Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing · 2016-03-16 · Medium and heavy duty vehicles 29.5% of...

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Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing

Fourth quarter 2015 automotive market share trends and registrations

Brad Smith | Director, Automotive Market Statistics

Marty Miller | Senior Product Manager, VIO

Experian Automotive

2 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Today’s presentation Part one

Presentation will be available 24-48 hours after Webinar

Email with a link will be sent to all registrants to download

Questions? Contact us at [email protected]

What’s on the Road

VIO by model year, segment, age and market share

U.S. light duty vehicles through December 31, 2015

U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles through December 31, 2015

Marty Miller

Senior Product Manager, VIO


Q4 2015 Registrations

Market trends

Geographic performance

Manufacturer, make and model share

Demographic overview

Session overview Part two

Brad Smith

Director, Automotive Market Statistics


Vehicles in

Operation

What’s on the road today?

Light duty vehicles


Vehicles in operation

Q4 2015

258 million

(2.7%)

What’s on the road today? VIO Light duty vehicles

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)


Q4 2014

251.1 million

Net out of operation

10.3 million

(4%)

Carryover

New vehicle sales

17.25 million

Used vehicle sales

39.9 million

VIO additions/deletions: 27.5 million (10.7%) (new sales + out of operation)

VIO total changes: 67.4 million (26.1%) (used sales + new sales + out of operation)


VIO change by model year (in millions) Q4 2014 to Q4 2015

72.8% of all vehicles within 14 MY (28%)

New Sales 17.25M

Out of Operation



VIO by model year (in millions)

88M vehicles within “Sweet Spot”

(MY2004 – 2010)

33.6% of VIO MY2010+

77.4% of VIO MY2001+

91.3% of VIO MY1996+



Sweet Spot changing Domestic v Import



Sweet Spot changing Vehicle segment type



VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share Change from Q4 2014



Average vehicle age (1967 to current MYs of period) Rolling average vehicle age (first 20 MYs of period)



Percentage of VIO by manufacturer market share Change from Q4 2014

Detroit 3 = 55.2%



VIO Vocation How light duty commercial vehicles are used



VIO Vocation – Top makes/models Light duty vehicles as of Q4 2015 (excludes rental / leasing / dealers)



Vehicles in

Operation

What’s on the road today?

Medium and heavy duty vehicles


What’s on the road today? VIO by model year Medium and heavy duty vehicles

29.5% of VIO MY2010+

67.7% of VIO MY2001+

84.5% of VIO MY1996+

Source: Experian Automotive as of December31, 2015 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)


Q4 2015

6.9

million


VIO by GVW class & engine manufacturer share Medium and heavy duty vehicles



Top 20 VIO Market share of Vocation – High level Medium and heavy duty vehicles



U.S. Market Overview

Market Share

Loyalty

Conquest and Defection


New vehicle registrations surpassed the 17 million unit mark for the first time since 2005


Throughout the recovery, the split between individual and organizational vehicle registrations has remained flat


Generally speaking, new vehicle registrations are equally distributed across the calendar year, with Q2 and Q3 seeing a slight increase above Q1 and Q4


Light truck share of individual registration increased 4 percentage points from 2014 to 55%


Led by Entry CUV, 10 vehicle segments accounted for approximately 80% of new individual registrations in 2015


Small Pickups and Upper Premium Sports Cars took the lead in year over year growth while alternative fuel vehicles and high end luxury segments declined


4 vehicles control more than half of the Entry Level CUV Segment


General Motors edged Toyota to lead all manufacturers in market share in 2015


Tata, Subaru and General Motors experienced the largest year over year volume increase


The U.S. market is growing increasingly more competitive with 5 manufacturers fighting to hold or achieve 15% market share


Toyota, Ford and Chevrolet were the only 3 brands to achieve double digit market share in 2015


Of the top 15 brands, only Dodge and VW experienced a year over year decline in new individual registration volume


Ford F150 led all models with 2.76% market share


U.S. Market Overview

Loyalty, Conquest and

Defection


New buyers are the most loyal to their brands, followed by Certified Used and Non-Certified Used


Loyalty rates across manufacturer, make, model and dealer measures have been steadily increasing since 2010


Toyota leads all manufacturers with a loyalty rate of nearly 70%


Tata, Porsche and Volvo led all manufacturers in year over year increases in manufacturer loyalty


Subaru leads all brands with 67.9% of returning owners buying another Subaru vehicle


Lexus led all brands with a 7.2 percentage point increase in brand loyalty


Nissan NV 200 leads all models with 52.7% model loyalty rate


For every customer lost, Subaru gains nearly four new customers from other brands


King of the Conquests, Subaru gained more than 140k more customers than were lost to other brands


Light duty market size grows by 6.9M vehicles over the last 12 months as market share of the CUV and Small Car segments continue to grow

The aftermarket ‘Sweet Spot’ is set to change by Domestic v Import and by vehicle type

Commercial use (vocation) is dominated by Rental and Leasing, though Construction vehicles are close behind, yet showing their age

Total new vehicle registrations surpassed the 17 million unit mark for the first time since 2005

Led by the Entry CUV segment, 10 vehicle segments account for nearly 80% of new individual registrations

New buyers are 3.5 percentage points more loyal to their brands than certified used buyers

Subaru led all brands in make loyalty and in net conquests

In summary


Today’s presentation

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Experian Automotive

Presentation will be available 24-48 hours after Webinar

Email with a link will be sent to all registrants to download

Questions? Contact us at [email protected]

Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing · 2016-03-16 · Medium and heavy duty vehicles 29.5% of...

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