Ezra Holdings 3QFY13 Results 20130715

7/28/2019 Ezra Holdings 3QFY13 Results 20130715

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See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems EFATM Platform 1

Company Update, 15 July 2013

Ezra Holdings (EZRA SP) Sell (from Neutral)Industrial - Transportation Target Price: SGD0.70

Market Cap: USD739m Price: SGD0.96

Subsea Loss-Making In 3QFY13

Macro

Risks

Growth

Value

74

84

94

104

114

124

134

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

Ezra Holdings (EZRA SP)

Price Close Relat ive to Strai ts Times Index (RHS)

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jul-12

S

ep-12

N

ov-12

J

an-13

M

ar-13

M

ay-13

Volm

Source: Bloomberg

Avg Turnover (SGD/USD) 4.75m/3.80m

Cons. Upside (%) 11.5

Upside (%) -26.7

52-wk Price low/high (SGD) 0.91 - 1.35

Free float (%) 60

Shareholders (%)

Lionel Lee 22.7

Aker Solutions 7.4

Mondrian Investment 7.3

Shariah compliant

Jason Saw +65 6232 3871

[email protected]

Lee Yue Jer +65 6232 3898

[email protected]

Forecasts and Valuations Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13F Aug-14F Aug-15F

Total turnover (USDm) 559 984 1,197 1,498 1,699

Reported net profit (USDm) 40.1 65.0 34.4 37.4 64.1

Recurring net profit (USDm) 26.0 4.4 (61.5) 37.4 64.1

Recurring net profit growth (%) (54.0) (83.0) (1493.0) na 71.2

Core EPS (USD) 0.03 0.00 (0.06) 0.04 0.07

DPS (USD) 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6

Core P/E (x) 22 158 na 20 12

Return on average equity (%) 5.6 7.0 3.3 3.5 5.6

P/B (x) 0.77 0.73 0.70 0.67 0.63

P/CF (x) na na 22.8 80.8 11.7EV/EBITDA (x) 12.7 16.7 32.3 12.4 10.1

Net debt to equity (%) 96.3 110.3 92.6 95.7 92.5

Our vs consensus EPS (%) 780.6 (49.0) (44.9)

Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates

Ezra reported a core net loss of USD52m, although a USD59m one-offgain from Ezion shares sale boosted its headline net profit to USD7.2m.Following the poor results, we slash our FY14-15F core EPS estimatesby 12%-24% on lower margins. The groups continued inability todeliver earnings, weak cash generation and industry-wide projectdelays could add further strain on its balance sheet. Downgrade to

SELL, with our TP lowered to SGD0.70 (from SGD1.15 previously).

USD52m core net loss below expectations. Excluding a USD59m gainfrom one-off items, 3QFY13 core net loss of USD52m was below ourand consensus expectations. 3QFY13 revenue rose 19% y-o-y and 28%q-o-q to USD317m on higher subsea and marine revenue, but blendedgross profit margin was disappointing at 0.7% (3QFY12: 16.7%).Significant one-off items were: i) a USD67.4m gain from Ezion sharessale, ii) a USD4.5m gain from derivative financial instruments, iii) aUSD7.2m loss from fixed assets sale, and iv) a USD5.2m net forex loss.

Subsea loss-making; management change in offshore. 3QFY13operating EBITDA came in at -USD24.3m, while 9MFY13 operatingEBITDA was USD29.2m vs our pre-revision estimate of USD143m . Thesubsea division posted negative mid-teen margin in 3QFY13, while the

offshore unit recorded a 17%-18% gross margin. Ezra reshuffled the topmanagement team in its offshore division.

More contracts. Ezra secured USD505m new contracts for the subseaand offshore subseaservices (OSS) units. YTD FY13, EMAS AMC hassecured USD1.4bn orders and >USD2.5bn since the AMC acquisition inMarch 2011. Currently, Ezra has a USD2bn orderbook backlog.

FY13F to remain in core net loss; FY14-15F EPS cut by 12%-24%.We cut FY13F earnings from a core net profit (after preferred dividend)of USD19m to a core net loss of USD61m. We also lower FY14-15F corenet profit from USD49m/USD73m to USD37.6m/USD64.6m.

