Drive Market Share Gains Automotive Industry …...Experian Automotive’s AutoCount VIO is a...

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Drive Market Share Gains -Automotive Industry Insights: Q4, 2010

Jeffrey Anderson, Director of Consulting & Analytics

© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

Presentation Overview

Fourth Quarter 2010 Automotive Market Overview

• Vehicles in Operation (VIO)• Vehicle Registrations

• New and Used

• New Vehicle Market Share• Purchase Loyalty

• Corporate and Brand

• Other Market Impacts• Vehicle Financing• Hybrid Market Share• Impact of Gas Prices


Understanding the Customer Leveraging Experian’s “best in class” data assets

NationalFraud

Database

650 million+ vehicles in U.S. (all 50 states & Wash. D.C.) and Canada, including 280million+ vehicle in operationIncludes title, registration, mileage readings, key vehicle events5.5B+ vehicle history records, including 270M+ title brands and 92M+ accident related events

OnlineActivity

DatabasesCredit

Databases

ConsumerMarketing Databases

Simmons National

Consumer Study

North AmericanVehicle

Database

Integrated Information Assets

50,000 + adults surveyed annually 8,000+ brands in 450+ product categoriesMeasures television viewing, newspaper and magazine readership, internet usage, radio listening plus mobile700+ psychographic measuresEasily extrapolated to any target file

25 million Internet usersinteracting with one million Websites across 160+ industriesAverage of 60 billion emails sent on behalf of clients per year

Consumer2 million credit inquiries daily1.3 billion transaction updates/month99.9% system availability1.3 second response rate220 million credit active consumers50 million public records

Business22 million businesses

235 million consumers, 113 million households1,500+ data attributes per recordAttitudinal segments and touch-points3,200 public and proprietary sources110 million catalog buyers148 million magazine subscribers

Approximately 600,000 knownfraud records186+ million cross-industry credit applications215+ million consumer200 +demographic and credit records


VEHICLESIN

OPERATION


AutoCount Vehicles in Operation (VIO)

Experian Automotive’s AutoCount VIO is a compilation of all new and used vehicles registered on the road in the U.S.

Quick Facts…

• There are 239,811,984 light duty vehicles on the road

• Down over 470,000 units from last quarter (-0.20%)

And up nearly 750,000 units vs. Q4 2009

• Ford is the most prevalent make, followed by Chevrolet and Toyota

• Ford F150 is the largest volume model, followed by the Honda Accord

• Trucks continue to maintain majority vs. cars (50.4% vs. 49.6%)


0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

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1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

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1984

1983

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1981

1980

1979

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1968

1967

Current VIO – U.S. Summary by Model Year

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

79.2 percent of vehicles are 15 years old or less

79%Average Age = 9.9 years (up 3 months vs 2009 data)


0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Sport Car - Ultra LuxuryUpscale - Ultra

OtherAlt Power - Hybrid Truck

Upscale - PremiumSport Car - Upper Premium

SUV - PickupAlt Power - Hybrid CarSUV - Premium Large

SUV - Upper Mid RangeSport Car - Premium

Small Car - BudgetCUV - PremiumTraditional Car

CUV - Mid RangeVan - Full Sized

Sport Car - TouringSUV - Entry LevelUpscale - Luxury

SUV - LargeUpscale - Near Luxury

CUV - Entry LevelMid Range Car - Premium

Pickup - SmallSUV - Lower Mid Range

Van - MiniMid Range Car - Lower

Small Car - EconomyMid Range Car - Standard

Pickup - Full Sized

Current VIO – Vehicle Segment

Hybrid vehicles represent 0.77 percent of current VIO

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)


Current VIO – Percent Share

Source: Experian NVDB as of December 31, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

GM

Ford

Toyota

Honda

Chrysler

Hyundai

Nissan

Other

Vehicles In Operation: Share by Manufacturer

• Domestic brands represent more than 61 percent of all vehicles in operation


VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS


U.S. Automotive Market Overview

• Q4 2010 vs Q4 2009, new vehicle registrations increased by more than 408,000 units (nearly 17 percent)

• Consistent with Q1 and Q2 increases

10

Total Vehicle Registrations by Quarter

New Vehicle Registrations

Source: Experian Automotive

Used registrations are increasing in proportion to new registrations: 2.5x new in 2007, peaking at 4.2x in Q1 2009, 3x in 2010

