February 2012 Employment Release

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February 2012 U.S. employment situation: Labor market coming back to life

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February 2012 Employment Release

Transcript of February 2012 Employment Release

Page 1: February 2012 Employment Release

February 2012 U.S. employment situation: Labor market coming back to life

Page 2: February 2012 Employment Release

733,000 jobs added over the last three months; unemployment rate stable at 8.3 percent in February

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Monthly employment changeUnemployment rate

Page 3: February 2012 Employment Release

Job growth positive for last 17 months

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics

220,000

121,000 120,000110,000

220,000

246,000 251,000

54,000

84,00096,000

85,000

202,000

112,000

157,000

223,000

284,000

227,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000Oc

t-10

Nov-1

0

Dec-1

1

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar-1

1

Apr-1

1

May-1

1

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug-

11

Sep-

11

Oct-1

1

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Total non-farm monthly employment change

Page 4: February 2012 Employment Release

92

94

96

98

100

102

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52

Number of months after start of recession

1973 1981 1990 2001 2007

Recessions:

Perce

nt

Past 40 years

However, we are still two to three “good” years away from “normal” and previous peak levels

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 5: February 2012 Employment Release

Jobs lost during recession…

Jobs gained during recovery…

Hiring is improving, yet only a third of jobs recovered from the recession so far

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 6: February 2012 Employment Release

-1,000

-800

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-200

0

200

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Change in '000s jobs

Private Sector Public Sector

Private sector hiring gaining momentum; public sector remains a drag

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Private sector hiring up 3.7 million since March 2010

Public sector shed 506,000 workers since March 2010

Page 7: February 2012 Employment Release

Job growth positive in both service industries (office jobs) and production industries

-1000

-800

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0

200

400

600

Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

Goods-producing Service-producing

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 8: February 2012 Employment Release

Office-using (PBS) jobs lost during recession…

Office-using (PBS) jobs gained during recovery…

Office-using job performance outweighing overall growth by considerable amount as productivity levels snap

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 9: February 2012 Employment Release

Where the jobs are coming from…PBS leads job growth in February, helping future office gains

-13-7.4

-6-6

-10

5.666

8.410.6

243131

4445.2

61.171

82

-20 0 20 40 60 80 100

ConstructionRetail trade

Other servicesGovernmentInformation

Nondurable goodsMotor vehicles and parts.

Mining and loggingFinancial activities

Wholesale tradeTransportation and warehousing

Goods-producingManufacturingDurable goods

Leisure and hospitalityTemporary help services

Health care and social assistanceEducation and health services

Professional and business services

February 2012 - One month net change (ths)Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 10: February 2012 Employment Release

PBS hiring continues to drive office job growth

-300

-250

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-100

-50

0

50

100

150

2009 2010 2011 2012

Information Professional and Business Services Financial Services

P&BS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010by February 2012, it represented 94.3 percent of office growth

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 11: February 2012 Employment Release

Temporary employment grew rapidly in February, an indicator of future office employment growth (this time around)…

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

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2009 2010 2011 2012

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ly ne

t cha

nge i

n job

s (ths

)

Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Temporary employment (ths)

Page 12: February 2012 Employment Release

Industry segmentation: It is all about jobs and tech and energy are kings

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

Page 13: February 2012 Employment Release

Energy, high-tech and office using sectors outperform overall economy since 2011

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Year over Year % change

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Note: Due to inconsistencies and data lags, January and February 2012 do not have all high-tech subsections aggregated.Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, economy.com

Page 14: February 2012 Employment Release

Initial unemployment insurance claims rose slightly March 3rd, yet still 10.6 percent lower than a year ago

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

1-Mar-08 1-Mar-09 1-Mar-10 1-Mar-11 1-Mar-12

Initial claims 4-week moving average

4 week moving average below 400,000 claims (consistently) means economy is adding jobs

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, US Department of Labor

Page 15: February 2012 Employment Release

Total unemployment beginning to decline, still well above long-term average

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total unemployment U-6 Ten year average

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 16: February 2012 Employment Release

0

2

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6

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college

White collar unemployment far below overall levels

4.2%

8.3%

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 17: February 2012 Employment Release

75.5

76

76.5

77

77.5

78

78.5

79

Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-1259

59.5

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61

61.5

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63

63.5College graduatesHigh school grads no college

Labor force participation for college grads improved in February, yet rates still low

College graduates High school graduates

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 18: February 2012 Employment Release

Bay Area2.6%

Tech, energy and Sunbelt markets leading metro markets in total non-farm employment

Houston3.0%

Tampa2.6%

Pittsburgh2.4%

Seattle2.3%

San Diego2.2%

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 19: February 2012 Employment Release

Philadelphia-0.2%

Larger Midwest and East coast markets lagging

Cleveland-0.2%

Atlanta0.0%

Chicago0.4%

DC0.4%

New York0.6%

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 20: February 2012 Employment Release

Atlanta

Boston

ChicagoDallas

DenverDetroit

Houston

Las Vegas

Los Angeles

Miami

New York

PhiladelphiaPhoenix

Pittsburgh

SF SeattleSt. Louis

DC

050

100150200250300350400450

2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00%

Regionally, the West and South will lead employment growth through 2014

Bubble size represents total employment

Adding jobs

Addi

ng jo

bs

Job growth Q1 2012-Q4 2014

% job growth

Numb

er of

jobs

(tho

usan

ds)

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Global Insight