FIVE VULNERABILITIESOF

T H E A R C T I C

As the Russian Federation youngest city (established in 1916) Murmansk is faced with many of the similar challenges of the Mono-Cities in the country even though Murmansk has a diversified industry. After WW2 50 million apartments were built in the USSR and the housing structure in Murmansk was part of this development. Today the city is faced with the challenge of a housing structure that in some cases has reached the end of its life cycle. For instance the Khrushchev 637 5-story housing blocks with a life span of 50 years has reached this limit and need to be replaces now.

This tendency is a generic trait all over the former Soviet Union, but is especially prevalent in the North where settlements were constructed over the course of a few years to feed off the natural resources in the area. At the time of construction any consideration to the inherent temporality of resource-based industry was not even considered and full-scale cities were built with industrial efficiency and logistics. Now generations has passed and settlements that started off as collections of migrant workers

persuaded to move to these places by generous benefits and social security, has become the home and birthplace for a great number of people with an uncertain future. This uncertainty is due to a number of factors. First of all the industry that support these communities are in need of much smaller labor force than the cities were planned for. Secondly the very nature of resource-based industry is that it has nomadic traits, even though the speed of this nomadic movement is extremely slow. The get-in-get-rich-get-out mentality is common for all kinds of mining, gas- and oil extraction all over the world, and should not be forgotten. Third the globalization of the companies also means that the workforce is globalized where the prospect of getting work in the feudalistic company in the company-owned city depends on your connections, especially in Russia where corruption is an huge and increasing problem (Russia is 22nd to last on Corruption Perceptions Index by Transparency International). The important question that needs to be addressed is what the future of these places should and could

be? Due to the generic nature of these cities one could be tempted to resolve to an all-purpose solution, but this would be a reproduction of the mistakes of the past.

In a way we talk of an architectural baby boom where the same challenges occur as the demographic challenge of the large generation that was born in the western world after the end of WW2. In the case of the baby boomers the difficulty is how to continue a welfare state where the productive generation are fewer than the generation that is reaching retirement. This demographic challenge is not the case in the Russian Federation, but there is a building mass that is also reaching a architectural retirement. The mass of this group of retirees needs to be addressed with the same degree of seriousness, as the western welfare states need to address the serious challenges connected to the baby boomers (the current economical crisis in Greece, Spain And Portugal is for instance partly a byproduct of this). One of the few positive sides of the mass-produced standardized buildings is that similar strategies

could be developed to tackle these challenges.

THE VULNERABILITY OF AGING INFRASTRUCTURE

THE VULNERABILITY

OF

AGING INFRASTRUCTURE

Vladimir L

enin

Alexei Rykov

Joseph Stalin

Georgy M

alenkov

Nikita K

hrushchev

Leonid Brezhnev

Yuri Andropov

Konstantin Chern

enko

Mikhail Gorbachev

Boris Yelts

in

Vladimir P

utin

Dmitry M

edvedev

19241926

19531955

19641961

19821984

19851991

19992008

20112020

20302040

20502060

20702080

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13 sqr. m pr. person

Increase in square meteres pr. person in USSR from 1926 to

1980

Khruschev 637 5-story housing

blocks with a life-span og 50 years

Rubel pr. square meter for apartments in

Russian Federeation from 1998 to present.

Housing Block form the 1980- and 90-ieswith a 100-year life

span

Second Housing Crisisdue to buildings

reaching the end of their life-cycle

First Housing Crisisdue to buildings

reaching the end of their life-cycle

Khruschev 637 5-story housing block that has

reached the end of it’s life cycle and

need to be replaced now.

