Evento sul Project Risk Management - gruppoeureka.it - Evento Luiss... · LUISS Guido Carli - Aula...
Transcript of Evento sul Project Risk Management - gruppoeureka.it - Evento Luiss... · LUISS Guido Carli - Aula...
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No Risk, No Gain
Evento sul Project Risk Management
Venerdì, 21 marzo 2014 - ore 15.00LUISS Guido Carli - Aula Polivalente
Viale Romania, 32 - Roma
LUISS Business School – Area Management e innovazionne
Organizzato con Eureka Service
www.gruppoeureka.itThe PMI Registered Educati on Provider logo is aregistered mar k of the Projec t Management Ins titute,
Inc.
Sponsor dell’evento
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21 Marzo 2014
Managing Risks in Complex Business/ProjectsProject Risk Management in
Land & Naval Systems Division
Organizzato con Eureka Service
www.gruppoeureka.itThe PMI Registered Educati on Provider logo is aregistered mar k of the Projec t Management Ins titute,
Inc.
Sponsor dell’evento
LUISS Business School – Area Management e innovazionne
Sante TorinoL&NSD - Head of Risk Management Major Programmes
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S. A
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dSUMMARY
The Selex ES Business -
Land & Naval Systems Division
project’s characteristics
Complex Projects:
a challenging & risky environment
Risk Management in L&NS Division
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PL
AT
FO
RM
SSensorsEquipments
Connectivity and IT Infrastructures and Equipments
ICT Services
Command and Control
Program & Project
ManagementC
4IS
TA
R *
* Command & Control, Communications, Computing, Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, Reconnaissance
END USER
Prime Contractor
Pre
se
nc
e a
cro
ss
wh
ole
va
lue
ch
ain
Business Model for the Supply ofDefense Systems and Solutions
Systems of SystemsArchitect and Integrator
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Scalability
Modularity
Interoperability
Deployability
Supportability
Real-time
Connectivity
growing Project COMPLEXITY
NCW PROJECTS
Point Defence
& Security
Command
& Control
Systems
C2
Radar & EO
Sensors
The L&NS Division Business
Surveillance Systems
Radar
C4I Systems Communication
Systems
Radar
ICT
Area Defence &
Security Systems
CSI
ITC
Net
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S. A
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The Selex ES Business -
Land & Naval Systems Division
project’s characteristics
Complex Projects:
a challenging & risky environment
Risk Management in L&NS Division
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The evolution of Business Domainleads to a demanding environment
Evolution of the Market/Customer requirements:
• fluid requirements and expectations
• integrated solutions delivery
• large number of stakeholders
• prime-contract approach
• limited budget
Evolution of Company Industrial leverages for value chain management:
• partnership and commercial
• system architecture and integration
• technology and products
• project management
• legal and contractual
• financial
TECHNICALcomplexity
MANAGEMENTcomplexity
Growing complexity and risks
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Product Life Cycle
Upgradingand/or Withdrawal
ProductionQualificationDevelopmentMarketing & Feasibility
Support & Services
ProductionDesign &
DevelopmentBid Prep. and Negotiation
Marketing Support & Services
ProductionDesign &
DevelopmentBid Prep. and Negotiation
Marketing
Project Life Cycle
Support & Services
ProductionDesign &
DevelopmentBid Prep. and Negotiation
Marketing
Risks Assessment
over lifecycle,
starting from the
Bid phase,
taking into account
the “V” process
Risks Assessment
over lifecycle,
starting from the
Bid phase,
taking into account
the “V” process
051 021
F R EM M - C M S
RI SK FALL BACK PLAN REPORT( PIANO DI RECUPERO SUI RI SCHI DI PROGET T O)
PROJECT : 051 021
PR O JE CT : CO R : T. ST Y LE SIP T L ea de r/ PM :
R ISK ACTI ON REPORT
(RAPPORT O DI INT ERVENT O SUI RISCHI DI PROGET TO)
FR E MM - CM S
Risk RegisterRisk Register
Multiple levels of
responsibility
involved
Multiple levels of
responsibility
involved
Multiple “gates”
to be achieved
whilst minimising
the domino effect
of risk impact
Multiple “gates”
to be achieved
whilst minimising
the domino effect
of risk impact
Technical Risks arise along the project/product lifecycle
TECHNICALcomplexity
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Product Life Cycle
Upgrading
and/or WithdrawalProductionQualificationDevelopment
Marketing &
Feasibility
Support & Services
ProductionDesign &
DevelopmentBid Prep. and Negotiation
Marketing Support & Services
ProductionDesign &
DevelopmentBid Prep. and Negotiation
Marketing
Project Life Cycle
Support &
ServicesProduction
Design &
Development
Bid Prep. and
Negotiation Marketing
051 021
F RE M M - C M S
RISK FALL BACK PLAN REPORT(PIANO DI RECUPERO SUI RISCHI DI PROGET T O)
PROJECT : 051 021
PR OJ EC T : CO R : T . S TY L ESI PT Le ad er /P M :
RISK ACTION REPORT
( RAPPORT O DI INT ERVENTO SUI RISCHI DI PROGET T O)
FR EM M - CM S
Risk Register
TECHNICALcomplexity …enhances
in Large Systems
environment
The technical environment of a System of Systems project
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The management environment of aSystem of Systems project
CUSTOMERContractual, Technical,
Operational Dpts, Quality, …….
