FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) & POLITICAL AND COUNTRY RISK ANALYSES

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    AJAFIN 6605-08

    FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) &

    POLITICAL AND COUNTRY RISK ANALYSES

    FDI is the acquisition of fixed plants and

    equipment abroad.

    Outline:

    3 Market Imperfections that Lead to FDI:

    Market failure or imperfections in general.Product and factor markets.

    Financial markets.1

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    FDI Theories:

    Theory of Industrial Organization (IO)

    Provides insights into how firms behave in markets.

    It offers some explanations on the general

    circumstances under which exporting, licensing, orlocal production will be the preferred alternatives for

    exploiting foreign markets.

    The theory focuses on imperfect products and factormarkets.

    2

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    According to this theory, MNCs have intangible

    capital in the form of trademarks, patents, general

    marketing skills, and other organizational abilities.

    Exporting: will be preferred if MNCs' intangible

    assets - trademarks, patents, marketing or

    organizational abilities - can be embodied in theform of "hard-to-copy" products or products without

    adaptation.

    3

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    Licensing and Joint Ventures: will be preferred

    where the technology can be unbundled, transmitted

    objectively, and where the price is right. Also where

    the market is segmented and legal intensity problems

    can be overcome.

    Foreign Direct Investment:will be preferred if thetechnology is "inseparable" from the firm.

    Internalizing the market for an intangible asset by

    setting up a FDI makes economic sense if the benefitsfrom circumventing market imperfections outweigh

    the administrative and other costs of central (internal)

    control. 4

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    General Market Failures or Imperfections

    Market and firms are alternative instruments for

    completing a related set of transactions.

    Execution takes place across markets (externalization)or within a firm (internalization) depending on the

    relative efficiency of each mode.

    Costs of writing/executing contracts across marketsdepend on the human decision makers and the

    objective properties of the market. Similar set of factors apply to transactions within the

    firm.

    5

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    To understand why firms internalize, we mustexamine environmental and human factors thatmake writing/executing complex contingentclaims or contracts costly and hence why firmsturn to internalization.

    Why the Firm and not the Market?The firm is an institution that hires factors ofproduction to produce goods and services.

    Markets are also institutions that can coordinateeconomic decisions.Why should some economic activities take place

    in the one or the other? The answer is 'cost'.6

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    Firms internalize economic activities because of anumber of factors including: transaction costs,economies of scale and economies of team production

    (specialization). Transaction costs include: the costs of finding

    someone with whom to do business, the costs ofreaching agreement on the exchange, and, the costs of

    ensuring such agreements are fulfilled. Markets require that buyers and sellers find each

    other, get together, and negotiate.

    They also usually require lawyers to draw up contracts.Rather thanbuying a good or service on a market, firms canreduce such cost by internalizing their production.

    7

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    The Factors:

    Bounded Rationality:

    The limited capacity of the human mind to formulateand solve problems compared to the size of theproblems. Economic agents are limited in neuro-physiological, language, technical, and legal senses

    to identify future contingencies and specify, ex-ante,appropriate responses.With these limitations long-term contracts may besupplanted by internal organization.

    Opportunism:

    Lack of candor or honesty in transactions, self-interest seeking with guile.

    8

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    Competitive - Monopoly - Monopsony Environments:

    A competitive environment faces little risk ofopportunism, but competitive environments often

    degenerate to monopoly/monopsony environments.Many transactions that involve large number of qualified

    bidders at the outset are transformed into small numbersupply conditions at contract execution and renewal.

    Opportunism comes in the form of cost-overruns, inflatedprices, substandard qualities, etc.

    Asymmetric Information:

    obtains when one party to an exchange is much betterinformed than the other regarding the underlyingconditions.

    The other party cannot achieve information

    parity except at a great cost. 9

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    Advantages of Internal Organizations

    Parties to an internal exchange are less able to

    appropriate/ capitalize on subgroup gains at theexpense of the whole firm.

    Hence there exists a reduced incentive to behaveopportunistically.

