Evo Devo, Foresight, and Accelerating Change John Smart, President, ASF Association of Professional...

Evo Devo, Foresight, and Accelerating ChangeJohn Smart, President, ASF

Association of Professional FuturistsApril 2006 Santa Fe, NM

Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html

© 2006 Accelerating.org

Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto

Presentation Outline

1. Assumption: An Accelerating, Infopomorphic Universe

2. Evo Devo: An Emerging Paradigm for Universal Change

3. Three Foresight Studies:

Futures, Development, and Acceleration

4. Four Foresight Practices (and Domains):

Predicting, Planning, Profiting, Innovating

(Science, Society, Economics, Technology)

5. Five Foresight Systems:

Individual, Social, Organizational, Global, Universal



Acceleration Studies Foundation

ASF (Accelerating.org) is a nonprofit community of 3,000+ scientists, technologists, entrepreneurs, administrators, educators, analysts, humanists, and systems theorists discussing and dissecting accelerating change.

We practice “developmental future studies,” that is, we seek to discover a set of persistent factors, stable trends, and convergent and highly probable scenarios for our common future, and to use this information now to improve our daily evolutionary choices.

We suspect key macrohistorical trends include accelerating intelligence, immunity, and interdependence in our global sociotechnological systems, increasing technological autonomy, and the increasing intimacy of the human-machine, physical-digital interface.



Seeing the Extraordinary Present

“There has never been a time more pregnant with

possibilities.”

— Gail Carr Feldman



We Have Two Options:Future Shock or Future Shaping

“We need a pragmatic optimism, a can-do, change-aware attitude. A balance between innovation and preservation. Honest dialogs on persistent problems, tolerance of imperfect solutions. The ability to avoid both doomsaying and paralyzing adherence to the status quo.” ― David Brin

1. Assumption: An Accelerating, Infopomorphic Universe



Systems Theory

Systems Theorists Make Things Simple

(sometimes too simple!)

"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."

— Albert Einstein



From the Big Bang to Complex Stars: The Decelerating Phase of Universal Development



From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology: The Accelerating Phase of Universal Development

Carl Sagan’s “Cosmic Calendar” (Dragons of Eden, 1977)

Each month is roughly 1 billion years.



A U-Shaped Curve of Change

Big Bang Singularity

100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap.

1B yrs: Protogalaxies 8B yrs: Earth

100,000 yrs: Matter

50 yrs ago: Machina silico50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds

Developmental Singularity?



The MESTI Universe

Matter, Energy, Space, Time Information

Increasingly Understood Poorly Known

MEST Compression/Density/Efficiency drives accelerating change.



Physics of a “MESTI” Universe

Physical Driver: MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density

Emergent Properties: Information Intelligence (World Models) Information Interdepence (Ethics) Information Immunity (Resiliency) Information Incompleteness (Search)

An Interesting Speculation in Information Theory: Entropy = NegentropyUniversal Energy Potential is Conserved.



Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ): A Universal Moore’s Law Curve

Free Energy Rate DensitySubstrate (ergs/second/gram)

Galaxies 0.5Stars 2 (counterintuitive)Planets (Early) 75Plants 900 Animals/Genetics 20,000(10^4)Brains (Human) 150,000(10^5) Culture (Human) 500,000(10^5)Int. Comb. Engines (10^6)Jets (10^8)

Pentium Chips (10^11)

Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001

Ф

time



The Infopomorphic Paradigm

The universe is a physical-computational system.We exist for information theoretic reasons.We’re here to evolve and develop.To create, discover, and manage.To care, count, and act.To innovate, plan, profit, and predict



Cosmic Embryogenesis(in Three Easy Steps)

Geosphere/Geogenesis(Chemical Substrate)

Biosphere/Biogenesis(Biological-Genetic Substrate)

Noosphere/Noogenesis(Memetic-Technologic Substrate)

Le Phénomène Humain, 1955

Pierre Tielhard de Chardin (1881-1955)

Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist, Developmental Systems Theorist



De Chardin on Acceleration: Technological “Cephalization” of Earth

"No one can deny that a network (a world network) of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively."

“Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Phase Transition”



Stock on ‘Metahumanity’: The Emerging Human-Machine Superorganism

Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorganism, 1994

Biologist William Wheeler, 1937: Termites, bees, and other social animals are “superorganisms.” Increasingly, they can’t be understood apart from the structures their genetics compel them to construct.

Their developmental endpoint: an integrated cell/organism/supercolony.

2. Evo Devo: An Emerging Paradigm for Universal Change



The Left and Right Hands of “Evolutionary Development”

Com

plex

Env

iron

men

tal I

nter

actio

n

Selection & Convergence““Convergent Selection”Convergent Selection”Emergence,Global OptimaMEST-Compression Standard Attractors

Development

Replication & Variation ““Natural Selection”Natural Selection”Adaptive Radiation Chaos, ContingencyPseudo-Random SearchStrange Attractors

Evolution

Right HandLeft Hand

Well-Explored Phase Space OptimizationNew Computat’l Phase Space Opening



Cambrian Explosion

Com

plex

Env

iron

men

tal I

nter

actio

n

Selection/Emergence/Phase Space Collapse/MEST Collapse

Development

Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/Pseudo-Random Search

Evolution

570 mya. 35 body plans emerged immediately after. No new body plans since.Only new brain plans, built on top of the body plans (homeobox gene duplication).

For more: Wallace Arthur, Jack Cohen, Simon Conway Morris, Rudolf Raff

Invertebrates

Vertebrates

Bacteria

Insects

Multicellularity Discovered



Memetic Evolutionary Development

Com

plex

Int

erac

tion Selection, Convergence

Convergent SelectionMEST Compression

Development

Replication, VariationNatural SelectionPseudo-Random Search

Evolution

Variations on this ev. dev. model have been proposed for: Neural arboral pruning to develop brains (Edelman, Neural Darwinism, ‘88)Neural net connections to see patterns/make original thoughts (UCSD INS)Neural electrical activity to develop dominant thoughts (mosaics, fighting

for grossly 2D cortical space) (Calvin, The Cerebral Code, 1996)

Input to a neural network starts with chaos (rapid random signals), then creates emergent order (time-stable patterns), in both artificial and biological nets. Validity testing: Hybrid electronic/lobster neuron nets (UCSD INS)



Evolution vs. Development“The Twin’s Thumbprints”

Consider two identical twins:

Thumbprints Brain wiring

Evolution drives almost all the unique local patterns.Development creates the predictable global patterns.



Marbles, Landscapes, and Basins (Complex Systems, Evolution, & Development)

The marbles (systems) roll around on the landscape, each taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths predictably converge (development) on low points (MEST compression), the “attractors” at the bottom of each basin.



How Many Eyes Are Developmentally Optimal?

Evolution tried this experiment.

Development calculated an operational optimum.

Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, and certain skinks) still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye.



How Many Wheels are Developmentally Optimal on an Automobile?

Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device. Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity.



“Convergent Evolution”:Troodon and the Dinosauroid Hypothesis

Dale Russell, 1982: Anthropoid forms as a standard attractor.

A number of small dinosaurs (raptors and oviraptors) developed bipedalism, binocular vision, complex hands with opposable thumbs, and brain-to-body ratios equivalent to modern birds. They were intelligent pack-hunters of both large and small animals (including our mammalian precursors) both diurnally and nocturnally. They would likely have become the dominant planetary species due to their superior intelligence, hunting, and manipulation skills without the K-T event 65 million years ago.



Evolution and Development:Two Universal Systems Processes

Each are pairs of a fundamental dichotomy, polar opposites, conflicting models for understanding universal change. The easy observation is that both processes have explanatory value in different contexts.

The deepest question is when, where, and how they interrelate.

EvolutionCreativityChanceRandomnessVariety/ManyPossibilitiesUniquenessUncertaintyAccidentBottom-upDivergentDifferentiation

DevelopmentDiscoveryNecessityDeterminismUnity/OneConstraintsSamenessPredictabilityDesign (self-organized or other)Top-DownConvergentIntegration



Evo-Devo Provides Physical Reasons for Naturally Observed Polarities

Evolution

CreativityNovelty-SeekingFemale“Right Brain”DemocraticFreedomExperimentationPlayEntropy Creation“Watch a Movie at 1am”“Sleep at 1pm”

Development

DiscoveryTruth-SeekingMale“Left Brain”RepublicanJusticeOptimizationWorkEntropy Density Maximization“Sleep at 1am”“Watch a Movie at 1pm”

We each have both of these qualities. Best use always depends on context. Use them both. Keep the balance!



