Real GDP Growth
description
Transcript of Real GDP Growth
Rosen Consulting Group
Real GDP Growth
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99f
Rosen Consulting Group
U.S. Employment Growth
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
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U.S. Unemployment Rate
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
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Consumer ConfidenceConference Board Survey
40
60
80
100
120
140
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Index
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U.S. Merchandise Exports to East Asia plus Japan
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
1995 1996 1997 1998
3-Month Moving Average
$Million per Month
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U.S. Net Exports
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
1995 1996 1997 1998
$1992 (Billion)
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Consumer and Producer Prices
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98e
CPIPPI
Annual Change
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3-Month T-Bill vs. 10-Year T-Bond
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
3-Month10-Year
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Equity REIT Offering Volume
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98e
$Billion
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Growth in Public Real Estate Securities
6.1 7.6 10.326.2
37.248.7
67.5
129.1 120.3
200.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000f
$Billion
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Investment PerformanceREITs vs. S&P 500 Index
15.2% 15.1%
2.7%
12.2%
37.0%
19.6%
-17.1%
7.6%10.1%
1.3%
37.6%
23.1%
33.4%
28.6%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Wilshire REIT IndexS&P 500 Index
Total Return
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REIT Market ValuationStock Market vs. Real Estate Value
2123
30
1517
6 7
1 00
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-30% -20% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 20% 30%
Number of Companies
Discount Real Estate Value Premium
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REIT Yield ComparisonAFFO vs. Dividend
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
AFFO YieldDividend Yield
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Relative ValuationS&P 500 P/E vs. REIT AFFO Multiple
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
Dec-93
Mar-94
Jun-94
Sep-94
Dec-94
Mar-95
Jun-95
Sep-95
Dec-95
Mar-96
Jun-9
6
Sep-96
Dec-96
Mar-97
Jun-97
Sep-97
Dec-97
Mar-98
Jun-98
Sep-98
Dec-98
Ratio
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Net LendingCommercial Properties
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98e-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%$Billion % of GDP
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Commercial MBSGross Amount Issued
12.84.8 8.2
14.017.5 20.3 19.0
29.7
44.0
78.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
80s 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
$Billion
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CMBS Spreads to Treasuries
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Dec-93
Mar-94
Jun-94
Sep-94
Dec-94
Mar-95
Jun-95
Sep-95
Dec-95
Mar-96
Jun-96
Sep-96
Dec-96
Mar-97
Jun-97
Sep-97
Dec-97
Mar-98
Jun-98
Sep-98
Dec-98
AAA AAA BBB
Basis Points
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Pricing SpreadsCommercial Mortgage Rate vs. 10-Year T-Bond
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Basis Points
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U.S. Employment Growth
Growth Rate
less than 0%
0% to 1.1%
1.2% to 2.4%
2.5% and above
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Fastest Growing U.S. MSAsRanked by Annual Absolute Change in Employment
Rank Metropolitan Area Nov-97 Nov-98 Change
1 New York, NY 3,990.2 4,094.1 103.92 Los Angeles, CA 3,941.2 4,031.4 90.23 Phoenix, AZ 1,432.3 1,508.1 75.84 Washington, DC 2,517.0 2,585.3 68.35 Houston, TX 1,936.8 1,993.2 56.46 Atlanta, GA 2,014.0 2,069.8 55.87 Dallas, TX 1,811.3 1,866.7 55.48 Detroit, MI 2,120.6 2,170.2 49.69 Tampa, FL 1,091.8 1,138.3 46.510 Chicago, IL 4,108.6 4,155.0 46.4
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Fastest Growing U.S. MSAsRanked by Annual % Change in Employment
Rank Metropolitan Area Nov-98
1 Sarasota, FL 6.6%2 Las Vegas, NV 6.1%3 Phoenix, AZ 5.3%4 Riverside, CA 4.9%5 Orlando, FL 4.7%6 Tampa, FL 4.3%7 West Palm Beach, FL 4.2%8 Jacksonville, FL 4.2%9 Austin, TX 4.0%10 Ventura, CA 3.9%
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Fastest Growing U.S. MSAsRanked by Annual % Change in Employment
Rank Metropolitan Area Nov-98
11 Columbia, SC 3.8%12 Orange County, CA 3.8%13 Grand Rapids, MI 3.6%14 San Antonio, TX 3.6%15 Tulsa, OK 3.5%16 Denver, CO 3.5%17 Baton Rouge, LA 3.4%18 Wilmington, DE 3.3%19 Louisville, KY 3.2%20 Fort Worth, TX 3.2%
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Fastest Growing U.S. MSAsRanked by Annual % Change in Employment
Rank Metropolitan Area Nov-98
21 Seattle, WA 3.2%22 Greenville, SC 3.1%23 Dallas, TX 3.1%24 El Paso, TX 3.0%25 Houston, TX 3.0%26 Tucson, AZ 2.9%27 Cincinnati, OH 2.9%28 Fort Lauderdale, FL 2.8%29 Atlanta, GA 2.8%30 Raleigh, NC 2.8%
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Slowest Growing U.S. MSAsRanked by Annual % Change in Employment
Rank Metropolitan Area Nov-98
1 Honolulu, HI -1.9%2 Allentown, PA -0.3%3 Knoxville, TN -0.3%4 Pittsburgh, PA -0.1%5 Dayton, OH 0.0%6 Toledo, OH 0.0%7 Greensboro, NC 0.1%8 Buffalo, NY 0.2%9 Rochester, NY 0.3%10 Fort Wayne, IN 0.4%11 New Orleans, LA 0.4%12 New Haven, CT 0.4%
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Employment GrowthNew York MSA vs. U.S.