    Internal organization can be more effectivelymonitored/audited.

    Internal organizations are able to settle disputes

    better/ faster.Efficient codes are more apt to evolve and be

    employed with confidence by parties in oneorganization.

    10

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    Internal organization promotes convergent

    expectations.

    The existence of market failures alone may not be

    sufficient to justify FDI.

    MNCs can succeed abroad only if their proprietary

    technology cannot be easily purchased or duplicatedby local competitors.

    MNCs must continue to create/preserve effective

    barriers to direct competition in product and factormarkets.

    11

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    Products and Factor Market Imperfections

    Proponents: Stephen Hymer (1960); Charles Kindleberger (1969)

    and Richard Caves (1971)

    Market imperfections may occur naturally, but they are

    usually attributed to policies of firms and governments. For

    example:

    Firms in oligopolistic industries seek to create uniquecompetitive advantages through product differentiation.

    Governments create market imperfections through tariffs and

    non-tariff barriers to trade, preferential purchasing policies, tax

    incentives, capital market controls and similar policies.

    Other

    government created market imperfections include EU, ECOWAS,

    European Free Trade Association (EFTA), OPEC, NAFTA, etc.

    12

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    Foreign firms operating in these markets must enjoy

    some competitive advantages over local firms in order

    to compensate for such inherent disadvantages as:

    Lack of knowledge about local customs.

    Differences in local tastes.

    Unfamiliar legal systems.

    Greater communication and control costs

    13

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    The most important competitive advantages enjoyed

    by multinational corporations include:

    Advantages in the goods market:Product differentiation

    Unique marketing skills

    Collusion in pricing

    Advantages in the factor market:

    Techniques protected by patents

    Special (superior) management skills

    Financial strength and access to diversified

    capital markets

    14

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    Advantages From Government Policies:

    Regulations limiting output

    Regulations limiting entry into an industry

    Taxation policies

    Free trade agreementsSubsidies

    16

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    Financial Market Imperfections

    Is a competing (complementing) hypothesis for

    explaining FDI.

    Multinational corporations are able to use a network

    of financial linkages to exploit wide variations in

    national tax systems and significantly reduce costs

    and barriers to international financial transfers.

    The ability to transfer funds and to reallocate

    resources or profits internally present MNCs with

    several types of arbitrage opportunities including:

    17

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    Tax Arbitrage

    Financial Market Arbitrage

    Regulatory System Arbitrage Use of internal financial transactions to confront

    various financial market imperfections

    Tax Arbitrage: Ability to reduce tax burdens by shifting

    profits from high-tax to low-tax subsidiaries.

    Financial Market Arbitrage: By transferring funds

    among units, MNCs are able to circumvent exchange

    controls, earn higher yield on excess funds, reduce cost of

    borrowed funds and tap previously inaccessible financial

    markets. 18

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    Regulatory System Arbitrage: When unit profits

    are impacted by government regulations or union

    pressures, MNCs are able to exploit marketimperfections for negotiating advantages.

    MNCs can control the mode and timing of

    internal financial transfers and thereby maximizeglobal profits.

    Mode of Transfer

    xTransfer pricing

    Timing Flexibility

    xLeading and lagging19

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    Notes:

    Extant literature on MNE and FDI focuses

    mainly on advanced economies.

    Emerging literature explores multinationals from

    developing economies

    New studies combine country characteristics and

    social relations as determinants of FDI.

    Firm and country characteristics are combinedwith institutional, political, economic, and cultural

    connections between source and hosts countries of

    FDI. 20

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    Theory of Developing Country MNEs:

    Vernon (1966) sees FDI as a natural stage in the lifecycle of a new product from its introduction to itsmaturity and eventual decline.

    Dunning (1981) and Ozawa (1992) propose a moregeneral approach called Investment Development

    Cycle.It states that initial inward investment (stage 1) will below labor cost and raw materials, with almost nooutward investment.

    In the second stage, firms will initiate outwardinvestment and seek low labor cost locations, whileinward FDI will be market seeking.

