FORECASTING PROFESSIONAL SKILLS IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT

8/7/2019 FORECASTING PROFESSIONAL SKILLS IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT

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FORECASTING PROFESSIONAL SKILLS IN THESOUTH AFRICAN BUILT ENVIRONMENT

Authors: Merrifield, A., Mbuthia, G., Manchidi, E. and Nkado, R.

Abstract

This paper reports on aspects of study undertaken by the Council for the Built Environment (CBE),the overarching body for the built environment professions, to determine the present and forecastedskills demand for the built environment professions in South Africa. This paper focuses on theforecast of professionals skills and discussed how such a forecast was constructed (the broadermethodological questions are discussed in a separate paper by Mbuthia, G et al).

The paper seeks to explain how the forecasted demand for professional skills in the South Africanbuilt environment was created. It seeks to discuss the nature of the South African construction andinfrastructure economy, and how demand in such an economy determines the skills requirements forparticular built environment skills. It argues that the dynamics of such an economy make it difficult to

make use of formal modelling techniques and instead suggests that a more contextual analysis isrequired. The paper also refers to similar studies conducted in the South Africa and discusses thepolicy implications of such research. This contextual analysis is then used to create two scenarios forskills demand.

Whilst the research reported in this paper is perhaps limited by its lack of formal modellingtechniques, it seeks to show that a more contextual approach can still be useful in the policyenvironment because it may force policy makers to reassess their assumptions although it is too earlyto say whether this has occurred in South Africa. Finally, given that the original forecast wasconstructed more than 12 months ago, and events anticipated in the forecast have come to pass, thepaper concludes by assessing the usefulness of such studies.

Keywords: construction demand, skills forecasting, built environment professions

1. INTRODUCTION

The concern over built environment skills really only surfaced in the early 2000s when, after a longperiod of slow growth in the built environment sector, the construction and related infrastructuresectors took off. As we can see from Graph 1 below, after reaching a highpoint in the mid-1980s,most construction investment declined or stagnated till the early 2000s.


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FORECASTING BUILT ENVIRONMENT PROFESSIONAL SKILLS IN SOUTH AFRICA2

Graph 1: Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Asset Type

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Years

Construction GFCF by Asset Type

Residential

NonResidential

Civil Works

Source: SARB Q42008

The above graph also shows, that not only was the construction sector in decline for almosttwo decades, but that the various sub-sectors of the construction economy experienced significantvolatility. One of the main impacts of this decline and volatility was that built environment skills in thecountry were depleted as professionals, technicians and skilled artisans migrated to other industriesand/or countries (Merrifield 1994, Lawless 2005).

It is therefore not surprising that in the early 2000s, concerns about skills shortages began tosurface due to the improvement in demand in the various construction sectors. The private sectorremained the main driver of this demand with mega-projects like Sasols Project Turbo and variousproperty developments (NACI 2003, Merrifield 2006). The 2003 NACI study was largely prompted byconcerns in Sasol and various mining houses that there were insufficient built environment skills tomeet the demand of new projects. By 2006, the concerns had been exacerbated by new projects

being announced in the private and public sectors as the country experienced significant growth forthe first time in decades. By the time the CIDB study (Merrifield 2006) and the PCAS Study (SudeoIBC 2007) were commissioned the construction economy was running a close to full capacity and theskills challenge had been identified by a team of international economists advising the Presidency asone of the binding constraints to growth (Hausmann 2008).

In structures such as the Joint Initiative on Priority Skills Acquisition (JIPSA) and the variousworking groups set up by government to promote economic growth (ASGISA - Accelerated & SharedGrowth Initiative for South Africa), skills shortages were identified as having the potential of haltingthe current and expected economic growth trajectory (Merrifield et al 2006). Other governmentinitiatives to promote service delivery in local government highlighted skills constraints in this part ofthe infrastructure sector (Lawless 2005, 2008). In addition, ambitious plans to promote local industrydevelopment on the back of the electricity and transportation infrastructure investment thrusts made

the skills issue seem all the more urgent (TSAPRO 2008, CBE 2008b, Merrifield 2009).


