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Extrusion Process & Market Overview Process Optimization Pre-Work October 25-26, 2016
Transcript of Extrusion Process & Market Overview - c.ymcdn.comc.ymcdn.com/sites/ Process & Market Overview ......
Extrusion Process & Market Overview
Process Optimization Pre-Work October 25-26, 2016
Process Optimization Workshop: Pre-Workshop Overview • Process Overview
– The making of aluminum; the 5 steps in the aluminum cycle
– Follow the metal through the Process Optimization Workshop
• Market Overview
– Where are we in “the recovery”
– What’s driving volumes
– Implications of key segments
• Automotive
• Building & Construction
• Solar
• LED Lighting
Today’s Agenda
2
Process Optimization Workshop: Pre-Workshop Overview • Process Overview
– The making of aluminum; the 5 steps in the aluminum cycle
– Follow the metal through the Process Optimization Workshop
• Market Overview
– Where are we in “the recovery”
– What’s driving volumes
– Implications of key segments
• Automotive
• Building & Construction
• Solar
• LED Lighting
Today’s Agenda
M-1
The historically volatile NA market is recovering from the global recession, with shipments YTD +2%
Source: The Aluminum Association, CC analysis
The Market
M-2
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
00
0 M
T
NA Extrusion Consumption
- 9% vs. ‘06 peak
+48% vs. ‘09 trough
Yet recovery remains inconsistent across the markets
Source: The Aluminum Association, CC analysis
The Market
M-3
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
Consumption: 2015 vs. 2006 peak, mm#
-9%
-5%
31%
-21% -12%
47%
-20%
Transport and Electrical & Energy applications have increased in importance, and Transport may soon surpass B&C
Structural or Cyclical Shift?
The Market
M-4
0 10 20 30 40 50
Machinery
Electrical &Energy
Consumer
Transport
Construction
%
Market by End Use Sector
2015
2010
2006Structural Shift?
The Market
M-5
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
2012 2013 2014 2015 F-1502015
Extrusion*/Vehicle
*Lb
s es
tim
ated
Source: The Aluminum Association, CC analysis
It’s not all Ford!
Extrusion use in light vehicles has accelerated …
The Market
Type Example 2012 2017 2025
Shapes Interiors, Seats, Trim,
Sunroof, Others 1 1.2 2
Shapes Exterior 3 3.2 4
Shapes Bumpers 4 5.5 6
Shapes Body Structures 1 4 17
Shapes Steering & Brakes 3 3 4
Tube Drive Shafts 1 1 1
Rod & Bar Transmission 4.5 4.5 4.5
Shapes Mounts 1.5 2 2.5
Tube Heat Exchangers 5.3 5.3 5.5
Shapes Suspension / Links /
Chassis 1 2 3
Total 25.3 31.7 49.5
Source: Ducker Worldwide, CC Analysis
Aluminum Extrusion Pounds per Vehicle
* Increase from ‘17 to ‘25, based on 18 mm vehicle build rate
Incr. in #/yr* %
15mm 67%
15mm 25%
9mm 9%
234mm 325%
18mm 33%
9mm 25%
18mm 50%
318mm 56%
… as projected by Ducker Worldwide
M-6
The Market
Usage in Electrical has been driven in part by Alternative Energy development …
Source: AEC, AA CC analysis
0
50
100
150
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Estimated Alternative Energy Extrusion Consumption
MM
#
M-7
… and by conversion to LED lighting
• Automotive: substantial growth … and high demands
• Increasing focus on sustainability in B&C … and beyond
• Solar & LED lighting … growth, with cost, tolerance and profile challenges
Implications of key segments
M-8
M-9
Implications: Automotive
Implications: • Alloys: 6082, ? • Tolerances: Tighter • Cost: Reduction, Neutrality,
Justification • Joining: 140 flowdrill screws, 70
Tox clinches, extensive SPRs, 100 meters of structural adhesive
2015 Ford F-150 • 700 # weight reduction • 50+ # 6xxx extrusion/truck
Steel frame
Aluminum Skin
Extruded Structure
M-10
Currently, a multitude of different alloys are being utilized for a host of
various automotive components
Implications: Automotive
Implications: Automotive
Case Example: Lincoln MKZ
Panoramic Retractable Roof
• 10,000 per year target
• Evolved from Roof Module for Ford
Edge
• Existing design in steel, 28 parts,
stamping intensive, requiring high
investment
M-11
Objectives:
• Cost neutral
• 25% weight reduction
• Part count reduction for reduced
labor cost
Approach & Results
• 6 pieces only – 2 extrusions + 4
small aluminum stampings
• 20% weight savings
• Cost neutral with investment
reduction for volume
• 22 piece part reduction; reduced
labor cost
Implications: Automotive
M-12 Note: “industry standard tolerances” won’t cut it!
