FAITH-BASED REASONING & THE GLOBAL WARMING DEBATE

FAITH-BASED REASONING

& THE GLOBAL WARMING

DEBATE

Katherine K. Hirschboeck, PhDLaboratory of Tree-Ring Research

University of Arizona

OUTLINE

• The Title

• The Debate

• Scientific Background

• Addressing the Questions

• Faith-Based Reasoning . . . . another perspective

Scientific American editorial:THE TITLE:

http://www.sciam.com/2001/0601issue/0601rennie.html

The New York Times 2-14-02 article by Andrew C.Revkin “Bush Plan Expected to Slow, Not Halt, Gas Emission Rise”

Philip E. Clapp, president of the National Environmental Trust, a private lobbying group, criticized this approach, saying:

"The president's global warming proposal appears to be another faith-based initiative: we should have faith that major corporations will line up to volunteer cuts in their carbon pollution. That approach has failed for a decade now, since the president's father set up the first voluntary program."

Bush announcing newClimate Plan 2-14-2002

OUTLINE

• The Title

• The Debate




THE DEBATE QUESTIONS(actually several debates)

(1) Are Greenhouse Gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere increasing due to anthropogenic sources?

(2) Is the Earth’s Temperature Increasing?

(3) Is there a cause and effect relationship between (1) and (2) above?

(4) What are the projections for the future & the consequences of global warming?

(5) What can/should be done about the problem?

OUTLINE

• The Title

• The Debate




SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND

• The Radiation / Energy Balance

• The Greenhouse Effect & Greenhouse Gases (GHG)

• The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

• The Climate System

• Detection & Attribution of Change

• Consequences & Impacts

ENERGY BALANCE DIAGRAM

R = (Q + q)(1- a ) - Lu + Ld = H + LE + G

The Electro-

magnetic Spectrum

Longwaves (LW)

Shortwaves (SW)

Solar short waves ultraviolet (UV), visible

Terrestrial long waves infrared (IR)

[Not to scale]

ATMOSPHERE

Gas molecules, dust, aerosols

Clouds

SW BEAMED DIRECTLY TO EARTH’SSURFACE WHERE IT IS ABSORBED:

Direct solar radiation

SOLAR SHORTWAVE (mostly ultraviolet, visible)

SW REFLECTED BACK TO SPACE:

By clouds

By Earth’s surface

“Albedo”

SW SCATTERED BACK TO SPACE BY ATMOSPHERE:

By dust, aerosols, (e.g. from industrial & volcanic emissions), gas molecules, etc.

SW SCATTERED DOWN TO EARTH’s SURFACE where it is absorbed

Diffuse solar radiation (reaches the surface)

SW ABSORBED IN ATMOSPHERE

BY GASES, DUST, etc.

Absorbed before it ever reaches the surface, e.g. ultraviolet (UV) rays absorbed by stratospheric ozone gas molecules

SW ABSORBED In ATMOSPHERE BY CLOUDS &

H2O vapor:

Clouds can both reflect and absorb solar radiation:

low level clouds tend to reflect more

LW (IR) EMITTED FROM EARTH’S

SURFACE ESCAPING TO

SPACE THROUGH THE “OUTGOING ATMOSPHERIC

WINDOW”

TERRESTRIAL LONGWAVES infrared (IR)

not absorbed by the atmosphere

IR EMITTED FROM EARTH’S SURFACE BUT ABSORBED IN THE ATMOSPHERE BY GREENHOUSE

GASES

Greenhouse gas (def) =

any gas that absorbs infrared (IR) radiation

in the atmosphere

IR EMITTED FROM

ATMOSPHERE ESCAPING TO

SPACE

IR energy eventually lost to space after being absorbed by atmosphere

IR EMITTED FROM

ATMOSPHERE AND RADIATED

BACK TO SURFACE

WHERE IT IS ABSORBED

Principal cause of global warming IR radiated back to surface to be absorbed again

All together now:

The Greenhouse

Effect

= thermals + evapotranspiration + storage

[DRIVES WEATHER & CLIMATE PRCESSES]

+ 100%- 30 %

- 70 %

ENERGY BALANCE

Radiative Forcing (def)

A change in the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation.