Downgrade to SELL, with a lower SGD0.70 TP, pegged to 0.5x FY14F

P/BV. Our target P/BV is justified by its poor ROE of


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Ezra Holdings(EZRA SP)15 July 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

Financial Summary

Figure 1: Quarterly financial summary

FYE 31 Aug (USDm) 3QFY12 2QFY13 3QFY13 QoQ % YoY % 9MFY12 9MFY13 YoY % Remarks

Revenue 265.6 247.1 317.1 28 19 657.9 842.9 28 Higher from subsea

(+USD39.3m), marine

(+USD12.9m) but offset by

lower offshore (-USD0.7m)

Gross profit 44.4 42.3 2.2 113.4 94.4 -17 Negative mid-teen margin

from subsea. Offshore

recorded 17-18% GP margin

Other income 26.4 34.4 63.5 67.9 104.2 54 Boosted by sale of Ezion

shares. See exceptional

breakdown below.

Admin expenses -34.0 -35.1 -44.1 -92.4 -115.1 25 Higher due to higher

personnel expenses and

subsea infra build-up to

prepare for new projects.

Operating profit 36.8 41.6 21.6 88.9 83.6 -6

Operating EBITDA 24.5 22.6 -24.3 -207 -199 58.0 29.2 -50

Depreciation and amortisation -13.0 -14.1 -13.0 -33.6 -41.5 24

Depreciation of PPE -11.0 -13.3 -13.4 -31.5 -40.3 28

Amortisation of intangible -2.0 -0.8 0.4 -2.2 -1.2 -43

Operating EBIT 11.5 8.5 -37.3 -538 -424 24.4 -12.4 -151

Financial income 1.0 1.2 1.2 2.4 3.8 58

Financial expenses -9.9 -10.5 -12.2 -27.3 -33.2 22

Share of results of associates -0.3 7.3 4.2 2.5 13.4 442

Share of results of joint venture 0.6 0.8 1.5 2.1 3.0 43

Exceptional gains 25.2 33.1 58.9 64.5 95.9 49

Gain on disposal of AFS investments 0.0 0.0 67.4 34.8 67.4

Gain on disposal of PPE 0.0 30.0 0.0 1.1 30.0

Gain on dilution of interest in associate 4.9 2.0 -0.1 4.9 2.0

Gain on disposal of subsidiary 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2

Realised gain on derivative financial instruments, net 0.4 -0.1 4.5 0.5 4.3

Gain/loss on disposal of assets held for sale 0.0 0.0 -7.2 0.0 -3.4

Fair value changes of derivative instruments 12.8 0.0 0.0 7.6 0.6

Fair value changes of FVTPL -0.6 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.1

Net forex gain 7.7 1.1 -5.9 15.7 -5.1

Profit before tax 28.2 40.4 16.4 -59 -42 68.5 70.6 3

Income tax -5.8 -7.4 -6.7 -10.9 -20.0 84 Mainly withholding taxes

Minority interest 0.0 -3.3 -2.5 0.1 -6.9 -10,152

Net profit 22.4 29.7 7.2 -76 -68 57.7 43.6 -24 Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates

Other takeaways from the results:

Weak margins from poor subsea execution and idle vessels. Ezrasgrossprofit margin came in at 0.7%. 9MFY13 gross margin was 11.2%. Subsea wasloss-making with negative mid-teen gross margin. Its offshore unit achieved a17%-18% gross margin as profitability was hampered by eight idle vessels. Sixof those vessels are now deployed while two vessels remain idle.

Securing USD505m new contracts. These projects include: i) a letter of intentfor a USD120m project in offshore West Africa using Lewek Constellation andLewek Express, ii) a USD105m contract to support a deepwater project in WestAfrica, iii) USD53m contracts in the Gulf of Mexico, iv) USD102m charteringcontracts for one platform supply vessel (PSV) and four anchor handling towingand supply (AHTS) vessels, and v) a USD126m project from an oil major in theNorth Sea. Ezras total backlog orderbook currently stands at USD2bn.

The groups capex has trended down, with USD150m outstanding forLewek Constellation, which is expected to be fully operational in 1Q2015. Inbetween the transit from Xiamen to the Netherlands, Lewek Constellation willundertake a short-term job in Africa to test the capability of the vessel.

Tender book now in excess of USD10bn. Ezras project sizes are gettingbigger from USD50m-USD100m to USD200m per project. In the subseaconstruction, umbilicals, risers and flowlines (SURF) business, project value cango up to USD500m-USD1bn.


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Figure 2: Quarterly revenue Figure 3: Quarterly gross profit

180.5

211.8

265.6

326.3

278.7

247.1

317.1

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13

USDm

34.7 34.3

44.4

72.9

49.9

42.3

2.2

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0


USDm

Source: Company data Source: Company data

Figure 4: Quarterly operating EBITDA Figure 5: Quarterly gross profit margins

19.5

14.0

24.5

47.5

30.9

22.6

-24.3-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0


USDm

19.2%

16.2% 16.7%

22.3%

17.9%17.1%

0.7%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%


Gross margins (%)

Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates Source: Company data


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Earnings: Expect Core Net Loss In FY13; Slashing FY14-15F EPS By12%-24%

Figure 6: Changes in estimates

Profit and loss (US$m) Old

FYE08/13F

Old

FYE08/14F

Old

FYE08/15F

New

FYE08/13F

New

FYE08/14F

New

FYE08/15F

Revenue 1,207.0 1,412.4 1,522.8 1,197.2 1,498.0 1,699.4

Offshore support vessels 316.8 334.3 341.0 287.3 332.7 339.4

Marine services 173.1 181.8 181.8 165.3 160.0 160.0

Subsea 717.1 896.4 1,000.0 744.7 1,005.3 1,200.0

COGS -960.0 -1,113.4 -1,187.4 -1,044.2 -1,231.0 -1,389.6

Gross profit 247.1 299.0 335.4 153.0 267.0 309.8

Offshore support vessels 78.5 87.8 94.5 53.7 79.0 80.6

Marine services 29.4 30.9 30.9 29.7 27.2 27.2

Subsea 129.1 170.3 200.0 59.6 150.8 192.0

Others 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0

Other income, net 77.0 41.3 41.3 107.2 11.3 11.3

Admin expenses -169.0 -183.6 -190.3 -167.6 -179.8 -186.9

Operating profit (reported) 155.0 156.7 186.3 92.6 98.5 134.1

Operating EBITDA 143.5 181.0 212.2 50.9 152.8 190.0

Depreciation and amortisation -55.4 -55.6 -57.1 -55.4 -55.6 -57.1

Depreciation -51.0 -51.2 -52.7 -51.0 -51.2 -52.7

Amortisation -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4

Operating EBIT 88.1 125.4 155.1 -4.6 97.2 132.9

Investment income 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Interest income 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.5

Interest expense -47.3 -47.3 -46.4 -43.6 -48.9 -50.9

Share of profit from associates 5.0 5.0 5.0 18.0 20.0 20.0

Share of profit from JVs 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

Exceptional 65.7 30.0 30.0 95.9 0.0 0.0

Profit before tax 120.1 121.8 152.2 74.6 77.3 110.6Income tax -16.9 -24.4 -30.4 -21.7 -21.5 -28.1

Minority interest -7.9 -7.9 -7.9 -7.9 -7.9 -7.9

Net profit 95.3 89.5 113.8 44.9 47.9 74.6

Preferred dividends -10.5 -10.5 -10.5 -10.5 -10.5 -10.5

Net profit to ord equity 84.8 79.0 103.3 34.4 37.4 64.1

Net profit (pre-exceptional and pre-preferred div) 29.6 59.5 83.8 -51.0 47.9 74.6

Core net profit after preferred dividend 19.1 49.0 73.3 -61.5 37.4 64.1

Source: OSK-DMG estimates


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Valuation: Downgrade To SELL with SGD0.70 TPOur TP is pegged to 0.5x FY14 P/BV. We believe the stock could trade below itslowest P/BV of 0.57x on poor earnings and rising balance sheet risk. At our lowerSGD0.70 TP, the stock is trading at 14.6x FY14F core net profit after preferreddividend.

