EXPERIENCES OF THE MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION IN FLOOD MANAGEMENT AND MITIGATION IN THE LOWER MEKONG BASIN

Petrina RowcroftDevelopment EconomistBasin Development Plan

Regional Workshop on Methodologies of Assessment of Socio-Economic Impacts of Disasters in Asia and their Application for Poverty Eradication and Economic Development

ContentContext

MRC approach to flood management and mitigation

Impact Assessment

Mekong River CommissionIn 1995, the four governments of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam signed an Agreement for the Sustainable Development of the Lower Mekong Basin

VisionEconomically prosperous, socially just and environmentally sound

GoalsEnhanced economic and social well-beingImproved living standards of the basin inhabitantsOptimisation of the multiple use and mutual benefits of all ripariansMinimising the harmful effects that might result from natural occurrences and man-made activities

DEALING WITH FLOODSMRC focus is on:Regional and transboundary water-related issues and impacts. Local impacts dealt with by line agencies together with international and civil society organisations. MRC provides supplementary servicesPredictive assessment using various basin development planning scenarios (BDP)Analysis and assessment of flood-related impacts (FMMP)Balanced approach

Flood BenefitsAfter-flood abundance of fishFlushes the Mekong Delta to protect from salinity intrusionAids fish migration to spawning grounds and recharge of Tonle Sap Great LakeDeposition of essential sediments for soil fertilityOften attracts large amounts of foreign investment for flood rehabilitation

Flood CostsLoss of life (> 800 people during 2000 floods)Loss of agricultural productivity (measured using agricultural potential)Damage to infrastructureImpediment to navigation and trade

Flood Management & Mitigation Programme (FMMP)Flood Management & Mitigation Strategy formulated in response to 2000 floodsBased around four groups of management areas to reduce flood risk and flood hazard across the floodplain

Flood ManagementLand-use Planning Measures are aimed at keeping people away from the floodwaters

Structural Measures are aimed at keeping floodwaters away from the people

Flood Preparedness Measures recognise that - no matter how effective the above types of management measures are an overwhelming flood will always occur.

Flood Emergency Measures deal with the aftermath of such an event by helping affected people to cope with floods.

Integrated Floodplain ManagementRequires an integrated and coordinated mix of management measuresMust reflect: the flooding, flood risk and flood hazard characteristics of the particular floodplainthe specific social and economic characteristics of the flood-prone communitiesenvironmental and resource management plans and policies for the floodplain.

Flood Preparedness23 hydrological monitoring stations provide real-time data on observed and forecast water levelsObserved levels published daily on MRC website (www.mrcemekong.org)Also provide weekly flood forecasts and yearly data

Coming SoonEstablishment of a regional FMM CentreStudies, policy discussions on land use planning and infrastructure development in relation to flood impacts (BDP)Flood proofing measuresFlood forecasting, warning and dissemination servicesMediation servicesAnalysis of risk and impactsStrengthening of capacity to manage flood emergencies

Basin Development Plan (BDP)Working towards the formulation of a management strategy and plan for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB)

Scenario-based planning approachExternal conditions (e.g. climate change)Human interventions

Requires multi-level predictive assessment current focus is on strategic level

Impact Assessment in the BDPTools being developed for assessment of impacts resulting from scenarios Decision Support Framework (DSF)RAOMSEASIAMCA and expert opinionResults used to focus planning efforts by ranking development scenarios (e.g. most preferred to least preferred)

BDP shortlist

BDP strategyRegional initiativesNational plansBDP longlistMRC AgreementConsultation & Negotiation

Assessment criteriaMCAAssessment frameworkCompare & rankScenariosAnalysis of impactsScenario formulation

Impact analysisImpacts of different scenarios are described using expert opinion and models (DSF)hydrologicalenvironmentalsocialeconomicImpacts may be poorly understood / little data available / difficult to quantifyparticularly for social and economic impactswork with existing knowledgequalitative / descriptive vs quantitative

Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Floods in BDPSignificance of impacts related to flood timing, flood depth and flood durationDSF provides hydrological data and simulation models to show extent of floods under different development conditionsKnowledge base contains spatially referenced data (GIS) which assists in prediction of socio-economic and environmental impactsMost socio-economic assessment done outside of the DSF

Flood depths

Flood durations

Examples of spatial data in the DSF

Inundation map in Aug & Sept 2000Major cities in the LMBVillage centres (Lao & Cambodia)

DSF Application to environmental and socio-economic assessmentEnvironmental impacts by reference to changes in flow conditions

Impacts on land-use potential and value by reference to the extent, duration and timing of flooding on lands of different classes

Potentially impacted population (PIP)Geo-referenced population data obtained from village-level census (population and number of households) in Cambodia and Laos.Flood duration data (flood defined as > 0.5m)Sum of population * flood duration = no. of person days floodingProvides clear indication of where impacts most felt and therefore provides a focus for basin development planning in terms of flood management and mitigation measures

