Evidence based STI Policy formulation, strategy and planning. The SA case and

why indicators matter

Michael KahnCentre for Research Evaluation of Science and Technology,

University of Stellenbosch, South AfricaRoundtable Meeting for the preparation of the

Science, Technology, Innovation and Global Assessment ProgrammeUNESCO, Paris. 4-5 July, 2011

mikejkahn@gmail.com

1885 – Kongokonferenz; “Scramble for Africa’

1945 – 1989 Decolonization; consolidation of states; elite formation

1989 – The multi-polar world+ ICT revolution

Bio- & Nanotechnology revolutions accelerate

Doha stutters; global insecurity; inequalities grow, MDGs beckon

Population decline in the North; mobility for survival

Financial imbalances, innovation & greed: 2008 meltdown with nationalization of banks, insurers, auto makers …

Rise of liberation technology: Facebook, texting and Twitter

1. A new ‘Great Game?’

CHINA & INDIA

BRAZI

L

RUSSIA

(USA)

SOUTH AFRICA

HR

(EU)

Scramble for Africa II

Whence development?

• Some prescriptions reach sell-by date; others revived– Washington vs “BeST” Consensus (Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo); – World Bank “now agnostic with respect to the role of the

State” (Jan 2009); Deregulation no longer the panacea– Higher education investment for all countries (already from

2000)– The challenge of Dutch Disease –the resource curse

• Lessons from the Asian Tigers – Prior investment in people– Learning by doing; develop absorptive capacity through

reverse engineering & technology transfer; export at all costs

• WTO rules, OK?

2. A primer on the political economy of South Africa

Developmental state I (1920 -1980) Apartheid Constructed Crisis; minerals-energy complex + inward industrialization. Lean state (1980 – 2010) adopted under pressure

UNIVERSITIES+

ACADEMIES?

BUSINESS

GOVT. DEPTS INSTITUTES &

MUSEUMSS&T SERVICES

UTILITIES

PUBLIC

SECTOR

Regulatory, ethical & legal, environmental,

IPR

Cultural-

Political norms

Associations

EDUCATION

TRAINING

SKILLS DEV

STANDARDS

WORLD SYSTEM

S.O.E.sNGOs

INFORMAL

SECTOR

ECONOMIC &FINANCIAL SYSTEM

EUROPEANS

ONLY

Social innovation !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1994 - Democracy - Inclusion Constructed Crisis Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP)

then Growth, Employment and Redistribution strategy Establishment of social safety netWide usage of development indicators

2009 – Developmental state II. Agric 3% (9); Manufacturing 32% (26); Services 65%

(65)High HIV, Gini, high unemployment; low skills World class financial system with large carry trade.Domestic TNCs trade in Africa, Middle and Near

East- Sun, Multichoice, Grindrod, Shoprite, ABSA, SASOL, AAC, Old Mutual, Nandos, MTN, ESKOM, Mediclinic, Tongaat-Hulett, Makro, SABMiller etc.Open economy with symptoms of Dutch Disease

3. National innovation system & policy

End of military missions?

Information divide

The sentinel indicator

• R&D Strategy (2002)• Korea, Australia, Malaysia as exemplars• “Foresight study guides” new missions for ICTs and

Biotech ‘Technology for Poverty Reduction’• GERD; GDP 1% by 2008; HRD - SA Research Chairs;

Centres of Excellence; IP law; Tax Incentive; Institutionalized measurement

• Ethical clearance; GMO and clinical trials registers• Biodiversity and IKS legislation

• International networking; NEPAD, ASTII; AU S&T • Infrastructure – Center for High-speed

Computing• Science Councils – representative staff

demographics; contract income; increased science outputs

• OECD Review of Innovation Policy (2007) • Technology Innovation Agency (2008)

‘Western/bio-environmental science

Understand path dependence

Full-time equivalent researchers, 1992 and 2007

Headcount of researchers: 30 000(Korea was at this level around 1982)Systems grow iff they are nurtured

• Ten Year Innovation Plan (2008) • Space Science – remote monitoring & telemetry• Energy, hydrogen economy & new materials -catalysis• Farmer to Pharma-biotech, plant & animal science• Global dynamics – climate change – remote sensing• Human and Social Dynamics – poverty of technology or

poverty of politics?