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98e
New York MSAU.S.
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Employment GrowthCalifornia vs. U.S.
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98e
CaliforniaU.S.
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Real Estate Cycle
Overshooting Phase
AbsorptionPhase
DeclinePhase
GrowthPhase
Sun Belt Apt - 9:30
Industrial - 8:30
Neighborhood/Strip/Suburban Office - 7:30
CBD Office/Full Service Hotel/Regional Mall - 6:30
Single Family/Multifamily - 8:00
12
9 3
6
Factory Outlet - 3:00
Apts Northeast/Calif - 7:00
Power Center - 10:30
Extended Stay Hotel - 12:00
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Office ConstructionContracts Awarded - F.W. Dodge
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Million SF
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Office Employment GrowthAnnual Change in Jobs
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Thousand
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Office Vacancy RatesDowntown and Suburban
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
DowntownSuburban
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Downtown Office Rent Growth
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
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Private Market Total Return (NCREIF)Office
26.0%
20.9%
9.9%12.3%12.4%
9.0%
5.7%4.0%
6.0%4.5%
-1.0%
-11.5%
-8.0%
-4.0%
3.9%
7.2%
13.4%
17.4%17.0%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98e
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Real Estate CycleOffice
Overshooting Phase
AbsorptionPhase
DeclinePhase
GrowthPhase
Chicago/Miami/New York/San Francisco - 6:30
Boston/MinneapolisSan Jose - 8:00
12
9 3
6Seattle/Wash, DC - 7:00
Los Angeles - 6:00
Atlanta/Houston - 9:30
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Multifamily Housing Starts
440379 400
636665 670
626
474407
373
298
174 170162
259 278313
340 346
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98e
Units, Thousand
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Multifamily PermitsCalifornia
8196 102
83
5844
34
70
112
158168
117
93
7560
3221 15 19 16 19 25 30
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98e
Units, Thousand
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Rental Vacancy Rates
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
5+ UnitsTotal Rentals
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Rental Inflation
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98e
Total CPIRental Component
Annual Change
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U.S. Household Formation
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98e
Million
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Divorce Rate in the U.S.
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Rate per 1,000
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U.S. Population Growth1995 - 2000f
Absolute Growth
less than 25,000
25,000 to 99,999
100,000 to 249,999
250,000 and above
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Private Market Total Return (NCREIF)Multifamily
11.6%
7.1% 6.9%
10.3%
8.8%
5.8%
-1.4%
1.8%
8.7%
11.9%11.7%11.7%12.8%
11.4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98e
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Real Estate CycleMultifamily
Overshooting Phase
AbsorptionPhase
DeclinePhase
GrowthPhase
Dallas/San Jose - 8:30
12
9 3
6
San Francisco - 8:00
Atlanta/Las Vegas/Phoenix - 9:30
New York - 7:30Boston/Los Angeles - 7:00
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Retail ConstructionContracts Awarded - F.W. Dodge
100
150
200
250
300
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Million SF
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Real Retail Sales GrowthExcluding Autos
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Annual Change
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Private Market Total Return (NCREIF)Retail
10.7%12.3%12.8%
11.0%
7.0%
15.1%
16.9%
14.4%
12.5%12.4%
14.9%
12.5%
6.0%
-1.8%-2.2%
4.9%6.0%
4.0%4.9%
8.4%8.7%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98e
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Real Estate CycleRetail
Overshooting Phase
AbsorptionPhase
DeclinePhase
GrowthPhase
12
9 3
6
Atlanta - 9:30
Boston/Chicago/S.F./Seattle - 8:30
Los Angeles/New York/Washington, DC - 6:30
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Hotel ConstructionContracts Awarded - F.W. Dodge
0
20
40
60
80
100
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Million SF
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Hotel Occupancy Rate
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
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RevPAR Growth
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98e
Annual Change
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Hotel Industry ProfitsNet Profit or Loss
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98e
$Billion
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Real Estate CycleHotel
Overshooting Phase
AbsorptionPhase
DeclinePhase
GrowthPhase
Full Service Hotel - 6:30
12
9 3
6
Extended Stay Hotel - 12:00
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Industrial ConstructionContracts Awarded - F.W. Dodge
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Million SF
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Industrial Vacancy Rate
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
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Private Market Total Return (NCREIF)Warehouse
14.2%
20.4%
16.2%15.2%
9.0%10.8%
12.4%12.9%
8.9%
12.1%11.2%9.7%
2.4%
-2.9%-2.4%-1.5%
8.5%
12.7%12.7%13.8%
12.0%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98e
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Real Estate CycleIndustrial
Overshooting Phase
AbsorptionPhase
DeclinePhase
GrowthPhase
Atlanta/Dallas - 9:30
San Jose - 8:30
12
9 3
6Detroit/Oakland/Portland/Seattle - 7:30
Los Angeles - 7:00Boston/Newark - 6:30
Chicago - 9:00