    In the last stage, both inward and outward FDI will be

    market oriented. 21

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    In Wells (1983) and Lall (1986), Third World

    MNEs are viewed as relatively passive recipients of

    technology and skills at the mature stage of their life

    cycles and that third world MNEs will develop

    smaller scale, labor intensive, multipurpose,

    technologies that use locally available inputs and

    allow them to compete on low price, rather thanproduct differentiation and innovation.

    But look at Tata Motors of India!

    22

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    Other FDI Theories:

    FDI decisions result from a complex process

    motivated by strategic, behavioral, and economicconsiderations.

    Strategic Considerations for FDI fall into in

    several classifications (not mutually exclusive):

    - Market seekers

    - Raw material seekers

    - Production efficiency seekers

    - Knowledge seekers

    - Political safety seekers 23

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    Behavioral Motives for FDI:

    Contend that FDI is often motivated by a

    strong stimulus from the external environment or

    from within the organization on the basis of personal

    biases, needs, and commitments of individuals or

    groups.

    The investigation process is very crucial.

    Economic Rationale for FDI:

    Based on the theory of imperfections

    in individual national markets for products, factors of

    production, and financial assets.

    24

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    Defensive FDI: May be motivated by:

    - Follow the leader behavior/strategy

    - Desire to establish credibility with local customers

    - Grow-to-survive philosophy

    - A desire to gain knowledge by acquiring firms with

    valuable expertise

    - A need to follow the customer (service firms)

    25

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    The Theory of Internalization:

    Holds that firms having competitive advantages becauseof their ability to generate valuable proprietary

    information can only capture the full benefit of innovation

    through FDI.

    In a desire to control the use of proprietary information

    MNCs are reluctant to unbundle their services to host

    countries in the form of management contracts and

    licensing agreements. They thus internalize

    Desire to deny rivals access to competitive resources is

    referred to as appropriability theory.

    26

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    Control through internal handling of operations

    rather than through contracts with other

    companies is often called internalization

    Compare Theory of Externalization

    Complementarity of Trade and FDI

    FDI usually not a substitute for trade.

    About one third of world trade is intra-firm.

    Many exports from parent to subsidiary would not

    occur if FDI does not exist.27

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    The Product Cycle Hypothesis

    The Eclectic Theory

    Portfolio Theory (Risk Diversification Hypothesis)

    Oligopoly Model - (Exploiting Quasi-monopoly Advantages)

    (imitative behavior by rival firms in an oligopolistic industry)

    Disclosure Paradox and Team Organizations

    Political Safety/Appeasement Motives

    Bandwagon Syndrome

    28

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    Strategies of MNCs

    Some MNCs rely on product innovation, others on

    product differentiation, yet others on cartels andcollusion to protect themselves from competitive

    threats.

    Innovation Reliant MNCs

    These MNCs create barriers to entry by continually

    introducing new products and differentiating existing

    ones - large R&D budgets; large pool of technicalpersonnel as opposed to factory personnel; behavior

    closely resembles that described by the product life

    cycle.29

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    "Matured" MNCs:

    Feature product differentiation; high advertisingexpenditures; highly developed marketing skills;economies of scale/scope.

    "Aging" MNCs:

    Their strategy includes entering new marketswhere market imperfections still exist, e.g.,Developing countries.

    3 Forming cartels3 Market sharing

    3 Using global scanning capacity to seek lower-cost

    production sites 30

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    Political and Country Risk Analysis: An Outline:

    Problems of Definition

    Government Action Vs. Environmental Changes

    Operational Definition

    "Discontinuities in the business environmentoccasioned by political developments"

    Distinction Between Political and Economic Risks

    Actors responsible for each condition

    31

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    Macro Approach Vs. Micro Approach

    Macro-measurement:

    Aggregate subjective assessments - expert opinion- generated,

    e.g., BERI, BIIER or BI, also Nikkei BI.

    Others employ quantified indicators of economic, social, and

    political factors, e.g., PSSI and Ecological Models.

