Fidelity - Perspectivas para los mercados en 2014 por Dominic Rossi
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Transcript of Fidelity - Perspectivas para los mercados en 2014 por Dominic Rossi
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Global Investment Outlook Equities 2014
Madrid, 16th January 2014Dominic RossiGlobal CIO, Equities
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Incipient signs of a global synchronised upswing
Source: ISI Group. January 2014
Synchronised Global Expansion
Global Manufacturing PMI (JP Morgan) at 53.3% in December
2
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Proxy of US GDP growth suggests c3% growth
Source: Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse Research. January 2014
3
-9%
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013US lead indicator: Implied GDP growth (6wk lead) US GDP qoq %, saar
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ene
08m
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Fiscal drag on the US economy continues
4
Source: ISI Group. January 2014
U.S. Real Federal Govt. Spending
Fast (1975 & 1982)
Slow (1991 & 2001 )
Current
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ene
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abr 0
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jul 0
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oct 0
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ene
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abr 0
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jul 0
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oct 0
9
ene
10
abr 1
0
jul 1
0
oct 1
0
ene
11
abr 1
1
jul 1
1
oct 1
1
ene
12
abr 1
2
jul 1
2
oct 1
2
ene
13
abr 1
3
jul 1
3
Trade position – path of structural improvement
5
Source: ISI Group. January 2014
U.S. Real Exports
Fast (1975 & 1982)
Slow (1991 & 2001 )
Current
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ene
08m
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sep
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09m
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sep
09no
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10m
ar 1
0m
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0ju
l 10
sep
10no
v 10
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11m
ar 1
1m
ay 1
1ju
l 11
sep
11no
v 11
ene
12m
ar 1
2m
ay 1
2ju
l 12
sep
12no
v 12
ene
13m
ar 1
3m
ay 1
3ju
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Housing market can provide further stimulus
6
Source: ISI Group. January 2014
U.S. Real Residential Fixed Investment
Fast (1975 & 1982)
Slow (1991 & 2001 )
Current
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Capex key to 2014 growth prospects
7
Source: ISI Group. January 2014
U.S. Real Non-Residential Fixed Investment
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135
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08m
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8m
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8ju
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09m
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9ju
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sep
09no
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10m
ar 1
0m
ay 1
0ju
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sep
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v 10
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11m
ar 1
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ay 1
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sep
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v 11
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12m
ar 1
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ay 1
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sep
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v 12
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Current
Fast (1975 & 1982)
Slow (1991 & 2001 )
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100
105
110
115
120
125
ene
08m
ar 0
8m
ay 0
8ju
l 08
sep
08no
v 08
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09m
ar 0
9m
ay 0
9ju
l 09
sep
09no
v 09
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10m
ar 1
0m
ay 1
0ju
l 10
sep
10no
v 10
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11m
ar 1
1m
ay 1
1ju
l 11
sep
11no
v 11
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12m
ar 1
2m
ay 1
2ju
l 12
sep
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Consumption likely to continue to be sub par, <2%
8
U.S. Real Consumer Spending
Fast (1975 & 1982)
Current
Slow (1991 & 2001)
Source: ISI Group. January 2014
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9
Consumer confidence
Source: Haver Analytics, Fidelity Worldwide Investments. January 2014
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Consumer Confidence Differential (LHS) Unemployment Rate (RHS)
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US average hourly earnings growth
US average hourly earnings growth for private production/non-supervisory workers Y/Y%
Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics, CLSA. January 2014
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
2.2% in November
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Income inequality may be an obstacle to growth
11
Source: Emanuel Saez, ISI Group. 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1913
1916
1919
1922
1925
1928
1931
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Sha
re o
f tot
al in
com
e ac
crui
ng to
eac
h gr
oup
Top 1% income share-including capital gains Top 10-5% income share-including capital gains
Top 5-1% income share-including capital gains
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12
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
ene
06ab
r 06
jul 0
6oc
t 06
ene
07ab
r 07
jul 0
7oc
t 07
ene
08ab
r 08
jul 0
8oc
t 08
ene
09ab
r 09
jul 0
9oc
t 09
ene
10ab
r 10
jul 1
0oc
t 10
ene
11ab
r 11
jul 1
1oc
t 11
ene
12ab
r 12
jul 1
2oc
t 12
ene
13ab
r 13
jul 1
3oc
t 13
Trimmed Mean PCE Deflator Y/Y % Core PCE Deflator Y/Y %
Trimmed Mean 1.35% in November
Core 1.12% in November
QE has not generated an inflation problem
Source: ISI Group. January 2014
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Inflation unlikely to present an issue for at least 2 years
13
Source: US Federal Reserve, ISI Group.