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DETERMINING THE DEMAND FOR BUILT ENVIRONMENT PROFESSIONAL SKILLS 3

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Graph 2: Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Organisation

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GFCF by Organisation

Government

Public Corp

Private

Source: SARB Q42008

As we see from Graph 2 above, the private sector has consistently led in investing ininfrastructure and related construction goods and services and it is only in the last ten years that the

public sector and public corporations have begun to show improvement. In the mid-2000s the privatesector was investing heavily propelled largely by the revival of the commodities markets especially forminerals and metals. On top of an already active property market, the commodities marketsexperienced the longest sustained boom since the Second World War (discussed in CBE 2008b,Merrifield 2009).

If we examine the economic sectors that have driven this growth in infrastructure investment(Graph 3 below), we find that the finance, property and business services have been the leadeconomic sector, followed by manufacturing and community services. Obviously the first two areprivate sector oriented whilst the third is public sector. Public corporation investment has in recentyears also become more prominent with transportation and communication ranking fourth andelectricity coming in seventh although it reflects significant growth in the 2000s. Other key privatesectors include wholesale and retail (fifth) and mining (sixth). The latter in particular reflects the

extreme volatility of the mining sector.


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Graph 3: Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Sector

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

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Years

GFCF by Economic Activity

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

Mining and Quarrying

Manufacturing

Electricity gas and water

Construction

Wholesale and Retail Trade, Catering and

Accomodation

Transport, Storage and Communication

Finance, Property and Business Services

Community Services

Source: SARB Q42008

Given the above trends, it was not surprising that policy makers assumed that growth wassustainable and that skills shortages were likely to be a concern as more and more infrastructureinvestment projects were announced (Nedbank 2008). The massive increase in large or mega-projects tended to distort perceptions that skills shortages were likely to overwhelm economic growth.In the CBE report on demand side issues, these mega projects were analysed and disaggregated.What we found was that even though there was a significant expansion of such mega-projects (see

Graph 4 below), most of these projects required specialised skills which were not in demand in othersuch projects. It was only at the level of more generic and basic skills that there would be completionfor skills amongst such projects (Merrifield 2006, CBE 2006b).

For instance, a large component of the electricity infrastructure investment was in coal-firedpower stations whilst a significant component of the transportation investment was in harbourupgrades (mainly cranes or dredging) and pipelines. Although there would be significant competitionin some built environment fields such as civil engineering, the most critical skills demands would befor highly trained and experienced specialists such as turbine engineers or pipeline engineers whowould be required in small numbers (in the order of magnitude of tens rather than hundreds orthousands). Although the companies involved in such infrastructure development were struggling tofind such specialists in a world market which was experiencing 5-6% growth (in 2005-7), and whonoticeably complained about such skills shortages in the media and in government sponsored

forums, such skills shortages were ultimately overcome in traditional ways (paying higher salaries,overseas recruitment, etc.). The larger demand for skills for such projects was in more basic andgeneric professional and artisanal skills which could be supplied through improved training andmentoring programmes (Merrifield et al 2006).


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Graph 4: Mega-Projects by Sector

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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Sectors

Mining

Transport

Telcomms

Stadia

PetroChems

Industrials

Electricity

Airports

Source: Engineering News Database

In light of these concerns in both the public and private sectors, it was inevitable that theCouncil for the Built Environment (CBE) would commission research to understand the demand forskills in the built environment. In that study, the authors of this paper refined a series of assumptionswhich would enable them to forecast the demand for such skills.

Understanding the demand for skills

There are a number of recent South African studies that have sought to understand the skillschallenges around built environment professionals. These studies were commissioned by publicsector institutions with private sector support and their intended purpose was to assist these

institutions to address any future skills shortages.

These include1:

2003 National Advisory Council on Innovation (NACI) study, 2005 South African Institute of Civil Engineering (SAICE) study, 2006 Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB) study, 2007 study done for the Policy Co-ordination and Advisory Services (PCAS) in the Presidency,

and 2008 Council for the Built Environment (CBE) Skills Audit (Demand Side), 2008 Council for the Built Environment (CBE) Skills Audit (Supply Side), 2009 Employment Promotion Project (EPP) Study on the demand for skills in the Electricity

Sector.

With the exception of the SAICE and the CBE (Supply Side) studies which will be discussedfurther below, the five other studies employ a similar methodology. All these studies sought toestimate the future growth in the particular environments they analyzed, and on the basis of thatestimate they decomposed the volume of growth into specific industry and project sub-sectors. Theythen used estimates of skills required per project type to calculate the number of people withparticular skills that would be required. In other words, these studies sought to quantify the amount of

1The full citations are included in the bibliography. The primary author of this paper was responsible for the

2006 CIDB study, the forecasting component of the CBE Skills Audit (Demand Side) and the 2009 EPP Study.


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future work and then attempted to account for the numbers required to perform that work. In allinstances they used expert opinion to quantify the skills requirements.