2009 2010


U.S. Market – New Vehicle Registrations


Q1, Q2 and Q4 consistent increases vs same quarters in

2009. Q3 2009 included cash for clunkers program


2009

2010

2009

2010

2009

2010

2009

2010

C4C


Used Vehicle Registrations

U.S. Market – Used Vehicle Registrations

Used vehicle registrations had largest increase compared to Q4

2009, as prior three quarters have been

fairly consistent over prior year


2009

2010

2009

2010

2009

2010

2009

2010


New Vehicle Market Overview

New Vehicle Registrations – Q4 2010 vs. Q4 2009


• Hyundai had highest unit and percentage gain versus Q4 2009, up nearly 80,000 units (56.6%)

• GM had second-highest unit gain, followed by Ford and Honda

• Nissan had the second highest percentage point gain (25.4%) followed by Honda (22.2%) and Chrysler (19.8%)

• Toyota was essentially unchanged, with 120 unit gain versus Q4 2009

Corporation


Market ChangersN

ew R

egis

tratio

ns


Sonata up more than

28,000 units

Ranked by Unit Change

Equinox and Silverado up

combined 34,000 units


‐5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Q4 2009 Q4 2010

M&M’s (Market Movers)

Ranked by % change

New

Reg

istra

tions


Grand Cherokee up 21,909 units

Outlander up 2,634 units

Elantra up 17,136 units


NVE (New Vehicle Entries) Q4 Performance

• Numerous small and mid-size coupes and luxury sedans entering market

• New entries represent more than 77,000 additional sales for 4th quarter

New Vehicle RegistrationsSource: Experian Automotive


-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

GM Ford Toyota Honda Chrysler Hyundai Nissan

2009 2010



New Vehicle Market Overview: Annual Summary


MARKET SHARE


Who is up? • Ford 0.9% share• Hyundai 0.7% share• Nissan 0.4% share• Chrysler 0.4% share

GM

Ford

ToyotaHonda

Chrysler

Hyundai

Nissan

Other

2010

Manufacturer Market Share Analysis

Who is down? • Toyota -1.6% share• GM -0.3% share• Honda -0.3% share

CY2010 vs CY2009 Market Share

GM

Ford

Toyota

Honda

Chrysler

Hyundai

Nissan

Other

2009



Market Share Trend

20


Manufacturer Market Share Analysis

2008 2009 2010


21


Manufacturer Market Share Analysis - The ‘Others’CY2010 vs CY2009 Market Share


• Mix of vehicles helping to drive share for Ford, Hyundai, Nissan, Chrysler and VW

• Small / Mid-Range car drop impacting share for Toyota, Honda, GM, Volvo and Mercedes-Benz

Q4 2010 vs Q4 2009 Market Share

22


Market Share Analysis: Model Level


Market Share Analysis: Segment Level

Full Size Pickup

SUV -Large

Small Car -

Economy

• Full Size Pickup segment had greatest market share increase in Q4 2010 versus Q4 2009

• Entry Level SUV and CUV, SUV Lower Mid Range and Small Car Budget had strong increases

• Mid Range Car Standard, Sport Car Touring and Small Car Economy had large market share drops


Mar

ket S

hare

Cha

nge

SUV –Entry Level

Small Car Budget

Q4 2010 vs Q4 2009 Market Share

CUV –Entry Level

SUV –Lower

Mid Range

Mid Range Car -

Standard

Mid Range Car -

Premium

Sport Car -

Touring


Market Share Analysis: Import Brand Market ShareM

arke

t Sha

re

2007 2008 2009 2010

Import Brands exceed 50 percent market share

Gas Price Spikes to over $4.00 per gallon

Cash For Clunkers


CUSTOMERLOYALTY


Loyalty Methodology

•Multiple Levels

Garage loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned, including vehicles currently in the garage or disposed up to 90 days prior to the new vehicle purchase.

Provides complete view of repurchase activity

Disposal loyalty measure whether a new vehicle purchase matches a vehicle disposed of +/- 90 days of the new vehicle purchase.

Essentially tracking vehicle replacement

Honda

Honda

Honda

Acura

Owned Vehicle:


Loyalty Types

•Multiple Levels

Corporate Loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the corporate level. Includes all brands under the corporate umbrella

Brand Loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the brand level. Honda

Honda

Honda

Acura

Corporate Loyalty Example:

Brand Loyalty Example:

Owned Vehicle:

Owned Vehicle:


Q4 2010 Corporate Loyalty

28

• GM passed Ford to gain top spot in Corporate Loyalty (first time in 3 quarters)

• Hyundai is higher than Honda for 3rd straight qtr• Chrysler continues to increase

Market Overview - Loyalty

Corporate Loyalty by Month

• Honda and Hyundai end year in deadlock

• Chrysler on upward trend for year

• GM ends quarter with dramatic increase in loyalty

• Toyota and Ford in downward trendSource: Experian Automotive

2010


Brand Loyalty – Top Gainers for Q3 2010


• Luxury brands represent five out of the top ten spots in terms of proportional gain in loyalty