Civilian unemployment rate Output gap
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Negative short rates until 2017
14
Source: US Federal Reserve, ISI Group.
Federal funds rate Core PCE inflation (4Q)
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4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
(1) Source: Haver Analytics, Strategas Research Partners. January 2014(2) Source: Strategas Research Partners. January 2014
Profit margins at historic highs
After-Tax Corporate Profits as a % of National Income(1)
LT Average = 7.2%
S&P 500 Net Margin (4Qtr Average)(2)
15
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
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S&P 500 trailing price/earnings with historical median
Source: Strategas, Standard & Poor's. January 2014
Median = 16.2
Very Overvalued
Overvalued
Bargains
Undervalued
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
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12m forward ROE
17
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
Jan 2012 May 2012 Sept 2012 Jan 2013 May 2013 Sept 2013 Jan 2014
Global Europe GEM US (RHS) Japan (RHS)
Source: Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse Research. January 2014
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Europe coming back European PMIs have turned up recently…and improvements have been broad-based
45.0
47.5
50.0
52.5
55.0
57.5
2011 2012 201334
38
42
46
50
54
58
62
10 11 12 13
Spain Italy France Germany
PMI Composite IndexEurozone: PMI Composite
Sources: Markit, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research. January 2014
Index Index
18
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European competitiveness improved relative to Germany
Source: Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse Research. January 2014
ECB - harmonised competitiveness indicators - ULC based, 2000=100
19
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Q12000
Q12001
Q12002
Q12003
Q12004
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
Germany, 87.6 Ireland, 111.8 Greece, 91.3 Spain, 101.0
Portugal, 100.7 Italy, 110.6 France, 106.9
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Peripheral European current account balance
Source: Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse Research. January 2014
20
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
jul-05sep-05nov-05ene-06mar-06may-06jul-06sep-06nov-06ene-07mar-07may-07jul-07sep-07nov-07ene-08mar-08may-08jul-08sep-08nov-08ene-09mar-09may-09jul-09sep-09nov-09ene-10mar-10may-10jul-10sep-10nov-10ene-11mar-11may-11jul-11sep-11nov-11ene-12mar-12may-12jul-12sep-12nov-12ene-13mar-13may-13jul-13sep-13
Peripheral European 5: 3-month annualized current account balance, % of GDP
1.8% in October
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Output gap
21
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
Eurozone Germany France Spain Italy
Source: ISI Group. January 2014
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De-leveraging continues
22
-3.50
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
ene 12 jul 12 ene 13 jul 13
-3.10%in November
Eurozone MFI LoansNon-Financial Corporations Adjusted for Loan Sales and Securitizations Y/Y%
Source: ISI Group. January 2014
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Monetary policy remains on a deflationary path
23
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
ene-12 jul-12 ene-13 jul-13
1.5% in November
Eurozone M3 Y/Y%
Source: ISI Group. January 2014
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Strong Euro exasperates deflationary trends
24
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
2010 2011 2012 2013
0.1% in September
Eurozone Exports % Contribution to GDP Growth Q/Q
Source: ISI Group. January 2014
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-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Inflation weakness in Eurozone
Eurozone CPIY/Y%
25
0.8% in December
Source: ISI Group. January 2014
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GEMs: in search for a new growth model
26
1990 – 1997: Washington Consensus
