Fertility decline in Uzbekistan:
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Fertility decline in Uzbekistan:persistent early motherhood during economic crisis
David Clifford, University of [email protected]
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Central Asia’s demographic interest
Muslim population invites comparisons with the demography of the Arab Middle East (Rashad 2000), or with Iran (Hakimian 2006)
Break-up of Soviet Union in 1991 Dramatic social, political and economic
changes Countries of FSU - ‘rich material’ for
examining the impact of these changes on fertility behaviour (Agadjanian 1999:426)
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Central Asia ‘neglected’ in fertility transition literature
(Barbieri et al. 1996:69, Agadjanian 1999)
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Post-socialist fertility change Have to rely on literature on C and E European experience
dramatic decreases in fertility (Sobotka 2004 Fig 7.1)
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How was this fertility decline achieved?
Sobotka (2004) – diversity of experience Central Europe:
• postponement; ‘ageing’ of fertility• Low TFR1• TFR decline largely driven by tempo effects
Ex-Soviet: • retained early pattern of first births • High TFR1, dramatic decline at higher orders (e.g.
Perelli-Harris 2005-Ukraine)• TFR decline reflects change in fertility quantum
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Reasons for decline?
Economic crisis vs. new opportunities/ values Sobotka (2004)-importance varies
C Europe- impact of new opportunities Post-Soviet –impact of economic crisis
Relationship between extent of crisis and extent of postponement: Severe crisis: ‘slower deconstruction of
socialist greenhouse environment’ (Sobotka 2002:61)
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Wages-postponement relationship (Sobotka 2004, Fig.7.11)
(Uzbekistan: 81.1% decline in real wages)
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TFR in Uzbekistan, 1990-2003Sources: UNICEF Transmonee,
ORC Macro
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Year
TFR
Survey estimates Official
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Economic Crisis in Uzbekistan
Source: UNICEF TransMonee
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
Inde
x va
lue
(198
9=10
0)
Real GDP growth Real wages
Source: UNICEF Transmonee
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post-Soviet Uzbekistan
Expectation of maintained early age pattern of births during fertility decline
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Data
Official fertility data unreliable Surveys most helpful Uzbekistan Health Examination Survey,
2002Part of Demographic and Health
Survey projectNationally Representative5588 women, aged 15-49
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Trends
I.e. maintenance of early childbearing.
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Med
ian
Age
at E
vent
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year
Median Age at First BirthMedian Age at First Marriage
Period: change in MAFM and MAFB
Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)
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010
020
030
0B
irths
per
1,0
00 w
omen
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44Age group
1991-93 1994-96
1997-99 2000-02
Period
Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)Period: Trends in ASFR
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Results
0
20
40
60
80
100
% M
arrie
d in
coh
ort
16 18 20 22 24Age in completed years
1973-77
1978-82 1968-72
1963-67
Birth cohorts
Cohort: Age at First Marriage Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)
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0
20
40
60
80
% G
iven
Birt
h in
Coh
ort
18 20 22 24 26Age in completed years
1973-77
1978-82 1968-72
1963-67
Birth cohorts
Cohort: Age at First Birth
Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)
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0
1
2
3C
hild
ren
ever
bor
n
20 22 24 26 28 30Age in completed years
1973-77
1978-82 1968-72
1963-67
Birth cohorts
Cohort: Cumulated fertility
Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)
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Economic crisis and fertility decline Economic crisis specifically reducing higher
order births in Uzbekistan
First order births not affected by postponement a strategy for uncertainty reduction? ‘impetus
for parenthood the greatest amongst those whose alternative pathways for reducing uncertainty are blocked’ - Friedman et al (1994)
Women with no prospect of pursuing education or employment may choose to have children early (Sobotka 2002, Perelli-Harris 2005)
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Too simplistic to consider economic crisis alone..
Conservative attitudes; re-emergence ofIslam?
May have role to play in persistence of early motherhood; less so in stopping behaviour
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An unfair comparison..?
..with post-socialist change in C and E Europe? At time of independence
C Asia –high fertility Vs C and E Europe - low fertility
Different culture, history, level of development
On the other hand, despite these differences.. post-Soviet countries have tended to maintain early age pattern
of first birth Well documented (Perelli-Harris 2005, Steshenko 2000 –
Ukraine, Bulgaru et al. 2000 – Moldova, Ivanov and Echenique (2000) – Russia)
Specifically those countries most affected by economic crisis
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Trends
I.e. maintanance of early childbearing.
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Med
ian
Age
at E
vent
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year
Median Age at First BirthMedian Age at First Marriage
Period: change in MAFM and MAFB
Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)
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MAFB in Central and Eastern Europe
FSU
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Just another developing country transition?
Not an unusual pattern of fertility decline Just another developing country experiencing
decline? Substantive reasons to doubt it, particularly 1990-7
lack of modernisation ‘Gendered’ post-socialist transition Declines in education
Mason (1997)- different fertility declines have different causes. Different stories of change
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References
Agadjanian, V (1999) Post-soviet demographic paradoxes: Ethnic differences in marriage and fertility in Kazakhstan. Sociological Forum. 14(3): 425-446.
Barbieri M, Blum A, Dolkigh E and Ergashev A (1996) Nuptiality, Fertility, Use of Contraception, and Family Policies in Uzbekistan Population Studies 50:69-88
Bulgaru M, Bulgaru O, Sobotka T and Zeman K. (2000). Past and present population development in the Republic of Moldova, in Kučera T, Kučerová O, Opara O and Schaich E (eds.) New Demographic Faces of Europe. Berlin: Springer, pp. 221-246.
Friedman, D, Hechter M, et al. (1994). A theory of the value of children Demography 31(3): 375-401.
Hakimian, H (2006) From Demographic Transition to Fertility Boom and Bust: Iran in the 1980s and 1990s. Development and Change 37(3): 571-597.
Ivanov, S and Echenique V (2000) Demographic Situation and Mortality Trends in Russia. in T. Kučera, O Kučerová, O Opara and E Schaich (eds). New demographic faces of Europe: the changing population dynamics in countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Springer.
Mason K O (1997) Explaining Fertility Transitions Demography 34(4):443-454Perelli-Harris (2005) The path to lowest-low fertility in Ukraine. Population Studies 59(1):55-70. Rashad, H (2000) Demographic Transition in Arab Countries: a New Perspective Journal of
Population Research 17(1): 83-101.Sobotka, T (2002) Ten years of rapid fertility changes in the European post-communist countries.
Population Research Centre Working Paper Series 02-01.Sobotka, T (2004) Postponement of childbearing and low fertility in Europe. Dutch University Press.UNICEF (2005) TransMONEE Database, UNICEF IRC, Florence.
e-mail: [email protected]
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How was this fertility decline achieved? ASFR, 1989 (Sobotka 2004 Fig. 7.4)
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How was this fertility decline achieved? ASFR, 2000 (Sobotka 2004 Fig. 7.4)