• Jeep, Dodge and Chrysler show strong increases

• Kia had highest point gain, more than seven percentage points

Q4 2010 vs Q4 2009 Brand Loyalty: ranked by % change


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Kia Forte Ford Fusion

Ford Edge

Chevrolet Impala

Ford Five Hundred

Chevrolet Traverse

Ford Flex

Ford Escape

Chevrolet Equinox

Ford Focus

Brand Loyalty by Model: Top 10

Q4 2010 Brand Loyalty

30


• Kia Forte owners were most brand loyal, with nearly two out of three returning to Kia

• Ford vehicles made up six of the top ten in brand loyalty

• Chevrolet had three of top ten brand loyal vehicles

Model Owned


Corporate Loyalty: 2010 vs 2009

31

Corporate Loyalty – Annual Summary



2007 – Who took from Whom?

64,000

Net UnitsFord (471,254)GM (330,313)Chrysler (225,213)Honda 325,555Toyota 701,225

Net Owner Migration

GM Ford

Toyota

Chrysler

Honda



Q4 2010: Who’s taking from Whom?

72,124

Net UnitsGM (195,063)Chrysler (184,771)Ford 60,368Toyota 147,430Honda 172,036

Net Owner Migration

Chrysler

GM


Ford

ToyotaHonda

© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 34Net Owner Migration

Chrysler

GM


Ford

ToyotaHonda

Q4 2010: Net Migration to Hyundai

Hyundai13,968

Nissan

5,93

0

© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 35Net Owner Migration

Chrysler

GM


Ford

ToyotaHonda

Q4 2010: Net Migration to Nissan

Nissan6,597

5,93

0

Hyundai



Battle for Market Share

Hyundai

Nissan44.1%

34.0%

Corporate LoyaltyMarket Share


ADDITIONALINDUSTRYINSIGHTS


IMPACT OF VEHICLE

FINANCING


0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Brand Owned

Brand LoyaltyLoan Lease

Impact of Vehicle Financing: Loan vs. Lease


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Captive Bank Finance Credit Union

BuyHere / PayHere

Lender Type

Dealer Loyalty

Impact of Vehicle Financing: Lender Type


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ford Toyota Honda Hyundai Chevrolet Nissan Dodge

Brand Owned

Brand LoyaltyCaptive Non-Captive

Impact of Vehicle Financing: Captive vs. Non-Captive


0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

Brand Owned

Dealer LoyaltyCaptive Non-Captive

Impact of Vehicle Financing: Captive vs. Non-Captive


20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Deep SubPrime

Sub Prime

Non Prime

Prime Super Prime

VantageScore

Mercedes-Benz FinancialToyota Financial ServicesAmerican Honda FinanceFord Motor Credit

BMW Bank of North AmericaNissan Infiniti Financial Services

Finance Source: Captive

( < 600 ) ( 601 – 640 ) ( 641 – 700 ) ( 701 – 800 ) ( 801 + )

Impact of Vehicle Financing: Vantage Score

Brand Loyalty


30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

12 24 36 48 60 72 > 72Term In Months

Brand Loyalty

Lease

Loan

Impact of Vehicle Financing: Term


30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%

12 24 36 48 60 72 > 72Term In Months

Brand Loyalty

Ford Loan

Ford Lease

Honda Loan

Honda Lease

Impact of Vehicle Financing: Term


HYBRID MARKET SHARE


47


Hybrid Market Share

2008 2009 2010


IMPACT OF GAS PRICES


Mar

ket S

hare

Source: Experian Automotive, U.S. Dept. of Energy

2008 20102009

Gas

Pric

e pe

r Gal

lon

Gas Prices vs. Segment Share:Economy Cars


Mar

ket S

hare

Source: Experian Automotive, U.S. Dept. of Energy

2008 20102009

Gas

Pric

e pe

r Gal

lon

Gas Prices vs. Segment Share:Hybrid Vehicles


Conclusions

Consistent quarter-over-quarter growth in new vehicles registrations, relatively stable for used vehicles. 2010 closed 11.3% higher than 2009

Ford, Hyundai, Nissan and Chrysler continue to gain market share. While Toyota, GM and Honda lost share.

Corporate loyalty increased across the industry, with GM ending the year in the lead, followed closely by Ford. Subaru had the highest increase in loyalty, followed by Hyundai.

Variations in finance type and lending source can have large impact on customer loyalty. The degree to which manufacturers and lenders capitalize on this varies.

Success of select vehicle segments is very sensitive to gas prices. Domestic manufacturers are better positioned in terms of product to defend share during times of rising fuel costs.


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