PARTNERSand
SUBCONTRACTORS
PRIMECONTRACTOR
Robust Project & Risk Management approach needed
Large number of stakeholders
Large number of resources (in house
and outside)
Delivery of technical and
financial
performances
Limited budget (Cost&Time)
MANAGEMENTcomplexity
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The Selex ES Business -
Land & Naval Systems Division
project’s characteristics
Complex Projects:
a challenging & risky environment
Risk Management in L&NS Division
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Coping with Risk Complexity
Risk Management Organisation
Mature Process and Methodology
Individual approach
Risk Manager
role Integrated supporting tools
TECHNICALcomplexity
MANAGEMENTcomplexity
Integrated Project Team(IPT)
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S. A
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dRisk Management
Organisation
Project Risk Management• Project/Product Risks throughout LifeCycle
• Risk Analysis & Reporting
Risk ManagementMajor Programmes
Department
Linesof
Business
Staff & Support
Departments
CentralOperationalDepartments
IPTs environment
Risk
Manage
r
role
Risk Manager
role
Risk Manage ment Organisation
Top Management
L&NS Division Management
Risk Office• Process and Methodology
• Cross Projects Risk Analysis
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• At WBE level: focus on Risks and Actions
• At Project level: overall Risk trend
• In order to respect the budget (in terms of costs and milestones date)
Overall Risk Managementapproach
Inside the IPTs:Project Risk Management
At Division level:Risk DataBase
Analysis and Reporting
At Division/Top Management level:Contingency Management
05 102 1
RISK F AL L BACK PL AN REPORT( PI A NO DI R E C UP E R O S U I R IS C H I D I P R OGE T T O)
0 5102 1
( K€) (K €) (K€ )
1 1 27 -lug -06 PR OP OS TO 6.3 3 6 01 /02/ 08 H AT FO C A SW 30 /04 /12 30/0 4/1 2 Y ES
2 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.3 3 6 02 /01/ 07 C DR 28 /02 /08 28/0 2/0 8 Y ES
3 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.3 2 4 01 /09/ 10 F AT FO S G P# 5 30 /09 /20 30/0 9/2 0
4 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.3 2 6 30 /04/ 07 F AT FO C A SW 30 /04 /12 30/0 4/1 2 Y ES
5 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 5.2 2 4 28 /02/ 08 F AT FO C A SW 30 /04 /12 30/0 4/1 2 Y ES
6 1 13 -se t-06 PR OP OS TO 5.3 2 6 01 /06/ 09
R ilas cio Re leas e
31 /07 /10 31/0 7/1 0 Y ES
7 1 13 -se t-06 PR OP OS TO 5 2 4 01 /02/ 08
8 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 5.1 1 2 01 /05/ 10
9 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.2 2 4 01 /03/ 09 F AT FO S G P# 5 30 /09 /20 30/0 9/2 0
1 0 1 13 -se t-06 PR OP OS TO 5.2 2 4 01 /02/ 08 H AT FO C A SW 15 /12 /11 15/1 2/1 1
1 1 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.1 1 2 01 /03/ 09
1 2 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.4 2 4 01 /03/ 09 01 /01 /10 01/0 1/1 0
1 3 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.1 2 4 01 /10/ 09 H AT FO C A SW 30 /04 /12 30/0 4/1 2
1 4 1 15 -se t-06 PR OP OS TO 5 1 2 01 /02/ 09
1 5 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.1 2 4 01 /02/ 08
1 6 1 15 -se t-06 PR OP OS TO 5.3 1 2 30 /09/ 06 15 /12 /10 15/1 2/1 0
1 8 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.1 2 4 03 /08/ 06
P rim a F AT SW
01 /11 /09 01/1 1/0 9 Y ES
Ext ra c osti pe r la defi nizi one , qu alif ica e pr odu zio ne
del la M ulti Fun ctio na l Co nso le V. Ma nde se
Mo dific he al C MS a s egu ito dell 'acc etta zio ne d ella