Figure 7: Price-to-book band

0.30

0.50

0.70

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

P/B (x)

Source: Bloomberg, OSK-DMG estimates


6/10



Financial Exhibits

Profit & Loss (USDm) Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13F Aug-14F Aug-15F

Total turnover 559 984 1,197 1,498 1,699

Cost of sales (445) (798) (1,044) (1,231) (1,390)

Gross profit 114 186 153 267 310

Gen & admin expenses (71) (135) (168) (180) (187)

Other operating costs 13 (5) 15 10 10

Operating profit 56 46 1 97 133

Operating EBITDA 85 96 56 153 190

Depreciation of fixed assets (26) (45) (51) (51) (53)

Amortisation of intangible assets (3) (4) (4) (4) (4)

Operating EBIT 56 46 1 97 133

Net income from investments 13 5 23 25 25

Interest income 2 4 4 4 3

Interest expense (27) (38) (44) (49) (51)

Exchange gains (10) 10 (5) - -

Other non-recurring income 14 61 96 - -

Pre-tax profit 49 87 75 77 111

Taxation (9) (22) (22) (21) (28)Minority interests 0 0 (8) (8) (8)

Profit after tax & minorities 40 65 45 48 75

Preferred dividends - - (11) (11) (11)

Reported net profit 40 65 34 37 64

Recurring net profit 26 4 (62) 37 64


Cash flow (USDm) Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13F Aug-14F Aug-15F

Operating profit 56 46 1 97 133

Depreciation & amortisation 29 50 55 56 57

Change in working capital (19) (324) (28) (90) (64)

Other operating cash flow (80) 206 67 13 13Operating cash flow (14) (22) 94 76 139

Interest received 2 4 4 4 3

Interest paid (27) (38) (44) (49) (51)

Dividends received 0 1 - - -

Tax paid (12) (12) (22) (21) (28)

Cash flow from operations (51) (67) 32 9 63

Capex (414) (289) (250) (100) (100)

Other new investments - 42 71 - -

Other investing cash flow 79 (20) 46 - -

Cash flow from investing activities (335) (267) (133) (100) (100)

Dividends paid (9) - - - -

Proceeds from issue of shares - 95 - - -

Increase in debt 452 246 - 80 30

Other financing cash flow (138) 4 120 - -

Ca sh flow from fina ncing activitie s 305 344 120 80 30

Cash at beginning of period 187 116 133 153 142

Total cash generated (81) 10 19 (11) (7)

Forex effects 3 (0) - - -

Implied cash at end of period 109 126 153 142 135



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Financial Exhibits

Balance Sheet (USDm) Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13F Aug-14F Aug-15F

Total cash and equivalents 116 133 153 142 135

Inventories 60 89 115 144 163

Accounts receivable 302 439 574 718 815

Other current assets 177 391 332 344 352

Total current assets 655 1,053 1,173 1,348 1,465

Total investments 311 219 162 186 210

Tangible fixed assets 960 1,079 1,222 1,215 1,206

Intangible assets 172 226 221 217 213

Total other assets 52 153 209 264 321

Total non-current assets 1,495 1,677 1,814 1,883 1,950

Total assets 2,149 2,730 2,987 3,230 3,414

Short-term debt 294 607 436 464 474

Accounts payable 71 120 148 185 210

Other current liabilities 260 299 356 426 473

Total current liabilities 625 1,026 939 1,075 1,157

Total long-term debt 516 510 681 733 752

Other liabilities 162 186 186 186 186Total non-current liabilities 678 696 867 919 938