Russian FederationNumber 154 in 2011

NorwayNumber 10 in 2011

AngolaNumber 168 in 2011

Corruption Indicator from Transparrency International (Scale from 1 to 10, where 10 is the higest)

0

2

4

6

8

10

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

Mono-cultures exist in many places in the arctic due to a urbanization where development has been fueled by the extraction of a single resource. Sometimes one resource has been replaced by another but in general settlements such as these has developed a semi-religious worship of the main reason for it’s existence; the resource (in most cases non-renewable). The dependancy of one resource leads to a certain degree of lethargy and lack of creativity that hinders exploration of alternative trajectories of development and makes these places extremely vulnerable to change. As in the case of Kirkenes where real efforts to change this mentality was only done after the the mining buisiness was temporarily closed down. This stands in contrast to the spatial practices of the native population that over decades has developed a way of living in the landscape that is completely sustainable and leaves very few visible traces behind.

The collapse of the USSR in 1991 and the privatization of formerly commonly owned property gave rise to a multitude of individual

companies with an atom like structure based on the spatial practices of the former Soviet Union. The landscape that they inherited was largely base on cities that was founded with a single purpose of existence; the main factory. The cities are mono-cities and amounted to 468 (15% of all Russian cities) at the collapse of the Soviet Union and they are all characterized by a total dependency on their main source of income. Step by step the privatization of the multitude of these companies has merged into large powerful companies that has filled the gap left by the collapse of the former regime. The characteristics of these companies has a lot in common with the former system. Due to the heavy reliance on the main source of income and the new ownership structure of the new large companies (for example Gazprom) the city is in most aspects in the hands of the company. Not unlike the way things were organized in the Soviet Union, only in the scale of the city and with a company that has less social responsibility to it’s citizens and the future of the city than the regime that created the system. The result is a feudal semi-

capitalistic system where the cities are hostages of their own source of income and sole purpose of existence.

It is easy to criticize the particulars around transition from communal ownership to privatization in Russia but one should keep in mind that this transition is unprecedented in history. The Russian society has gone through several shock treatments, and the transition that occurred during the 90ies is by far one the most radical of these. The condition of the mono-culture-city is in many ways also a phenomenon that is specific to Russia because of the ability the Soviet Union had to make drastical changes and to move people around as the regime saw fit. But the single-resource-dependency is common for many of the cities in the North. This is also the case with the contradiction that lies in the nomadic nature of the globalized industry, the permanence of the city and the fate of the people living there. This is even true for places like Vardø and Hammerfest where fish, which is a renewable resource, used to be the main source of income but has been rationalized

and moved elsewhere. When does the balance shift from being a region that is just a treasury of the national state where wealth is extracted and relocated to become a autonomous entity with a voice of it’s own.

The Vulnabilitiy of Mono-Cultures

THE VULNERABILITYOF

M o n o - C u l t u r e s

Winterpasture

Summer pasture

Reindeer husbandry migration

Planned windmill parks

Existing windmill parks

Hydro electrical power

Soil extraction sites

Reindeer husbandry and development A reindeer herders main challenge is to preserve their pasture land. The future for reindeer husbandry in the Barents region is highly dependent on the availability of grazing land. Extensive oil, gas and mining development will likely lead to loss of vital ranges, in particular coastal summer pastures and calving grounds. Any vision of sustainability that is related to the Arctic has to take account of the knowledge and lessons learned by those who practice reindeer husbandry and related subsistence activities in the region.

Loss of grazing land Physical destruction of habitat and disturbance from developement of infrastructure, including the construction of artillery range, buildings, hydro-electrical facilities, windparks, pipelines, cabins and etc has led to 25 % loss of grazing land in the Barents Eura Arctic region. Up to 35 % of the range in the coastal area of Finnmark lost

because of that disturbance. That is 1% of the summer grazing land used tradionally by S·mi reindeer herders along the coast of Northern Norway is lost every year.Preservation of grazing land is one major task in response to the warming in the arcticIncreased vegetation growth as an response to the climate change is also one reason for loss of grazing land. For reindeer grazing conditions, the increase in temperature during summertime will lead to more unstable winters in continental areas, with a further increased frequency of freeze-thaw cycles and subsequent icing of pastures. Summer pastures may change from open to shrub-vegetated land. Growing seasons will become longer and plant production increase. This can lead to shift in migration routes and calving grounds, reindeer starvation and change in reindeer water crossings.

