Flood Resilience and Mitigation

• Flood Resilience for Risk Management:

• Flood Study of River Basin in Indonesia

Iwan K. Hadihardaja1, Arno Adi Kuntoro2, & Mohammad Farid3 • 1 Professor, Center for Water Resources Development, Institut Teknologi Bandung,

Indonesia

• 2 Dr. Eng., Water Resources Engineering Research Group, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia

• 3 Dr. Eng., Water Resources Engineering Research Group, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia

2013 APEC Typhoon

Symposium

Typhoon Behavior and Its Impact in a Warming

Globe

21-23 October 2013 at NTU GIS Convention

Center, Taipei

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Water_cycle.png

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.deviruzer.com/images/LogoITB/LogoITB1920px600jpg.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.deviruzer.com/?p=127&language=en&usg=__Mju9wnVWCORq_4CUeGhfryv-oF0=&h=600&w=600&sz=189&hl=en&start=7&tbnid=-jmvt0Vv2H3JnM:&tbnh=135&tbnw=135&prev=/images?q=logo+itb&gbv=2&hl=en&sa=G

Introduction

• Flooding is a natural occurrence that is beneficial, however, flooding that exceeds normal flows and people’s capacities to cope are regarded as damaging floods that have serious consequences on the human and natural environment

• Flood disasters : damaging flood hazard that adversely affects human populations and the environment

• Floods have the greatest damage potential of all natural disasters…and affect the greatest number of people (UNDP, 2004)

Source: ADPC, Integrated Flood Risk Management in Asia, 2005.

Cause of Flooding • Meteorological phenomena such as:

• Prolonged and intense rainfall

• Cyclones

• Typhoons, storms and tidal surges

• Hydrological increased run-off due to: • Ice and snow melt

• Impermeable surfaces

• Saturated land

• Poor infiltration rates

• Land erosion

• Anthropogenic natural and human activities for example: • Population growth

• Land-use - deforestation, intensive agriculture, unplanned flood control measures

• Socio-economic development activities

• Urbanization

• Climate change


Type of Flood

• Riverine floods occur when major rivers and their side channels overflow, causing extensive inundation

• Slow-onset floods occur slowly and can last weeks or even months; rising flood levels can be forecasted, giving people the opportunity to evacuate the areas at risk.

• Rapid onset / flash floods occur mainly in steep rivers with small and steep mountainous catchments after periods of intense rainfall; rapid rise and fall in water levels; causes intense damages and greater direct loss of life than slow-onset floods.

• Localized and urban floods intense local rainfall in areas with inadequate drainage, storm water management and flood evacuation systems tend to result in localized flooding; floodwater collects in particular areas and may remain for a long duration of time.


Magnitude Level of Flood

• Normal flood (e.g. 1 year flood*) occur almost every year, well-adapted, forecasts can be issued to minimize losses.

• Medium flood (e.g. 5 year flood*) cause some economic loss but not extensive or serious, loss of life is unlikely, people are usually prepared

• Severe flood (e.g. 20 year flood*) affect large geographic areas, people less familiar, significant damages and losses to the physical environment and economic sector

• Catastrophic flood (e.g. 100 year flood*) inundates extensive areas, extremely devastating with multi-fold impacts to life and property and the economy


Flood Mitigation

• Avoidance: to remove object to an area with lower flood risk (assuming there is nowhere with no risk) or to raise thresholds above predicted flood level.

• Resistance: to prevent floodwaters from reaching or penetrating the object.

• Resilience: to minimize the damage caused by floodwaters affecting the object.

Source: de Bruijn, K., Resilience and Flood Risk Management: A Systems Approach Applied to Lowland Rivers, 2005

Flood Disaster Resilience

COMMUNITIESDATA BASES

AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS:GROUND SHAKING

GROUND FAILURE

SURFACE FAULTING

TECTONIC DEFORMATION

TSUNAMI RUN UP

AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARDS•INVENTORY AT RISK•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

FLOOD RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

FLOOD DISASTER

RESILIENCE

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EARLY WARNING•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and

RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONS

Source: Hays, W., Lessons Learned from Past Notable Disasters

Flood Resilience Concept

• Resilience is the ability of a system to recover from a response to a disturbance.