Total liabilities 1,303 1,722 1,806 1,993 2,095

Share capital 395 490 490 490 490

Retained earnings reserve 450 518 563 611 686

Shareholders' equity 845 1,008 1,053 1,101 1,176

Minority interests 1 (0) 8 16 24

Other equity (0) 0 120 120 120

Total equity 846 1,008 1,181 1,237 1,319

Total liabilities & equity 2,149 2,730 2,987 3,230 3,414


Key Ratios (USD) Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13F Aug-14F Aug-15FRevenue growth (%) 58.1 76.0 21.6 25.1 13.4

Operating profit growth (%) 1.3 (18.5) (98.7) 16830.7 36.6

Net profit growth (%) (47.8) 62.3 (47.0) 8.6 71.2

EPS growth (%) (54.7) 34.7 (50.0) 8.6 71.2

Bv per share growth (%) 9.0 5.9 4.5 4.6 6.8

Operating margin (%) 10.1 4.7 0.0 6.5 7.8

Net profit margin (%) 7.2 6.6 2.9 2.5 3.8

Return on average assets (%) 2.2 2.7 1.2 1.2 1.9

Return on average equity (%) 5.6 7.0 3.3 3.5 5.6

Net debt to equity (%) 96.3 110.3 92.6 95.7 92.5

DPS 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Recurrent cash flow per share (0.07) (0.07) 0.03 0.01 0.06



8/10



SWOT Analysis

One of the largest Asian-based offshore serviceproviders with key expertise in the deep water market.

Operates a strong fleet of project-enabling assetssuch as the Lewek Connector and BOA Sub C.

Global operations in five continents.

Establishedcompetitors arebiddingaggressively fornew projects.

Delays inproject couldhamper fleetutilisation.

Well-positionedto capture therising spendingin the subseamarket.

Weak balance sheet may deter EMAS AMC fromtaking on large subsea EPCC contracts.

Cabotage ruling in certain countries may affect OSVcharter contracts

Tight technical workforce could drive up wages.

-80%

-48%

-16%

16%

48%

80%

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

P/E (x) vs EPS growth

P/E (x) (lh s) EPS gro wth (rhs)

0%

1%

3%

4%

5%

7%

8%

9%

11%

12%

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

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0.70

0.80

0.90

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

P/BV (x) vs ROAE

P/B ( x) ( lhs) Return on average equi ty (r hs)

Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates

Company ProfileEzra is a leading offshore contractor and provider of integrated offshore solutions for the oil & gas industry with a global presence,having 16 offices in five continents. The subsea business, its largest business unit, contributed 57% of group revenue in FY13, followedby 28% from the offshore support services division.


9/10



Recommendation Chart

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

Jul-08 Oct-09 Jan-11 May-12

Price Close

NR

2.9

1

2.9

6

2.8

0

2.5

4

2.2

0

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1.8

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1.4

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1.0

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1.1

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Recommendations & Target Price

Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Prof it Not Rated

Source: OSK-DMG estimates, Bloomberg

Date Recommendation Target Price Price

2013-05-31 Neutral 1.15 0.98

2013-05-20 Neutral 1.15 1.02

2013-01-15 Neutral 1.15 1.21

2012-11-08 Neutral 1.15 1.10

2012-10-29 Neutral 1.15 1.14

2012-10-16 Neutral 1.14 1.20

2012-04-13 Neutral 1.10 1.14

2012-03-12 Neutral 1.18 1.12

2012-02-29 Neutral 1.18 1.25

2012-01-12 Neutral 0.92 0.95

Source : OSK-DMG estimates, Bloomberg


10/10

10

DMG & Partners Research Guide to Investment Ratings

Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 monthsTrading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertainNeutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 monthsTake Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levelsSell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 monthsNot Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage

DISCLAIMERS

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The information contained herein has been obtained from sources we believed to be reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty noraccept any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and views expressed in this report are subject to changewithout notice.

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As of 14 July 2013, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries, including DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd, do not have proprietary positionsin the subject companies, except for:a) -

As of 14 July 2013, none of the analysts who covered the stock in this report has an interest in the subject companies covered in this report, except for:a) -

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Ezra Holdings 3QFY13 Results 20130715

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Transcript of Ezra Holdings 3QFY13 Results 20130715