Analysis.Answers.

Analysis. Answers

Beacon Economics, LLC!

The Economic Outlook Focus on the State and Nation

April 2016

Analysis.Answers.

WordoftheDay

Miserabilism

Morrissey LouisCK WallStreet

Thephilosophyofpessimism–or–Tryingreallyhardtoconvinceeveryonethatthings

arereallybadwhen,inreality,theyaren’t.

Analysis.Answers.

TheWrongQuestion

3

Analysis.Answers.

TheRightAnswer•  USEconomyS;llMovingAlong

–  2015:BeDerthanitlooked–  Labormarketsstrong–  Forgettheturmoil:thereisnobubble–  Housings;llinrecoverymode–  Creditexpandingonmanylevels–  Commoditypricesaredown–  Californiaisleading,notlaggingthena;on

•  Issues?Sure…–  StateandLocalBudgetss;llstressed–  Thedrought–  Globaleconomy—par;cularlyAsia–  BadFinancialRegula;ons–  LocalHousingshortage–  Pensions/En;tlements–  GrowingInequality/Poli;calGridlock

4

Analysis.Answers.

2015:Betterthatitlooks

5

2013 2014 2015 GDP 1.50 2.40 2.40 Final Demand 1.24 2.53 2.86

Consumption 1.16 1.84 2.09 Goods 0.71 0.75 0.83 Services 0.45 1.09 1.26 Investment 0.70 0.87 0.82 Structures 0.04 0.23 -0.05 Equipment 0.19 0.34 0.18 Intellectual property 0.15 0.20 0.23 Residential 0.27 0.05 0.28 Change inventories 0.06 0.05 0.18 Net exports 0.20 -0.18 -0.64 Exports 0.38 0.46 0.15 Imports -0.18 -0.63 -0.79 Government -0.58 -0.11 0.13 Federal -0.46 -0.18 -0.02 State and local -0.12 0.07 0.15

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2013I II III

IV

2014I II III

IV

2015I II III

IV

2016I

Grossdomes=cproduct

Analysis.Answers.

ConsumerSpending

6

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

17000

18000

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

AnnualAutoLightTruckSales

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Jan-10

Aug-10

Mar-11

Oct-11

May-12

Dec-12

Jul-1

3

Feb-14

Sep-14

Apr-15

Nov-15

RealConsumerSpending(Feb,Y-o-YGrowth)

Goods Services

Analysis.Answers.

EmploymentGrowth

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

ChangeinPayrolls

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Y-o-YGrowthRealDPI

Analysis.Answers.

ParticipationandUnemployment

8

3.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10.011.012.013.014.015.0

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-1

3Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-1

4Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-1

5Oct-15

Jan-16

UnemploymentRates

U6 Headline

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

65.0%

66.0%

67.0%

68.0%

Jan-80

Feb-83

Mar-86

Apr-89

May-92

Jun-95

Jul-9

8Au

g-01

Sep-04

Oct-07

Nov-10

Dec-13

Par=cipa=onRate

Analysis.Answers.

ConsumerCredit

9

$4.0$5.0$6.0$7.0$8.0$9.0$10.0$11.0$12.0$13.0$14.0

03:Q1

04:Q1

05:Q1

06:Q1

07:Q1

08:Q1

09:Q1

10:Q1

11:Q1

12:Q1

13:Q1

14:Q1

15:Q1

OutstandingConsumerCredit($Trillions)

Mortgage HERevolving AutoLoan

CreditCard StudentLoan Other

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

1980Q1

1982Q2

1984Q3

1986Q4

1989Q1

1991Q2

1993Q3

1995Q4

1998Q1

2000Q2

2002Q3

2004Q4

2007Q1

2009Q2

2011Q3

2013Q4

DebtServicingasShareDPI

FOB DSR

Analysis.Answers.

ConsumerCredit

10

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

99:Q2

01:Q2

03:Q2

05:Q2

07:Q2

09:Q2

11:Q2

13:Q2

15:Q2

CreditScoreatOrigina=on:Mortgages

Median 25thpercen;le 10thpercen;le

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

03:Q1

04:Q1

05:Q1

06:Q1

07:Q1

08:Q1

09:Q1

10:Q1

11:Q1

12:Q1

13:Q1

14:Q1

15:Q1

SeriousDelinquencyRate(90day+)

MORTGAGE HELOC AUTO CC

Analysis.Answers.