    Micro-measurement:

    Companies differ in their susceptibility to political risks:

    Therefore extractive industries, utilities, financial services,

    manufacturing (heavy industries), service multinationals face

    different levels of risk.

    Managing Political Risk

    3 Pre-investment Planning

    3 Operating Policies

    3 Post Expropriation Policies 32

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    Country Risk Analysis

    Banks tend to address external environmental issues in

    terms of country risk.

    Political risk is treated as a subset of country risk.

    Definitions: Political Risk, Country Risk

    Country Risk Indicators

    3 Political factors: market oriented or statist policies

    3 Economic factors: capital flight, fiscal irresponsibility

    monetary instability, exchange rate instability,

    3 Subjective factors: attitude towards private

    enterprise, attitude towards multinationals.

    3 Indexes of political risk: BERI, PSSI, POR, CI, etc33

    B k A t f C t Ri k

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    Bank Assessment of Country Risk.

    Management of country risk:

    Avoidance; Adaptation; Dependency; Hedging;

    Proactive Strategies -(Operational)

    - Control of vital technology,

    - Develop local allies,

    - Local borrowing,- Multiple production sources,

    - Transfer-pricing capability,

    * for managing exchange controls

    * for exploiting discriminatory taxation- Lobby local (host) government officials or business

    leaders

    - Take out OPIC/MIGA insurance.

    34

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    Political Risk Assessment for FDI

    3 Problems of Definition:

    Most studies identify political risk with government actionsthat impact on business operations.

    Others have defined political risk on the basis of environmental

    changes due to political developments like acts of violence,

    instability, riots that have repercussions on business activity.

    3 These Definitions are Interdependent.

    Environmental changes can prompt government actions as

    much as government action/activity can provokeenvironmental developments.

    Robock (CJWB, 1971) offered an operational definition of political

    risk as follows: "discontinuities in the business environment

    occasioned by political developments." 35

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    Distinction Between Political and Economic Risks:

    Political Risks: stem from changes in policy positions or

    environmental conditions.

    Economic Risks: are associated with changes concerning

    market, competitive, and technological factors that diminish

    a firm's effectiveness and profit potential.

    3 Actors responsible for political risks becoming an actuality

    are more easily identifiable than those responsible for the

    economic risks becoming an actuality.

    3 Country, industry, and firm characteristics influence the

    political vulnerability and intensity of political risk for a

    business firm. 36

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    Macro Approach:

    Dimensions that affect all business enterprises in general.

    Micro Approach:

    Dimensions that impact in a selective manner on

    specific business activity.

    Macro Measurement:

    A number of commercial and academic political

    risk forecasting models are available.

    * BERI - Business Environment Risk Index.

    * BIIER- Business International Index for

    Environmental Risk 37

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    These are aggregate subjective assessments of a panelof experts (typically via a Delphi Method).

    3 Others rely on quantified indicators of economic,social, and political factors, e.g.,

    3 Political System Stability Index (PSSI) suggested by

    Haendel and West (1975).3 Ecological Model Approach - based on the

    proposition that the crucial measure of stability is the

    frustration level in society.3 Profit Opportunity Recommendation Rating (POR)

    3 Global Corruption Index

    38

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    Micro Measurement:

    Companies differ in their susceptibility to political

    risk, depending on their industry, size,composition of ownership, level of technology,

    and degree of vertical integration, e.g.,

    - Extractive Industries, e.g., gold, oil, etc.- Utilities

    - Financial Services

    - Manufacturing- Service Multinationals

    39

    l h h i d l b fi

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    3 In general the greater the perceived or actual benefit

    of a MNC to the host economy, and the more

    expensive its replacement by a purely local operation,

    the lower the degree of political risk to a MNC.

    3 When a MNC invests in a foreign country, it is

    writing a call option to the host government.The host government will

    exercise this option, such as expropriating the MNC

    property, only if the gains exceed the strike price, i.e.,

    the option is in the money.