= in balance

Without any radiative forcing, solar radiation coming to the Earth would continue to be approximately equal to the infrared radiation emitted from the Earth.

The addition of GREENHOUSE GASES traps an increased fraction of the infrared radiation, radiating it back toward the surface and creating a warming influence

= a positive (+) radiative forcing

(because incoming solar radiation will exceed outgoing infrared radiation)

= out of balance

COMPONENTS OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM

Multiple Natural & Anthropogenic Forcings

FEEDBACK MECHANISM (def)

Climate feedback =

An atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial, or other process that is activated by climate changes induced by changes in radiative forcing.

Climate feedbacks may increase (+ positive feedback) or diminish (- negative feedback) the magnitude of the direct climate change.

A mechanism that connects one aspect of a system to another. The connection can be either amplifying (+ positive feedback) or moderating / self-regulating (- negative feedback).

Earth heats up Earth radiates more LW out

Earth cools down again -

Earth heats up snow and ice melt earlier, glaciers diminish

surface reflectivity (albedo) decreases more Solar SW gets absorbed Earth heats up MORE +

A Negative Climate Feedback (self regulating)

A Positive Climate Feedback (amplifying)

MULTIPLE FEEDBACKS

(e.g., snow / ice, water vapor, clouds, etc.)

Detection & Attribution of Change

Data & Tools Used:

• Instrumental measurements

• Determining past (paleo) climate from natural archives (e.g. tree rings, ice cores)

• Remote sensing of the environment

• Modeling

CLIMATE CHANGES OF THE PAST via TREE RINGS & other PROXY Records

• Calibration of “proxy” record with instrumental climate record

• Statistical reconstructions of past temperature and precipitation values

• CONVERGENCE of evidence from multiple proxy sources

REMOTE SENSING OF THE ENVIRONMENT

MODEL RESULTS & PROJECTIONS

Latitude-Longitude grid for a typical atmospheric general circulation model (GCM)

OUTLINE

• The Title

• The Debate




Greenhouse Gas (def)

Any gas that absorbs infrared (IR) radiation in the atmosphere.

Greenhouse gases include:

• water vapor (H2O)

• carbon dioxide (CO2)

• methane (CH4)

• nitrous oxide (N2O)

• ozone (O3)

• other trace gases such as CFCs, halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), & hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Data from ice cores

Are the GHG’s increasing due to human activities?

Carbon Dioxide

CO2

CO2 concentrations are rising at an increasing rate; since the Industrial Revolution, higher than any period during the last 10,000 years. More abundant now than at any time during the 400,000 year ice core record

Methane CH4

Nitrous Oxide N2O

More abundant now than at any time during the 400,000 year ice core record

Concentration has increased ~ 13% in past 200 years.

The contribution from each of the human-made GHG’s to the change in “radiative forcing” (e.g., to warming) from 1980 to 1990. (Based on model results)

GHG’s have different radiative forcing contributions due to their IR absorption properties, relative concentration, and residence times in the atmosphere

Anthropogenically Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

= out of balance

The most comprehensive source of information on Global Climate Change -- the IPCC

• The role of the IPCC is to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change.

• It does not carry out new research nor does it monitor climate related data.

• It bases its assessment mainly on published and peer-reviewed scientific technical literature.

Working Group I -- assesses the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change.

Working Group II -- addresses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to it.

Working Group III -- assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating climate change.

[The Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories -- oversees the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Program]

The IPCC has three working groups and a Task Force:

IPCC’s “CLIMATE CHANGE 2001” Reports

“Climate change” in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.

• 122 Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors

• 515 Contributing Authors

• 21 Review Editors

• 420 Expert Reviewers

http://www.ipcc.ch/

Some of the evidence for an observed change in temperature summarized in the IPCC reports:

= warming

= cooling

Gray = error bars Black line = smoothed

trend

In 1978, the Qori Kalis Glacier looked like this, flowing out from the Quelccaya Ice Cap in the Peruvian Andes Mountains.