• The New Growth Path – low growth; under- employment; binding constraints; go green

• Industrial Policy Action Plan – choosing winners?• What prioritization process? How did the Pebble Bed

Modular Reactor get its funding?• What demands for innovation, by who and with what

expected benefit? • How to measure policy impact, intended and

unintended? • New Public Management and Delivery Agreements –

which targets shall apply?

4. Innovation and the Developmental State

Gateway role affirmed as central to New Growth Path

South Korea: GERD; GERD/GDP; USPTO

800

600

400

200

0 x x x x x x xx

x

x

x

x

• Innovation policy subordinate to macroeconomic and industrial policy; Bounded Rationality and Silos

• Yesterday’s innovation system lives in the present• Why is there a high-technology innovation barrier?• Department of Science and Technology has

mandate to coordinate S&T budgets, little authority• High level compacts needed to steer a system

Some lessons

• Indicators matter; they underpin dialogue; require careful interpretation and knowledge of metadata

• Do we measure what matters, or what is measurable?

• In emerging economies could STI be understood as “sourcing, trialing, interacting?”

• Spectrum of IP inc. design, plant varieties and impacts

• For South Africa – dynamism of the services sector• Triple bottom line reporting• Footprint across Africa, but vulnerable to takeover

(Barclays, Vodafone, Walmart, SINOCO, CNOOC, Vale.

Beware of BRICs bearing gifts!

“Roaring Lions”

‐

small innovation systems; high growth 

Sources: UNESCO World Science Report, 2011; Web of Science; UIS; http://info.worldbank.org/etools/kam2

Country GERD GERD/G

DP Graduates KEI rank Publications Main

PPP USD m (2007)

Sciences; Engineers

(2009)2006-10 Field

Angola - - 17; 7 127 104 HealthChad - - - - 81 Health

Congo (D.R.) 75.2 0.48 - - 378 Health

Ethiopia 106.3 0.17 2440; 2613 141 2366Agric/Heal

th

Mozambique 83 0.74 343; 162 136 573 HealthZimbabwe - 0.13 - 119 1302 HealthRwanda - - - 143 227 HealthZambia 3.8 0.036 - 123 689 Health

Co-publication or “ me academic hunter, you data gatherer”

African Science, Technology & Innovation Indicators initiative

• New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD)• Organization of African Unity African Union• African Ministers Council on S&T (AMCOST) – Africa’s

S&T Consolidated Plan of Action • Various flagship projects: Biotechnology;

Mathematical Sciences … strengthening evidence- based STI policy

• ASTII – seed funding from SIDA; Algeria, Angola, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia

• Process to build capacity for STI measurement and indicator production

• Part of the process of deepening the understanding and measurement of STI in developing countries.

• Innovation system approach: “to broaden the discussion of identified structural impediments that tend to constrain and inhibit African economic growth and human development … improving institutions, so that they become broadly participative, transparent and universal, is imperative in redressing the failures of the past and ending the inevitable continuities with path dependencies and trajectories.”

• Training workshops in Pretoria; Frascati and Oslo Manual guidelines; surveys instruments adapted from South Africa. Mix of questionnaire and interview techniques.

• 13 countries contributed to African Innovation Outlook

• GERD by source of funds and sector of performance; and R&D personnel by level of formal qualification and occupation, gender, headcount and full-time equivalent, as well as researchers by gender and field of science.

• Malawi, Uganda and South Africa showed GERD: GDP above 1%.

• With the exception of South Africa and Malawi, the public sector is main performer and funder of R&D

• Basic research: Nigeria (36.1%); South Africa (20.6%) and Tanzania (19.2%).

• Good progress on developing the conversation; now include industry

• Challenge will be to institutionalize capacity and ensure dialogue with policy makers