Final Project submission For

Turn Down the HeatBy

Loveson SamuelIndia

We are living in a

Earth is warming

It has It has already already warmed warmed byby above the pre-industrial averageabove the pre-industrial average

0.85 0.85 oo

These changes shows that climate changing is happening in out times

Business as usual will cause our only planet to be 4 o warmer by 2100

In the In the context of context of South South

AsiaAsiaINDIAINDIA

South AsiaSouth AsiaSouth Asia is home to a growing population of about 1.6

billion people, which is projected to rise to over 2.2 billion people by 2050. It has seen robust economic growth in recent years, yet poverty remains widespread, with the world’s largest concentration of poor people residing in the region. The timely arrival of the summer monsoon, and its regularity, are critical for the rural economy and

agriculture in South Asia.

Key impacts of climate change Key impacts of climate change for the regionfor the region

Heat extremesHeat extremesIrrespective of future emission paths, in the

next twenty years a several-fold increase in the frequency of unusually hot and extreme summer months is

projected. A substantial increase in mortality is expected to be associated with such heat extremes and has been

observed in the past.

PrecipitationPrecipitation

Climate change will impact precipitation withvariations across spatial and temporal scales. A major food

producing region, wouldget drier and presently wet areas, get wetter. The seasonal

distribution of precipitation is expected to become amplified, with a decrease of up to 30 percent during the

dry season and a 30 percent increase during the wet season under a 4°C world .

MonsoonMonsoon

Significant increases in inter-annual and intraseasonalvariability of monsoon rainfall are to be expected.

With global mean warming approaching 4°C, an increasein intra-seasonal variability in the Indian summer

monsoonprecipitation of approximately 10 percent is projected.

Largeuncertainty, however, remains about the fundamental

behaviorof the Indian summer monsoon under global warming.

DroughtDrought

The projected increase in the seasonality of precipitationis associated with an increase in the number of dry days,

leading to droughts that are amplified by continued warming, with adverse consequences for human lives.

Droughts are expected to pose an increasing risk in parts of the region. Although drought projections are made

difficult by uncertain precipitation projections and differing drought indicators, some regions emerge to be at particularly high risk. These include north-western India,

Pakistan and Afghanistan. Over southern India, increasing wetness is projected with broad agreement between

climate models.

Water resources Water resources

The Water resources are already at risk in the densely populated countries of South Asia, according to most

methods for assessing this risk. For global mean warming approaching 4°C, a 10 percent increase in annual-mean monsoon intensity and a 15 percent increase in year-to-

year variability of Indian summer monsoon precipitation is projected compared to normal levels during the first half of the 20th century. Taken together, these changes imply that an extreme wet monsoon that currently has a chance

of occurring only once in 100 years is projected to occur every 10 years by the end of the century.

Key impacts of climate change Key impacts of climate change for Indiafor India

The Indian Government's National Communications (NATCOM) report of 2004 identifies the following as the impacts of climate change most likely to affect India between now and 2100:

• Decreased snow cover will affect snow-fed and glacial systems such as the Ganges and Brahmaputra. 70 % of the summer flow of the Ganges comes from melt water.

• Erratic monsoons will affect India’s rainfed agriculture, peninsular rivers, water and power supply,

• Wheat production will drop by 4-5 million tonnes, even with a rise in temperature of only 1 ºC.• Rising sea levels will cause displacement along one of the most densely populated coastlines in the world, also threatening freshwater sources and mangrove ecosystems.

• Floods will increase in frequency and intensity. This will heighten the vulnerability of people in the country's coastal, arid and semi-arid zones.

• Over 50 % of India’s forests are likely to experience shift in forest types, adversely impacting associated biodiversity, regional climate dynamics and livelihoods based on forest products.

How to mitigateHow to mitigateGlobally, the States and Governments

are doing big deal to prevent the release of CO2 and keep with warming

under 2 Degree

At individual level following At individual level following action steps would helpaction steps would help

1. Protect the trees and plant more.2. Conserve energy: Use high efficiency appliances3. Buy locally grown food4. Conserve water 5. For Green Clubs and sensitize further

References

Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C World Must Be AvoidedWorld Bank, 2012

Turn Down The Heat Report Climate Extremes Regional Impacts Case for Resilience Vol. 2

Adaptation to Climate Change with a focus to Rural Areas and India GIZ MOEF