• All floods preparedness for the expected and unexpected is essential for disaster resilience

• All floods timely emergency response is essential for disaster resilience


Resilience and Resistance in Flood Risk Management • Flood risk management strategies may aim at increasing the

system’s resistance, resilience or both.

• Resistance oriented strategies include measures that enable a certain design discharge to pass without causing floods.

• In resilience oriented strategies floods are allowed to occur, but recovery from the flood impacts should be fast and reaction increase with increasing discharges should be gradual.

• Resilience strategies use both non-structural and structural measures while resistance strategies mainly use structural measures.


Flood Resilience: Structural Measures • Any resilience structural measures should be designed so that it can

be used safely over its proposed lifetime taking climate change into account.

• In terms of achieving resilience, there are two main strategies, whose applicability is dependent on the water depth the property is subjected to:

• Water exclusion strategy – where emphasis is placed on minimizing water entry whilst maintaining structural integrity, and on using materials and construction techniques to facilitate drying and cleaning.

• Water entry strategy – where emphasis is placed on allowing water into the building, facilitating draining and consequent drying.

• Other important factors that should be considered for resilient design and construction are cost, durability, ease and practicability of construction, environmental, social and aesthetic acceptability.


Flood Resilience: Non-structural Measures • Design Code

• to be more resilient to flooding to take account of residual risk

• Government Policy • to reduce the threat to people and their property; and

• to deliver the greatest environmental, social and economic benefit, consistent with the Government's sustainable development principles.

• Building Regulation • to protect the health and safety of building occupants, with

secondary considerations including sustainability and comfort.


Case Study of Ciliwung River, Jakarta

• Ciliwung is one of the river which flows into a densely populated area in Jakarta.

• Combination between decreasing of Ciliwung River capacity and increasing of runoff leads to more frequent and intense flood in Jakarta.

Bukit Duri, Jakarta

Kebon Baru, Jakarta

Source: Heru Dian Pransiska, Master Thesis of Water Resources Management, ITB, 2012


Balaraja

TANGERANG

K. Tahang

Cim

an

ceu

ri

Ciledug

Curug

Ranca

Sumur

CiputatSerpong

ParungC

ima

tukC

ibeu

reu

m

ke Rangkasbitung

ke Serang

K. G

rogol

K.

Kru

ku

t

K.

Ma

mp

an

g

Cil

iwu

ng

K.

Cip

ina

ng

K.

Bu

ara

n

K.

Ca

ku

ng

K.

Ab

an

g

BEKASI

CileungsiDEPOK

Cimanggis

Gunung Putri

Pondok Gede

Cibeet

KARAWANG

Cikarang

Jonggol

Cibarusa

Curug

Waduk

Jatiluhur

Katulampa

BOGOR

Empang

ke Cianjur

Gn. Pangrango

JAVA SEAN

0 12 km2 4 6 8 10

K.

Sek

reta

ris

+ 6.01

+ 16.46

+ 240.97

+ 243.33

stasiun 11-06-1999

LOKASI STASIUN

PENGAMATAN MUKA AIR

K.

Sep

ak

Sa

l. M

eru

ya

K.

Ble

nco

ng

K.

Ma

ru

nd

a

K.

Ja

tik

ra

ma

t

K.

Cid

en

g

KETERANGAN :

Garis Batas Wil. Sungai

Ciliwung - Cisadane

Jalan raya

Sungai

Jalan Kereta Api

Batas Daerah Aliran Sungai

Saluran Drainasi

SUNGAI CILIWUNG

1. Katulampa

2. Depok

3. Pintu Air Manggarai

SUNGAI CISADANE

4. Batu Belah

5. Pintu Air Pasar Baru Tangerang

SUNGAI PESANGGRAHAN

6. Sawangan

SUNGAI SUNTER

7. Sunter Hulu

8. Pintu Air Pulogadung

9. Pintu Air Sunter

CAKUNG DRAIN

10. Pintu Air Cakung Drain

CENGKARENG DRAIN

11. Pintu Air Cengkareng

Daerah Khusus Ibu Kota Jakarta Raya

JAKARTA

Cen

gk

are

ng

Dra

in

SATUAN WILAYAH SUNGAI

CILIWUNG-CISADANE

Source: Balai Besar Wilayah Sungai Ciliwung Cisadane (Ciliwung Cisadane River Basin Organization)