The five studies tended to focus largely on the future flow of work (and skills required) and didnot provide sufficient analysis of the existing stock of skills. The implicit assumption was that this newquantum of work was over and above the existing levels of demand. Although in at least threeinstances (the CIDB, the PCAS, and EPP studies) flow as well as stock of skills was estimated, noneof these studies focused on the issue of the stock of available skills. By contrast, the SAICE studyprovided an in-depth analysis of the current stock of civil engineering skills and showed how thisstock was rapidly being depleted. The CBE (Supply Side) study attempted to provide similar analysisfor all the built environment professions but the level of data aggregation only offered a macroperspective.

Clearly the future demand for skills will ultimately be determined both by the increase in thelevel of new work as well as the current depletion of the infrastructure skills base. However, thispaper, which is based on work completed for the CBE (Demand Side) study, will focus primarily onthe demand side forecasting.

The above review of recent South African studies suggests that there is a future professionalskills deficit but that the quantum of demand is within manageable levels. All studies have sought to

project future skills demands by understanding the level of demand in the industry as a whole and inthe four latter studies, CIDB, PCAS, CBE and EPP, this future demand is dis-aggregated into specificconstruction sub-sectors and mega-projects. Such an analysis reveals that much of the value offuture infrastructure investment will be in materials, plant and equipment, and that the demand forprofessional skills is in the order of magnitude of hundreds and thousands. If however, one were todecompose these hundreds and thousands, the demand for high-level specialists will be in the orderof tens, and it is only in the more junior categories where there is a demand for a couple of hundredsin each sub-sector.

Finally, it should be noted that despite the concerns expressed in the earlier studies that theindustry would not be able to cope with the sudden increase in demand, four years after these earlystudies were initiated the industry is still coping, albeit at high levels of capacity utilization. What thisindicates is not that concern over skills shortages is misplaced (there is ample evidence discussed

further below that skills constraints will continue to be a problem), but that it is reasonable toanticipate that the industry, and the professions, will also seek ways to mitigate these constraints. Byso doing, the overall productivity of the built environment will improve.

Beyond the substantive conclusions summarised above, these studies also suggest that thatthere is a series of assumptions

2involved when one is seeking to understand the skills requirements

for the development, operations and maintenance of infrastructure:

1. It can be assumed that the available stock of infrastructure must be operated, maintained andperhaps rehabilitated or decommissioned. The state of the infrastructure stock matters. Firstly, if,as in the case of electricity in South Africa

3, it under-supplies current and future demand then it

can be expected that in addition to operating and maintaining such infrastructure, it will benecessary to add the current stock to meet new demand. Such an increase in supply will have

skills requirements over and above what would normally be required for operations andmaintenance. Secondly, if the existing infrastructure stock has not been maintained adequately,the condition of the infrastructure is likely to affect normal operations, and therefore, given the

2These assumptions were used in the CBE 2008b paper upon which this paper is based. It has also been used by

the primary author in several other of his forecasts especially Merrifield 2006, Merrifield 2009.3

Electricity is the most obvious sector because of the recently experienced blackouts, but almost across all

major sectors including transportation (especially roads, rail and ports), water, social facilities (hospitals,

schools, prisons) there is a significant maintenance deficit (see Merrifield 1999).


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likelihood of an increased level of outages, additional skills may be required for operations,maintenance and even rehabilitation to restore the current stock to an acceptable service level.

2. It can be assumed that there is an available stock of skills to operate and possibly develop newinfrastructure. As a result of the stagnation in infrastructure development since the early 1990s, itis likely that the stock of people with the skills and experience of developing and operating suchinfrastructure would have diminished due to retirements, emigration and death (amongst otherthings). Thus in determining skills requirements, it is necessary to estimate current and futureneeds but also understand the state of the skills supply (both in terms of whether thereplacements have appropriate training and experience). If the supply is unable to replace thoselost and those required for new infrastructure development, then it can be assumed that there willbe a skills deficit.