1997 – 2010: Export model & financial autarky
2010 onwards: Domestic demand & structural reforms
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48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
China svc PMI
54.6% in December
27
Source: ISI Group. January 2014
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
ene 13 feb 13 mar 13 abr 13 may 13 jun 13 jul 13 ago 13 sep 13 oct 13 nov 13 dic 13 ene 14
SHIBOR 1 month
Source: Bloomberg, Fidelity Worldwide Investments. January 2014
28
6.1% in January
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100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China: Debt to GDP
29
Source: Gavekal. January2014
203.8 in September
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Nominal GDP – Emerging Markets
Source: Haver Analytics, Fidelity Worldwide Investments. Nominal GDP in local currency, January 2014
30
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Q
2-19
97
Q3-
1998
Q4-
1999
Q1-
2001
Q2-
2002
Q3-
2003
Q4-
2004
Q1-
2006
Q2-
2007
Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q1-
2011
Q2-
2012
Q3-
2013
%
China Brazil India Mexico
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Conclusion
Equity friendly environment
US led bull market set to continue
European deflation threat
GEMs in search for a new growth model
31
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Compliance information
32
La presente comunicación no está dirigida a personas residentes en los Estados Unidos. Está únicamente dirigida a personas residentes en jurisdicciones en lascuales los fondos en cuestión estén autorizados para ser distribuidos o donde no se requiera la autorización y registro de los mismos. Fidelity/FIL es FIL Limited ysus respectivas subsidiarias y compañías afiliadas. A no ser que se establezca lo contrario, todas las opiniones recogidas son las de la organización Fidelity. Lasreferencias en este documento a determinados valores no deben interpretarse como una recomendación de compra o venta de los mismos, ya que se incluyenúnicamente a efectos ilustrativos. Los inversores deben tener en cuenta que las opiniones recogidas pueden haber dejado de tener vigencia y que Fidelity puedehaber actuado ya en consecuencia. Fidelity se limita a informar acerca de sus propios productos y servicios, y no presta asesoramiento de inversión basado encircunstancias individuales. Las rentabilidades pasadas no garantizan rentabilidades futuras. El valor de las inversiones puede fluctuar y el inversor puede norecuperar el importe invertido. Las inversiones denominadas en una moneda distinta a la moneda propia del inversor estarán sometidas a fluctuaciones de lostipos de cambio. Las transacciones de cambios de divisa son efectuadas a través de una compañía asociada de Fidelity al tipo de cambio en conjunción conotras transacciones por las cuales, la compañía asociada puede obtener un beneficio. Las inversiones en mercados pequeños y emergentes pueden ser másvolátiles que las inversiones en mercados más desarrollados. Fidelity Funds, Fidelity Funds II y Fidelity Active Strategy Fund son sociedades de inversióncolectiva de capital variable constituidas en Luxemburgo. Las entidades distribuidora y depositaria de Fidelity Funds, Fidelity Funds II y Fidelity Active StrategyFund son, respectivamente, FIL Investments International y Brown Brothers Harriman (Luxembourg) S.C.A. Fidelity Institutional Cash Fund Plc es una sociedadde inversión colectiva de capital variable constituida de acuerdo a las Leyes de Irlanda. El depositario de la sociedad es J.P. Morgan Bank (Ireland) plc. FidelityFunds, Fidelity Funds II, Fidelity Active Strategy Fund y Fidelity Institutional Cash Fund están inscritas para su comercialización en España en el registro deInstituciones de Inversión Colectiva Extranjeras de la CNMV con el número 124, 317, 649 y 403 respectivamente, donde puede obtenerse información detalladasobre sus entidades comercializadoras en España. Fidelity, Fidelity Worldwide Investment, el logo de Fidelity Worldwide Investment y el símbolo F son marcasregistradas de FIL Limited. Emitido por FIL (Luxembourg) S.A. CSS1694