Exercise

Is computer hardware acceleration (Moore’s law) more evolution or development driven?

Have historical advances been due more to human creativity or human discovery?

What about software?



Ray Kurzweil: A Generalized Moore’s Law



Two Political Polarities: Innovation/Discovery vs. Mgmt/Sustainability

Evo-Devo Theory Brings Process Balance to Political Dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability

Developmental sustainability without generativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, adaptive weakness (Maoism).

Evolutionary generativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, a destruction that is not naturally recycling/creative (Anarchocapitalism).



Eldredge and Gould(Biological Species)

Pareto’s Law (“The 80/20 Rule”)(income distribution technology, econ, politics) Rule of Thumb: 20% Punctuation (Development)

80% Equilibrium (Evolution)

Suggested Reading:For the 20%: Clay Christiansen, The Innovator's DilemmaFor the 80%: Jason Jennings, Less is More

Punctuated Equilibrium (in Biology, Technology, Economics, Politics…)



A Saturation Lesson: Biology vs. Technology

How S Curves Get Old

Resource limits in a niche Material

Energetic

Spatial

Temporal

Competitive limits in a niche Intelligence/Info-Processing

No Known or Historical Limits to Information Acceleration 1. Our special universal structure permits each new computational

substrate to be far more MEST resource-efficient than the last2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition

Result: No Apparent Limits to the Acceleration of Local Intelligence, Interdependence, and Immunity in New Substrates Over Time

3. Three Foresight Studies: Futures, Development, and Acceleration



Three Fundamental Foresight Studies:Futures, Development, and Acceleration

Futures Studies– “Possible” change (scenarios, alternatives)

Development Studies– “Irreversible” change (emergences, phase

changes) Acceleration Studies

– “Accelerating” change (exponential growth, positive feedback, self-catalyzing, autonomous)

All three are evo-devo compliant models of accelerating change.



Development Studies I:Irreversible and Progressively Emergent

Historical Examples (Discuss): The Wheel Electricity Democracy Emancipation

Future Scenarios (Discuss): Public Transparency / End of Anonymity The Conversational User Interface The Metaverse The Valuecosm



Development Studies II:Irreversible and Cyclically Emergent

Historical Examples (Discuss): Individuation vs. Conformity (Pendulum) Plutocracy vs. Democracy (Pendulum) Materialism, Idealism, Conflict Resolution (Cycle) Quaternary Generations (Cycle) Guns (Japanese and Chinese history.

Nonlethals today.) Warfare (Archaic Age rise, Empires Age peak, 21st

Century rise and fall)



Development Studies III:The S Curve (Logistic Growth)

Four Classic Phases:

Emergence, Growth, Maturing, Saturation

Fifth Developmental Phase:

Senescence/Death (and Replacement)



Exercise: Identify the Logistic Phase

Current Year if Date Not Given: Air Transportation World Population (1960) World Population (2000) MOS Computing Price/Performance Copper Twisted Pair Communication Price/Performance Novel Rock Songs Internet Users Bacterial Growth on introduction to new media Rabbit Population Growth on introduction to Australia Ocean Pollution Global Energy Intensity (Gigajoules/capita used annually) Global CO2 Production Global Digital Divide (Between 1st and Emerging World) Global Education Divide Global Economic Divide Global “Power” Divide



Acceleration Studies:Something Curious Is Going On

Unexplained.(Don’t look for this in your physics or information theory texts…)



Classic Predictable Accelerations:Moore’s Law

Moore’s Law derives from two predictions in 1965 and 1975 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, (and named by Carver Mead) that computer chips (processors, memory, etc.) double their complexity every 12-24 months at near constant unit cost. This means that every 15 years, on average, a large number of technological capacities (memory, input, output, processing) grow by 1000X (Ten doublings: 2,4,8…. 1024). Emergence!There are several abstractions of Moore’s Law, due to miniaturization of transistor density in two dimensions, increasing speed (signals have less distance to travel) computational power (speed × density).