doc um enta zio ne di p roge tto e d ella Va luta zion e V. Ma nde se
Nec ess ità di u n a ggio rna me nto Tec nol ogic o V. Ma nde se
Rio rga nizz azio ne del la s ocie tà D AT AM AT R. Ve rone si
Pro lun gam ent o a ttivit à a bor do R. Ve rone si
Ma nca nza di r isor se chia ve o co n s kill ade gua ti p er le
fas i di imp osta zio ne d el p rog etto A. Ne ri
Ri sk T itle R isk Ow ne r
Imp atti da ma nca to c ons olid ame nto Ho rizo n/N UM A Ner i
(R A PP O RT O D I V A LU TA Z IO NE D E I R IS CH I DI PR O G ET TO )R IS K A SS E SS ME NT R E P OR T
Rila vor azio ne del SW pe r ag gio rna men to d ella A. Ne ri
Rila vor azio ni/m od ifich e a lla funz ion alità (A SW ) An ti-
Sub sur fac e W arfa re di n uov a re aliz zaz ione A. Ne ri
Ral lent am ento de i flu ssi info rma tivi dur ant e la fas e di
pro gett o e rea lizz azio ne del sist ema do vut o al la R. Ve rone si
Mi lest one
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no . St atus
05 102 1
RISK ACT ION REPORT(R A PP OR TO DI IN T E RV E N TO SU I R IS C HI D I P R OGET T O)
Risk Manager
1.1 .1 1. 1.2 1 .1.3
1. 1
1.2 .1 1. 2.2 1 .2.3 1.2 .4
1.2
1. 3.1 1 .3.2
1.3
1
1. 1
1. 2
1. 3
1.3.1
1.3.2
1. 1
1. 2
1. 3
1.3.1
1.3.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
6 9.5 13 16.5 20
RiskRiskRiskRiskRegister
Register
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Archive
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RiskRiskRiskRiskRegister
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Archive
Contingencies are allocated andhandled centrally by the Division/Top
Management, on the basis of theproject’s overall risk trend
• Provide different views on a project’s risk profile
• Find commonalities among business areas, products, project classes (cross risks), impacting on groups of projects, to define cross actions
Risk Register
• Collect and track risks history
• Share information at LoB and Division level• Make possible risk data re-use
IPT
Risk
Manage
r
role
Risk
M anager
roleMature Process
and Methodol ogy
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Risk
Risk
Risk
Risk
Planned Route(Time, Cost, Performance)
ActualRoute
The Risk Manager acts as a ”Navigator”, supporting the Project Manager (”Skipper”) and the Team to maintain the project route
• Sensor of initial signs of potential project failure , starting from bid phase
• Anticipation and simulation of possible
future risk scenarios
• Timely Action Plan definition (based on
experience and historical data analysis)
Individual approach:Risk Manager Role in the IPT
T0
Risk Manage
r
role
Risk
Manag errole
Individual approach
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• Systemic vision, continuously adapting viewpoints during the life of the project
• Simulation of possible future risk scenarios in
the short term (Tactical view) and medium-
long term (Strategic view)
• Maintain very short term Action Plans as drivers for project redefinition and change
Planned Route(Time, Cost, Performance)
ActualRoute
Risk
Risk
Risk
Risk
In agile environments, the Risk Manager acts as an ”Explorer”,supporting the Project Manager and the Team to imagine the project route
Individual approach:Risk Manager Role in the IPT
T0
Risk Manage
r
role
Risk
Manag errole
Individual approach
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™
Max 1 ,1
Min 0 ,0
0
0 ,2
0 ,4
0 ,6
0 ,8
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0 0 ,5 1 1 ,5 2Va lue s in M€
ContingencyBasel ine ‘09Basel ine ‘09 May ‘09May ‘09 September ‘09September ‘09
