FAOCGIARWMO A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to environmental stress. GECAFS Vision.

FAO CGIAR WMO

A food-secure future for

those most vulnerable to

environmental stress.

GECAFS Vision

• How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions?

• How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security?

• What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions?

Fundamental Questions

• Global Environmental Change

changes in the biogeophysical environment occurring naturally, or caused or strongly influenced by human activities.

• Food Systems

an interconnected set of researchable processes encompassing food access & availability.

• Food Security

a state or condition underpinned by food systems achieved when societies have year-round access to the necessary amount and variety of safe foods.

Key Terms

Global Environmental Change

Changes in the biophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities

Land cover & soils

Atmospheric composition

Climate variability & means

Water availability & quality

For example changes in:

Nitrogen availability & cycling

Biodiversity

Sea currents & salinity

Sea level

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production• Post-Harvest Handling

• Exchange & Trade

FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability• Preference

• Nutritional Value

Components of Food Systemsresearchable elements

To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of global environmental change on food systems

and to assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptive

responses aimed at improving food security.

GECAFS Vision and Goal

A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to environmental stress.

Achieving the Goal

1. Improve understanding of the interactions between food systems and key socioeconomic and biogeophysical components of the Earth System.

2. Deliver the new science necessary to assist policy formulation for improving food security in the face of GEC.

These are to be undertaken simultaneously

GECAFS Conceptual Framework

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks

Adaptation & Decision Support

1. Conceptual & Methodological Research

i. Food Systems Conceptsii. Vulnerability Conceptsiii. Scenario Constructioniv. Decision Support Systems

2. Food Systems Research in

i. Indo-Gangetic Plainii. Caribbeaniii. Southern Africa

Research Approaches

Develops a GEC science agenda that:

targets generic science issues

improves understanding of the interactions between the Earth System and Food Systems

integrates natural and social sciences

adds value to basic science by underpinning applied science

underpins regionally-based food systems research

Conceptual & Methodological Research

International networking approach Led by small, specialist committees

Coordinated by dedicated Science Officers Specific funding applications, mainly to science agencies

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems



Food Systems Conceptsresearch questions

1. What parameters describe food systems so as to facilitate GECAFS research?

2. Within given food systems, which parameters are most sensitive to GEC?

3. Who are the agents within each major food system, what are their roles, and how do they interact?

Components of Food Systemssome initial ideas

Five Major Food Systemsinitial typology

Food system

Main carbohydrate

Mainanimal protein

Example regions(FAO data)

i rice fish • Eastern IGP• South East Asia

ii maize meat • Southern Africa• Central America

iii roots & tubers fish • Central Africa• Caribbean (in part)

iv wheat meat • North Africa• West Asia

v mixed mixed • Caribbean (most)• OECD countries

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC)

Change in type, frequency & magnitude of

environmental stresses

Exposureto GEC

FOOD SYSTEMVULNERABILITY

“Traditional”approach to vulnerability

studies

Simulated maize yields: baseline and changes by 2055(from Jones & Thornton, CGIAR, 2001)

present 2055

™

GECAFSapproach to vulnerability

studiesGLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL

CHANGE (GEC)

Change in type, frequency & magnitude of

environmental stresses

FOOD SYSTEMVULNERABILITY/SECURITY

SOCIETAL CHANGE

Change in institutions, resource accessibility,

economic conditions, etc.

Capacity to Cope

&/or Recover from GEC

Exposureto GEC

Food Systems Vulnerabilityresearch questions

1. What are the dimensions of risk in vulnerable food systems?

2. What are the levels of present risks and how sensitive are they to present trends and future scenarios of vulnerability?

3. How do risks compare among vulnerable populations, between regions and from the local to regional scales?

Scenario DevelopmentBiophysical and socioeconomic factors, eg:

Climate, e.g. estimated 20-year return values for extreme minimum temperature

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Met Service of Canada

Estimated global water scarcity in 2050(from Wallace, 2000)

Regions are coded according to their per capita annual renewable freshwater resource (m3/person/year).

< 1000 1000 - 2000 > 2000



Population density in areas where the length of the growing period (LGP) is <90 days.

Index of human insecurity (IHI) values for 1995(from Lonergan et al., 2000)


1. What are the plausible future changes in environmental and socioeconomic conditions that will affect food systems?

2. What elements of global scenarios are most important for regional-level food system analyses?

3. What what are the best approaches for linking global scenarios to regional scale so as to capture regional-level factors relevant to food systems?

Scenario Developmentresearch questions

Decision Support Systems

Decision Support Systems development process

Users must:

• help define what goes into DSS

• help design the interface and information content

• play a major role in evaluating/refining DSS

• help develop educational materials for DSS

Must link closely with scenarios exercises

Decision Support Systemsresearch questions

1. What is the best way to determine the information needs of advisors to policymakers, resource managers and other stakeholders regarding GEC and food issues?