Transistor Doublings (2 years)

Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net



Processor Performance (1.8 years)




DRAM Miniaturization (5.4 years)




Dickerson’s Law: Solved Protein Structures as a Moore’s-Dependent Process

Richard Dickerson, 1978, Cal Tech:

Protein crystal structure solutions grow according to n=exp(0.19y1960)

Dickerson’s law predicted 14,201 solved crystal structures by 2002. The actual number (in online Protein Data Bank (PDB)) was 14,250. Just 49 more.

Macroscopically, the curve has been quite consistent.



Many Tech Capacity Growth Rates Are Independent of Socioeconomic Cycles

There are many natural cycles: Plutocracy-Democracy, Boom-Bust, Conflict-Peace…

Ray Kurzweil first noted that a generalized, century-long Moore’s Law was unaffected by the U.S. Great Depression of the 1930’s.

Conclusion: Human-discovered, Not human-created complexity here. Not many intellectual or physical resources are required to keep us on the accelerating developmental trajectory.

Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999

“MEST compression is a rigged game.”



IT’s Exponential Economics




Macrohistorical Singularity Books

The Evolutionary Trajectory, 1998

Singularity 2130 ±20 years

Trees of Evolution, 2000




Macrohistorical Singularity Books

Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003


The Singularity is Near, 2005




Henry Adams, 1909: The First “Singularity Theorist”

The final Ethereal Phase would last only about four years, and thereafter "bring Thought to the limit of its

possibilities."

Wild speculation or computational reality?

Still too early to tell, at present.



Acceleration Studies: Our Historical Understanding of Accelerating Change

In 1904, we seemed nearly ready to see intrinsically accelerating progress. Then came mechanized warfare (WW I, 1914-18, WW II, 1939-45), Communist oppression (60 million deaths). 20th century political deaths of 170+ million showed the limitations of human-engineered accelerating progress models.

Today the idea of accelerating progress remains in the cultural minority, even in first world populations. It is viewed with interest but also deep suspicion by a populace traumatized by technological extremes, global divides, and economic fluctuation.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, Out of Control, 1993



The Technological Singularity Hypothesis

Each unique physical-computational substrate appears to have its own “capability curve.”

The information inherent in these substrates is apparently not made obsolete, but is instead incorporated into the developmental architecture of the next emergent system.



The Developmental Spiral

Homo Habilis Age 2,000,000 yrs ago Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 yrs Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age 40,000 yrs Agricultural Age 7,000 yrs Empires Age 2,500 yrs Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770) Industrial Age 180 yrs (1770-1950) Information Age 70 yrs (1950-2020) Symbiotic Age 30 yrs (2020-2050) Autonomy Age 10 yrs (2050-2060) Tech Singularity ≈ 2060



“NBICS”: 5 Choices for Strategic Technological Development

Nanotech (micro and nanoscale technology) Biotech (biotechnology, health care) Infotech (computing and comm. technology) Cognotech (brain sciences, human factors) Sociotech (remaining technology applications)

It is easy to spend lots of R&D or marketing money on a still-early technology in any field.Infotech examples: A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless

It is almost as easy to spend disproportionate amounts on older, less centrally accelerating technologies.

Every technology has the right time and place for innovation and diffusion.

First mover and second mover advantages.



“Unreasonable” Effectiveness and Efficiency of Science and the Microcosm: Wigner and Mead

The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences, Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner, 1960 After Wigner and Freeman Dyson’s work in 1951, on symmetries and simple universalities in mathematical physics.

Commentary on the “Unreasonable Efficiency of Physics in the Microcosm,” VSLI Pioneer Carver Mead, c. 1980.

F=ma E=mc2

F=-(Gm1m2)/r2

W=(1/2mv2)

In 1968, Mead predicted we would create much smaller (to 0.15 micron) multi-million chip transistors that would run far faster and more efficiently. He later generalized this observation to a number of other devices.



Understanding the Lever of Nano and ICT

“The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative democracy], moves the world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814)

The lever of accelerating information and communications technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics (in inner space) increasingly moves the world. (Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…)

"Give me a lever, a fulcrum, and place to stand and I will move the world."

