Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul

7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul

1/24

Overview of the

Float ing Produc t ion Secto r

International Marit ime Ass oc iates, Inc . Washin gto n, DC, USA Tel: 202-333-8501

Fax: 202-333-8504

E-mai l : [email protected]

Websi te: www.imastudies.com

Presentat ion by J ames McCaul at the

18thAnnual Float ing Produc t ion Systems

Conference and Exh ibi t ion

December 1, 2001


2/24

The Presentation Will . . .

International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 2 - www.imastu dies.com

Profile the current inventory of floaters

Characterize the current order backlog

Identify potential new floater projects

Describe the longer term outlook for newfloaters


3/24

154 Floating Production Systems

Now Available


15 Tension Leg Platforms

38 Production Semis

92 FPSO Vessels

9 Production Spars


4/24

Where Floating Production SystemsAre Now Operating

International Marit ime As soc iates, Inc. - 4 - www.imastudies.com

2

12

19

6

TLPSEMI

FPSOFS

O

12

1

9

3

TLPSEMI

FPSOSPARFS

O

19

10

2

TLPSEMI

FPSOFS

O

1

TLP

SEMI

FPSOFSO

1 1

12

1

25

TLPSEMI

FPSO

PROBARGEFSO

1

1914

TLPSEMIFPSOFSO

1

12

TLPSEMIFPSOFSO

9

3

TLPSEMI

FPSOFS

O

1

15

TLPSEMI

FPSOFS

O

5 5

TLPSEMI

FPSOFS

O

Not shown are 4 FP SOs and 2 semi s that are off -fi eld and stack ed. Unit s i n the

GOM incl ude 2 FSOs off Mexi co and 1 FSO off Colom bia


5/24

Geographic Distribution ofProduction Floaters Now Operating


FPSOs Semis

SparsTLPs

No. Europe

West Africa

Brazil

Asia/Pac

Other

21%

21%

11%

37%

11%

No. Europe

GOM Asia/Pac

13%

80% 7%GOM 100%

No. Europe

Brazil

Asia/Pac

Other

GOM

West Africa

32%

50%

5%

8%

3%3%


6/24

30 Year Growth in Number of FloatersHas Been Impressive


Num

berofIn

stalledU

nits

197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003

0

40

80

120

160

FPSO

Semi

TLP

Spar

as of year end

154

42

16

1

1993 to 2003+ 267%


7/24

Over the Past 7 Years 101 Floating Production,30 Storage Systems Have Been Installed


- - - - - Where Installed - - - - -

7

19

3

TLPSEMI

FPSO FS

O

9

1

9

1

TLPSEMI

FPSOSPARFS

O3

TLPSEMI

FPSO FS

O

1

17

7

TLPSEMI

FPSO FS

O6

11

3

TLPSEMI

FPSO FS

O

1

119

TLPSEMI

FPSO FS

O

4

TLPSEMI

FPSO FS

O

4 3

TLPSEMI

FPSO FS

O

1

TLPSEMI

FPSO FS

O

The FSO in t he GOM i s off Mexico

1

TLPSEMI

FPSO FS

O


8/24

Area

% ofInstallations Type

Northern Europe 26% 19 FPSOs, 7 semis

Gulf of Mexico 19% 9 TLPs, 9 spars, 1 semi

West Africa 18% 17 FPSOs, 1 semi

Brazil 17% 11 FPSOs, 6 semis

Asia/Pacific 16% 15 FPSOs, 1 TLP

Other 5% 5 FPSOs

International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 8 - www.imastud ies.com

Production Floater InstallationsOver Past 7 Years


9/24

Almost 11 MB/D Oil Processing CapacityNow On Floating Production Systems


14.5 mb/d

at end 2005

On

Order

0.1 mb/d

at end 1983

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

200020

0120

0220

0320

0420

05

1.3 mb/d

at end 1992

+ 32%10.8 mb/d

at end 2003


10/24

37 Floating Production Systems and

5 Storage Systems are on Order(as of No vember 2003)


4 TLPs 2 mini, 2 wellhead

25 FPSO Vessels

12 new,11 conversions, 2 upgrades

4 Production Semis all new

4 Production Spars

all new

5 FSOs 1 new, 4 conversions


11/24

Where Floating Production and StorageSystems on Order are to be Installed


1

TLPFPSO

SEMI

FSO

2 2

4

TLP

SEMI

FPSO

SPAR

6

TLPSEMI

FPSOFS

O

23

TLPSEMI

FPSO FS

O

Not shown is 1 speculat ive FPSO hul l (Aoka Mizu) that has been

completed but not yet assigned to a fi eld.