    40

    i i i i

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    Managing Political Risks

    Pre-investment Planning:

    * Avoidance* Insurance

    * Negotiating the environment

    * Structuring the investment

    41

    O i P li i

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    Operating Policies:

    * Planned divestment

    * Short-Term profit max* Changing the perceived benefit/cost ratio of host govt.

    * Developing local stockholders

    * Adaptation e.g., lobbying/politicking* International production "network" strategy

    * Controlling the location of intangible assets

    * Local purchasing strategy* "Sourcing" and "movement" of funds policy

    42

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    C t Ri k A l i

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    Country Risk Analysis:

    Country risk analysis is now a standard procedure in

    international lending:In the 1970s big money center banks and regionalbanks lent billions of dollars to developing andsocialist countries.

    The international debt crisis that followed in the wake of"unrestricted" lending has drawn attention to the need toassess "factors" that affect the likelihood that a "nation"

    can be in default.

    Instead of political risk, banks prefer to discussexternal environmental issues in terms of "country

    risk". Political is treated as a subset of country risk.44

    3 C t i k l i b di th t f

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    3 Country risk analysis embodies the assessment of

    the potential risks associated with doing business in

    the political, economic, cultural and social

    environment of a country.

    3

    It examines Political Economy, the interaction ofpolitics and economics, to uncover political factors

    that give rise to particular economic policies

    (monetary and fiscal policies, exchange rate policies,

    trade controls, labor laws, propertyrights, etc)

    45

    D fi iti f T

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    Definition of Terms

    3 Political riskcan be defined as political events that have

    potential to cause financial, strategic or personnel losses

    for a firm.

    3 Country riskrefers to elements of risk inherent in doing

    business in the economic, social, and political

    environment of another country.

    A political event in itself does not necessarily constitute a

    risk to business.

    Even a revolution as the most dramatic form of political

    instability is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition

    for changes in policy relevant to foreign investment

    (Kobrin, 1979). 46

    E l

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    Examples:

    (1) Gulf oil in 1975 was able to negotiate a very

    favorable relationship with the Marxist MPLAduring the Angolan civil war.

    (2) Dow chemical was able to re-enter Chile after the

    overthrow of Salvador Allende in 1973.

    (3) Iraq- Kuwait- Desert Storm- (Gulf War), 1992,

    provide booming business to oil fire fightingcompanies, and patriot missile manufactures

    ( e.g. Raytheon).

    47

    3 Th li k b t liti l t d i k

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    3 The linkage between political events and risks

    is often rooted in managerial decisions or the

    absence of such decisions.

    3 Political turbulence and uncertainty can be

    proactively managed into targets of competitive

    opportunity - if management understands themultidimensional and complex nature of political

    risk.

    3 Socio-cultural, political, and economic

    phenomena are highly interrelated.

    48

    Diff t ki d f liti l i k t b

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    Different kinds of political risk events can be

    divided into either:

    Extra-legal: any event that originates from outsidethe existing authority such as terrorism, sabotage,

    military coups, revolutions, etc.

    Legal-Governmental: a direct product of the

    ongoing political process and includes such events

    as democratic elections, changes in the law

    concerning trade, labor, joint-venture, subsidy,

    technology, monetary, and developmental

    policies.49

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    I di t f L E i H lth

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    Indicators of Long-run Economic Health

    3 Incentives that reward risk-taking in productive

    ventures.3 Legal system that promotes the development of free

    markets.

    3 Minimal government intervention in the economy.3 Stable macroeconomic policies.

    3 Open economy.

    3 Incentives to save and invest.3 Political safety.

    3 Existence of basic human rights and freedom of the press.

    51

    Market oriented Vs Statist Policies:

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    Market-oriented Vs Statist Policies:

    Empirical evidence since the end of WWII shows that

    market economies work and command economies do not.

    3 In a market economy (capitalism), economic

    decisions are made by individual economic agentsbased on prices of good , services, capital, labor, land,

    and other factors.

    3 In a command economy (socialism/communism),

    the leaders decide what, how, where, who, and quantity

    of production, and then command others to follow the

    central plan. 52

    3 The basic difference between a market economy

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    3 The basic difference between a market economy

    and a command economy is the way they harness

    information and incentives.

