Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris...
-
date post
21-Dec-2015 -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
0
Transcript of Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris...
![Page 1: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing
Scenarios
Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White, Bruce Kendall, Steve Gaines
UC Santa Barbara
![Page 2: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
What is F3?
• Flow – how are fish populations connected? – Resource Connectivity
• Fish – heterogeneity of stock growth & recruitment – Dynamic Externality and Spatial Heterogeneity
• Fishing – spatial harvesting, economic objectives, distributional impacts over time – Economic Optimality
![Page 3: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Focus on Larval Connectivity
![Page 4: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Flow
Fish
Settlement
HabitatRecruitment
Harvest
RegulationFisherm
en
Market INFO
Climate
Flow
Fish
Settlement
Recruitment
Flow
Fish
Settlement
HabitatRecruitment
Harvest
RegulationFisherm
en
INFO
![Page 5: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
The F3 Approach
• Circulation & Larval Transport – time / space scales of
larval transport & their settlement
• Stock / Harvest Dynamics – implications of uncertainty
on fish stocks, yields & profits
• Fleet Dynamics – How do fishermen choose when,
where & how to fish?
• Value of Information – How does amount & quality of
data available inform the management process?
![Page 6: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Constructing Fishery Scenarios
• Build fishing scenarios for SoCal Bight
• Goal: optimal spatial management of a stock given complete information
• Pieces – Domain– Stock demographics– Connectivity – Harvest strategy
• Optimizing it is hard – see the next talk…
![Page 7: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Southern California Bight
![Page 8: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Southern California Bight
48 patches
-121.5 -121 -120.5 -120 -119.5 -119 -118.5
33.5
34
34.5
35
35.5
36
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
![Page 9: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Stock / Harvest Modeling
Next generation stocks =
survivors - harvest + new recruits
SURVIVORS are surviving adults from previous time
HARVEST are those extracted from the fishery
NEW RECRUITS are a function of fecundity of the
survivors, larval dispersal & mortality, settlement &
recruitment to adult stages
![Page 10: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Stock = Kelp Bass• Adults are nearly sedentary
– Mature at 3 years
• Settlement, recruitment & survivability– Multi-year analysis of larval settlement & survey
observations by W. White & J. Caselle [in review]– Intra-cohort density dependence on recruitment with a
positive association with kelp density – Annual adult survival = f(adult density)
• Larval connectivity via passive dispersal– Settlement window = 26 to 36 days– Spawning season = May-September– Larvae are found near the sea surface
![Page 11: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Kelp Cover Distribution
Multiyear Kelp Cover from Cal F&G
% cover for each patch
![Page 12: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Lagrangian Particle Trajectories
Velocity fields from Oey et al. [2003] data assimilation product
Quality good where/when there are data available
![Page 13: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Connectivity MatrixS
our
ce P
atc
he
s (j
)
Destination Patches (i)
Self Settlement Line
Hydrodynamic Connectivity only!!!
Catalina Island
![Page 14: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Role of Larval Life History
PLD = 18 d PLD = 72 d
• PLD alters connectivity (no one pattern holds)• Shorter PLD’s show more self-settlement
Sou
rce
Pat
ches
(j)
Destination Patches (i) Destination Patches (i)
![Page 15: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Interannual Variation in Connectivity
19941998
Sou
rce
Pat
ches
(j)
Destination Patches (i) Destination Patches (i)
• Hydrodynamic connectivity differs year by year in both strength and location
![Page 16: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Let’s make some scenarios…• Focus on long term assessment of fishing
yields
– Use long-time mean connectivity & kelp distributions
• Assume a fishing policy
Let TAC = c [Stock] where value of c achieves maximum yield
Spatial allocation by ideal free distribution
Assumes complete knowledge of system
![Page 17: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
-121.5 -121 -120.5 -120 -119.5 -119 -118.5
33.5
34
34.5
35
35.5
36
Biomass for Optimal Yield Case
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
x 105
• Highest biomass corresponds to kelp density via recruitment success – though not always
San Miguel Is
Pt Sal
Naples
Biomass Distribution
![Page 18: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
-121.5 -121 -120.5 -120 -119.5 -119 -118.5
33.5
34
34.5
35
35.5
36
Optimal Yield
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10x 10
5
San Miguel Is
Spatial Harvest Yield
![Page 19: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
recruitment
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
hydrodynamic connectivity
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
Hydrodynamic vs. Realized Connectivity
• Realized connectivity couples hydrodynamics, larval production & habitat factors
Sou
rce
Pat
ches
(j)
Destination Patches (i) Destination Patches (i)
Flow Only Includes Production & Habitat
![Page 20: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
-121.5 -121 -120.5 -120 -119.5 -119 -118.5
33.5
34
34.5
35
35.5
36
Closures
Impose Spatial Closures
Close 20% sites semi-randomly
![Page 21: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
-121.5 -121 -120.5 -120 -119.5 -119 -118.5
33.5
34
34.5
35
35.5
36
Optimal Yield with MPA
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
x 105Spatial Harvest Yield
• Yield scenarios can be used for impact assessments
Close 20% sites semi-randomly
![Page 22: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.40
1
2
3
4
5
6
7x 10
4
Yie
ld
Ho
with closures
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.40
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10x 10
5
Abu
ndan
ce
Ho
with closures
Reg
iona
lA
bund
ance
Reg
iona
lY
ield
Harvest Fraction
20% locations closed
no closures
20% locations closed
no closures
![Page 23: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4-2
0
2
4
6
8
10x 10
5
Abu
ndan
ce
Ho
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8x 10
4
Yie
ld
Ho
Reg
iona
lA
bund
ance
Reg
iona
lY
ield
Harvest Fraction
Black – no closures Red – previous caseGreen – 20 random closures
![Page 24: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Conclusions• Constructed fishing scenarios for SoCal Bight
Link hydrodynamics & fish biology with management
Couples to the Ocean Observatory Initiative
• Modest spatial closures with management outside often lead to increased fishery yields
Heterogeneity in connectivity & demographics leads to increased productivity & yields
Not optimal economic sol’n
See Chris Costello’s talk next…
![Page 25: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Flow, Fish & Fishing Webpage
www.icess.ucsb.edu/~satoshi/f3
![Page 26: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Lagrangian Particle Trajectories
Velocity fields from Oey et al. [2003] data assimilation product
Quality good where/when there are data available
![Page 27: Flow, Fish and Fishing: Building Spatial Fishing Scenarios Dave Siegel, James Watson, Chris Costello, Crow White, Satoshi Mitarai, Dan Kaffine, Will White,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649d5d5503460f94a3c304/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
-121.5 -121 -120.5 -120 -119.5 -119 -118.5
33.5
34
34.5
35
35.5
36
Biomass for Optimal Yield Case with MPA
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
x 105Biomass Distribution