Fall 2013 Lecture 5: Chapter 5 Statistical Analysis of Data …yes the “S” word.
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Transcript of Fall 2013 Lecture 5: Chapter 5 Statistical Analysis of Data …yes the “S” word.
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Fall 2013 Lecture 5: Chapter 5
Statistical Analysis of Data
…yes the “S” word
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What is a Statistic???? What is a Statistic????
Population
Sample
SampleSample
Sample
Parameter: value that describes a population
Statistic: a value that describes a sample PSYCH always using samples!!!
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Descriptive & Inferential Descriptive & Inferential StatisticsStatisticsDescriptive StatisticsDescriptive Statistics
• OrganizeOrganize
• SummarizeSummarize
• SimplifySimplify
• Presentation of dataPresentation of data
Inferential StatisticsInferential Statistics •Generalize from Generalize from samples to popssamples to pops•Hypothesis testingHypothesis testing•Relationships Relationships among variables among variables
Describing data Make predictionsMake predictions
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Descriptive Descriptive StatisticsStatistics
3 Types
1. Frequency Distributions 3. Summary Stats
2. Graphical Representations
# of Ss that fallin a particular category
Describe data in just one number
Graphs & Tables
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1. Frequency Distributions
# of Ss that fallin a particular category
How many males and how many females are in our class?
Frequency(%)
? ?
?/tot x 100 ?/tot x 100
-----% ------%
total
scale of measurement?
nominal
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1. Frequency Distributions
# of Ss that fallin a particular category
Categorize on the basis of more that one variable at same timeCROSS-TABULATION
Democrats
Republican
total
24 1 25
19 6 25
Total 43 7 50
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1. Frequency Distributions
How many brothers & sisters do you have?
# of bros & sis Frequency
7 ?6 ?5 ?4 ?3 ?2 ?1 ?0 ?
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2. Graphical Representations
Graphs & Tables
Bar graph (ratio data - quantitative)
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Histogram of the categorical variables
2. Graphical Representations
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Polygon - Line Graph
2. Graphical Representations
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2. Graphical Representations
Graphs & TablesGraphs & Tables
How many brothers & sisters do you have? Lets plot class data: HISTOGRAM
# of bros & sis Frequency
7 ?6 ?5 ?4 ?3 ?2 ?1 ?0 ?
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Altman, D. G et al. BMJ 1995;310:298
Central Limit Theorem: the larger the sample size, the closer a distribution will approximate the normal distribution or
A distribution of scores taken at random from any distribution will tend to form a normal curve
jagged
smooth
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2.5% 2.5%
5% region of rejection of null hypothesisNon directional
Two Tail
body temperature, shoe sizes, diameters of trees,Wt, height etc…
IQ
68%
95%
13.5%13.5%
Normal Distribution: half the scores above mean…half below(symmetrical)
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Summary Statisticsdescribe data in just 2 numbers
Measures of central tendency• typical average score
Measures of variability• typical average variation
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Measures of Central Tendency
• Quantitative data:– Mode – the most frequently occurring
observation– Median – the middle value in the data (50
50 ) – Mean – arithmetic average
• Qualitative data:– Mode – always appropriate– Mean – never appropriate
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Mean
• The most common and most useful average
• Mean = sum of all observations number of all observations
• Observations can be added in any order.
• Sample vs population• Sample mean = X
• Population mean =• Summation sign = • Sample size = n• Population size = N
Notation
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Special Property of the MeanBalance Point
• The sum of all observations expressed as positive and negative deviations from the mean always equals zero!!!!– The mean is the single point of equilibrium
(balance) in a data set
• The mean is affected by all values in the data set– If you change a single value, the mean
changes.
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The mean is the single point of equilibrium (balance) in a data set
SEE FOR YOURSELF!!! Lets do the Math
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Summary Statisticsdescribe data in just 2 numbers
Measures of central tendency• typical average score
Measures of variability• typical average variation 1. range: distance from the
lowest to the highest (use 2 data points)
2. Variance: (use all data points)3. Standard Deviation4. Standard Error of the Mean
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Descriptive & Inferential Descriptive & Inferential StatisticsStatisticsDescriptive StatisticsDescriptive Statistics
• OrganizeOrganize
• SummarizeSummarize
• SimplifySimplify
• Presentation of dataPresentation of data
Inferential StatisticsInferential Statistics •Generalize from Generalize from samples to popssamples to pops•Hypothesis testingHypothesis testing•Relationships Relationships among variables among variables
Describing data Make predictionsMake predictions
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Measures of Variability
2. Variance: (use all data points):
average of the distance that each score is from the mean (Squared deviation from the mean)
otation for variances2
3. Standard Deviation= SD= s2
4. Standard Error of the mean = SEM = SD/ n
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Inferential Statistics
Population
Sample
Draw inferences about the larger group
Sample
Sample
Sample
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Sampling Error: variability among samples due to chance vs population
Or true differences? Are just due to
sampling error?Probability…..