In 2000, the view of Qori Kalis has changed dramatically with a massive 10-acre lake forming at the ice margin.

Disappearing tropical glaciers: the “canary in the coal mine”

WARMEST DECADE of the millennium was the 1990s researchers now say with a fairly high degree of confidence, based on direct and indirect temperature readings (red).

Scientists also say with the same degree of confidence that CO2 levels (measured in ice cores) are the highest in 20 million years. (blue)

GHG forcing

synonyms UNCERTAINTY, SKEPTICISM, mean lack of sureness about someone or something.

UNCERTAINTY may range from a falling short of certainty to an almost complete lack of conviction or knowledge especially about an outcome or result <assumed the role of manager without hesitation or uncertainty>.

SKEPTICISM implies unwillingness to believe without conclusive evidence <an economic forecast greeted with skepticism>.

Source: Merriam-Webster Collegiate Dictionary

SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY

http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=skepticism+

Global Warming Skeptics

http://www.oism.org/pproject/

Satellite measurements of air temperature differ somewhat from Earth surface measurements

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2000/ast21jul_1m.htm

UNIQUE FEATURE OF IPCC 2001 REPORTS:

Judgmental estimates of confidence in the report’s results / conclusions:

• virtually certain (greater than 99% chance that a result is true)

• very likely (90-99% chance);

• likely (66-90% chance);

• medium likelihood (33-66% chance);

• unlikely (10-33% chance);

• very unlikely (1-10% chance);

• exceptionally unlikely (less than 1% chance).

INERTIA in the CLIMATE SYSTEM:

• Benefits to agriculture & forestry in the near term due to CO2 “fertilization” effect

• Possible droughts in semi-arid regions, Great Plains

• Reduction in water supply in western U.S., where dependent on amount of snow pack & timing of spring runoff

• Higher sea levels could make coastal regions more vulnerable to flooding and storm damage

• Ecosystems may be greatly affected

LIKELY CONSEQUENCES / IMPACTS:

CO2 Production Scenarios

Resulting Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations for scenarios a,b,c, & d

a. Drops immediately to 0

b. Decreases by 2% / yr

c. Remains constant

d. Increase continues “business as usual”

ab

dBased on 1990 start

c

National Academy of Sciences panel study, 2001

“Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions”

USA votes “no” to Kyoto protocol-based climate treaty, 2001

Panel study in response to a written request by White House to the National Academy of Sciences for:

“assistance in identifying the areas in the science of climate change where there are the greatest certainties and uncertainties” . . . and . . . “ views on whether there are any substantive differences between the IPCC Reports and the IPCC summaries [ for policy makers ].”http://books.nap.edu/html/climatechange/

The panel conclusions:

• GHG are accumulating in the Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities . . . .

• We cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes are also a reflection of natural variability. . . .

• . . . because there is considerable uncertainty in current understanding of how the climate system varies naturally and reacts to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, current estimates of the magnitude of future warming should be regarded as tentative and subject to future adjustments (either upward or downward). . . ."

• While the full implications of climate change remain unknown, the panel "generally agrees with the assessment of human-caused change presented in the IPCC Working Group I scientific report."

National Academy of Science Report

Reduce greenhouse gas “intensity” by 18% over next decade (= volume of GHG emissions / gross domestic product)

inducements instead of requirements; tax breaks; prospect of a future emissions credits to encourage industry and individuals to voluntarily reduce emissions

Feb 14, 2002

IPCC Scientific Convergence / Consensus U.S. Policy Response

OUTLINE

• The Title

• The Debate




http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/attitude_study.html

American Geophysical Union

(AGU) study in 1998

“Our research suggests that there are a number of reasons why people may be stuck:

1. Most people do not really understand global warming.

2. No accepted source of information.

“Clearly the scientific community has not conveyed a sense of unanimity on the subject of global warming. As a result of the fact that they have not heard a clear scientific voice on this subject, people turn to anecdotal and impressionistic evidence as to whether there is such a thing as global warming.”

