Analysing the futureForesight characteristics
"Thinking the Future", "Debating the Future" and "Shaping the Future".
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• Engaging stakeholders
• What is ‘participatory’?
Future-oriented activities can be considered participatory if:
• they involve participants from at least two different stakeholder groups (e.g. researchers and business people; experts and policy-makers; experts and laymen);
• they disseminate their preliminary results (e.g. analyses, tentative conclusions and policy proposals) among interested 'non-participants', e.g. face-to-face at workshops, over the internet with free access for everyone, or in the form of printed documents, leaflets, newsletters;
• they seek feedback from this wider circle (again, either face-to-face or in written form).
• Conversely, activities that do not meet any of these criteria cannot be regarded as participatory.
• [Based on a definition by Attila Havas]
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• Engaging stakeholders• The demand for a participatory approach:
• acknowledges that different people have different views on the same topic, and on what they perceive as the important topics
• reflects the desire for greater democratisation and legitimacy in political processes
• builds on the increasing awareness that no single body (especially not a government agency!) can know everything that needs to be known in order to effect the desired changes. Knowledge is distributed widely, and decision-makers have to live with this, and develop their intelligence-gathering methods accordingly.
• [Based on a definition by Attila Havas, on Amara, 1981 and Miles et al, 2002]
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What does foresight look at?
Diagnosis Prognosis Prescription
Understanding where we are…
Exploringwhat could happen…
Debating what we would like to happen …
Deciding what should be done …
Structured stakeholder dialogue
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Basic types of dialogue in a foresight exercise
Each type of dialogue calls for:specific objectives (guiding questions)specific participants in the dialogue (type and level of participation)specific methods structuring the debate
Need to tailor approach to objectives and intended impacts in each phase
DiagnosisUnderstanding where we are…
PrognosisForesighting
what could happen…
PrescriptionDebating what we would
like to happen
Deciding what should be done …
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Evaluation
Agenda-setting Policy definition
Learning
Implementation
• Traditional policy cycle
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Foresight feeding into policy design and implementation
Evaluation
Agenda-setting
FORESIGHT
Policy definition
Learning
Implementation
Understanding of changes
Responsiveness of the systemNew ideas
Legitimacy, transparency
Visions Policy options
New policy configurations
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• Foresight building blocks
Where are we now?
How do we get there? Where do we want to go?
How things may develop?
How can we prepare?
policy makerscompany managers
citizens researchers
NGOs unionsassociations consumers
panels surveysscenarios roadmaps
stakeholdersstakeholders
analysing, debating &
shaping the future
analysing, debating &
shaping the future
in a structured wayin a structured way
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When is foresight applied for policy support?
Typical examples
Challenges faced by territories (regions, countries, cities, etc.): decline of key industrial sector, relocation, accession to EU, coastal flooding
Decisions that need to be backed up by stakeholders to be successful: priority setting for research, innovation, regional development
Decisions with deep or long-term impact: infrastructure, transport, healthcare reorganisation
Need to prepare for emerging phenomena with disruptive potential & high uncertainty: climate change, knowledge society, globalisation, demographic change, immigration, nanotechnology, hydrogen society
Need for enhancement of innovation capability
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Foresight rationales and benefits
Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future
Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future
InsightsAbout the future
InsightsAbout the future
RelationsWith respect to future
RelationsWith respect to future
AttitudesTowards the future
AttitudesTowards the future
produces changes
• Networks• Linkages• Common ground• Shared perspectives• Joint visions
• Networks• Linkages• Common ground• Shared perspectives• Joint visions
• Long term thinking• Awareness of challenges• Foresight & learning culture
• Long term thinking• Awareness of challenges• Foresight & learning culture
• Dynamics of change• New perspectives• Future risks & opportunities• Strategic options• System capabilities• Stakeholders views
• Dynamics of change• New perspectives• Future risks & opportunities• Strategic options• System capabilities• Stakeholders views
Being better prepared for the futureBeing better prepared for the future
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Foresight functions for policy making
1. Informing policy – generating insights regarding the dynamics of change, future challenges and options, along with new ideas, and transmitting them to policy-makers as an input to policy conceptualisation and design
2. Facilitating policy implementation – enhancing the capacity for change within a given policy field by building a common awareness of the current situation and future challenges, as well as new networks and visions amongst stakeholders
3. Embedding participation in policy making – facilitating the participation of civil society in the policy making process, thereby improving its transparency and legitimacy
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Foresight functions for policy making
4. Supporting policy definition – jointly translating outcomes from the collective process into specific options for policy design and implementation
5. Reconfiguring the policy system – new configurations of or linkages between policy making bodies in a way that the system becomes apt to address long-term challenges
6. Symbolic function – indicating to the public that policy is based on rational information
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Outcomes of Foresight exercise
• Outputs refer to the products and services, tangibles and intangibles.
• Results in turn refer to advantage (or disadvantage) that the beneficiaries obtain soon after the end of their participation; and
• Impacts refer to consequences affecting beneficiaries during and after the project.