    3 Markets work because economic decisions are made

    by those who have the information necessary to

    determine the trade-off that must be made and theappropriateness of those trade-offs given their unique

    skills, circumstances, and preferences along with

    market prices that indicate the relative values and

    costs placed on those activities by the society.

    3 Pure command economies are now (2000s) rare

    except Cuba and North Korea.53

    3 Many nations follow statist policies in which markets

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    3 Many nations follow statist policies in which markets

    are combined with heavy government intervention in

    the economy through various regulations, tax and

    spending policies.The state typically owns critical industries e.g.

    minerals, air transportation, telecommunications,

    aerospace, healthcare, oil, and power generation.

    3 The centralization of economic power in the state as

    seen in developing/third world countries has turned

    the state into a huge patronage machine and generateda complex and corrupt bureaucracy to administer ill-

    defined and all-encompassing rules and regulations.

    54

    3 As a result, corrupt and inept officials use the

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    As a result, corrupt and inept officials use the

    controls and regulations to enrich themselves andfurther the interests of their ethnic groups, and/or

    religious, or professional class, at the expense ofnational economic health and well-being.

    Examples: Russia, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, The

    Philippines, Malaysia, Mexico, Most countries in

    Africa, Middle and South America, Middle East,

    and Eastern Europe.

    3 Also compare and contrast: former East and West

    Germany, North and South Korea, Hong Kong andTaiwan with Mainland China, and Singapore with

    Malaysia.

    55

    A li i

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    Applications

    3 As a result of the 1991 Gulf war, many MNCs

    reassessed their exposure to country risk and revisedtheir operations accordingly.

    3 With the Asian crisis of 1997-98, many MNCs

    realized that they had underestimated the potentialproblems that could occur in high growth Asian

    Emerging Markets.

    3 After 9/11 attack on the U.S., many MNCs adjustedtheir business operations in countries where U.S.

    firms may be targets of terrorists.

    56

    APPENDIX

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    APPENDIX

    COMMONLY USED VARIABLES IN COUNTRY RISK ANALYSISQuantitative Variables Qualitative Factors

    Macroeconomic- GDP growth (nominal & in real terms)

    - Per Capita GDP level

    - Per Capita GDP increase (real terms)

    - Savings to GDP (over time)

    - - Investments to GDP (over time)

    - Share foreign trade in GDP- Current account deficit to GDP (over

    time)

    - Debt service to GDP

    - Debt service to savings

    - Debt service to public revenues

    - Debt interest and direct investments

    earnings of foreigners to GDP

    - Short term external debt to GDP

    - Foreign debt to GDP

    - External liabilities (debt and quality) to

    GDP

    - Type of government- Orderliness of political succession

    - Political stability

    - Leadership ability demonstrated by

    present government

    - External political threats (war)

    - Potential domestic political threats(political unrest, riots, radical changes

    of policy)

    - Existence of political opposition

    - Political freedom

    - Ethnic minorities

    - Persistent internal political chaos

    - Effectiveness of government in

    formulating policies regarding

    important social and political

    problems

    57

    Quantitative Factors Qualitative Factors

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    Quantitative Factors Qualitative Factors

    - Consumer prices index CPI (over time)

    - Wholesale prices index WPI (over

    time)- Comparison CPI and WPI

    - Money supply growth

    - Money supply growth to GDP growth

    - Domestic assets banking system (overtime)

    - Domestic credit creation (over time)- Currency to total bank deposits

    - Governmental spending to GDP

    - Tax revenues to GDP

    - Government deficit to GDP

    - Military spending to GDP

    - Level of short-term interest rates (overtime)

    - Relative purchasing power of currency(inflation rate to exchange rate

    changes)