3. The real cause is human greed.

“The biggest factor that derails any kind of consensus about dealing with global warming is the analysis that people have of the underlying cause of global warming. While our focus group respondents tended to say that global warming is caused by deforestation and pollution, they were also quick to point out that the underlying cause is human greed and moral corruption. Moreover, they believed that, as far as these factors are concerned, "the toothpaste is out of the tube," and we are unlikely to reverse these trends in the near future.”

AGU STUDY CONCLUSIONS “public paralysis & frustration”

“When thinking about global warming, in other words, our respondents typically saw it as being driven by humans who are unwilling to do the right thing, that is a seemingly irreversible deterioration in moral values.

What they said, over and over again, was that people have become more self-centered, greedy and materialistic, and as a result, the society is inevitably pushed toward more consumption, which in turn causes more pollution and exacerbates the trend toward global warming.”


“Our respondents, then, seemed to have hit a wall. They said they care deeply about global warming, but their concern did not translate into any forward motion.

As they thought about the problem, they seemed to run into brick walls, characterized by lack of clear knowledge, seemingly irreversible causes, and a problem with no real solution.

As a result they were frustrated and eager for a solution but unsure of which way to go. “


http://www.usccb.org/sdwp/international/globalclimate.htm

“As people of faith, we are convinced that "the earth is the Lord's and all it holds" (Ps 24:1). . . . We believe our response to global climate change should be a sign of our respect for God's creation.

We enter this debate not to embrace a particular treaty, nor to urge particular technical solutions, but to call for a different kind of national discussion. Much of the debate on global climate change seems polarized and partisan.

Science is too often used as a weapon, not as a source of wisdom.

Various interests use the airwaves and political process to minimize or exaggerate the challenges we face.

The search for the common good and the voices of poor people and poor countries sometimes are neglected.”

“At its core, global climate change is not about economic theory or political platforms, nor about partisan advantage or interest group pressures. It is about the future of God's creation and the one human family.

The dialogue and our response to the challenge of climate change must be rooted in the virtue of prudence . . . . Although debate continues about the extent and impact of this warming, it could be quite serious . . . . Consequently, it seems prudent not only to continue to research and monitor this phenomenon, but to take steps now to mitigate possible negative effects in the future.

Stewardship “United States bears a special responsibility in its stewardship “

Scientific Knowledge and the Virtue of Prudence

“The virtue of prudence is paramount in addressing climate change.“

“ Prudence is not, as popularly thought, simply a cautious and safe approach to decisions. . . . it is a thoughtful, deliberate, and reasoned basis for taking or avoiding action to achieve a moral good.

• intelligence applied to our actions.

• aids in the shaping of the community's conscience.

• moves us to adopt courses of action to protect the common good

Climate Change and Catholic Social Teaching

• The Universal Common Good

• Stewardship of God's Creation and the Right to Economic Initiative and Private Property

• Protecting the Environment for Future Generations

• Population and Authentic Development

• Caring for the Poor and Issues of Equity

The Public Policy Debate and Future Directions

“Catholic social teaching calls for bold and generous action on behalf of the common good.”

"Interdependence," as Pope John Paul II has written, "must be transformed into solidarity. . . . Surmounting every type of imperialism and determination to preserve their own hegemony, the stronger and richer nations must have a sense of moral responsibility for the other nations, so that a real international system may be established which will rest on the foundation of the equality of all peoples and on the necessary respect for their legitimate differences.“

Pastoral Constitution on the Church in the Modern World (Gaudium et Spes), no. 39

Finally, we wish to emphasize the need for personal conversion and responsibility:

• Choices and lifestyles

• Reexamine a culture that prizes the consumption of material goods.

• Conserve energy, prevent pollution, and live more simply

“In [the] spirit of praise and thanksgiving to God for the wonders of creation, we Catholic bishops call for a civil dialogue and prudent and constructive action to protect God's precious gift of the earth's atmosphere with a sense of genuine solidarity and justice for all God's children.”

UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF WARMING

FAITH (def)

1 a : allegiance to duty or a person : LOYALTY 1 b (1) : fidelity to one's promises (2) : sincerity of intentions

2 a (1) : belief and trust in and loyalty to God (2) : belief in the traditional doctrines of a religion

2 b (1) : firm belief in something for which there is no proof (2) : complete trust

3 : something that is believed especially with strong conviction; especially : a system of religious beliefs


http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=loyalty

Synonyms: BELIEF, FAITH, CREDENCE, mean assent to the truth of something offered for acceptance.

BELIEF may or may not imply certitude in the believer <my belief that I had caught all the errors>.

FAITH almost always implies certitude even where there is no evidence or proof <an unshakable faith in God>.

CREDENCE suggests intellectual assent without implying anything about grounds for assent <a theory now given credence by scientists>.


http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=credence+

• As an act of solidarity . . . the United States should lead the developed nations in . . . the sustainable economic development of poorer nations & help build their capacity to ease climate change.

• Since our country's involvement is key . . . we call on our people and government to recognize the seriousness of the global warming threat & to develop effective policies that will diminish the possible consequences of global climate change

• We also hope that the United States will continue to undertake reasonable and effective initiatives for energy conservation and the development of alternate renewable and clean-energy resources. . . . Our hope is that these technologies along with other resources can be shared with developing countries.

• Within the United States, public policy should assist industrial sectors and workers especially impacted by climate change policies, & it should offer incentives to corporations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and assistance to workers affected by these policies.

THE UNKNOWNS IN GLOBAL WARMING RESEARCH DON'T HAVE TO BE SHOWSTOPPERS

Scientific American October 2001

”Denying uncertainty makes life so much easier, as many have discovered when it comes to climate change. Between skeptics' insistence that global warming is just hot air and radical environmentalists' advice to start selling the beachfront property, responses to climate change tend to be predicated on claims of absolute knowledge. Who wants to deal with the messy reality? There is plenty of evidence that temperatures are rising and will continue to do so but lots of uncertainty about the details and amount of future change. The good news is that politicians are finally confronting the messiness. . . .

The bad news is that uncertainty still paralyzes discussion, especially in the U.S. Scientists naturally generate a range of results. Not all of these results are equally likely to be true, and none is definitive, but people tend to latch onto those that suit their preconceptions. “

http://www.sciam.com/2001/1001issue/1001scicit1.html

• Anthropogenic GHG’s are increasing (except for CFCs)

• Other anthropogenic emissions (aerosols, CO, black carbon soot) are also affecting climate w/ + and – forcings

• GHG removal times/residence times vary from 10 yrs (CH4) to > 100 yrs (CO2) to > 1000 yrs (PFCs)

• Global mean surface air temperature has warmed between 0.4 – 0.8 °C (0.7-1.5 °F) in 20th century; temporal irregularities and surface vs. troposphere disparities have occurred and are not completely understood.

• Most of the observed warming of the last 50 yrs is likely to have been due to the increase in GHG concentrations (IPCC)

National Academy of Science Study Summary:

• Over the next 100 yrs, scenarios indicated that globally average surface temperatures will increase in the range of 1.4 – 5.8 ° C (2.5 – 10.4 ° F) relative to 1990.

• Predicted warming is larger over higher latitudes, esp. during winter & spring.

• Rainfall rates & frequency of heavy precipitation events are predicted to increase, esp over high latitudes

• Higher evaporation rates will accelerate drying of soils, lower relative humidities, and higher daytime temperatures, esp. in warm season

• Water vapor and ice-albedo feedback processes will amplify the simulated GHG forcing by a factor of 2.5

• Uncertainties remain on cloud feedback response

• IPCC reports & Summaries for Policy Makers – slight difference in emphasis in WG II & III reports

National Academy of Science Study Summary

FAITH-BASED REASONING & THE GLOBAL WARMING DEBATE

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