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Risk Register / RBS0 5102 1R IS K FA LL B A CK P L AN R E PO R T
( PIA N O DI RE C UP ER O SU I RIS C HI DI P RO G ET TO )
0510 21
(K €) (K€ ) (K€ )
1 1 27-lu g-06 PRO POS TO 6 .3 3 6 01 /02/ 08
2 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .3 3 6 02 /01/ 07 CD R 28 /02/0 8 2 8/02 /08 YE S
3 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .3 2 4 01 /09/ 10
4 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .3 2 6 30 /04/ 07
5 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 5 .2 2 4 28 /02/ 08 FA T FO C AS W 30 /04/1 2 3 0/04 /12 YE S
6 1 13-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 .3 2 6 01 /06/ 09
Ril ascio Rel ease
31 /07/1 0 3 1/07 /10 YE S
7 1 13-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 2 4 01 /02/ 08
8 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 5 .1 1 2 01 /05/ 10
9 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .2 2 4 01 /03/ 09
10 1 13-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 .2 2 4 01 /02/ 08
11 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .1 1 2 01 /03/ 09
12 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .4 2 4 01 /03/ 09
Pri ma F AT H W
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14 1 15-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 1 2 01 /02/ 09
15 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .1 2 4 01 /02/ 08
16 1 15-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 .3 1 2 30 /09/ 06
Ins tallaz ione FOC
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Mod ifiche al C MS a seg uito dell'a ccet tazio ne d ella docu men tazio ne d i prog etto e de lla V aluta zion e
Ope rativa da p arte del Clien te (M MI)
V . Man des e
Riorg aniz zazio ne d ella socie tà D ATA MAT R . Ver ones i
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(R A PPO R TO DI VA LU TA ZIO NE D EI R IS CH I D I PR O GE TTO )RIS K AS SE SS M EN T R E PO RT
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prog etto e rea lizza zione del siste ma d ovut o all a R . Ver ones i
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Pr edic ted
St art D ate Pla nne d R evis ed
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no. S tatus
0 5102 1
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1. 1. 1 1.1 .2 1. 1. 3
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1. 2. 1 1 .2 .2 1. 2. 3 1 .2 .4
1. 2
1. 3. 1 1. 3. 2
1 .3
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FE R RA N T E PI NO - BU A T
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M€
D ata ini zio / fi ne: Mar . ’03/ Gen. ‘15 Gar anzia: Apr . ‘16
C osti t ecnici a fi nir e: al 31/12/ 08: 16,9 M€; al 30/ 06/09: 18,5M €
A vanzament o al 30/ 06/09: 4%
R ischi osit àr esidu a
• Max: 2, 1 M €
• Most Li kel y: 1,1 M€
• Cont ingencyr esidue: 0, 8 M €
Hi ghli ght s
E’ auspi cabil e una pi anif icazione int egrat a f ra il BPP
“Nuovi Cent r i” e quel la del progr amm a al fi ne di evi denziar e l e eventual i crit ici tà in tempi ut il i per
impl ement are opport une azi oni di r ecupero.
Miles tone Risk ines s
N
Ml t da c o n se g u ir e
Ml t no n r a gg iu n ta
Ml t ad el ev a ta c r iti ci tà d i sl itt am en t o (> 6 0%)
M lt a me di a c rit ic ità di s lit tame n to ( 40% ÷6 0%)
I n ci de n z a su va r ia zi on e p r of iloN%
M os t L ik el y to ta le
N° Ri sc h i at tiv i
Co n ti ng e n cy
N
Ml t da c o n se g u ir e
Ml t no n r a gg iu n ta
Ml t ad el ev a ta c r iti ci tà d i sl itt am en t o (> 6 0%)
M lt a me di a c rit ic ità di s lit tame n to ( 40% ÷6 0%)