3. It can be assumed that where the technologies, construction, manufacturing and labourprocesses remain the same as before, that the skills shortfall will largely be the differencebetween the skills required to meet redress the deficit in infrastructure stock and the availableskills. However, where technologies, construction, manufacturing and labour processes havechanged significantly from those in the past, then even if there is a sufficient stock of availableskills, these may not be appropriate for the new infrastructure developments. It can also beassumed that some replacement skilled personnel may have the appropriate training in these

new technologies, construction, manufacturing and labour processes, but not sufficient workexperience to apply this training, whilst those within the existing skills pools may have workexperience but insufficient familiarity with the new technologies, construction, manufacturing andlabour processes. In either circumstance a skills deficit will arise.

4. It can be assumed that the degree of specialisation will intensify with both training andexperience. Whilst the majority of skills required will be more basic and generic which means thatpeople with these skills can be assigned to a variety of tasks without loss of quality orproductivity, those with the more specialised skills will be more difficult to substitute. Fortunately,research shows that the demand for highly specialised skills is relatively low and therefore can bemore easily addressed than is generally assumed in the discourse over skills shortages(Merrifield 2006). Key to this assumption is the understanding that skills shortages are ofteninversely related to the level of specialisation. It may be expensive and may require a significant

amount of time and energy to recruit such specialists, but ultimately the cost, time and energy ismitigated because there are only a small number of such specialists required. By contrast, theremay be a need for many more basic and generic skills, but this demand is mitigated by the factthat there is greater substitutability amongst these more basic skills sets and, also, that it is easierto recruit, train and provide the appropriate work experience for the greater numbers of thesebasic skills.

5. It can be assumed that the state of the national and international economy has an impact on thedemand for skills. When the skills first became an issue in the early 2000s, the South African andWorld Economy were undergoing the longest economic boom since the Second World War. Inaddition, after almost twenty years of neglect, the government and parastatals had embarked onan ambitious infrastructure investment programme. Notwithstanding the pressures arising fromthese two drivers, there have been few reports of any projects being delayed or postponed

because of skills shortages. Skills were difficult to come by, but they have not yet interrupted thenew infrastructure development4. Now, with the world and national economy in a significant

recession, with little prospect of an early improvement, it can be assumed that more skills willbecome available as firms postpone new investment and those firms involved in infrastructuredelivery downsize.

All the above assumptions were tested in the research process and were used to develop twoscenarios to forecast future skills demand in the built environment professions.

4See CBE 2008b data from firms which not reported in detail in this paper.


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Using scenarios to develop an understanding of future skills demand

In the forecasts of the demand for professional skills certain simplifying assumptions were made. Theforecasts are based on the broad SARB defined categories of residential, non-residential and civilworks since these aggregates define the main sectors of built environment activity. They alsoprovided long and stable time-series data against which to measure any future impact. Residentialrefers to all housing from low-income housing units through to multi-story apartments and from singleunits to multiple unit projects. Non-residential encompasses commercial and retail property, educationand health infrastructure (for both public and private sector) and other building related work. Civilworks encompasses most of the mega projects in the infrastructure services from transportation,water and sanitation, energy, petro-chemicals and mining and industrial related developments.

Based on historic trends and anticipated changes in different economic sector as signalled bythe mega-project announcements, a series of high and low scenarios were developed for the totalGFCF, construction specific GFCF and the three construction sub-sectors (see Graphs 5 to 8 below).These projections were then converted into skills projections for the different built environment skillsprofessions. The skills breakdowns were calculated from survey data commissioned by the study, tofind the quantum and categories of skills required for a certain volume of work in the different

construction sub-sectors.The survey provided a breakdown of skills per project and sought the numbers of

professionals in ten categories5. The survey enabled the researchers to concluded that the skills

demand differed both by project type and project size across the three built environment sectors.Through a sensitivity analysis, it was then determined that project size ultimately had a limited impacton overall skills demand across the project sizes although this studys projections have endeavouredto err on the upper limit rather than the lower limit. However, the same project mix was used for allthree sectors since a 20% variation in project mix did not significantly affect the forecasts.

In terms of the three built environment sectors, the projections sought to define a basket ofskills (number of professionals by skills category) for each sector. These clearly differed betweensectors although the difference within sectors was so insignificant it did not justify a furtherbreakdown. This assumption was reinforced by the realization that it would be virtually impossible toestimate the intra-sectoral breakdown across the forecast period. Therefore, the professional skills

basket differs across the three built environment sectors but not within each of these sectors, sincethe variation within sectors did not have a major impact on the overall forecast. This means that, forinstance, the architecture, property valuation and landscape architecture professions do not feature inthe civil works sector although it is expected that a limited number of such skills will be used in thissector. However, any skills deficit arising from an underestimation in this sector is likely to becompensated for across all three sectors. Therefore, a forecast is provided for each professionalcategory in each of the sectors they are expected to be active, and then summed-up that in theanalysis of total demand per professional category.