Archimedes of Syracuse (287-212 BC), quoted by Pappus of Alexandria, Synagoge, c. 340 AD



Example: Holey Optical Fibers

Above: SEM image of a photonic crystal fiber. Note periodic array of air holes. The central defect (missing hole in the middle) acts as the fiber's core. The fiber is about 40 microns across.

This conversion system is a million times (106) more energy efficient than all previous converters. These are the kinds of jaw-dropping efficiency advances that continue to drive the ICT and networking revolutions.

Such advances are due even more to human discovery (in physical microspace) than to human creativity, which is why they have accelerated throughout the 20th century, even as we remain uncertain exactly why they continue to occur.

Lasers today can made cheaply only in some areas of the EM spectrum, not including, for example, UV laser light for cancer detection and tissue analysis. It was discovered in 2004 that a hollow optical fiber filled with hydrogen gas, a device known as a "photonic crystal," can convert cheap laser light to the wavelengths previously unavailable.



Accelerating Ephemeralization and the Increasingly Weightless Economy

In 1981 (Critical Path), Fuller called ephemeralization, "the invisible chemical, metallurgical, and electronic production of ever-more-efficient and satisfyingly effective performance with the investment of ever-less weight and volume of materials per unit function formed or performed". In Synergetics 2, 1983, he called it "the principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and energy per each given level of functional performance”

This trend has also been called “virtualization,” “weightlessness,” and Matter, Energy, Space, Time (MEST) compression, efficiency, or density.

In 1938 (Nine Chains to the Moon), poet and polymath Buckminster Fuller coined "Ephemeralization,” positing that in nature, "all progressions are from material to abstract" and "eventually hit the electrical stage." (e.g., sending virtual bits to do physical work)Due to principles like superposition, entanglement, negative waves, and tunneling, the world of the quantum (electron, photon, etc.) appears even more ephemeral than the world of collective electricity.



Tech Roadmappers Carefully Watch Efficiency/Cost/Capacity Curves!

Toshiba Li-Ion Nanobattery What Might This Enable?

80% recharge in 60 seconds

99% duty after 1,000 cycles

Reliable at temp extremes

Cost competitive

New consumer wearable and mobile electronics Military apps Plug-in hybrids at home and filling stations (“90% of an electric vehicle economy”)

“The future’s already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” ― William Gibson



An Electric Future: Natural Gas, Nanobatteries, and Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Nanobatteries can make electric car recharging as fast as gas tank filling, and tomorrow's power grids will be much more decentralized than today's gasoline stations, supporting even greater city densities.

“Driving Toward an Electric Future,” John Smart, 2006

Natural gas, already 20% of US energy consumption, is the fastest growing and most efficient component.

Nanobatteries recharge 80% in 60 seconds,keep 99% of their duty after 1,000 cycles.

180+ mpg Prius. 34 miles on battery only.



Understanding Process Automation

Perhaps 80% of today's First World paycheck is paid for by automation (“tech we tend”).

Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox, Theory of Economic Growth)“7/8 comes from technical progress.”

Human contribution (20%?) to a First World job is Social Value of Employment + Creativity + Education

Developing countries are next in line (sooner or later).

Continual education and grants (“taxing the machines”) are the final job descriptions for all human beings. Termite Mound



Oil Refinery (Multi-Acre Automatic Factory)

Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators, each needing only a high school education. The 1972 version eliminated the three operators.



Automation and Job Disruption

Between 1995 and 2002 the world’s 20 largest economies lost 22 million industrial jobs.

This is the shift from a Manufacturing to a Service Economy.

America lost about 2 million industrial jobs, mostly to China. China lost 15 million ind. jobs, mostly to machines. (Fortune) Despite the shrinking of America's industrial work force, the country's overall industrial output increased by 50% since 1992. (Economist)

“Robots are replacing humans or are greatly enhancing human performance in mining, manufacture, and agriculture. Huge areas of clerical work are also being automated. Standardized repetitive work is being taken over by electronic systems. The key to America's continued prosperity depends on shifting to ever more productive and diverse services. And the good news is jobs here are often better paying and far more interesting than those we knew on the farms and the assembly line.” Tsvi Bisk"The Misery of Manufacturing," The Economist. Sept. 27, 2003"Worrying About Jobs Isn't Productive," Fortune Magazine. Nov. 10, 2003 “The Future of Making a Living,” Tsvi Bisk, 2003



World Economic Performance

GDP Per Capita in Western Europe,1000 – 1999 A.D.

