Fertility decline in Uzbekistan:persistent early motherhood during economic crisis

David Clifford, University of Southamptondmc104@soton.ac.uk

Central Asia’s demographic interest

Muslim population invites comparisons with the demography of the Arab Middle East (Rashad 2000), or with Iran (Hakimian 2006)

Break-up of Soviet Union in 1991 Dramatic social, political and economic

changes Countries of FSU - ‘rich material’ for

examining the impact of these changes on fertility behaviour (Agadjanian 1999:426)

Central Asia ‘neglected’ in fertility transition literature

(Barbieri et al. 1996:69, Agadjanian 1999)

Post-socialist fertility change Have to rely on literature on C and E European experience

dramatic decreases in fertility (Sobotka 2004 Fig 7.1)

How was this fertility decline achieved?

Sobotka (2004) – diversity of experience Central Europe:

• postponement; ‘ageing’ of fertility• Low TFR1• TFR decline largely driven by tempo effects

Ex-Soviet: • retained early pattern of first births • High TFR1, dramatic decline at higher orders (e.g.

Perelli-Harris 2005-Ukraine)• TFR decline reflects change in fertility quantum

Reasons for decline?

Economic crisis vs. new opportunities/ values Sobotka (2004)-importance varies

C Europe- impact of new opportunities Post-Soviet –impact of economic crisis

Relationship between extent of crisis and extent of postponement: Severe crisis: ‘slower deconstruction of

socialist greenhouse environment’ (Sobotka 2002:61)

Wages-postponement relationship (Sobotka 2004, Fig.7.11)

(Uzbekistan: 81.1% decline in real wages)

TFR in Uzbekistan, 1990-2003Sources: UNICEF Transmonee,

ORC Macro

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

TF

R

Survey estimates Official

Economic Crisis in Uzbekistan

Source: UNICEF TransMonee

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

Ind

ex v

alu

e (1

989=

100)

Real GDP growth Real wages

Source: UNICEF Transmonee

post-Soviet Uzbekistan

Expectation of maintained early age pattern of births during fertility decline

Data

Official fertility data unreliable Surveys most helpful Uzbekistan Health Examination Survey,

2002Part of Demographic and Health

Survey projectNationally Representative5588 women, aged 15-49

Trends

I.e. maintenance of early childbearing.

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

Me

dia

n A

ge a

t E

ven

t

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Median Age at First Birth

Median Age at First Marriage

Period: change in MAFM and MAFB

Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)

01

00

200

300

Bir

ths

per

1,0

00

wom

en

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44Age group

1991-93 1994-96

1997-99 2000-02

Period

Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)

Period: Trends in ASFR

Results

0

20

40

60

80

100

% M

arr

ied in

coh

ort

16 18 20 22 24Age in completed years

1973-77

1978-82 1968-72

1963-67

Birth cohorts

Cohort: Age at First Marriage Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)

0

20

40

60

80

% G

ive

n B

irth

in C

oho

rt

18 20 22 24 26Age in completed years

1973-77

1978-82 1968-72

1963-67

Birth cohorts

Cohort: Age at First Birth

Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)

0

1

2

3

Chi

ldre

n e

ver

bor

n

20 22 24 26 28 30Age in completed years

1973-77

1978-82 1968-72

1963-67

Birth cohorts

Cohort: Cumulated fertility

Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)

Economic crisis and fertility decline Economic crisis specifically reducing higher

order births in Uzbekistan

First order births not affected by postponement a strategy for uncertainty reduction? ‘impetus

for parenthood the greatest amongst those whose alternative pathways for reducing uncertainty are blocked’ - Friedman et al (1994)

Women with no prospect of pursuing education or employment may choose to have children early (Sobotka 2002, Perelli-Harris 2005)

Too simplistic to consider economic crisis alone..

Conservative attitudes; re-emergence of

Islam? May have role to play in persistence of early

motherhood; less so in stopping behaviour

An unfair comparison..?

..with post-socialist change in C and E Europe? At time of independence

C Asia –high fertility Vs C and E Europe - low fertility

Different culture, history, level of development

On the other hand, despite these differences.. post-Soviet countries have tended to maintain early age

pattern of first birth Well documented (Perelli-Harris 2005, Steshenko 2000 –

Ukraine, Bulgaru et al. 2000 – Moldova, Ivanov and Echenique (2000) – Russia)

Specifically those countries most affected by economic crisis

Trends

I.e. maintanance of early childbearing.

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

Me

dia

n A

ge a

t E

ven

t

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Median Age at First Birth

Median Age at First Marriage

Period: change in MAFM and MAFB

Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)

MAFB in Central and Eastern Europe

FSU

Just another developing country transition?

Not an unusual pattern of fertility decline Just another developing country experiencing

decline? Substantive reasons to doubt it, particularly 1990-7

lack of modernisation ‘Gendered’ post-socialist transition Declines in education

Mason (1997)- different fertility declines have different causes. Different stories of change

References

Agadjanian, V (1999) Post-soviet demographic paradoxes: Ethnic differences in marriage and fertility in Kazakhstan. Sociological Forum. 14(3): 425-446.

Barbieri M, Blum A, Dolkigh E and Ergashev A (1996) Nuptiality, Fertility, Use of Contraception, and Family Policies in Uzbekistan Population Studies 50:69-88

Bulgaru M, Bulgaru O, Sobotka T and Zeman K. (2000). Past and present population development in the Republic of Moldova, in Kučera T, Kučerová O, Opara O and Schaich E (eds.) New Demographic Faces of Europe. Berlin: Springer, pp. 221-246.

Friedman, D, Hechter M, et al. (1994). A theory of the value of children Demography 31(3): 375-401.

Hakimian, H (2006) From Demographic Transition to Fertility Boom and Bust: Iran in the 1980s and 1990s. Development and Change 37(3): 571-597.

Ivanov, S and Echenique V (2000) Demographic Situation and Mortality Trends in Russia. in T. Kučera, O Kučerová, O Opara and E Schaich (eds). New demographic faces of Europe: the changing population dynamics in countries of Central and Eastern Europe . Springer.

Mason K O (1997) Explaining Fertility Transitions Demography 34(4):443-454Perelli-Harris (2005) The path to lowest-low fertility in Ukraine. Population Studies 59(1):55-70. Rashad, H (2000) Demographic Transition in Arab Countries: a New Perspective Journal of

Population Research 17(1): 83-101.Sobotka, T (2002) Ten years of rapid fertility changes in the European post-communist countries.

Population Research Centre Working Paper Series 02-01.Sobotka, T (2004) Postponement of childbearing and low fertility in Europe. Dutch University Press.UNICEF (2005) TransMONEE Database, UNICEF IRC, Florence.

e-mail: dmc104@soton.ac.uk

How was this fertility decline achieved? ASFR, 1989 (Sobotka 2004 Fig. 7.4)

How was this fertility decline achieved? ASFR, 2000 (Sobotka 2004 Fig. 7.4)