These scenarios spelt out what would happen if current trends would continue (the highscenario) and what will happen if, as has happened before, these trends are slowed down orinterrupted (the low scenario). Ultimately, reality may be somewhere between these two scenarios,laying out the outer parameters provides a better position from which to estimate the demand for builtenvironment professionals.

5For convenience these ten categories were selected to gather data through interviews since they give an

indicative sense of the most common skills required across the three built environment sectors. A fuller

discussion of the interviews is provided in CBE 2008b.


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Graph 5: High and Low Scenarios for total GFCF

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High Scenario

Low Scenario

Source: CBE 2008b

It is apparent that even with the low scenario, the growth of fixed capital continues albeit at a

slow rate. GFCF should increase by about 50% from current levels (from R220 billion to R330 billion).The high scenario exhibits consistent increases such that the level of GFCF in 2025 will be almostfive times current levels (from R220 billion to R980 billion). In Graph 5, the total GFCF values wereused because as discussed in above, a major impetus for future demand will be the mega-projects ofthe public corporations, and a large component of these projects is plant and equipment and transportequipment. Plant and equipment and transport GFCF have traditionally grown at a faster rate thanconstruction GFCF.

However, given that this studys focus is primarily on the built environment, a projection hasalso been developed using similar assumptions for the construction specific GFCF (Graph 6).

Graph 6: Construction Specific GFCF Scenarios

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Construction Only GFCF

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Low scenario

Source: CBE 2008b

These results for construction specific GFCF are slightly different because the componentsmaking up these GFCF projections are different and experience different growth trajectories. Againthe low scenario sees a gradual increase to about 50% higher GFCF (from about R80 billion to R120billion) over the period. The high scenario again shows just over a four times level of growth over theperiod (from R80 billion to R336 billion) reflecting the slower growth rates of construction GFCF.


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Turning to the different construction sectors, civil engineering is anticipated to be the primarybeneficiary of both the high and low scenarios due to the mega-projects and other components of theGovernments infrastructure drive.

Graph 7: High Scenario by Construction Sector

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

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High Scenario

Residential

NonResidential

Civil Works

Source: CBE 2008b

In the low scenario, the impact of the mega-projects is even more pronounced onconstruction works as both residential and non-residential experience virtually no growth over theperiod.

Graph 8: Low Scenario by Construction Sector

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Low Scenario by Asset

Residential

NonResidential

Civil Works

Source: CBE 2008b

As noted above, the shape of the projected trend lines is largely determined by the immediateimpact of the mega-projects which will continue even if the economy experiences a downturn.Eventually, as was seen in South Africa in the late 1980s, even the public corporations will close thetap and civil engineering demand will decline (due to overcapacity issues).

Using the estimates of skills required per construction category, we were then able to developa set of high and low projections for specific built environment skills.

Table 1: Demand for professionals under a high scenario


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Professional Category Year

2008 2012 2016 2020 2024

Architect 2500 3200 3900 5200 8500

Quantity surveyor 2800 4000 5300 6600 9500

Structural engineer 2000 3100 4200 5100 7000Civil engineer 2700 4400 6200 7300 9200

Mechanical engineer 2100 3100 4300 5200 7000

Electrical engineer 2200 3200 4400 5400 7300

Property valuer 1200 1542 1881 2501 4142

Construction manager 2000 3100 4200 5100 6800

Construction project manager 2000 3000 4200 5000 6700

Landscape architect 1000 1300 1600 2200 3600

Total 20500 29942 40181 49601 69742

Source: CBE 2008b

The high scenario skills projection suggests that most skills categories will increase aroundthreefold from current levels. However, even though such increases are significant, they aremanageable given the long time period over which these skills will be required.

