Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique

Université Catholique de Louvain

Roads : a proximate or

underlying cause of

deforestation ?

Marie Scouvart, Eric Lambin et al.

IIId LBA Conference, 27-29th July, Brasília Special Session 7 - Roads, land use and land cover changes in Brazilian Amazon

Summary

• Introduction : general context

• Theoretical perspectives on the role of roads

• Research design

• First preliminary results : cases outline

• Methodology

• Policy implications

General contextNearly 90% of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon between

1991 and 1997 occurred within 100 km from the five major road networks (Alves, 2002)

National demand for landHigh agricultural suitability of some forest areas

MigrationsPolicy decisions to extend the road network in those areas

Conversion of forest to agricultural land

Expansion of local logging or agricultural activities in some forest areas

Construction of new roadsNeed to link these active production areas to existing markets

Or

Construction of a road for reasons unrelated to land use in the forest

New deforestationSpatial redistribution of population and activities

Or

DeforestationAttraction to a given location of a preexisting demand for land

Or

Research questions and hypothesis

• 3 questions– are roads a proximate or underlying cause of deforestation ?– do roads mostly affect rates or location of deforestation ?– are roads endogenous or exogenous factors of deforestation ?

• Main hypothesisin most cases, roads are only a spatial determinant of deforestation at the proximate level. The quantity of deforestation is mostly determined by macro-economic factors, national policies and/or patterns of migration at the national scale.

• Objectiveunderstand the role of road development on deforestation and livelihoods under different natural and socio-economic conditions to improve scenarios of future forest-cover change

Roads are catalysts of deforestation

Research design

• Comparative analysis of local case studies– identify the factors that control the impact of roads on deforestation

– exploit in a comparative framework the knowledge acquired through local scale case studies

• Case studies selection– based on available literature and active research teams

– cover the full range of impacts of roads on deforestation

• Data collection– published case studies

– formal expert consultation• qualitative information, expert judgement• quantitative data

– fieldwork • key actors, institutions, etc.

Source : ISA, 2000

ALTAMIRA - PA

E. Moran, E. Brondizio, R.T. Adams, T. Evans [Indiana University]

URUARÁ - PA

R. Walker, M. Caldas, S. Aldrich, E. Arima [Michigan State University]

P. Pacheco [Clark University / Cifor / IPAM]

A. Venturieri [Embrapa Amazônia Oriental]SÃO FÉLIX - PAB. Mertens [Cifor]

R. Poccard-Chapuis, M.-G. Piketty [Cirad]

PARAGOMINAS - PA

C. de Souza [Imazon]

REDENÇÃO - PA

MARABÁ - PAGUARANTÃ DO NORTE - MT

V. Nédélec [Université Rennes 2]

OURO PRETO DO OESTE - ROV. Dale [Oak Ridge National Laboratory]

M. Pedlowski [Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminese]

Local support : L. Ventura dos Santos [APA]

BRASILÉIA - ACLocal support: E.A. Borges, M.C. Rocha da Silva, P.S. Braña Muniz [Pesacre]

First preliminary results : cases outline

Ouro Preto do Oeste – RO BR-364, built in 1960-65, paved in 1984, in good general state

Good soils

National colonization programs, massive immigration of colons from the South

History of occupation before the official colonization : e.a. rubber cycles

Significant role of the MST

Brasiléia – AC BR-317, built in 1958, paved in 2002, in very good general state

Relatively good soils and flat topography, favourable to ranching activities

History : Acrean Revolution and old history of occupation by traditional communities (seringueiros), resistance to the colonization model

Tradition of environmental conservation, influencing political decision process

Border area, project of the “Road to the Pacific”

Guarantã do Norte – MT BR-163, built in 1973-74, paved in 2000-04, in relatively good general state

Area of private colonization

Economic development of the city due to its “end of the road” position

Land tenure system stabilized, area with few land tenure conflicts

Altamira / Uruará – PA BR-230, built in 1970-74, not paved, in bad general state

Area of INCRA planned colonization schemes

Relatively few occupation before the official colonization

Consolidated frontier (old frontier)

São Félix – PA PA-279, built in 1986-92, not paved, in good general state

Road development by the state government following local development of activities

Impact of the gold extraction

Mixed frontier, land speculation and conflicts

‘Small-N’ case study « case-oriented » deep knowledge of each case no quantitative measures

N

Qlit

Qualitative

Very small N

Quantitative

Very large N abstraction of individual cases

« variable-oriented » covariance patterns statistical analyses

Methodology

• Qualitative Comparative Analysis - QCA (Ragin, 1987)

– recent approach and technique for comparing in a systematic way a limited number of cases (‘small-N’)

– via media between traditional quantitative and qualitative approaches

Methodology (2)

• Why choose QCA ?

– interpretation and limited generalization

• ‘ Small-N ’

– complexity of causal relationships

• « multiple conjunctural causation » (and / or)

– controlled observation (quasi-experimental research design)

– combines holistic and analytic approaches

• cases as configurations of conditions

– parsimony

• reduces complexity by highlighting causal regularities

– replicability

Implementation of QCA

• N = 15 to 20 cases

• Variables– outcome (dependent variable) : high / low deforestation along the road

– potential explanatory conditions (independent variables) : « macro-variables »

• state and age of the road infrastructure

• initial conditions

• local ecological conditions - e.a. soil quality, topography, rainfall, forest type

• local socio-economic conditions - e.a. urban development, population density, markets

• local institutional factors - e.a. protected areas, land tenure system

• local political factors - e.a. local conservation and development policies

• national political context - e.a. incentives, colonization, development programs

• national economic context - e.a. conditions on national markets, inflation

• international economic / political context - e.a. conditions on global markets (soybeans, wood), conventions on the environment (e.g.

Kyoto)

Implementation of QCA (2)

• Expected results

– « minimal equations » : main factors controlling the impacts of roads

– typology of cases interpretation and link with theory

• Difficulties

– dichotomization of variables

– number of potential expanatory conditions macro-variables

– static approach time periods (temporal interpretation, more cases)

• Perspectives

– QCA (binary variables) and Multi-Value QCA (categorical variables)

– application of logistic regression techniques to Small-N conditions

– introduction of cases outside the Brazilian Amazon (Peru and Ecuador)

Policy implications

• Context

– Avança Brasil : e.a. near doubling of paved roads

– alarming predictions : 28 to 42% of the region deforested or heavily

degraded following current development plans and land use trends

(Laurance et al., 2001)

• Guide the implementation of relevant development and conservation policies :

is it better to intensify roads in already settled areas, or to expand the

road network to primary forest areas in order to make them accessible ?

Any questions

comments ?

or

Collaborations

Research teams

Altamira PA Indiana University

Michigan State University

Clark University / Cifor / IPAM

Embrapa Amazônia Oriental

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminese

APA (local support)

Pesacre (local support)

Université Rennes 2

Cifor / Cirad

Imazon (?)

Redenção PA Transamazonia network (?)

Marabá PA GEOMA Project (?)

Equateur - Transamazonia network - Ecuador

PA

Ouro Preto do Oeste RO

Study sites

Uruará PA

Brasiléia AC

São Félix