Forecasting

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Forecasting MBA/510

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Forecasting. MBA/510. Objectives. Describe the use of time series analysis and forecasting in making business decisions Apply time series analysis and forecasting. Much like Forecasting Weather. Persistence Method today equals tomorrow. Trends and other methods. Climatology Analogue - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Forecasting

Page 1: Forecasting

ForecastingMBA/510

Page 2: Forecasting

Objectives

• Describe the use of time series analysis and forecasting in making business decisions

• Apply time series analysis and forecasting

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Much like Forecasting Weather

Persistence Method • today equals tomorrow

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Trends and other methods

• Climatology

• Analogue

• Numerical weatherprediction

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Much like forecasting …

Average Absorption Time

3.6 5.8

34.6

0

10

20

30

40

Droplet size (microns)

Seco

nds

267 576 1562

0 5 10 15 20 25

C

B

A

Vapor Hazard Duration (worst case)

GRASS

CONCRETE

ASSETS

(Hours)

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What we Now Expect

20 HOURS7 HOURS12 MIN – 4 HOURS

NON-POROUS MATERIALS

8 HOURS7 HOURS8 MIN- 3 HOURSGRASS OR SAND

7 HOURS50 MIN8-50 MINCONCRETE OR ASPHALTC

16 HOURS5 HOURS12 MIN – 5 HOURSNON-POROUS MATERIALS

4 HOURS25 MIN8 MIN- 3 HOURSGRASS OR SAND

5 HOURS25 MIN8-50 MINCONCRETE OR ASPHALTB

10 HOURS4 HOURS12 MIN – 4 HOURS

NON-POROUS MATERIALS

3 HOURS25 MIN8 MIN- 3 HOURSGRASS OR SAND

4 HOURS50 MIN8-50 MINCONCRETE OR ASPHALTA

VAPOR HAZARD

(WORST CASE)

VAPOR HAZARD

(BEST CASE)

LIQUID HAZARD

SURFACEAGENT• Technical Review

• 40 Concrete and Asphalt

• 120 Painted Surfaces

• 55 Grass

• 10 Thickened Agent

• Recent live agent surface tests

•D****Test (1998 - 1999)

• C**** Tests (1999)

• N**** Test (1999)

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What about Business forecasting?

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Heban Lumber Mill (exercise 19.1)

• Plot the data on a chart.• Estimate the linear trend equation by

drawing a line through the data.• Estimate the earnings per share for

2004.

Earnings in dollars

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Heban Lumber Mill (exercise 19.1)

Sales went up $2.67 – $1.56, or $1.11 in 4 years(2001 –1997). Thus ($1.11 ÷ 4) = $0.2775 or $0.30

Y′=1.00+0.30tY′= a + btY′= 1.00 + bt

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Heban Lumber Mill (exercise 19.1)

The estimated earnings for 2004 are $3.10

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Norton Company (Exercise 19.3)

The quarterly sales for the Norton Company are given in millions of dollars for four years. Compute the quarterly seasonal index using the ratio-to-moving-average method.

Full Table

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Norton Company (Exercise 19.3)

Full Table

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Summary of MBA/510

• Secondary and primary research • Tools of data analysis • Levels of measurement• Sampling size & methods• Descriptive data & Probability• Normal distribution • Confidence intervals• Hypothesis & Testing Variables• ANOVA & F-distribution• Linear regression & Correlation analysis • Time series analysis & Forecasting


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