Fall TV ShowDown:Using Social Data to Predict This Season’s TV Hits

Jim Reynoldsjimmyrey@gmail.comTwitter.com/jimmyrey

Monitoring the buzz around the new shows from ABC, CBS, CW, FOX, FX, NBC & HBO

Analysis Setup

Details:• Keywords for Top Fall shows• SM2 Category Rules for Topic• All Languages

• Location Limited to US• 10 Weeks of Data

Analysis:

• Conversation primarily driven by other media types (CW community + friendfeed + delicious)

• Early spikes resulting from summer previews of fall shows

• Major spike on 9/7 focused on the premiere of Terriers on FX

• Major spike on 9/8 – 9/9 focused on the premiere of Nikita/Hellcats

Daily Volume

Trend Analysis

Analysis:

1. S#*! My Dad Says 18%2. Hawaii 5-0 18%3. Nikita - 14%4. Hellcats - 13%5. Boardwalk Empire - 8%6. No Ordinary Family - 5%7. Terriers – 4.6%8. Undercovers – 4.4%9. Outsourced – 4.2%10. Blue Bloods – 4.2%11. My Generation – 4.1%12. Running Wilde – 3%

Share of Voice: Ranking The New Shows

Trend Analysis

Trend Analysis

Analysis:• No Ordinary Family & My

Generation are trending at a similar pace

• Audience is 65% male • Sentiment is split nearly

50/50

Trend Analysis

Analysis:• S#*! My Dad Says had an

early lead but late in July Hawaii 5-0 took off, while Blue Bloods remained a distant third

• Audience is 55% male • Sentiment is generally

positive**Sentiment Dictionary was modified for “SH*T my dad says”

Trend Analysis

Analysis:• Hellcats has the lead but

Nikita just behind• Audience is 52% male –

48% female• Sentiment is predominately

positive with a large increase around the premiere’s

Trend Analysis

Analysis:• Terriers dominates Running

Wilde• Audience is 65% male • Sentiment is slightly more

positive than negative

Trend Analysis

Analysis:• Boardwalk Empire has

maintained consistent buzz that is slowly building before the premiere

• Audience is 75% male • Boardwalk has the highest

percentage of positive conversations among all shows

Trend Analysis

Analysis:• Undercovers has a slight

lead due to an early spike, but Outsouced has taken the lead since

• Audience is 65% male • Sentiment is primarily

negative with the conversation focused on Outsourced

Predictions• Based on buzz alone, CBS seems to have a great shot at

maintaining its leadership in prime-time television with consistently high ratings

• HBO’s Boardwalk Empire has garnered the most positive sentiment

• Based on the pre-premiere buzz, Running Wilde (FOX) and Outsourced (NBC) appear to have the highest chance to sink to the bottom