2. How can DSS best be developed to help analyse the socioeconomic and environmental tradeoffs of adaptation options?

3. What is the best methodological approach to DSS development to optimise communication with stakeholders?

Regional Food Systems Research

Develops a GEC science agenda that:

targets regional scientific issues

relates to regional development needs

interacts effectively with the regional policy making process

encourages more support for the regional science communities

provides contexts for conceptual research

Regional Food Systems Research

Regional studies approach Led by regional scientists assisted by GECAFS IPO

Specific funding applications, mainly to development agencies

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems



Principal Criteria:

• Range of GEC Issues

• Range of Food Systems

Other Criteria (alphabetically listed):

• links with other ESSP elements (e.g. Core Projects, other Joint Projects)

• links with strategic research partners (e.g. FAO, CGIAR)

• regional coordination/leadership

• results can contribute directly to regional development policy

Regional Food Systemsselection criteria

Caribbean Indo-Gangetic Plain

Southern Africa

Predominant Diet PatternMixed, mainly imported (majority)Roots/tubers & fish (sig. minority)

Key Policy IssuesFood security and self-sufficiencyTrade policies and competitivenessExporting quality produce & processed productsPoverty in rural communities

Main GEC IssuesClimate variability & extreme eventsWater availabilityLand degradationSea currents & salinityBiodiversity lossSea level

Main GEC Issues Climate variabilityGlacier and snow meltWater availability & qualityNitrogen availability & cyclingGHG emissions

Predominant Diet PatternRice & fish (east IGP)Wheat/rice & meat (west IGP)

Key Policy IssuesIncreased agric. productionLimiting env. degradationImproved socioecon. conditionsReduced labour migration

Main GEC IssuesClimate variability & ENSOClimate mean valuesWater availability & qualityLand degradationBiodiversity loss

Predominant Diet PatternMaize & meat (majority)Mixed (significant minority)

Key Policy IssuesFood security and self-sufficiencyRegional integration and tradeRural infrastructure and market accessDisaster response and “safety nets”

GECAFS Researchand the Indo-Gangetic Plain

Goal

To reduce the vulnerability of IGP food systems to GEC

by improving policy formulation capacity for water management

at national and regional levels.

Western Region (1, 2 & 3)

• high productivity – food surplus

• high investment in infrastructure

• major use of fertilisers and ground-water for irrigation

• in-migration of labour

Eastern Region (4 & 5)

• low productivity – food deficit

• poor infrastructure and low inputs of fertilizer and water

• high risk of flooding

• out-migration of labour

IGP General Characteristics

Population dependent on agriculture (%)

50

54

58

62

66

70

1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Year

Share of agriculture in GDP (%)

05

10152025303540

1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Year

Average size of holding (ha)

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Year

% of small and marginal farmers

505560657075808590

1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Year

Population dependent on agriculture (%)

50

54

58

62

66

70

1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Year

Share of agriculture in GDP (%)

05

10152025303540

1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Year

Average size of holding (ha)

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Year

% of small and marginal farmers

505560657075808590

1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Year

Change with time in the importance of agriculture in national GDP, population dependent on agriculture, number of small and marginal farmers, and the size of landholdings. Data is average for all India.

(Source: Indian Agricultural statistics. Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, 2002.)

Context

1966-671966-67 1996-971996-97

UnsustainableUnsustainableregionsregions

Rice

Wheat

Change in unsustainable area of rice and wheat in the Indian IGP as calculated by decline in the total factor productivity (TFP, a proxy of technological change).

(Source: Johansen et al., 2000).

Context

The IGP food system is both threatened by GEC and contributes to further GEC “forcing”.

In the face of increased climate variability, policy requirements are to develop strategies that:

a) sustain/boost agricultural production while limiting further environmental degradation

b) promote food systems which improve socioeconomic conditions for the more vulnerable

c) encourage reduced intra-regional labour migration

Research needs to recognise the marked socioeconomic and biophysical differences across the region.

Context

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

How would changed water management affect rural livelihoods, intra-regional

trade, GHG emissions and water tables?

How will climate variability affect change in water demand in IGP food systems?

What changes in water management (through policy instruments and/or agronomic practices) will reduce the vulnerability of IGP food systems to climate variability?

IGP Western RegionGeneral Questions

Specific Objectives

Improved assessment of the spatial and temporal vulnerability of food systems across the IGP.

Refined decision support systems to address stakeholder needs relating to potential policy and technical interventions.

Improved water governance from enhanced capacity of stakeholders to use different types of decision support systems.

1. Standard characterisation and classification of food systems and their water requirements: five case study sites.

2. Refined and improved Water Poverty Index methodology.

3. Initial assessments of vulnerability of the food systems in relation to water availability for the case study sites and the region.

Will build on regional research on: food production (RWC) diversification (IFAD & WB projects) policy reform in irrigation sector (IMWI)

GECAFS IGP Research ProductsStage I

4. Decision Support Systems for analysing socioeconomic and environmental consequences of alternative policies and water management technologies.

5. Analysis of socioeconomic and environmental tradeoffs of alternative water policy and technical options at national and regional levels.