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History of Foresight within the Commission
• Foresight is not new in the European Commission
• Some of the actors are (and have been)
• Forward Studies Unit (now BEPA) • End 1980s beginning 1990s
• JRC-IPTS (Institute for Prospective technological Studies)• From mid 1990s – ongoing
• Technology watch; Foresight studies; contribution to the advancement of the Foresight knowledge-base (e.g. Foresight mapping, pilot Foresight Academy, foresight as a tool for policy development at different levels European, National, Regional, International)
• DG Research and Innovation • “Strengthening the foundations of the European Research Area” financed projects
through FPs aiming at advancing the knowledge based of Foresight
• Strategic research agendas in ETP, JPI, EIP
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CONTEXT OF JRC ACTIVITIES ON FORESIGHT
• In reply to Europe 2020 strategy and as foreseen by the JRC 2010-2020 Strategy the JRC is developing a capacity to develop forward-looking studies (horizon-scanning and Foresight) to be more at the forefront of the policy cycle.
• This capacity is placed in Brussels in the Science Advice to Policy Unit.
• Mission: To deepen the integration of JRC scientific advice intopolicy making in the EU.
Identifying and communicating areas where new scientific developments and socio-economic trends could require new JRC activities by undertaking foresight and horizon scanning analyses.
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JRC ACTIVITIES
Two types of activities:
regular identification of potentially significant research results and technological advances
the horizon scan bulletin
long term in-depth analysis of issues deemed important for society in a longer time horizon
foresight studies
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Why are we doing this?
Develop strategic intelligence allowing the JRC to position itself in anticipation of S&T developments that will affect European policy initiatives and policy options
To exploit further the JRC scientific potential. JRC scientists have the privileged position of working in science with an eye on policy implications.
The Scanning the Horizon bulletin is the tool to deliver this early knowledge.
Contributors are scanners/analysts of what’s going on and their position is unique in pro-actively providing science advice to policy (or filling the gap between science and policy).
HORIZON SCANNING
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HORIZON SCANNING ACTIVITIES
Provide early identification of societal, scientific and technical issues which might require attention by Union Institutions for possible policy intervention
Develop strategic intelligence allowing the JRC to position itself in anticipation of S&T developments that will affect European policy initiatives and policy options
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WHY ARE WE DOING THIS? [1/2]
In addition to standard cooperation between Institutes and customer DGs, there is an enormous scientific potential within the JRC that is unexploited.
JRC scientists have the privileged position of working in science with an eye on policy implications.
This ‘6th sense’ has to be used to alert policy DGs on items that may require new thinking and action.
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WHY ARE WE DOING THIS? [2/2]
The Scanning the Horizon bulletin is the tool to deliver this early knowledge.
Contributors are scanners/analysts of what’s going on and their position is unique in pro-actively providing science advice to policy (or filling the gap between science and policy).
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IMPLICATIONS FOR THE JRC
Exploit tacit knowledge within the organisation including in areas of research where skills of scientists are unexploited
Learning mechanism for scientists to better articulate the policy dimension of rapidly evolving scientific and/or technological landscape
Provide a tool to anticipate future needs for scientific supportto the Commission
Horizon scanning can feed the selection of items to be further investigated (e.g. through Foresight)
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POTENTIAL IMPACTS OUTSIDE THE JRC
Better integration of scientific advice and knowledge into policymaking in the Commission
Promotional tool demonstrating JRC capacities to look ahead and engage with policy issues
Enlarge portfolio of customers
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ON-GOING FORESIGHT STUDIES [1/2]
• Foresight study for DG ENTR on the future of standards
The study seeks to explore the industrial landscape and production systems in
2025 as a basis to identify how and where an earlier development of standards
can facilitate innovation and competitiveness.
• Foresight study on "Tomorrow's healthy society - research priorities for foods and diets" for DG RTDI
The study will develop scenarios on future research and innovation priorities that
support the provision and consumption of foods and diets for health and well-
being based. It will support the implementation of the Horizon 2020 Framework
Programme for Research and Innovation from 2014 onwards.
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ON-GOING FORESIGHT STUDIES [2/2]
• Foresight study on the future of eco-industries
The study will look at the science gaps and future key technologies in the sector
of water and waste management, air quality, energy efficiency and renewables
that can provide innovation, new services and products.
• Foresight on Food security
The study will identify priority areas in food security where Europe can act by
developing targeted policies.
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• Thank you!
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CHALLENGES
Engagement of scientific staff across all JRC sites (develop a truly corporate product)Translate technical items in policy dimension Get comments and feedback from users (methodology)Animate and operate a web-based platform to motivate contributionsOpening up to new audiences
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Foresight policy functions
Actors
Policy
Actors
InsightsInsights
Actors
Better decisions
Foresight DialogueForesight Dialogue
Better decision making
Better implementation due to betterresponsiveness of actors
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BENEFITS OF FORESIGHT
Product benefits – Better understanding
• Distributed anticipatory intelligence on …• dynamics of change• upcoming challenges and
opportunities• strategic options
Process benefits – Better systems
• Enhanced system learning capability• common ground among key actors• shared learning platforms• new linkages of diverse elements• future oriented attitudes
Enhancedcapabilityto unlock
the potential
of the present
Enhancedcapabilityto unlock
the potential
of the present
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State of Development of Innovation System
Under Developed
Well Developed
Re-energising/
reorientating capability
Creating CapabilityMaintaining momentum
Breaking Consensus
• forming networks & institutions• human capitalH, IRL, P, NL-FSC, E, (NZ)
• S.W.O.T.• involve SMEs• consensus on priorities•UK#1, NL-MOEA, A, S
•critical technologies•new demands•new visionsNL-NRLO, SF, DK UK#2, F, D, J, US