I n ci de n z a su va r ia zi on e p r of iloN%
M os t L ik el y to ta le
N° Ri sc h i at tiv i
Co n ti ng e n cy
Effective supporting tools:
Identification Assessment Mitigation
Review
connectkeep memory
analyze and synthesize
share
59%63%
57%
8%
8%
9%
33%29%
34%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
B aseline '09 May '09 August '09
Risk Assessment
Num
ber
ofO
pen
an
d O
ccu
rre
dR
isks
Risks with “Medium” or “High” Ri sk Factor without actions
Risks with “Low” Risk Fa ctor wi thout action s
%Risks with actions d efin ed
Residual Risk exposure vs Risk Regi ster
9,2 M€ 11,2 M€ 11,2 M€Acti ons neve r
def ine d
Act ions c los ed
wit hres idualRisk expos ure
2 2
3 0
5 2
4 M€ 0,5 M €
36% 5%
Nu
mb
er
of
Ris
Ks
59%63%
57%
8%
8%
9%
33%29%
34%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
B aseline '09 May '09 August '09
Risk Assessment
Num
ber
ofO
pen
an
d O
ccu
rre
dR
isks
59%63%
57%
8%
8%
9%
33%29%
34%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
B aseline '09 May '09 August '09
Risk Assessment
Num
ber
ofO
pen
an
d O
ccu
rre
dR
isks
Risks with “Medium” or “High” Ri sk Factor without actions
Risks with “Low” Risk Fa ctor wi thout action s
%Risks with actions d efin ed
Residual Risk exposure vs Risk Regi ster
Risks with “Medium” or “High” Ri sk Factor without actions
Risks with “Low” Risk Fa ctor wi thout action s
%Risks with actions d efin ed
Residual Risk exposure vs Risk Regi ster
9,2 M€ 11,2 M€ 11,2 M€Actionsnever
defined
Actionsclosed
withresidualRisk exposure
2 2
3 0
5 2
4 M€ 0,5 M €
36% 5%
Nu
mb
er
of
Ris
Ks
•Technical Process improvement
•Test Bed facilities
•Technical Process improv ement
•Test Bed facilit ies
Custo mer
Management
Suppliers
•Integration
•Specif ic
Contractual
Obligations
•Fast Prototy ping
•Professional
Adv ice
•Product
Investment
Policy
•Integration
•Specific
Contractual
Obligations
•Fast Prototyping
•Professional
Advice
•Product
Investment
Policy
•Partnership
•Back to Back
Solutions
•Local S ourcing
•Partnership
•Back to Back
Solutions
•Local Sourcing
•Specific
Product ion
investments
•Manufacturing
Quality
Improvement
•Specific
Production
investments
•Manuf acturing
Quality
Improvement
Others
En gineering
Production
Technology
•Life Cycle Management
•CMMI
•Life Cycle Management
•CMMI
•Specific R&D Investments•Specif ic R&D Investments
•Technical Process improvement
•Test Bed facilities
•Technical Process improv ement
•Test Bed facilit ies
Custo mer
Management
Suppliers
•Integration
•Specif ic
Contractual
Obligations
•Fast Prototy ping
•Professional
Adv ice
•Product
Investment
Policy
•Integration
•Specific
Contractual
Obligations
•Fast Prototyping
•Professional
Advice
•Product
Investment
Policy
•Partnership
•Back to Back
Solutions
•Local S ourcing
•Partnership
•Back to Back
Solutions
•Local Sourcing
•Specific
Product ion
investments
•Manufacturing
Quality
Improvement
•Specific
Production
investments
•Manuf acturing
Quality
Improvement
Others
En gineering
Production
Technology
•Life Cycle Management
•CMMI
•Life Cycle Management
•CMMI
•Specific R&D Investments•Specif ic R&D Investments
130Integrated
Project Teams
500Users
1600Active
Risks
100 Parameters for
each Risk
Major
Figures 5300Risk
Sheets
Risk M an age
r
role
R isk
Managerrole I ntegrated supporting tools
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0
0 .1
0 .2
0 .3
0 .4
0 .5
0 .6
0 .7
0 .8
0 .9
1
0 1 0 20 3 0 4 0 5 0 60
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
6 9.5 13 16.5 20
Project Risk Profile (Costs):
S Curve on possible additional costs vs.