GECAFS IGP Research ProductsStage II

Capacity building of regional stakeholders and scientists through collaborative analysis in both stages.

Participating Institutions

Bangladesh: Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad

India: Indian Council of Agricultural Research

Nepal: Nepal Water Conservation Foundation

Pakistan: Global Change Impact Studies Centre &

Pakistan Agricultural Research Council

UK: NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology

USA: University of Illinois

CGIAR: International Food Policy Research Institute

GECAFS International Project Coordination

GECAFS Researchin the Caribbean

Priority Policy Goals for CARICOM

• Food security

• Enhancing productivity and international competitiveness in agriculture

• Food safety

• Rural employment

• Sustainability of the food/agricultural sector and rural communities

How will GEC interact with these goals?

GECAFS Researchin the Caribbean

Caribbean ResearchRegional Characteristics

• Many small island states

• Diverse cultures, environments and food provision systems

• Great dependence on food imports (~ 80%)

• Reliance on export crops and tourism to provide revenue

• Susceptibility to weather extremes

• Susceptibility to changes in preferential export markets

• Weak regional-level institutional connectivity

Research needed at both “local” and “regional” levels

GECAFS Integration

Need to bring together the conceptual and food systems research so as to achieve the Project’s goal

Use GECAFS Conceptual Framework as basis

Cross-compare and analyse prototype methods in different regions

Phased conceptual and regionally-based research

Regional food systems research

Conceptual & methodological

research

I

II

III

Phase I: Preparation & Scoping => clear research goals

Phase II: Project start-up => assessment & synthesis of existing information

Phase III: Main analysis => science & policy contributions

Integration through phased conceptual and regionally-based research

Integration Implementation

Joint workshops and integration exercises

Funding from both aspects

Critical role of Science Officers

GECAFS Partnerships, Fundingand the Future

Principle 1

GECAFS research must concentrate on integrative issues of common interest to IGBP, IHDP and WCRP, and develop research questions where inter-disciplinarity is required.

GECAFS Design Principles

GECAFS Design Principles

Principle 2

GECAFS research must draw together and build on relevant aspects of each Programme’s Core Projects and, by linking these with appropriate inputs from other organisations, set these in a broader context of coupled human-environment systems.

NationalResearch

FAO SEI

MAWMO

CGIAR

CoreProjects

CoreProjects

CoreProjects

Research Relevance and Partnerships

Science

NaturalSocio-

economic

Science Agendas

Development Agendas


Science

NaturalSocio-

economic

Science Agendas

Development Agendas

Policy Makers

Resource Managers


Science

NaturalSocio-

economic

Science Agencies, e.g.:

• NERC

• NAS

• NOAA

• ICSU

Development Agencies, e.g.:

• USAID

• DFID

Ca. US$450k

GECAFS FundingPlanning and start-up funds 2002-03

• Gregory PJ et al. 2002. Global Environmental Change and Food Provision: A New Role for Science. Science for Sustainable Development 7, 16 p. ICSU Paris.

• Franklin S. 2004 Towards a narrative theory of climate change vulnerability. Ann Am Assoc Geog (submitted).

• Downing TD, et al. 2004. Vulnerability Method Briefs Series www.vulnerabilitynet.org.

• Aggarwal et al. 2004. Adapting Food Systems of the Indo-Gangetic Plains to Global Environmental Change: Key Information Needs to Improve Policy Formulation. Env Sci & Policy (in press)

• Policy Brief for CARICOM

• Ingram et al, 2004. GECAFS Science Plan & Implementation Strategy ESSP Series #2 (in prep)

Science and Policy Products

http://www.vulnerabilitynet.org/

• IPO funding secured from UK-NERC (2003-08)

• Vulnerability Research Science Officer funding secured from UK-ESRC (2004-06)

• DSS Research Science Officer funding secured from USDA (2004-06)

• Application to APN for GECAFS research in IGP

• Application to USAID for GECAFS research in Caribbean

• Workshop on Food Systems definitions, UK, Oct 04

• Research scoping workshop for Southern Africa, late 04

GECAFS Forward look

• A robust framework for novel, interdisciplinary approaches to GEC research that examines vulnerability to impacts, adaptations and feedbacks.

Summary 1

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems



• A problem-oriented, policy-relevant approach which can bring together the GEC and Development agendas, and their donor communities.

Summary 2

Science Agendas

Development Agendas

Policy Makers

Resource Managers

Science

NaturalSocio-

economic

• A design for analyses at regional and sub-regional levels which will help develop effective policy to protect vulnerable sections of society.

Summary 3

• A methodology which allows an analysis of trade-offs between managing resources for both food security and environment.

Summary 4

www.gecafs.org

Getting involved

• Disciplinary research develops with IGBP, IHDP & WCRP Core Projects

• Interdisciplinary research develops in GECAFS in

Conceptual research networks

Regional food systems research

FAOCGIARWMO A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to environmental stress. GECAFS Vision.

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