•Catchment Area: 337 km2

•Main River: 109.7 km

•Average Slope: 1/70

•Annual Rainfall: 2500 mm

•Topography: •Upper part Steep

•Lower part Mild

•Landuse:

•Upper part Sub urban, Cultivation, Forest

•Lower Part Urban


Many areas in Jakarta, such as in Kampung Melayu and Bukit Duri are annually flooded with inundation depth varies from 1m to 3m.

Bukit Duri

Kampung Melayu

Kebon Baru



Problem formulations: 1) How much is the loss caused by flood? 2) How much is the cost for flood control system?

For this flood assessment, several village were used as case study: Village Clilitan, Rawajati Village, Village Pengadegan, Cawang Village, Village Bidaracina, Village Kebun Baru, Kampung Melayu Village, Bukit Duri and Manggarai village

Flood Hydrograph (Q5, Q10, Q25, Q50, Q100)

Hydraulic Simulation using SOBEK

Inundation Depth and Area

Economic Analysis

Start

Finish


3000

2000

1500

1000

500

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

2500

1860 1880 1900 1960 1980 2000 Year

1940 1920

data trend moving average

Trend of Annual Rainfall

The analysis of observed rainfall data from 1860-2000 shows that statements flood problem caused by climate change cannot be proven with the current available data.

Source: Jan Jaap Brinkman, Jakarta Flood Hazard Mapping Framework, 2007

Trend of Annual Rainfall

• The 2-day rainfall depth in Jakarta city obtained from GSMaP data (JAXA) during 2000/3/1 – 2013/2/28.

• It was found that the during the 2013 flood, Jakarta experienced heavier rainfall than in other years

• However, it should be noted that GSMaP provides satellite-driven rainfall data, and this data may have some uncertainties and biases.

Source: IRIDeS, Tohoku University, Second REPORT of IRIDeS Fact-finding mission to Jakarta, Indonesia, 10-13 February 2013

Flood Hydrograph Hydraulic Simuation

Inundation Depth Inundated Area

Flood Simulation


Flood Simulation

Q5 Q100 Q50 Q25 Q10

Source: Sevi Inasih, Master Thesis of Water Resources Management, ITB, 2013

Floodplain (Section of Cililitan-Manggarai Gate)

River

LEGEND

River Border based on Government Act (PP) 38, 2011

Source: Sevi Inasih, Master Thesis of Water Resources Management, ITB, 2013

RIVER CONTROL AREA

FLOOD PLAIN RIVER

RIVER BORDER (RB) RB BANJIR FLOOD DISCHARGE > 50 YEARS RETURN PERIOD

FLOOD PLAIN

FLOOD CONDITION NORMAL CONDITION

River Control Area

Source: Siswoko, Banjir, Masalah Banjir, dan Upaya Mengatasinya, 2002


Economic Analysis

Return Period

Total Inundation Area (ha)

Inundation Area with

Houses (ha)

Unit of Houses(with Average Area

of 51 m2)

Classification for Damaged of Inundated Houses and Estimation of Damage and Loss Value

Dissapear Severe Damage Minor Damage Total

Unit Rp 15

M/unit Unit Rp 30

M/unit Unit Rp 10

M/unit Unit Rp M

Q5 68.5 45.895 900 135 2,025 405 12,149 360 3,600 900 17,773

Q10 89 59.63 1,169 175 2,625 526 15,784 468 4,677 1169 23,092

Q25 161.25 108.0375 2,118 318 4,770 953 28,598 847 8,474 2118 41,838

Q50 261.75 175.3725 3,439 516 7,740 1547 46,422 1375 13,755 3439 67,914

Q100 372.75 249.7425 4,897 735 11,025 2204 66,108 1959 19,588 4897 96,714

Return Period

Total Inundation

Area

Inundation Area with Industrial Land Use

Industrial Losses Total Losses

(Rp M)