Further development windmill parks and mining. There are about 40 windmillparks planned for the coast and highland of Finnmark that can result in a distuburance for

reindeer husbandry in 2,5-5,0 Km range. In Karasjok area there are plans of mining pastures. Mining companies have said that they will buy people out, those who have to leave reindeer husbandry. But none of them who use the pastures are interested in selling land. People in Karasjok have said that their pastures are not for sale for any amount of gold-money. If companies are going to use the pastures, which are already scarce, for 15 years it means that future generations will not be socialised in reindeer husbandry and will not learn the traditional knowledge.

Strategies for reindeer herders to adaptThere seems to be a need for communicating traditional knowlegde about pasture use, snow change, reindeer terminology and herds ability to adapt to changing condition. The traditional knowledge has been preserved and passed through generations. Documenting the knowledge of the husbandry, the economic and cultural values, is crucial for making further industrial development.

The Vulnabilitiy of Overlapping Fields of InterestsTHE VULNERABILITY

OF

OVERLAPPING FIELDS OF INTERESTS

2.0

0.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

19001950

20002050

2100

Sea

Ice

Ext

ent

(10

000

000

km²)

Arctic Ocean

Year

September Sea Ice Extent Observations (red) versus Models and Model Mean (black) (average model data

and s.d. in black)

The earth¥s climate is undergoing a change is a fact, we are beyond doubt or discussion of that. But how can models, scenarios and numbers vary from centimeters, meters and kilometers when estimations for sea level rise or sea ice extent in the future. There is not one simple scenario, changes could happen faster, become more dramatic than predictions say. There are new factors being discovered all the time. In the case of the arctic one of the concerns is the natural sources of greenhouse gas.Pollutants

The Arctic region is one of the many minor natural sources of the greenhouse gas methane. When pollutants are considered in the global climate change model the main focus is on CO2 emission, but in the Arctic other short-lived pollutants are equal to the affects of CO2, that is Black Carbon, Methane and Ozone. The sensitivity of the Arctic to either local or remote forcing has not been quantified across a number of models. Therefore, it is hard to compare the Arcitc climate change factors with other studies. Some scientists believe the thawing of permafrost

could become the epicenter of climate change. The scientists say 1.5 trillion tons of carbon, could be locked inside icebound earth since the age of mammoths, and it could be a climate time bomb waiting to explode if released into the atmosphere.

ÑThe lack of data over a long period of time casts uncertainty over the extent of the threat.ì Ñ...several experts say itís too early to predict whether Arctic methane will be the tipping point.ì Robert Corell, an eminent U.S. climate change researcher and Arctic specialistThawing of permafrost could have dramatic impact on landscape and infrastructure. An example is the impact on the russian town Chersky where the ground has become so weak that roads have sinked, buildings cracked and shifted. Arctic warming and its consequences have worldwide implications and Arctic vegetation zones are very likely to shift, tranformations in vegetationl systems. Animal species’ diversity, ranges, and distribution would change. Many coastal

communities and facilities face could face a dramatic change is weather conditions. Change in arctic marine systems with higher temperature that could increase stock productivity in some species and could possible introduce new species in the ecosystem. . Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine transport and access to resources, a certain benefit that could be for oil and gas explorations. But how will the population of 4 million inhabitants in the Arctic region respond to these uncertain changes?