FloodingDSF gives changes in extent and duration of flooding, and information about the type of land flooded (land use, wetland type) NO information onimpact on ecosystemsimpact on fish productionvalue of reduced damage from floods as a result of dams.etc

Environment - wetlandsGIS in DSF gives location of wetlands, and some information on typeNO information onresponse of wetland plants or animals to changes in flowhow changes would affect subsistence usevalue of wetland produce and how this would change

Social Impacts

GIS in DSF gives location of villagespopulationsome information on social conditions (from Census, provincial level)NO information onsubsistence livelihoodsresettlement options and preferencescultural valuesethnic minorities..etc

Economic impactsGIS in DSF gives some information on land use, irrigationNO information onvalue of agricultural production (at present)non-agricultural industriesvalue of power generatedcosts of relocation

BEYOND THE DSF

Social Impact Assessment BDP currently in process of developing indicators and assessment framework based on Sustainable Livelihoods Approaches (Assets, Capabilities, Vulnerability, etc)Participatory requires understanding of how different people relate to different resources (differential impacts on gender, ethnic groups, income groups, etc)

Economic Impact AssessmentQuantitative assessment of relative costs and benefits of floodingChanges in agricultural productivity (based on potential value)Loss of lifeReplacement costs of damaged infrastructureOpportunity costs of limited/no access to infrastructureImpacts upon subsistence users (opportunity costs of limited access to/availability of natural resources)Upstream and downstream impacts (e.g. loss of fish has implications on suppliers of fishing gear and fish production facilities)Environmental-economic impacts difficult to quantify as relationships not yet fully understood (e.g. floods and fish productivity)

Potential for application of ECLAC Methodology?

Thank you

The MRC Vision provides the broad objectives for the Basin Development Plan (BDP). The Agreement itself is made up of a number of Articles which say how the Mekong River Basin should be developed and managed in order to achieve the Mission and Vision. Operating principles of the MRC are based on these three elements.The goals listed above follow from the Articles in the Agreement. Clear that much emphasis is placed on meeting social and economic objectives.The broad mandate of the MRC is to promote regional co-operation for sustainable development of the Lower Mekong Basin. With this in mind, the focus is on regional and transboundary water-related issues (ie those common to more than one member country or those which occur in one country but have cross-border (e.g. downstream) impactsMuch of the assessment work done by the MRC BDP is predictive looking at the potential impacts of potential floods. There are two main reasons for this:We want to be able to predict impacts for flood preparedness measures moving people away from floods and floods away from people Once we have an understanding of the impacts of potential floods in terms of costs and benefits under different development scenarios, we can rank those scenarios in order to select a preferred development scenario that is both optimal and equitable.All the above requires a solid, yet dynamic, baseline against which we can assess the nature and significance of flood impacts. This baseline is now largely established. Have detailed hydrological data, a social and environmental atlas of the LMB and currently conducting sub-area studies which look more closely at the socio-economic conditions of people in different parts of the Basin.Intention is that the FMM Centre will act as a one-stop shop for information related to floods and flood management in the LMBMany possible scenarios based on combinations of external conditions (e.g. climate change) and interventionsA number of tools are in the process of being developed to assist in the assessment of scenarios in order to prioritise planning efforts in accordance with the Articles of the 1995 agreementPredictive assessment used to (1) rank scenarios according to relative costs and benefits of each in order to select a preferred development strategy and (2) within the preferred strategy, to plan for flood management and mitigation measures moving people away from floods and keeping floods away from peopleBig box is the work of assessing the scenarios to see which options are the bestMay have particular scenario that produces an increase in incidence of floodingCan overlay maps to show how floods affect different areas differently. Eg. Which villages suffer from inundation >5m for periods longer than 5 daysLand-use potential thought to be a generally more useful indicator than flood damage for 3 reasons:People are generally adaptive and factor in the risk of flooding into the way in which they make use of the land .e.g those who live in flooded areas tend to build their houses on stilts above high water levels or adjust cropping patternsThe nature of the analysis required is that the assessment is made over a number of years, comparing for instance what floods on average under one set of conditions to another, rather than assessing in absolute terms the impacts of a single event.The value of flood damage is difficult to estimate with accuracy whereas there are a number of methods of estimating the net value of land in terms of long-term productivity. All three considerations point to an assessment approach that considers how over a multi-year period the potential value of land would change in relative terms with varying flow conditions, rather than one that places reliance on absolute measurement of flood damageOne application of the DSF might be to assess the impacts of flooding as a result of a dam or series of dams

Economic impacts to be examined include:Changes in agricultural productivityChanges in availability and access to natural resources (implications for poverty reduction, gender, etc)Impact on fisheries production and what this means for upstream and downstream industries