This curve looks quite smooth on a macroscopic scale.

Notice the “knee of the curve” occurs at the industrial revolution, circa 1850.



Our 2002 service to manufacturing labor ratio, 110 million service to 21 million goods workers, is 4.2:1

Automation and the Service Society



The Voluntary Future

Lifetime hours trends: 1880 1995 2040

Total Available (after eating, sleeping, etc.)

225,900 298,500 321,900

Worked to earn a living 182,100 122,400 75,900

Balance for Leisure and Voluntary Work

43,800 176,100 246,000

Prediction: Great increase in voluntary activities. Culture, entertainment, travel, education, wellness, nonprofit service, humanitarian and development work, the arts, etc.

Source: The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism, 2000, Robert Fogel (Nobel-prize-winning economist, founder of the field of cliometrics, the study of economic history using statistical and mathematical models)



Angus Maddison’s Phases of Capitalist Development, 1982*

*Also Pentti Malaska’s Funnel Model of Societal Transition, 1989/03

Network/Services/KM SocietySociety of Intangible Needs (“Weightless Economy”)

Network 1.0“McJobs” & Service65% of Jobs, 2000’s

Network 2.0New Middle Class40% of Jobs, 2030’s

Network 3.0Consolidation Again15% of Jobs, 2060’s

Manufacturing/Information Society Society of Tangible Needs (“Property Economy”)

Manufacturing 1.0Exploitive Jobs50% of Jobs, 1900’s

Manufacturing 2.0New Middle Class35% of Jobs, 1950’s

Manufacturing 3.0Offshoring/Globalizing14% of Jobs, 2000’s

Agricultural Society Society of Basic Needs (“Food/Shelter Economy”)

Agriculture 1.0Subsistence Jobs80% of Jobs, 1820’s

Agriculture 2.0Family Farms50% of Jobs, 1920’s

Agriculture 3.0Corporate Farms2% of Jobs, 1990’s



Network Economy 1.0

Remittances(From Guest Workers in

U.S. and Canada)

Foreign Direct Investment(Corporate)

NGO’s(Nonprofit Contribs)

Government Aid (IMF, WB, G8, USAID)

Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America today, the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column?



Network Economy 1.0

Remittances(From Guest Workers in

U.S. and Canada)

Foreign Direct Investment(Corporate)

NGO’s(Nonprofit Contribs)

Government Aid (IMF, WB, G8, USAID)

Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America today, the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column?

A: Remittances, since 2003. This may be a permanent shift. Shows what could happen in Africa, Russia, and other continually emigrating (“brain drain”) nations.

Future of Philanthropy, GBN, 2005



Tools for Networking 1.0:Social Network Analysis

Note the linking nodes in these “small world” (not scale free) networks.

“Chains of Affection,” Bearman & James Moody, AJS V110 N1, Jul 2004



Networking Books

Linked, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi, 2003

Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2003



The New Paradigm: Out of (Individual) Control. The Wisdom of the (Well Organized) Crowd.



Back to the Greek Future

Greece built an enviable empire on the backs of human slaves.

21C humanity is building an even more enviable one on the backs of our robotic servants.

Expect machine emancipation, too.

“The more things change,

the more some things stay the same.”

4. Four Foresight Practices (and Domains)Predicting, Planning, Profiting, Innovating(Science, Society, Economics, Technology)



Systemic (Integrated) Foresight:Greeks, Pronouns, Skill Sets and Processes

Greeks

True

What Is

Good

What ‘We’ Want

Beautiful

What ‘I’ Want

Pronouns

It/Its We/He/She/You I/Me

Foresight Skill Sets

DiscoveryUniversal

ManagementSocial

CreativityIndividual

Processes

DevelopmentConvergence

Statics/DynamicsLaw/Emergence

EvolutionDivergence



Integral Maps:Ken Wilber’s Process Quadrants

Computational Processes

Management/Validity Tests

We need foresight in all quadrants (processes and management tests).

• All drive change.• None can be reduced to the others• There are no others as basic!