ExistingHomeSales

11

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

Jan-99

Aug-00

Mar-02

Oct-03

May-05

Dec-06

Jul-0

8Feb-10

Sep-11

Apr-13

Nov-14

HomeSales2014 2015

OR-Portland 7.2% 11.8% WA-Seattle 6.8% 10.8% CA-San Francisco 7.8% 10.5% CO-Denver 8.4% 10.2% TX-Dallas 8.1% 9.2% FL-Tampa 5.7% 7.4% MI-Detroit 3.1% 7.2% CA-Los Angeles 5.5% 6.9% CA-San Diego 5.0% 6.9% FL-Miami 8.3% 6.8% AZ-Phoenix 2.5% 6.1% NV-Las Vegas 5.9% 6.0% GA-Atlanta 4.9% 5.7% National-US 4.3% 5.4%

Case-ShillerRegionalHPIs

Analysis.Answers.

AffordabilityandConstruction

12

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Jan-01

May-02

Sep-03

Jan-05

May-06

Sep-07

Jan-09

May-10

Sep-11

Jan-13

May-14

Sep-15

HousingStartsSAAR

Single Mul;

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

Jan-92

Jan-94

Jan-96

Jan-98

Jan-00

Jan-02

Jan-04

Jan-06

Jan-08

Jan-10

Jan-12

Jan-14

USHousingAffordability

Analysis.Answers.

ImprovedOutlook

13

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

May-02

May-03

May-04

May-05

May-06

May-07

May-08

May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

ChangeinHouseholds(2yearSmoothed)

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

Q1-97

Q2-98

Q3-99

Q4-00

Q1-02

Q2-03

Q3-04

Q4-05

Q1-07

Q2-08

Q3-09

Q4-10

Q1-12

Q2-13

Q3-14

YearRoundVacantas%ofHousingStocktoQ3(CensusHVS)

Analysis.Answers.

Production

14

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan-04

Feb-05

Mar-06

Apr-07

May-08

Jun-09

Jul-1

0Au

g-11

Sep-12

Oct-13

Nov-14

Dec-15

IndustrialProduc=onIndexes

Total Manufacturing

2015 Mar.'15

Propor=on to Mar.'16

Totalindustry 100 -2

Energy 21.5 -9.6Consumerproducts 3.4 -8.6Oilandgaswelldrilling 0.4 -55.4Primaryenergy 10.8 -11.6

Non-energy 78.5 0.2Selectedhigh-technology 2.7 2.1Motorvehiclesandparts 5.9 5Consumergoods 20.9 0.3Businessequipment 9.7 -1.4Construc=onsupplies 5.1 1.5Businesssupplies 6.9 0.7Materials 25.1 -0.9

Analysis.Answers.

Trade

15

Exports Imports Bal. Total -104.4 -87.3 -17.1

Canada -28.8 -45.8 17 Netherlands -2.8 -3.9 1.1 Belgium -0.6 -1.2 0.6 India 0.3 -0.1 0.4 Germany 0.2 0.3 -0.1 Taiwan -0.5 0.1 -0.6 Japan -3.5 -2.7 -0.8 France -1.1 0.6 -1.7 UK 2.8 4.5 -1.7 Italy -0.9 1.7 -2.6 Korea, South -0.6 2.8 -3.4 Mexico -3.6 1.3 -4.9 Brazil -10 -2.3 -7.7 China -5.7 17.8 -23.5

ChangeinNominalGoodsTrade2014to2015

17001800190020002100220023002400250026002700

RealImportsandExports

Exports Imports

Analysis.Answers.

OilActivity

16

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Feb-96

Oct-97

Jun-99

Feb-01

Oct-02

Jun-04

Feb-06

Oct-07

Jun-09

Feb-11

Oct-12

Jun-14

RealPrice:GallonGasoline

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

220000

240000

260000

280000

300000

Jan-2008

Sep-2008

May-2009

Jan-2010

Sep-2010

May-2011

Jan-2012

Sep-2012

May-2013

Jan-2014

Sep-2014

May-2015

Jan-2016

USMonthlyOilProduc=on

Analysis.Answers.

MiningandManufacturing:IP

17

-70.0%

-50.0%

-30.0%

-10.0%

10.0%

30.0%

50.0%

70.0%

Jan-73

Jan-76

Jan-79

Jan-82

Jan-85

Jan-88

Jan-91

Jan-94

Jan-97

Jan-00

Jan-03

Jan-06

Jan-09

Jan-12

Jan-15

Y-o-YChangeOilExplora=on

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0

130.0

135.0

140.0

Jan

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

TotalEmploymentIndexes:2005=100

ND OK Texas Dallas Houston

Analysis.Answers.