Total Losses with Present Value

(Rp M)

Q5 58.5 2.925 2,416 7,067 10,383

Q10 79 3.95 2,416 9,543 14,022

Q25 161.25 8.0625 2,416 19,479 28,621

Q50 261.75 13.0875 2,416 31,619 46,459

Q100 372.75 18.6375 2,416 45,028 66,161

Calculation for Number of Houses Stricken by Flood

Calculation for Industrial Losses caused by Flood



Loss vs Construction Cost

Optimum Design

Design Period

Co

st (

Rp

. 1,0

00,0

00)

Capital Damage Cost Total Cost



Location: Kebon Baru

• River Protection (Levee)

• River Rehabilitation (Dredging)

• Pump equipment

Structural Measures

Source: Pertiwi, H. P., Integrated Flood Early Warning System _ the Case of Jakarta, 2013


• Flood reference – community based flood warning mechanism

• Flood simulation for testing readiness of system

Non- Structural Measures

Source: Pertiwi, H. P., Integrated Flood Early Warning System _ the Case of Jakarta, 2013

Integrated Flood Management

• Combination among:

• - Spatial Hydro-economic Analysis (Spatial Data Availability?)

• - Regulation of the River Border (Coridor) or Flood Plain Area?

• - Regulation Design Flood (50 years Flood Design) or 25 YFD?

• Implementation:

• - River Basin Master Plan, RBMP (River Basin Organization, RBO)

• - Rural and Urban Master Plan (Land Use Planning), RUMP (Provincial Planning Board Agency, PPBA)

• - Integration between RBMP and RUMP

Case Study of Citarum River, West Java Province

The largest and Longest River In West Java

Total Area: 12.000 km square

Population along the River:

10 Million (50% urban)

Serving : 25 Million of population

(15 M West Java, 10 M DKI Jakarta)

Energy:

1.400 Mega Watt

Irrigation: 420.000 hectare

Water Supply:

80% population of Jakarta (16 m3/s)

Source: Balai Besar Wilayah Sungai Citarum (Citarum River Basin Organization)

Case Study of Citarum River, West Java Province

Sub BasinCatchment

AreaRiver Length

SAGULING RESERVOIR

Upper Citarum River Basin

River System


Saguling DAM Sumedang

Garut

Subang

Cianjur Majalaya

Rancaekek

Ujung Berung

Banjaran

Dayeuh kolot Cimahi

Batujajar

Gn Wayang

• Reduced function of protected areas (forest and non-forest)

• Growing settlements without good planning

• Erosion, Critical land • livestock waste • Agricultural patterns that do not

conform to the principle of conservation

• Industrial waste, domestic, trash

• Spatial control

Segmen 1 (G. Wayang-J. Majalaya)

Segmen 2 (J. Majalaya-J. Dayeuh Kolot)

Segmen 3 (J. Dayeuhkolot-. Ujung Saguling)

Problems of Upper Citarum

1

2

3 • Dominant of flood inundation • Trash

SOURCE :BPLHD JBR, 2009

Source: :BPLHD JBR, 2009

KOTA BANDUNG

KOTA CIMAHI

GN WAYANG

SAGULING

KONDISI DAS CITARUM HULU TAHUN 1994 CONDITIONS OF UPSTREAM OF CITARUM IN 2015 IF NOT CONTROLLED

BANDUNG CITY

CIMAHI CITY

INUNDATION AT SOUTH BANDUNG

WAYANG MOUNTAIN

SAGULING RESERVOIR

SOURCE: BPLHD JBR, 2010

• Area of Bandung Basin = 234.087,84 Ha

Critical land area (2009) = 46.543 Ha (20%)

Problems in Upper Citarum River Basin

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Tahun 2000 Tahun 2005 Tahun 2007 Tahun 2008 Tahun 2009