    - Institutions designed to provide for

    resolution of political and social

    - Governments ability to instituteeconomic reforms

    - Institutional structures designed to bring

    competing influences to bear upon

    government policies

    - Ideological differences between rulingparties and political opposition

    - Foreign investment climate

    - Threat of nationalization

    - Refusal to compensate expropriated

    investors

    - Nationalization-expropriation record

    - Hospitality to private and foreign

    capital

    58

    Quantitative Factors Qualitative Factors

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    External Accounts

    -Total reserves

    - Total reserves changes over time

    - Reserves minus gold- Reserves minus gold over time

    - Availability IMF credit

    - IMF credit to gross reserves

    - Net foreign assets

    - External assets commercial banks- Reserves to imports

    - Months-of-imports covered by reserves

    - External debt to reserves

    - Short-term external debt to reserves

    - Debt service ratio (and over time)- Public debt to exports (goods and

    services)

    - External debt to GDP

    - Interest payments to exports (G & S)

    - Income distribution

    - Homogeneity of population

    - Investment in human capital

    - Poverty- Existence of widespread corruption

    - Importance of social security

    - Education level of population

    - Regional economic structure

    - Degree of development anddiversification of economy

    - Infrastructures

    - Energy position

    - State of economy and prospects

    - Quality of government- Fiscal and monetary policies

    - Effectiveness of monetary policies

    - Governments economic development

    plans

    59

    Quantitative Factors Qualitative Factors

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    - Current investment service ratio (includes

    debt service and profits on foreign owned

    investments)

    - Principal payments to total external debt- Total foreign debt

    - Debt growth (%)

    - External debt to current account receipts

    - Composition external debt

    - Debt to Western banks- Time profile ratios

    - Share short-term debt in total

    - Borrowing on international markets

    - Eurocurrency loans and bonds

    - Average spread Euromarket borrowing- Current account

    - Current account imbalance over time

    - Current account imbalance to exports (G &S)

    - Current account to GDP

    - Current account adjustment policies

    - Persistent overspending in public

    sector

    - Wage-price policies

    - Exchange rate policies

    - Import restraint policy

    - Control of inflation

    - Foreign exchange controls

    - Regulatory policies in financial sector

    - Banking system

    - Domestic capital markets

    - Sophistication financial institutions

    - Relative importance of private

    investments

    - Access to foreign capital markets

    - Reputation for economic stability

    - Countrys repayment record

    - Current collection experience60

    Quantitative Factors Qualitative Factors

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    Q Q

    -Overall balance of payments over time

    -Basic balance of payments over time

    -Trade balance

    -Trade balance over time

    -Exports (goods)

    -Export trends over time

    -Export concentration, excluding oil

    -Export vulnerability

    -Export stability

    -Export diversity

    -Export market concentration-Export goods and services

    -Imports (goods)

    -Import trends over time

    -Import composition

    -Import compressibility

    -Import dependence

    -Petroleum imports-Trade account improvement/deterioration

    -Terms of trade over time

    -Main trading partners

    -Percentage change exports to percentage

    change imports

    -Import coverage (imports to exports)

    -Quality of management in public

    and private sector

    -Availability of technical andmanagement skill

    -Effectiveness of entrepreneurial class

    -Labor force

    -Ability to take part in complex

    modern occupations-Unemployment as percent of labor

    force

    -External debt under control

    -Import composition

    -Quality relationship with major

    trading partners

    -Quality of relationship with U.S.A.

    -Quality of relationship with IMF

    -Willingness to provide data

    61

    Other Variables

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    - Major natural resources

    - Population growth

    - Population density

    - Degree of literacy of people

    - Per capita expenditure on education

    - Percentage of university graduates in population

    - Density of medical facilities

    - Gainful employment ratio- Employment by economic sector

    - Unemployment trend

    - Degree of union organization

    - Consumption (individual households)

    - Extent of industrialization

    - Import substitution industries

    - Membership in trade pacts

    - Membership in political and economic power blocks

    - Bankruptcy rate 62

    3 Web Resources:

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    3 Web Resources:

    Moodys: www.moodys.com

    S&P www.standardandpoors.com

    http://www.moodys.com/http://www.standard/http://www.standard/http://www.moodys.com/