Systemic Thinking:Edward De Bono’s Six Thinking Hats

It/Its We/He/She/You I/Me

White(Facts)

Yellow(Social Positive)

Red(Intuition)

Blue(Process)

Black(Social Negative)

Green(Creative)



Types of Intelligence:Gardner’s Eight ‘Frames’/ ‘Modules’

Gardner has developed research and metrics for eight different “frames” or “modules” of human capacity. A promising way to look at thinking.



Integral Intelligence:Gardner’s ‘Frames,’ Wilber’s ‘Lines’

I (Innovating) It (MEST Mgmt - Profiting)

Intrapersonal/Self-Identity Body/Kinesthetic/Health Cog-Emot/Needs/Self-Care Creativity/Innovating/Vision

Visual/Spatial Aural/Musical MEST/Thing-Care Decisionmaking/Adapting

We (Social Mgmt - Planning) Its (Predicting)

Interpersonal/Social-Identity Linguistic/Social-Narrative Intimacy/Social-Care Moral/Cultural/Social-Relation

Nature/Systems Logical/Mathematical Object Relatns/Structure-Care Discovery/Predictive/Counting

Meta/Integral/Spiritual (Attractor)

Wilber proposes additional intelligence lines/dimensions on top of Gardner’s. I’ve mapped nine I recognize to his quadrants above. They fit nicely.

Wilber also proposes all lines follow a developmental vector, that the higher levels of all lines look spiritual, and that the spiritual line is a convergent intelligence attractor that continually tries to look meta (above, beyond) all the other lines.



Integral Foresight Development: Wilber, De Bono, Gardner, Ichazo, Jenkins, Jung, Myers-Briggs, Smart

I (Innovating)Subjective Self

It (MEST Mgmt - Profiting)Objective Self

Intrapersonal/Self-Identity Body/Kinesthetic/Health Cog-Emotional/Needs/Self-Care Creativity/Innovating/Visioning The Individualist (4) (Type A) The Enthusiast (7) (Type B) “I” Introverted Orientation “F” Feeling Function INFP, INFJ, ISFP

Visual/Spatial Aural/Musical MEST/Thing-Care Decisionmaking/Adapting (Z & NZ) The Challenger (8) (Type A) The Loyalist (6) (Type B) “J” Judging Process (Think or Feel) “S” Sensing Function ESTJ, ISTJ, ESFJ, ISFJ

We (Social Mgmt - Planning)Subjective System

Its (Predicting)Objective System

Interpersonal/Social-Identity Linguistic/Social-Narrative Intimacy/Social-Care Moral/Cultural/Social-Relation The Achiever (3) (Type A) The Helper (2) (Type B) “E” Extroverted Orientation “N” Intuition Function ENFP, ENFJ, ENTP, ENTJ

Nature/Systems Logical/Mathematical Object Relations/Structure-Care Discovery/Predictive/Counting The Reformer (1) (Type A) The Investigator (5) (Type B) “P” Perceiving Process (Intuit or Sense) “T” Thinking Function INTP, ESTP, ISTP

Meta/Integral/Spiritual (Attractor) The Peacemaker (9) (Types A and B) INTJ, ESFP (Integral Types)

Wilber’s Four “Quadrants”Smart’s Four “Foresight Skills”Gardner’s Eight “Intelligences” (Multiple Intelligences)Wilber’s Nine Additional “Developmental Lines” (Smart’s Interpretation)Ichazo/Naranjo’s (Enneagram) Nine “Personality Types”, (Subtyped by Jenkin’s Type A/Type B ClassifiersMyers-Briggs Sixteen Personality Types (Jung’s 4 Mental Functions, 2 Orientations, and 2 Processes).

Fourteen of the sixteen M-B types weight to one of the four quadrants by possessing both its function and its orientation or process. Note that there are eight M-B “manager” (the most prevalent), three “creator” types, three “discoverer” types, and two “integral” types.

This seems a good reflection of these skills and prevalence in the general population.