CaliforniafactversusOiction

18

California Hype:!§  High taxes, Over regulated"§  People/business fleeing"

Reality"§  State still outperforming"§  Certain industries more vulnerable than

others, but others doing great"§  Real enemy: CEQA, dumb taxes"

“Lookingbackafewyears(2009/2010)everyonewassayingthatCAwouldfaillikeGreeceorDetroit,butthingslookdifferentnow.What

hashappenedtoturnthingsaround?”

Analysis.Answers.

RegionalGrowth

19

Analysis.Answers.

2015JobGrowth(ChGrfrom14)

20

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Jan-95

Aug-96

Mar-98

Oct-99

May-01

Dec-02

Jul-0

4Feb-06

Sep-07

Apr-09

Nov-10

Jun-12

Jan-14

IndexPayrollEmployment

California BalanceUS

State Ch %GrIdaho 26.4 4.0% 1Utah 44.5 3.3% 2Oregon 55.3 3.1% 3Tennessee 89.3 3.1% 4Washington 96.5 3.1% 5Florida 243.2 3.0% 6Arizona 77.5 3.0% 7California 451.6 2.8% 8Georgia 116 2.7% 9Virginia 96.5 2.5% 10

Michigan 90.8 2.2% 17Texas 170.9 1.4% 29NewYork 130.3 1.4% 31Kansas -5.4 -0.4% 46NorthDakota -22.7 -4.9% 51

Analysis.Answers.

Whatkind?

21

Feb-16 Chg Gr.

TotalNonfarm 16,310.0 451.6 2.8%

HealthCare 2,157.3 84.6 4.1%

Accommoda;on 1,584.5 64.6 4.3%

Construc;on 760.7 53.8 7.6%

ProfSciTech 1,228.3 40.6 3.4%

RetailTrade 1,682.6 31.5 1.9%

LocalGov 1,721.8 27.4 1.6%

AdminSupport 1,065.2 22.3 2.1%

Informa;on 499.0 22 4.6%

Logis;cs 561.9 21.8 4.0%

Feb-16 Chg Gr.Educa;on 359.4 18.1 5.3%Entertainment 301.1 17.3 6.1%WholesaleTrade 731.5 17 2.4%OtherServices 551.9 11.4 2.1%StateGov 514.2 9.9 2.0%RealEstate 273.2 4.7 1.8%Management 232.4 3.9 1.7%Finance 525.4 3.5 0.7%FederalGov 245.5 2.3 0.9%DurableManu 808.2 0.8 0.1%Non-DurableMa 478.4 -3.2 -0.7%

Analysis.Answers.

GrowingInequality

22

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Inde

x(1=PerfectIn

equa

lity)

GiniIndex(Inequality)

BasedonBefore-TaxIncome BasedonAner-TaxIncome

AnerTaxesandTransfers

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

USHoldingsofWealth

Top10% EveryoneElse

Top1%own40%to50%ofallwealthintheworld

Analysis.Answers.

TheMinimumWageDebateDebacle•  TheWorkingPoorProblem

–  GreatRecession,taxpolicies,technologicalchange

–  Californiaisworsebecauseofhousing,immigra;on

•  Thereality:minimumwagesdon’thelp

–  Only$1outof$4inincreasedpayrollcostsgotoneedyhouseholds

–  Smallemploymenteffectsbutmainlyhitmostatriskworkers

–  Increaseincostshitsthoseonfixedincomes

•  TherearebeDerwaystohandle–  Modeststatelevelruleswithexplicit

exemp;ons/regionalvariances–  BeDeryet-EITC,Pre-K,housingsupports—but

thesecostmoney

MedianRentPaid

MedianFull-TimeHourly

Earnings SantaClara $1,787 $34.40 SanFrancisco $1,587 $34.10 SanMateo $1,793 $29.70 ContraCosta $1,443 $29.50 Alameda $1,391 $27.30 Orange $1,572 $23.60 SanDiego $1,373 $23.30 Sonoma $1,374 $23.20 Sacramento $1,017 $20.10 LosAngeles $1,239 $19.00 SanBernardino $1,125 $18.90 Riverside $1,196 $18.60 SantaBarbara $1,395 $18.40 Kern $870 $17.20 Monterey $1,233 $15.60 Fresno $891 $15.60 Tulare $829 $15.10

Analysis.Answers.

What?Where?

