Executive Board meeting 11 March 2004. GDP growth in the US, Japan, the euro area and among Norway's...
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Transcript of Executive Board meeting 11 March 2004. GDP growth in the US, Japan, the euro area and among Norway's...
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
GDP growth in the US, Japan, the euro area and among Norway's trading partners combined.
Quarterly growth. Per cent. 2001 - 2003. Seasonally adjusted
-2
-1
0
1
2
-2
-1
0
1
2
2001 2002 2003
US Japan Euro area Trading partners
Sources: EcoWin/US Department of Commerce, ESRI (JP) EURO-OP/Eurostat and Norges Bank
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
Regional network
• Activity is rising in most industries
• The market outlook is favourable for the next six months
• Developments in output and demand are positive for manufacturing, construction, distributive trades and services
• However, few enterprises are planning an increase in investment
• Many enterprises report that they can increase production to a fairly large extent without a substantial growth in employment
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200680
90
100
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Assumptions for money market rate and the krone exchange rate (I-44) in Inflation Report 1/04
Source: Norges Bank
Forward rate4 March
3-month money market rate
1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate
Forward rate4 March
Import-weighted exchange rate, I-441)
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
Projections for CPI-ATE and the output gap1). Per cent
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1) The output gap is a measure of the difference between actual and trend output. See box in IR 1/03
CPI-ATE
Output gap
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
CPI-ATE Total and by supplier sector. Historical developments and projections. 12-month rise. Per cent
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Goods and services produced in Norway
CPI-ATE
Imported consumer goods
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
85
90
95
100
105
110Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1)A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate
Import-weighted krone exchange rate1), sight deposit rate and 3-month interest rate differential against
trading partners. Daily figures. 1 Jan 2002 - 9 March 2004
I-44 (left-hand scale)
Sight deposit rate (right-hand scale)
Interest rate differential 3-month (right-hand scale)
Source: Norges Bank
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
Indicator of external price impulses to consumer goods measured in foreign currency.
Historical developments and projections. Annual figures. 95-06
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Source: Norges Bank
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 050
1
2
3
4
5
Interest rate expectations in the US Actual developments and expected key rate. Daily figures
Key rate
23. Oct 03
16. Dec 03
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters and Norges Bank
9. March 04
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
Annual wage growth1) and unemployment rate.Per cent. Annual figures. 1993 - 2006
0
2
4
6
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 20050
2
4
6
1) Average for all groups. Including cost of additional vacation days
Unemployment rate, LFS
Annual wage growth
Sources: Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Prices for air travelAdjusted for taxes. 12-month rise.
Jan 01 - Jan 04
Productivity growth and real growth in value added in
commercial services. 2-year moving average. Annual figures. Per cent. 1972-2003
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Productivity (right-hand scale)Output (left-hand scale)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2001 2002 2003 2004-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-8,7
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
Real interest rate after tax.Quarterly figures. 85 Q1 - 04 Q11)
-3
0
3
6
9
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003-3
0
3
6
9
1) The figure for 2004 Q1 is preliminary
3-month rate
5-year rate
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
Change in employment on previous year. Per cent. Unemployment as a percentage of the labour force.
Annual figures. 1980 - 2006
0
2
4
6
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005-4
-2
0
2
4
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
LFS unemployment(left-hand scale)
Numbers employed(right-hand scale)
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
0
2
4
6
Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 050
2
4
6
Interest rate expectations.Actual developments and expected key rate at 4 March 2004.
Daily figures
UK
Euro area
US
Norway
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
-150 -100 -50 0 50 100
Change in 3-month money market rates and effective exchange rates.
23 October 2003 - 4 March 2004
Sources: Bank of England and Bloomberg
NOK
USD
CAD
CHFSEK
EUR
JPY
GBP
NZD
AUD
Interest rate change. Basis points
Exch
ange
rate
cha
nge.
Per
cen
t
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
Short-term money market rates 9 March 2004
3-month 6-month 12-month
NOK 1.78 1.71 1.82
EUR 2.05 2.06 2.08
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
I-44 since November 2003
Source: Norges Bank
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
Nov 03 Dec 03 Jan 04 Feb 04 Mar 04
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
CPIMonetary policy meeting
CPI
CPI CPI
Monetary policy meeting
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
Expected consumer price inflation in 5 years. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 02 Q2 - 04 Q1
0
1
2
3
4
Jun 02 Dec 02 Jun 03 Dec 030
1
2
3
4
Experts
Employer organisations
Source: TNS Gallup
Employee organisations
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
Expected consumer price inflation in 2 years. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 02 Q2 - 04 Q1
0
1
2
3
4
Jun 02 Dec 02 Jun 03 Dec 030
1
2
3
4
Experts
Employer organisations
Source: TNS Gallup
Employee organisations
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
91 93 95 97 99 01 030
2
4
6
8
10
12
Vacant office space in Oslo, Asker and Bærum.
Share of total market value real estate stock. As at February. 1991-2004
Source: Eiendomsspar AS
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
House prices. Monthly figures
Jan 97 - Jan 04
Sources: NEF, EFF, finn.no and ECON
Growth on previous year, 3-month moving average (right-hand scale)
NOK 1000 per square metre (left-hand scale)
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
Credit from domestic sources (C2)12-month rise. Jan 1998 - Jan 2004
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Credit to non-financial enterprises
Total domestic credit (C2)
Source: Norges Bank
Credit to households
Executive Board meeting11 March 2004
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Oct 03 Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04 Oct 04-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
CPI-ATE Historical developments and projections1). Seasonally adjusted 3-month moving average, annualised
and 12-month rise. Oct 03 - Nov 04
Projections
1) The columns show 3-month moving average. The curve shows the 12-month rise
Historical
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank