Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames,...

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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist [email protected] 515-294-9911

Transcript of Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames,...

Page 1: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Economics of Crop Production

Ag Credit SchoolAmes, Iowa

June 2, 2014

Chad HartAssociate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist

[email protected]

Page 2: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of EconomicsSource: USDA-NASS

Iowa Crop Shifts

Page 3: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Farms and Farmland

Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

Page 4: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Productivity

Source: USDA-ERS

Page 5: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Change in Input Structure

Source: USDA-ERS

Page 6: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Yields

Source: USDA-NASS

Page 7: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Corn Costs

Source: Duffy, AgDM A1-21

Page 8: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Soybean Costs

Source: Duffy, AgDM A1-21

Page 9: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Page 10: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Page 11: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U.S. Corn Supply and Use

Source: USDA-WAOB

Supply

Demand

Page 12: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Arable Land

Page 13: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Use for the Next Decade

Source: USDA-ERS

Page 14: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Use for the Next Decade

Source: USDA-ERS

Page 15: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U.S. Meat Production

Source: USDA-ERS

Page 16: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

GDP Growth

Source: USDA-ERS

Page 17: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Meat Consumption

Source: USDA-PSD

Page 18: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Veg. Oil Consumption

Source: USDA-PSD

Page 19: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Liquid Fuel Usage2007 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per

Day) (Percent of 2007 Value)

United States 20.6 98% 100% 102% 104% 107%

Canada 2.3 96% 96% 96% 100% 104%

Mexico 2.1 105% 110% 114% 129% 138%

Europe 15.3 92% 88% 88% 89% 90%

Japan 5.0 84% 86% 86% 84% 82%

China 7.6 132% 153% 178% 201% 222%

India 2.8 114% 129% 139% 154% 168%

Africa 3.1 113% 116% 126% 135% 148%

Central and South America 6.0 110% 112% 117% 125% 133%

World 86.1 103% 107% 113% 121% 128%

Source: DOE-EIA

Page 20: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U.S. Crude Oil Prices

Source: USDA-ERS

Page 21: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Markets

Source: USDA

Page 22: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Crop Prices for the Next Decade

Source: USDA-ERS

Page 23: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 2, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time!

Any questions?

My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/

Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/

Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/