24

Feb-16 Ch # UnRt Ch

California 16,3102.8%

451.6 5.5%-1.2%

SanFrancisco 1,0764.0% 41.4 3.1%-0.6%

SantaCruz 1003.8% 3.7 7.1%-0.9%

Stockton 2233.8% 8.1 8.1%-1.2%

Salinas 1353.7% 4.8 7.7%-0.8%

SanJose 1,0633.6% 37.4 3.8%-0.7%

Vallejo 1353.4% 4.4 5.4%-1.1%

InlandEmpire 1,3703.3% 44.1 5.8%-1.2%

Modesto 1693.2% 5.2 8.6%-1.4%

Visalia 1203.0% 3.5 10.9%-1.1%

Sacramento 9292.8% 25.3 5.2%-1.0%

Feb-16 Ch # UnRt Ch

SanDiego 1,407 2.8% 37.8 4.6% -0.9%

SLO 116 2.7% 3.1 4.2% -0.7%

Fresno 328 2.7% 8.6 9.4% -1.2%

EastBay 1,111 2.7% 29.0 4.3% -0.8%

SantaRosa 200 2.7% 5.2 4.0% -0.8%

OrangeCnty 1,565 2.7% 40.6 4.0% -0.8%

LosAngeles 4,338 2.4%100.4 5.6% -2.2%

SantaBarbara 183 2.3% 4.1 5.0% -0.5%

Chico 78 1.8% 1.4 6.7% -0.8%

Bakersfield 261 1.2% 3.0 9.8% -0.3%

Ventura 297 1.0% 3.0 5.1% -0.8%

Analysis.Answers.

L.A.CountyIndustries

25

Industry Feb-16(000s) YoYChg(%)TotalNonfarm 4,338.1 2.4TotalPrivate 3,767.7 2.5Construc;on 129.1 4.9Educa;on/Health 767.5 4.8Informa;on 211.4 4.4LeisureandHospitality 499.5 4.0RealEstate 81.6 3.6Transport,Warehouse,U;l. 171.8 3.6ProfSciandTech 283.5 3.5NR/Mining 3.7 2.9Management 59.8 2.6RetailTrade 426.3 1.7OtherServices 152.8 1.4Government 570.4 1.3FinanceandInsurance 135.1 0.7AdminSupport 265.5 0.7WholesaleTrade 226.1 0.3Farm 4.9 -0.5Manufacturing 354.2 -2.4

50,000

52,000

54,000

56,000

58,000

60,000

62,000

64,000

AverageAnnualWages

LosAngeles California

Analysis.Answers.

StateOutput:Q314toQ315US CA Diff

All industry total 2.0% 3.5% 1.4%

Agriculture 11.1% 25.5% 14.5% Professional 4.6% 9.0% 4.4% Construction 6.0% 9.9% 3.9% Wholesale 0.9% 4.0% 3.1% Management 3.7% 6.5% 2.8% Accommodation 1.2% 3.5% 2.3% Information 6.6% 8.8% 2.3% Administrative 4.3% 5.9% 1.7% Real estate 1.5% 2.7% 1.2% Retail trade 3.9% 5.1% 1.2% Health care 3.6% 4.4% 0.8% Transportation -2.3% -1.7% 0.6%

Other services 0.3% 0.1% -0.2% Government -0.2% -0.7% -0.5% Durable goods 0.0% -0.6% -0.6% Finance -1.1% -2.7% -1.6% Nondurable goods 3.0% 0.0% -3.1%

95

100

105

110

115

120

2005Q1

2006Q2

2007Q3

2008Q4

2010Q1

2011Q2

2012Q3

2013Q4

2015Q1

OutputIndexes

UnitedStates California

Analysis.Answers.

PublicSector

27

1,850,000

1,900,000

1,950,000

2,000,000

2,050,000

2,100,000

2,150,000

2,200,000

2,250,000

2,300,000

Jan-00

Sep-01

May-03

Jan-05

Sep-06

May-08

Jan-10

Sep-11

May-13

Jan-15

StateandLocalEmployment

240000

245000

250000

255000

260000

265000

270000

2005Q1

2006Q1

2007Q1

2008Q1

2009Q1

2010Q1

2011Q1

2012Q1

2013Q1

2014Q1

2015Q1

CAStateRealGovtOutput

Analysis.Answers.

Incometaxdrivingtheshow

28

SalesTaxRateDecline

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1995-96=100

Index

PIT CORP SALES

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

1972I III

1979I III

1986I III

1993I III

2000I III

2007I III

2014I

State&LocalGov.CapitalInvestmentsas%Revenues

Net

Analysis.Answers.