Four Foresight Domains:Technological, Social, Economic, Scientific

I (Individual/Self)

Creativity-Driven Futures

It (Organizational/Contractual)

Agenda-Driven Futures

Technological

Innovating

Economic

Profiting

We (Social/Kinship)

Consensus-Driven Futures

Its (Global/Species)

Research-Driven Futures

Social

Planning

Scientific

Predicting



Four Essential Foresight Practices:Innovating, Planning, Profiting, and Predicting

Innovating/Creating (I)

Thinking and acting by personal preferred futures

Planning/Negotiating (We)

Thinking and acting by social consensus plans

Profiting/Adapting (It)

Thinking and acting by objectively measurable results

Predicting/Discovering (Its)

Thinking and acting by statistically predictive forecasts



Exercise: Categorize these Foresight Practices(Innovating, Planning, Profiting, or Predicting)

sci-fi and utopian studiesbudgetingaccounting and financebusiness intelligencescenarios and creative thinking roadmappingsocial and environmental impact marketing researchindividual visioningmanagement by consensusbusiness IT (ERP, CRM, etc.)soft sciences and systems theorysocial networkingcollective visioninginnovation

command leadershipenterprise planningmanagement by meas. resultsforecasting and trendssci-tech R&Dconflict resolutionrisk management and insurancemanagement by forecastentrepreneurshipstrategic planning scanning history of predictioncommunity buildingstatistics and actuarial sciencehard sciences



Four Essential Foresight Practices:Innovating, Planning, Profiting, and Predicting

Innovating/Creating (I)Management by personal preferred futures: command leadership, sci-fi and utopian studies, visioning, creative thinking, scenarios, entrepreneurship, innovation, sci-tech R&D

Planning/Negotiating (We)Management by social consensus: social networking, collective visioning, conflict resolution, community building, strategic planning, roadmapping, enterprise robustness and resilience planning

Profiting/Adapting (It)Management by measurable results: accounting, finance, budgeting, measured economic, social, and environmental benefits, risk mgmt (insurance), hedging, business IT (ERP, CRM, etc.)

Predicting/Discovering (Its)Management by forecast (soft to hard): scanning, marketing research, business intelligence, soft sciences and systems theory, history of prediction, forecasting, statistical trends, actuarial science, hard sciences

5. Five Foresight Systems: Individual,Social, Organizational, Global, Universal



Five Foresight Systems:Individual, Social, Organizational, Global, Universal

I (Individual/Self)




Technological Innovating Creating

(introverted, feeling) Caring [Love/Beauty]

Economic Profiting (Measuring) Managing-Politics-Law-Etc. (judging, sensing) Acting [Wealth/Progress]

We (Social/Kinship)




Social Planning (Negotiating) Managing-Politics-Law-Etc. (extroverted, intuiting) Acting [Peace/Unity]

Scientific Predicting Discovering (thinking, perceiving) Counting [Truth/Knowledge]

All (Universal/Metascientific) [Transcendence] (Attractor)

Physics-Driven Futures



Three Fundamental Foresight Studies:Futures, Development, and Acceleration

I (Individual/Self)




Technological Innovating

Economic Profiting

We (Social/Kinship)




Social Planning

Scientific Predicting

Acceleration Studies (Universal System Attractor)

Question: Which is unlike the others? The universal system grows asymptotically via science and technology, and secondarily via economic and social change. All five (individual, kinship tribe, contractual tribe, species, universe) may be astrobiologically developmental.

Futures Studies (Evolutionary)

Development Studies (Developmental)



Four Types of “Futures Studies”

– Exploratory/Creativity-Driven (Speculative Literature, Art)

– Consensus-Driven (Political, Trade Organizations)

– Agenda-Driven (Institutional, Strategic Plans)

– Research-Driven (Stable Developmental Trends) The last is the critical one for acceleration studies and

development studies

It is also the only one generating falsifiable hypotheses

Accelerating and increasingly efficient, autonomous, miniaturized, and localized computation is apparently a fundamental meta-stable universal developmental trend. Or not. That is a key hypothesis ASF seeks to address.



Smart’s Laws of Technology

1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do.(Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development).

2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of technological evolutionary development.

(Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency,

P2P as a proprietary or open source development)

3. The first generation of any technology is often dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity, and with luck the third becomes net humanizing. (Cities, cars, cellphones, computers).

Discussion

Evo Devo, Foresight, and Accelerating Change John Smart, President, ASF Association of Professional...

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