71,750

51,044

15,8399,968 9,899

81,686

119,198

152,088

172,361176,442

Are

a (H

a)

LAND USE CHANGING IN CITARUM BASIN

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000


71,750

51,044

15,8399,968 9,899

81,686

119,198

152,088

172,361176,442

Are

a (H

a)


0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000


71,750

51,044

15,8399,968 9,899

81,686

119,198

152,088

172,361176,442

Are

a (H

a)


: settlement

: forest


34

Upper

Middle

Lower

Annual Rainfall in CRB

Annual Rainfall in Lower CRB

Annual Rainfall in Middle CRB

Annual Rainfall in Upper CRB

Trend: Related to the indication of the effect of regional climate cycles, in general, trend of annual rainfall in the period 1951-1977 tends to increase and then decrease during the period 1978-2009.

Source: Evaluation of Water Resources Management System for Climate Change Adaptation, MP3EI Research Report, 2012

Trend of Annual Rainfall (1951-1977 & 1978-2009)

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

Upper Citarum (1951-1977) Upper Citarum (1978-2009) Trendline linear

Middle Citarum (1951-1977) Middle Citarum (1978-2009) Trendline linear

Lower Citarum (1951-1977) Lower Citarum (1978-2009) Trendline linear

Citarum (1951-1977) Citarum (1978-2009) Trendline linear

Flood Modeling and Simulation in Spatial Perspective

Water Depth Vs Time

0,00

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12

0,14

0,16

350 400 450 500 550 600

Ke

dal

aman

(m

)

Waktu (jam)

GRAFIK KEDALAMAN GENANGAN dan WAKTU GENANG

Floodplain area yang memerlukan

penanganan masalah drainase

Ked

alam

an G

enan

gan

Mak

sim

um

Waktu Genangan

kedalaman syarat batas floodplain area

Time (hour)

Depth in m

Local Drainage Problem

DREDGING OF CITARUM : Dredging along the 30 km (from Sapan to Curug Jompong) , estimation cost : 125 Billion

Limpasan

Tidak Ada Limpasan Sepanjang S. Citarum

Muka Air S. Citarum Setelah Pengerukan

Citarum river now

SUMBER: DINAS PSDA JBR, 2010

CUT - OFF CUT-OFF

"B"

CUT-OFF

"C"

CUT-OFF

"D"

CUT-OFF

"E"

CUT-OFF

"F"

CUT-OFF

"G"

CUT-OFF

"H"

64

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5

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3

PROPOSED PROFILE OF CITARUM RIVER

FOR URGENT PLANE

LE

VA

TIO

N A

BO

VE

M.S

.L

CIMAHI

NANJUNG B

RIDGE

CIBEUREUM

CIWID

EY

PROPOSED BRID

GE BC-1

PROPOSED BRID

GE BC-2

CILAMPENI BRID

GE

BP-1

CIBOLERANG

PROPOSED BRID

GE

BC-3 CITEPUS CISANGKUY

CIKAPUNDUNG

CICADAS

CIWASTRA

CIDURIA

N

CIPAMOKOLAN

CIKERUH

CITARIK

LEFT BANK ELEVATION

RIGHT BANK ELEVATION

PROPOSED FLOOD

WATER LEVEL

DAYEUH KOLOT B

RIDGE B

P-2,3 AND 4

CITARUM UPSTREAM

SAME AS EXISTING BANK ELEVATION

I = 1/5.500(0.00018)

LEFT BANK

ELEVATION

RIGHT BANK

ELEVATION

RIVER BED

ELEVATION

RIVER BED

ELEVATION

FLOOD WATER

LEVEL

RIVER BED SLOPE

BANK ELEVATION(M)

(M)

(M)

(M)

(M)

(M)

CUMULATIVE DISTANCE(KM)

SECTION DISTANCE (KM)

SECTION NAME

PR

OP

OS

ED

EX

IST

ING

Datum +635.00m

+640.00

+645.00

+650.00

+655.00

+660.00

+665.00

+670.00

"A"

PROPOSED RIVER BED

OF LONG TERM PLANPROPOSED RIVER BEDOF URGENT PLAN

2

1

3

3. POLDER DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYEUH KOLOT

SUMBER: DINAS PSDA JBR, 2010

Cieunteung

Parung halang

Citepus

IMPLICATIONS FOR SECTOR / AREA OTHER: LAND AQUISITON, HOUSING, ETC. RELOCATION COSTS = Rp. 286 BILLION

Process of IWRM Planning

Source: Capnet, IWRM Module

Summary

• Resilience is important for flood disaster management to reduce risk to people and property from flood and its effects.