project estimates to completeMitigation / Recovery Plan to reduce Risks
impact on Project
Project Risk Profile
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
LUISON ERA LDO
- B UAT47 4 3 20 - 40% Med io
SA T A rea
Sh uqrah1 0.11.09 09 .0 1.10
BODIN DE
CHAT E LA RD
ENRICO - B UAT
45 0 3 00 - 80% A ltoS AT a rea
Sh uqrah1 0.11.09 09 .0 1.10
MOLINARI
MA SS IMIL IANO -
COLE
45 0 2 00 - 60% A ltoSA T A rea
Sh uqrah1 0.11.09 09 .0 1.10
BODIN DE CHAT E LA RD
ENRICO - B UAT
50 0 3 00 - 10 0% Med ioS AT A rea K ho r
Umay ra h1 2.04.10 12 .0 5.10
M AIME RI
MA URIZIO -
P ROC
32 0 1 60 - 70% A ltoSA T A rea
Sh uqrah1 0.11.09 09 .0 1.10
Co mmitte d
Co st
Risk Owne r -
B.U. /F un ction Ma x
Co st
Mo st
L ik ely
Cos t
Ris k Va lueRis k
Fac tor
(L eve l )
P rob a-
b il i ty
(%)
M iles ton e
affected by the
Risk Oc currin g
Mi lesto ne Date
P la nn ed Rev is ed
0,3 2
0 ,36
0 ,42
0,43
0,461
2
3
4
5
Risk Register / RBS0 5102 1
R IS K F AL L B AC K P LA N R EP O R T(P IAN O D I R EC U PE R O S U I R IS CH I D I PR O GE TT O )
0510 21
(K €) (K€ ) (K€ )
1 1 27-lu g-06 PRO POS TO 6 .3 3 6 01 /02/ 08
2 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .3 3 6 02 /01/ 07 CD R 28 /02/0 8 2 8/02 /08 YE S
3 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .3 2 4 01 /09/ 10
4 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .3 2 6 30 /04/ 07
5 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 5 .2 2 4 28 /02/ 08 FA T FO C AS W 30 /04/1 2 3 0/04 /12 YE S
6 1 13-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 .3 2 6 01 /06/ 09
Ril ascio Rel ease
31 /07/1 0 3 1/07 /10 YE S
7 1 13-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 2 4 01 /02/ 08
8 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 5 .1 1 2 01 /05/ 10
9 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .2 2 4 01 /03/ 09
10 1 13-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 .2 2 4 01 /02/ 08
11 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .1 1 2 01 /03/ 09
12 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .4 2 4 01 /03/ 09
Pri ma F AT H W
01 /01/1 0 0 1/01 /10
13 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .1 2 4 01 /10/ 09 HA T FO C A SW 30 /04/1 2 3 0/04 /12
14 1 15-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 1 2 01 /02/ 09
15 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .1 2 4 01 /02/ 08
16 1 15-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 .3 1 2 30 /09/ 06
Ins tallaz ione FOC
15 /12/1 0 1 5/12 /10
18 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .1 2 4 03 /08/ 06 Pri ma F AT S W 01 /11/0 9 0 1/11 /09 YE Sv. Man dese
Risc hio d i riva lsa e cono mica da p arte di O SN s u
Poss ibile sotto stim a de lle fu nzion alità nuo ve C MS
Mod ifiche al C MS a seg uito dell'a ccet tazio ne d ella docu men tazio ne d i prog etto e de lla V aluta zion e
Ope rativa da p arte del Clien te (M MI)
V . Man des e
Riorg aniz zazio ne d ella socie tà D ATA MAT R . Ver ones i
Man canz a di r isors e ch iave o con skil l ade guat i per le A . Ner i
R isk T itle Risk Own er
(R A PPO R TO DI VA LU TA ZIO NE D EI R IS CH I D I PR O GE TTO )RIS K AS SE SS M EN T R E PO RT
Rilav oraz ione del S W p er ag gior name nto della A . Ner i
Rilav oraz ioni/m odi fiche alla funzi onal ità (A SW) Anti -
Ralle ntam ento dei fluss i info rmat ivi du rant e la f ase di
prog etto e rea lizza zione del siste ma d ovut o all a R . Ver ones i
Mi lesto ne
A ffec ted b y theR isk Occu rring A ction Plan
Pr edic ted
St art D ate Pla nne d R evis ed
Risk
F acto r
Risk Valu eP roba -
bility
R isk
A reaR isk ID Da te
Issu e
no. S tatus
0 5102 1
R ISK A C TI ON R E PO R T( RA P PO RT O DI IN TE R VE NT O SU I R IS CH I DI PR O GE TT O )
1.1.1 1.1 .2 1.1.3
1.1
1.2.1 1 .2 .2 1.2.3 1 .2 .4
1.2
1.3.1 1.3.2
1 .3
1
1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3
1.1
1.2.1 1.2.2 1.2.3 1.2.4
1.2
1.3.1 1.3.2
1.3
1
Work Breakdown Structure
1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3
1.1
1.2.1 1.2.2 1. 2.3 1. 2. 4
1.2
1. 3. 1 1. 3. 2
1.3
1