Table 2: Demand for professionals under a low scenario

Professional Category Year

2008 2012 2016 2020 2024

Architect 2500 1800 1600 1900 2700

Quantity surveyor 2800 2600 2600 2700 3200

Structural engineer 2000 2100 2200 2200 2400

Civil engineer 2700 3200 3400 3200 3200

Mechanical engineer 2100 2200 2300 2200 2400

Electrical engineer 2200 2200 2300 2200 2500

Property valuer 1200 900 800 900 1300

Construction manager 2000 2200 2200 2200 2300

Construction project manager 2000 2200 2200 2200 2300

Landscape architect 1000 800 700 800 1200

Total 20500 20200 20300 20500 23500

Source: CBE 2008b

Low scenario projections suggest that demand for most professionals will stay close tocurrent levels with fluctuations resulting 20 30% increase over the period.

Conclusions

As noted above, when the initial forecasts were done for the CBE, South Africa was experiencing amassive boom in the built environment due largely to the onset of the mega-projects. This boom was


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built on a sustained growth phase in the built environment that had been maintained for the pastseven years. The key drivers of this boom included

6:

i. positive growth in the world economy (annual rates of between 5-6% during the mid-2000s),ii. the longest commodity boom in the past fifty years,iii. growth of a new (black) middle class,iv. a recognition by public sector and public corporation decision-makers that we have been

under-investing in our infrastructure stock and, finally,v. the fact that the country had the resources to make these investments.

Since September 2008, it is no longer possible to assume that the above drivers will berestored (Nedbank 2009). It would not be necessary to discuss in detail the impact of these driversfailing since the scenarios anticipated such a change in circumstance (see CBE 2008b). In the coldlight of day, since the world economy has gone into a major recession, it is much easier to accept thelow growth scenario than it was previously.

However for policy makers, it is necessary that they make use of findings such as these toanticipate both possible futures. Although it is unlikely that we will see a resumption of growth in thenear future, instead of ignoring the problem, they should be putting in place the appropriate actionsand interventions to ensure that the country has the professional (and other) skills it requires whenthe growth trajectory is restored (see recommendations in CBE 2008b). Even though this may takelonger than the political and professional lives of many in Government, they should take advantage ofthe respite provided by the current recession to ensure that when infrastructure growth again

resumes there will be people with the necessary skills to ensure that it is built and maintainedproperly.

References

CBE (2008a) Skills Audit (Demand Side), for the Council for the Built Environment (CBE)CBE (2008b) Skills Audit (Demand Side), for the Council for the Built Environment (CBE)Hausmann, R et al (2008) Final recommendations of the International Panel on Growth, Harvard,

Centre for International Development, Working PaperIDC (2007) Overview of recent trends in the Economy, Industrial Development Corporation,

September 2007.Langenhoven, H (2007)Long Term Scenarios for Construction; SAFCEC28 June 2007Lawless, A. (2005) Numbers and Needs Addressing the imbalances in the civil engineering

profession, SAICELawless, A. (2008) Numbers and Needs in Local Government, SAICEMbuthia, G (2009)Merrifield, A The performance and capacity of the formal construction industry in the 1990's (National

Housing Forum 1994)Merrifield, A et al Creating an enabling environment for Reconstruction, Growth and Development in

the Construction Industry(DPW Green Paper 1997),Merrifield, A The role of the construction industry in the delivery of infrastructure in South Africa,

chapter in Khosa, M, Infrastructure Mandate for Change, 1994-1999(HSRC Press 1999),Merrifield, A (2006) Demand for skills an analysis of the proposed infrastructure spending

programme, CIDB, PretoriaMerrifield, A et al (2006) Increasing the supply of Engineers and Built Environment Professionals,

Technologists and Technicians A JIPSA Proposal(JIPSA 2006)

Merrifield, A (2009) An analysis of the skills requirements in the electricity value-chain, for theEmployment Promotion Project, Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape TownNACI (2003) The Potential Impact of Skills Shortages on the Innovative Capacity of Major Capital

Engineering Projects, Discussion Document, October 2003, National Advisory Council onInnovation and Department of Science and Technology

Nedbank (2008) Capital Expenditure Project Listing 1 January 1993 to 30 June 2008, 25th

August2008

6These trends are discussed much more fully in CBE 2008b.


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Nedbank (2009) Capital Expenditure Project Listing 1 January 1993 to 30 June 2008, 31st

December2008, Ist April 2009

SARB 2008 South African Reserve Bank, Quarterly Report, 4th

Quarter, March 2009Sudeo IBC (2007) Draft Research Report for the Infrastructure Inputs Sector Strategy, PCAS

PresidencyTSAPRO(2008) The South African Power Project, McKinsey

FORECASTING PROFESSIONAL SKILLS IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT

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