The Vulnabilitiy of Uncertainty

THE VULNERABILITYOF

U N C E R T A I N T Y

Continuous permafrost>90% area coverage

Discontinuous/sporadic10-90% coverage

Isolated patches

THE VULNERABILITYOF

WEAK COMMOM IDENTITY

The Barents region is a politically constructed geographical area invented by Torvald Stoltenberg in 1993 as a strategy for a new diplomatic path after the Cold War. Of the countries that fall under this definition (Norway, Sweden, Finland and Russia) only Norway and Russia have a stake in the real area of dispute; the oil and gas resources and the fishing rights at sea. In an attempt to contextualize this new region, references to the past are made to the last time there was extensive contact between Norway and Russia by naming the border region between Russia and Norway “the Pomor Zone”. This is supposed to be a free trade, free-movement zone that

stretches into Norway to Kirkenes and to Nikel in Russia. The zone is supposed to have specialized laws and common agreements and the hope of the Norwegian government is that this will be were the gas from the Stockman Fields will be landed. Critics of this strategy (Nils Bømer of Bellona) characterize it as naïve suggestion. Taking into consideration that the area in question is heavily contaminated by atomic waste because the border zone was used as storage for this in the USSR. The area is still heavily militarized with a lot of weapons and the Russian fleet within its borders. The FSB has recently taken over the control of the area and it is closed off even for native Russians. It is hard to imagine

that the Russian Federation would be excited about the idea of a free-flow zone here.

Other attempt are made apart from diplomacy to establish the region as something more than a political invention by giving out grants for cultural exchange between the countries involved in the cooperation. An example of this is the Barents Spetakkel by Pikene på Broen. A culture festival and event that is meant to create new connections in the region. This is without a doubt a positive happening, especially for the population of Kirkenes. But there is also local resentment toward what is seen by the locals as a Barents Elite and representatives from the central

government. The heated discussion that has revolved around the new Barents Secretariat building can be seen as a result of this.

The dispersed populations of the arctic are the ones who will be affected first by the climate change but they are in the extreme periphery and they are few. A new arctic identity and common strategy to become a stronger counterpart to the political and economical interests that are at play in the region could be formed in this region.

The Vulnabilitiy of Weak Common Identity

Norwegians

Norwegians

Sweeds

SweedsFinns

Finns

Kareleans

Komi

KomiMansy

Khanty

Selkups

Selkups

Kets

Kets

Khanty KhantyNenets

Nenets

Nenets

EnetsDolgans

Evenks

Evenks

Evenks

Evenks

Evenks

EvenksEvenks

EvenksEvenks

Yukagirs

Yukagirs

Chukchi

Inuit(Inupiat)

Koyukon

Holikachuk

Deg Hit’an

Tanana

Tutchone

Ahtna

Eyak

Tagish

Han

Tlingit

Kaska

Tlingit

Slavey

DorgibInuit(Inuviluit)

InuitInuit

InuitInuit

InuitKalaaliit

Icelanders

Faroese

Chipwyan

SiberianYupik

CentralAlaskanYupik

AleutsAlutiiq

AlutiiqDena’inaTanacrossUpper Kerksokwin

Aleuts

Chukchi

Koryaks

KereksKoryaks

Evens

Aleus

Evenks

Sakha(Yakuts)

Sakha(Yakuts)

Sakha(Yakuts)

DolgansNganasans

Nenets

Sami

Sami

Altaic family

Indo-European family

Na-Dene familiy

Germanic branch IEskimo-Aleut family

Isolated languages(Ketik snd Yukagari)

Inuit group of Eskimo br.

Yupik group of Eskimo br.

Aleut Branch

Athabaskan branch

Eyak branch

Tilinit branch

Uralic family

Finno-Ugric branch

Samouedic branch

Turcicic branch

Tungusic branch

Chutkoto-Kamchatkan family

L a n g u a g e srepresented in the

Arctic Region

2879 km

3820

km

3349

km

3812

km

3320

km

5688 km 4963 km

3410

km

Copenhagen Moscow

Barents Region

HelsinkiStockholmOslo

Reykjavik

Washington DCOttowa

Distance from captial (where decitions are made)

of countries in the

Arctic Counsil to the North Pole