Cost Breakdown StructureI D Nom e att iv ità
1 Prog ett o SW C MS l ig ht
2 I nizio cont rat t o
3 Svi l uppo SW
4 SW Specif i cati on Requir em ents
5 Pr eli mi nary D esign Rev iew
6 Svi luppo Vi rt ual M achi ne
7 Svi luppo HM I
8 Svi luppo int er f acce con sist em a
9 Cr it i cal Desig n R eview
10 I nte grazion e
11 I ntegr azione sist em a H W
12 I ntegr azione m oduli SW
13 Fact or y Acceptan ce Test
14 Del i very e In stal l azio ne
15 Del iv ery sit o Cl ient e
16 I nstal lazi one
17 Si te Accept ance Test
18 Gar anzia
19 Fi nal syst em Accept ance
20 End of C ontr act
05/06
29/ 09
23/ 02
05/ 06
23/ 07
15/07
29/ 07
M G L A S O N D G F M A M G L A S O N D G F M A M G L A S O N
Semes tr e 1 , 2008 Seme str e 2, 2008 Sem est re 1, 2009 Sem est re 2, 2009 S emest r e 1, 2010 S emest r e 2, 2010
GANTT / Milestone Plan
Project Risk Analysis(Montecarlo Simulation)
Regression Coefficient on major cost impact
Monitoring Risk Profile throughout project life
Feb- 09 M ar- 09 Apr- 09 M ag- 09 G i u- 09 Lug- 09 Ago- 09
data
Set - 09
Critical Design Review
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
Pro
ba
bil
ity
Project Risk Profile (Schedule):
Actual (no Montecarlo):Risk Profile vs Leading Milestones(Burn-down curve)
To be experimented (Montecarlo analysis):S Curve on Critical / Leading Milestones
Evaluation of Risks Impact vs Milestones(Risk on Milestone Analyzer (RoMA),new algorithm - patent application filed)
Lug-09 Ott-09 Gen-10 Apr-10 Lug-10 Ott-10 Gen-11 Apr-11
data
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
Probability
Site Acceptance
Test
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0,3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0,2 1 0, 20 0 ,40 0,6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0,1 7 0, 16 0 ,32 0,4 5 0 , 5 0 , 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0,1 5 0, 14 0 , 2 0,3 1 0, 42 0 ,11 0, 2 0 , 4 0 , 3 0
0, 1 0 , 1 0 ,15 0,2 8 0, 33 0 ,08 0, 14 0, 29 0 ,22 0, 3
RISKS
M I L
E S T O N
E
m
j
Risk M an age
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Effective Reports for Risk Review:
The Project Risk Dashboard
Project Risk Register Summary
Economic Risk Profile
and Contingency
coverage
Project Top Level
M ilestones(“Way Points”)
Top Five Risks and Mitigation Actions with relevant Progress
Short term
Tactical View
Synthesis
Project Risk Overview
Medium / Long term
Project Risks and Actions Overview
Risks on M ilestones
Traffic Light
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Pro
jec
t R
isk
Va
lue
Total ProjectRisk Value
Schedule Risk Profile
Project Lifecycle and main Milestones
Effective Reports for Risk Review:
The Project Schedule Risk Profile
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Effective Reports for Risk Review:The Project Schedule Risk Profile
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Risk Manager
Tools way ahead:TERRA Module for Risk Sharing
with Partners and Customer
CUSTOMERContractual, Technical,
Operational Dpts, Quality, …….
PARTNERSand
SUBCONTRACTORS
Web access (protected link)
Contract WBSand Milestones
AdaptableRisk Sheet
AdaptableProcess Steps
share ™
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In summary… the Gain !
Management of risks along the whole lifecycle,
(with tactical & strategic view), starting from the
bid phase
Proactive anticipation of possible risks and early
warning of risks impact on project milestones
Effective Action Plans ahead of time and also
shared with Partner/Suppliers and Customer
(joint risk management)
Supporting a distributed Risk Management over
the whole Value Chain
Systemic vision, continuously adapting
viewpoints during the life of the agile projects
Projects Risk Knowledge growth within the
Company (lessons learned reuse)
A proper approach for Risk Managementand in the Risk Manager Role
can make the difference within IPTs, in terms of:
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Selex ES S.p.A.
Via Tiburtina Km 12.400
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