AgandtheDrought

29

300,000

320,000

340,000

360,000

380,000

400,000

420,000

440,000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

TotalCAFarmEmployment

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1998Q1

1999Q2

2000Q3

2001Q4

2003Q1

2004Q2

2005Q3

2006Q4

2008Q1

2009Q2

2010Q3

2011Q4

2013Q1

2014Q2

2015Q3

TotalCAFarmEarnings($Bil)

Analysis.Answers.

LookingCloser

30

Value($000) ShareAcres(000)

Total $53,492,081

Hay $1,737,024 3.2% 1,375

Output(Tons)

HayGrown 7,388,000

HayExported 1,939,668 0.9%

WaterUsed(000AcreFeet)

TotalAg 40,000

TotalHay 6,875 17.2%

TotalExport 1,805 4.5%

500700900

1,1001,3001,5001,7001,9002,1002,3002,500

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Thou

sand

s

HayExports(Tons)

Analysis.Answers. 31

HomesandWorkers

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Jan-94

Jun-96

Nov-98

Apr-01

Sep-03

Feb-06

Jul-0

8

Dec-10

May-13

WorkforceTrends

Payroll LaborForce

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Jan-02

Apr-03

Jul-0

4Oct-05

Jan-07

Apr-08

Jul-0

9Oct-10

Jan-12

Apr-13

Jul-1

4

MedianHomePrices

SouthernCalifornia BayArea US

Analysis.Answers.

LosAngelesCountyRealEstate

32

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Q1-01

Q3-02

Q1-04

Q3-05

Q1-07

Q3-08

Q1-10

Q3-11

Q1-13

Q3-14

Med

ianPrice($000s,SA)

Trad

i=on

alSales(0

00s,SA)

Res.RealEstatePricesandTradi=onalSales

Tradi;onalSales Price

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Q1-05

Q1-06

Q1-07

Q1-08

Q1-09

Q1-10

Q1-11

Q1-12

Q1-13

Q1-14

Q1-15

Percen

t,NSA

ApartmentVacancyRate

InlandEmpire LosAngelesCounty

OrangeCounty SanDiegoCounty

Analysis.Answers.

Bubble?No…

33

%OverCrowded %Vacant

Hawaii 8.6% Utah 5.1%

California 8.2% Minnesota 5.2%

Alaska 6.5% California 5.3%

NewYork 5.0% Vermont 5.4%

Texas 4.8% Colorado 5.5%

Arizona 4.5% MassachuseDs 5.6%

Nevada 4.2% NewHampshire 5.6%

NewMexico 3.6% Wisconsin 5.8%

DistrictofColumbia 3.3% Oregon 6.0%

Utah 3.3% Washington 6.4%

Oregon 3.3% Idaho 6.4%

Washington 3.1% Delaware 6.9%

Florida 3.0% Maine 7.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

Jan-93

Aug-95

Mar-98

Oct-00

May-03

Dec-05

Jul-0

8Feb-11

Sep-13

CAHousingAffordability

Analysis.Answers.

WhytheShortage?

CEQA

34

Prop-13Under $25,000 -192,061 $25,000 to $50,000 -58,600 $50,000 to $99,999 18,955 Over $100,000 2,619 Total -229,087

TotalDomes;cNetMigra;onbyIncome08-13

Texas Under $25,000 -40070 $25,000 to $50,000 -23741 $50,000 to $99,999 -3433 Over $100,000 599

Analysis.Answers.

PaceofConstruction

35

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Jan-95

Jul-9

6Jan-98

Jul-9

9Jan-01

Jul-0

2Jan-04

Jul-0

5Jan-07

Jul-0

8Jan-10

Jul-1

1Jan-13

Jul-1

4

CaliforniaPermits

Single-Family Mul;-Family

California 4.1 Tulare 4.0Ventura 6.8 LosAngeles 4.0ContraCosta 6.6 Fresno 4.0Sonoma 6.1 SanMateo 3.4Alameda 5.9 Kern 3.0SantaBarbara 5.3 SantaClara 3.0

SanBernardino 5.0 Orange 2.8Solano 4.6 Placer 2.1Riverside 4.5 SanFrancisco 2.1SanDiego 4.2 Sacramento 0.7

NewPop/Permits

Analysis.Answers. 36

Economic&RevenueForecastingRegionalIntelligenceReportsBusiness&MarketAnalysisRealEstateMarketAnalysisPorts&InfrastructureAnalysisEconomicImpactAnalysisPublicPolicyAnalysis

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