Failure-Resilient Design of Complex Systems Under Uncertainty...Limited to aleatory uncertainty!!...

National Science Foundation Industry/University Cooperative Research Center for e-Design!

!Principal Investigators: Irem Tumer, Christopher Hoyle!

Failure-Resilient Design of Complex Systems Under Uncertainty"

Design Optimization!

Strategic Planning Meeting – July 31-Aug 1 2013!

National Science Foundation Industry/University Cooperative Research Center for e-Design!National Science Foundation Industry/University Cooperative Research Center for e-Design!

Problem Statement"

Distributed Complex Systems are Vulnerable to Cascading Failure from External Events Why is failure resilience important in complex systems? §  Environmental uncertainty can

cause performance variability §  Initiating faults can lead to

uncontrollable failure propagation §  Complex systems must still function

in a degraded state


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Approach & method"§  Investigate distributed complex system

design trades, and identify system attribute relationships •  E.g., Key performance trade offs

§  Characterize the reliability behavior of distributed networks in terms of quantifying failure rates •  E.g., Power grids, communication

networks

§  Formulate a robust optimization approach to network design capturing system topology •  Quantify trade offs between

performance and robustness


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Total Annual Cost

Total Energy

Environmental Impact

1.00E7

7.67E7

5.31E7

2.95E6

3.00E10

1.50E10

2.02E7

5.86E5 6.26E7

2.63E8 4.63E8

6.64E8 8.64E8

4.50E10

5.99E10


Current state of practice & research"

§  Limited topological robustness measures

§  Limited to aleatory uncertainty §  Limited ability to simulate

cascading failure in distributed complex systems


Chen, W., 2012, "Design Under Uncertainty,” Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.

There is a wide breadth of complex system optimization literature, however:


Deliverables & benefits"

Provide a novel robust approach to distributed network design §  Mitigate effect of failure by optimizing for both performance

and variability of the “degraded” system §  Address the cascading failures in a given system topology §  Compare the robust design to the existing (deterministic) design

to understand the effects of uncertainties


Robust Design Deterministic Optimization


Project plan"§  Year 1: •  Review State of the Art •  Identify distributed network design trades •  Characterize failure behavior of distributed networks

§  Year 2: •  Formulate robust design approach •  Apply approach to power grid or other case study


2012 2013 2014 2015

Literature Survey

Network Design Trades

Failure Behavior

Robust Design Approach

Case Study


How ours is different"

Currently, there is a lack of theory for the robust design of distributed complex engineered systems, vulnerable to cascading failures: §  Our approach considers both the topological network

robustness and the robustness to environment; §  We model the cascading behavior of faults; §  The approach is scalable to arbitrary size systems.



Industrial relevance"

This approach will minimize the effects of failure, allowing systems to operate in an acceptable degraded state. Application to many system types, such as power grids, communication systems, transportation networks.


Failure-Resilient Design of Complex Systems Under Uncertainty...Limited to aleatory uncertainty!!...

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