• Flood resilience is not to avoid or to prevent the floodwaters but to reduce damage caused by the floodwaters.

• Non-structural and structural measures are both used in flood resilience.

• Structural measures include construction of flood control infrastructures such as levees.

• Non-structural measures include efforts to reduce the likelihood or consequence of risk such as policy and warning systems.

Summary

• Minimize (=Zero?) Excess Runoff

• Minimize (=Zero?) soil loss

• Minimize (=Zero?) pollution

• IWRM planning process are important aspect for sustainability of the Citarum River Basin regarding to Flood Resilience for Risk Management

Recommendation

• Cost, durability, ease and practicability of construction, environmental, social and aesthetic acceptability should be considered in structural measures.

• Instead of system improvement, non-structural measures need participation s and increasing response from community for preparedness.

• Preparation, protection, and ability to respond effectively are important key of the resilience to flood disaster so that they should be integrated and sustained.

• It is important to use adaptive measures regarding flood resilience for risk management.

Reference • ADPC, Integrated Flood Risk Management in Asia, 2005.

• Simonovic, P. S., Flood Mitigation Efforts in the Red River Basin, 2000.

• Hays, W., Lessons Learned from Past Notable Disasters.

• de Bruijn, K., Resilience and Flood Risk Management: A Systems Approach Applied to Lowland Rivers, 2005.

• Department for Communities and Local Government of London, Improving the Flood Performance of New Buildings, 2005.

• Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the IPCC, 2012.

• Heru Dian Pransiska, Kajian Pemodelan Spasial dan Hidro-Ekonomi untuk Menentukan Debit Banjir Rencana di Sungai Ciliwung DKI Jakarta, Master Thesis of Water Resources Management Magister Program, ITB, 2012

• Sevi Inasih, Kajian Pemodelan Banjir untuk Mendukung Kebijakan Sempadan Sungai (Studi Kasus Ruas Cililitan – Pintu Air Manggarai), Master Thesis of Water Resources Management Magister Program, ITB, 2013

• Citarum River Basin Organization (Balai Besar Wilayah Sungai Citarum)

• JICA Preparatory Survey for Upper Citarum Basin Tributaries Flood Management Project, 2010.

• Pertiwi, H. P., Integrated Flood Early Warning System _ the Case of Jakarta, Workshop on Water Related Disaster, ITB and University of Tohoku, Bandung 16 September 2013

• Siswoko, Banjir, Masalah Banjir, dan Upaya Mengatasinya, 2002

• BPLHD Jawa Barat, 2009

• Evaluation of Water Resources Management System for Climate Change Adaptation, MP3EI Research Report, 2012

• Ciliwung Cisadane River Basin Organization (Balai Besar Wilayah Sungai Ciliwung Cisadane)

• Jan Jaap Brinkman, Jakarta Flood Hazard Mapping Framework, 2007

Thank You……. The Citarum River Basin has Big Problems… And needs Big Solutions….???

Disaster Management Concept

• Mitigation sustained action that reduces or eliminates long-term risk to people and property from natural hazards and their effects

• Preparation development and practice of emergency plans to respond to floods and monitoring to allow timely warnings

• Response action that start as soon as a disaster is detected; a function of the size of the disaster

• Recovery final stage - to recover from the physical and financial effects of the disaster - final stage

Source: Simonovic, P. S., Flood Mitigation Efforts in the Red River Basin, 2000

Flood Resilience and Mitigation

Documents

Transcript of Flood Resilience and Mitigation