Error…misleading…not a mistake
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Probability•Numerical indication of how likely it is that a given event will occur (General Defi nition)“hum…what’s the probability it will rain?”
•Statistical probability:
the odds that what we observed in the sample did not occur because of error (random and/ or systematic)“hum…what’s the probability that my results are not just due to chance”
•I n other words, the probability associated with a statistic is the level of confi dence we have that the sample group that we measured actually represents the total population
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Chain of Reasoning forInferential Statistics
PopulationSample
Inference
Selection
Measure
Probability
data
Are our inferences valid?…Best we can do is to calculate probability about inferences
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Inferential Statistics: uses sample data to evaluate the credibility of a hypothesis about a population
NULL Hypothesis:
NULL (nullus - latin): “not any” no differences between means
H0 : 1 = 2
“H- Naught”Always testing the null hypothesis
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Inferential statistics: uses sample data to evaluate the credibility of a hypothesis about a population
Hypothesis: Scientific or alternativehypothesis
Predicts that there are differences between the groups
H1 : 1 = 2
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HypothesisA statement about what findings are expected
null hypothesis
"the two groups will not differ“
alternative hypothesis
"group A will do better than group B""group A and B will not perform the same"
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Inferential Statistics
When making comparisons btw 2 sample means there are 2
possibilities
Null hypothesis is true
Null hypothesis is false
Not reject the Null HypothesisReject the Null
hypothesis
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Possible Outcomes inHypothesis Testing (Decision)
Null is True Null is False
Accept
Reject
CorrectDecision
CorrectDecisionError
Error
Type I Error
Type II Error
Type I Error: Rejecting a True HypothesisType II Error: Accepting a False Hypothesis
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Hypothesis Testing - Decision
Decision Right or Wrong?
But we can know the probability of being right or wrong
Can specify and control the probability of making TYPE I of TYPE II Error
Try to keep it small…
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ALPHA
the probability of making a type I error depends on the criterion you use to accept or reject the null hypothesis = significance level (smaller you make alpha, the less likely you are to commit error) 0.05 (5 chances in 100 that the difference observed was really due to sampling error – 5% of the time a type I error will occur)
Possible Outcomes inHypothesis Testing
Null is True Null is False
Accept
Reject
CorrectDecision
CorrectDecisionError
Error
Type I Error
Type II Error
Alpha (
Difference observed is really just sampling error
The prob. of type one error
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When we do statistical analysis… if alpha (p value- significance level) greater than 0.05
WE ACCEPT THE NULL HYPOTHESIS
is equal to or less that 0.05 we
REJECT THE NULL (difference btw means)
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2.5% 2.5%
5% region of rejection of null hypothesisNon directional
Two Tail
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5%
5% region of rejection of null hypothesisDirectional
One Tail
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BETAProbability of making type II error occurs when we fail to reject the Null when we should have
Possible Outcomes inHypothesis Testing
Null is True Null is False
Accept
Reject
CorrectDecision
CorrectDecisionError
Error
Type I Error
Type II Error
Beta (
Difference observed is realFailed to reject the Null
POWER: ability to reduce type II error
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POWER: ability to reduce type II error(1-Beta) – Power Analysis
The power to find an effect if an effect is present
1. Increase our n
2. Decrease variability
3. More precise measurements
Effect Size: measure of the size of the difference between means attributed to the treatment
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Inferential statistics
Significance testing:
Practical vs statistical significance
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Inferential statisticsUsed for Testing for Mean Differences
T-test: when experiments include only 2 groups
a. Independent b. Correlated i. Within-subjects
ii. Matched
Based on the t statistic (critical values) based on
df & alpha level
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Inferential statisticsUsed for Testing for Mean Differences
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA): used when comparing more than 2 groups
1. Between Subjects 2. Within Subjects – repeated measures
Based on the f statistic (critical values) based on
df & alpha level
More than one IV = factorial (iv=factors)Only one IV=one-way anova
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Inferential statistics
Meta-Analysis:
Allows for statistical averaging of results
From independent studies of the samephenomenon