Implications: Automotive
M-13
“The only way for Jaguar Land Rover to meet fuel-economy goals with its big cars
and SUVs is to make them as light as small cars, says Mark White, the man in charge
of JLR’s vehicle bodies.
… that means switching materials from steel to aluminum, and the new Range Rover
Sport is the sixth all-aluminum model from the company
… Unlike General Motors, which prefers spot welds for its aluminum joining, JLR uses
only bonding and rivets”
Aluminum Intensive – and multi-material – vehicles are stimulating new joining technologies
Implications: B&C/Sustainability
M-14 Federal Building – Portland, OR
LEED v4 – the latest version of the U.S. Green Building Council’s building rating system – takes effect October 2016. • “Points” will no longer be awarded for
recycled content • Points will be awarded for EPDs
(Environmental Product Declarations)
• EPDs – can be viewed as an environmental “nutrition label” for products – and are based on extensive Life Cycle Analyses
Implications: B&C/Sustainability
M-15
These environmental documents:
• Are based on data from 11 member
extruders with 30 locations and >85
presses
• Encompass 1/3 of 2015 N.A. extrusion
production
• Provide detailed, updated,
environmental impacts for extrusion –
and for the first time, for thermal
improvement, paint & anodize
• Document use of prime and recycled
feedstock
• Provide architects with the EPDs they
need for the new version of LEED, and
provide other customers with details and
transparency about extrusion’s impact.
AEC has just completed “industry - average” EPDs for both standard and thermally-
improved extrusions, as well as a comprehensive “EPD Background Report (LCA)
Implications: Solar & Lighting
M-16
Growth in both solar power and LED lighting is being driven by
reductions in energy costs
• Solar: PV module costs have dropped by 2/3 in the past 4 years, leading to power costs approaching “grid parity” – the cost of conventional utility power. 53% of all electric power capacity put in place in the first half of 2014 was from solar! • LED Lighting:
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimated that nearly 50 million LEDs installed in nine applications saved about $675 million in energy costs in 2012. DOE further estimates that if these markets switched exclusively to LEDs, annual energy savings could approach 3.9 quadrillion BTUs, and $37 billion in annual energy costs.
Implications: Solar & Lighting
M-17
Extrusion provides substantial benefit – yet faces process challenges –
in both markets
Solar: • Benefits: Light weight, ability to incorporate mounting features reduces installation
costs; minimal maintenance over 20+ year life • Challenges: cost; thermal expansion ( desert structures can see a 100° F
temperature swing from day to night; a 12 m stringer will expand/contract 0.6”) LED Lighting: • Benefits: heat dissipation; freedom of form; minimal maintenance to accompany
reduction in re-lamping • Challenges: complex shapes
Implications: Solar & Lighting
M-18
Case Example: LED Lighting
Original heat sink
Center Mount LED Lighting Fixture
• Issue -- Develop a heat sink for a new, array-style center mount LED light fixture for Medical/Examination applications. This application requires dimming from 10% to 100%, a 3700 lumen output, 60,000 hour life and electromagnetic compatibility
• Objectives
- reduce mass
- preserve, or improve heat dissipation effectiveness
- source in North America for supply chain efficiency
Implications: Solar & Lighting
M-19
1.4”
0.4”
Original part
Original heat sink
Redesign
• Approach
- Replace solid center hub with hollow section with uniform wall center web to ensure structural performance
- Replace solid sections to be drilled for screw attachment with integral screw bosses
- Utilize 6360 alloy for thermal conductivity, and to facilitate high tongue ratios and tight tolerances
• Results
- 47% weight reduction
- 4% increase in surface area, for improved heat dissipation
- elimination of secondary drilling operations, reducing total cost and speeding manufacturing
Competitive Activity
With recovery, extruders are investing in presses …
… and across the value chain
M-20
0 50 100 150 200
<7"
7-10"
10-12"
>12"
2013
2011
2007
- 52%
- 33%
+33%
-10%
North American Press Population*
Source: The Aluminum Association, CC analysis. Note press reporters are not consistent, so population is directional, not absolute
Competitive Activity
In 2013-14, roughly 20 additional presses have been put in place
New presses by size
8”
9”
>12”
12”
10”
… further shifting the press population
M-21
In particular, North American extruders are investing to support automotive lightweighting
2014- 2016
5 new presses dedicated to automotive; 110+ million pound/year capacity
2016- 2018
7+ new presses 150+ million pound/year
Competitive Activity
M-22
• A market recovering, but still in need of aggressive market development efforts
• Substantial opportunities … and challenges in: • Automotive • B&C and other sustainability-focused markets • Solar and Lighting
• More demanding customers, with expectations of: • PPAPs and LCAs and EPDs and HPDs, • Increased technical support • value chain integration
• Widespread upgrading of NA press, remelt and fabrication capability
Extruders focused more sharply on key end markets
M-23
To Recap …