2

10

1

TLPSEMI

FPSO FSO

4

TLPSEMI

FPSO FS

O

2

TLPSEMI

FPSO FS

O

1

TLP

SEMI

FPSO

FSO

1

TLPSEMI

FPSO FS

O


12/24

Where to beInstalled

% ofOrders Type

West Africa 32% 10 FPSOs, 2 well-TLPs

Gulf of Mexico 22% 2 TLPs, 2 semis, 4 spars

Asia/Pacific 22% 8 FPSOs

Brazil 16% 6 FPSOs

Northern Europe 3% 1 semi

Other 5% 2 FPSO

International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 12 - www.imastud ies.com

Production Floaters Now on Order(as of November 2003)


13/24

6 Year Trend in Orders forFloating Production Systems

(average order intake per m onth )


76 Mon th

Average

1.3 Unit s

Per Mont h

1.001.40

0.750.750.750.40

1.001.50

0.83

2.002.80

2.251.80

0.50

1.500.751.00

Jun-Sep'97

Oct'97-Feb'9

8

Mar-Jun'9

8

Jul-Oct'9

8

Nov'98-Feb'9

9

Mar-Jul'99

Aug-Nov'99

Dec'99-Mar'0

0

Apr-Sep'0

0

Oct'00-Jan'0

1

Feb-Jun'0

1

Jul-Oct'0

1

Nov'01-Mar'0

2

Apr-Jul'0

2

Aug'02-Jan'0

3

Feb'03-Jun'0

3

Jul'03-Oct'0

3

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00


14/24

87 Floating Production Systems arePlanned or Under Study

(as of November 2003)


9

1

5 6 5 41 1

10

6

12 3 11

3

3

10

3

3

W.Africa

GulfofMexico

Brazil

SEAsia

Australia

No.Europe

China

Canada

Other


15/24

Projects in the Biddingor Final Design Stage

(as of November 2003)


11

43 3

21

0 01

W.Afri

caBr

azil

South

eastAsia

Austr

alia

Gulfo

fMexico

China

Cana

da

No.Europ

eOthe

r


16/24

Some Near Term Projects . . .


Akpo

Agbami

Kizomba C/D

Block G

Usan/Ukot

Roncador P-54

Marlim Leste

Tahiti

Merganser/Vortex

Peng Lai 2


17/24

Projects Planned or Under Study(as of November 2003)


1412 12

10

64

31

3

Gulfo

fMexico

Brazil

W.Afri

ca

South

eastAsia

No.Europ

e

Austr

alia

China

Cana

daOthe

r


18/24

Some Longer Term Projects . . .


Southern Alaminos Canyon FPSO/shuttletanker or production semi/pipeline?

Block 31 Angola large FPSO

Bonga Southwest large FPSO, maybe jointdevelopment with Aparo

Marlim Sul/Roncador 3 or 4 additional large

FPSOs or semis

Gehem/Ranggas TLP/production bargecombo, like West Seno


19/24

The Long Term Outlook for FloaterOrders is Very Favorable



20/24

Trend in World Oil andGas Consumption


Source: B P

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

65

75

85

Oil--Mill i

ons

ofB/D

2000

2300

2600

Gas--Bil

lionCubicMeters

Natural Gas

Consumption Growing

2.2% Annually

Oil Consumption

Growing 1.2 %

Annually


21/24

Long Term Oil and Gas Demand


IEA expects global energy demand to increase at arate of 1.7% per year over next 30 years

Oil and natural gas to supply 90% of the increaseddemand

Oil consumption is expected to rise at an annual

rate of 1.6%

Gas consumption is expected to double by 2030


22/24

Futures Price of Crude($ per bb l)


Futures Price as ofNov. 10, 2003

Futures Price as ofFeb. 14, 2003

Dec'86

Dec'87

Dec'88

Dec'89

Dec'90

Dec'91

Dec'92

Dec'93

Dec'94

Dec'95

Dec'96

Dec'97

Dec'98

Dec'99

Dec'00

Dec'01

Dec'02

Dec'03

Dec'04

Dec'05

Dec'06

Dec'07

Dec'08

Dec'09

0

10

20

30

40$/BBL

Spot Priceof W TI Crude

Source: Wall Street Journal


23/24

Our February 2003 Forecast ofRequirements for Floating Production Units


Ac tua l Forecast

Low

Forecast

HighForecast

NumberofUni t

s

197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200620082009

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

as o f year end

**

245

270


24/24

This Forecast Would Produce Orders for62 to 89 FPUs Between 2003-2008


Composition of orders is expected to be

- 60% FPSOs

- 30% spars or TLPs- 10% production semis

These orders would generate $22 to 31 billion capex

In February 2004 we will revisit this forecast andextend the forecast period from 2004 to 2009

Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul

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